It’s not exactly news that I’ve got BludgerTrack going to the extent of running leadership trends, which I launched about a month ago, but under the circumstances (and for the want of much else to blog about, which I’ll get to shortly) I thought it worth drawing attention to again. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new sets of numbers this week, and while some have questioned the value of polling in high summer while holidays are being had and fires are being fought, they were interesting in their consistency: Newspoll recorded a 19% drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval while Essential had it at 14%, and both found Anthony Albanese opening slight leads on preferred prime minister.
All of this comes through loud and clear in the trends you can see on the sidebar (or in closer detail at the link below). Morrison’s post-election bounce was already coming off before the fires, but the trend has now become a freefall he must hope will reverse in fairly short order. By my reckoning, out of 673 preferred prime minister results published by Newspoll as far back as 1987, the incumbent has led in 519 (77.2%) and the Opposition Leader in 140 (20.8%), with thirteen (1.9%) being tied. However, this hasn’t offered much of a guide for the leaders’ future prospects. Malcolm Turnbull had an unblemished record, as did Kevin Rudd in his first tenure (Tony Abbott took the lead in the first two polls before the 2013 election), while John Howard trailed in early 2001 and for much of the second half of his first term, as did Paul Keating more often than not before the 1993 election.
Morrison can go all PR and bullshit as much as he likes and his MSM supporters can print the big headlines about how much money the government is investing in bushfire reconstruction etc. but this time the PR will not save him.
Out in the real world tens of thousands of affected people are living a much different reality.
Tick toc, tick toc.
“The end of the world is nigh. Repent your sins.” sounds much better as “The end of the world is nigh. Get high.”
p
We seem to have larger numbers than normal of some waterbirds – possibly refugees from other parts of the MDB where there is no water left.
Many of the birds killed were waterbirds… they were caught in the open. Their most fragile point, their wings, were smashed by the hail, leaving the birds unable to move but not yet quite dead.
These same birds had experienced several weeks of the world’s most toxic air quality.
But I suspect, without knowing, that few were fire refugees. The stories I am hearing about the fires and birds was that the fires often moved too fast and too hot and that many, or most, birds perished in situ or dropped dead out of the sky like so many feather dusters on top of fireys along the fire fronts.
just saw this laura tingle analysis of what the Government is anouncing/doing to assist those needing help following the recent Bushfire catastrophes.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1219424371237801985
Pics of a beaming Meghan, carrying Archie, with two dogs:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7909443/Meghan-beams-carrying-Archie-walking-dogs-Harry-boards-flight-Vancouver.html
Is Shorten nostalgia going to be a thing ?
#freebluey
Mavis @ #2298 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 12:33 pm
Bill Shorten is on a watch, learn and listen tour of Gilmore’s devastated areas today with Fiona Phillips. There is no big press contingent accompanying him.
Socrates:
Recently there have been instances in various grant programs were recipients have been notified of success but have at the same time been asked to embargo announcements until some media event. That is probably what has happened here (tawdry low grade behaviour, bot nothing more). If something else is going on there may be a problem.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 12:43 pm
just saw this laura tingle analysis of what the Government is anouncing/doing to assist those needing help following the recent Bushfire catastrophes.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1219424371237801985
The real Sleazy has come out from under his rock fairly quickly:
condones rampant corruption
bad-tempered
arrogant
smug
shameless
mendacious
suffers from religious delusions
secretive
evasive
abusive
torpid in policy
manic in political self-preservation
scientifically illiterate
hangs around with sleazy mates like Trump and Huston.
To which Tingle has added ‘snappy’.
Those who spent six years helping to Kill Bill and Sink Labor helped this very same Sleazy get in.
Those who seek to assassinate Albo and sink Labor are helping this very same Sleazy to stay in.
Is Frydenberg claiming that the Coalition managed the climate and the economy so that when the climate caved in they would have the ready to pay for some of the costs?
What?
Manu RajuVerified account @mkraju
Trump could be acquitted by mid week next week. The exact schedule is fluid and subject to change based on how the trial goes and how votes go, but it could look like this.
– Tomorrow: Debate on amendment(s) and vote on McConnell resolution
– Wednesday: Dem arguments
– Thursday: Dem arguments
– Friday: Trump team arguments
– Sat: Trump team, or senator questions
– Monday: Senator questions
– Tuesday: possible senator questions, vote on witnesses
– If no witnesses or documents subpoenaed, Trump could be acquitted by mid week next week
This is all based on the timing as detailed in the McConnell resolution, which also allows the Senate to vote on admitting the evidence gathered by the House during the impeachment inquiry, which is different than Clinton trial when it was allowed to be admitted automatically
Boerwar @ #2309 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 12:48 pm
I actually posted it because Tingle fleshed out what the current status of relief delivery was in response to the posts of others down thread regarding the slow and confusing roll out.
The Government’s key word atm is unprecedented.Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. But, it begs the question of why they weren’t prepared. I’m sure that plenty here have their own explanations for that!
Greensborough Growler:
[‘Bill Shorten is on a watch, learn and listen tour of Gilmore’s devastated areas today with Fiona Phillips. There is no big press contingent accompanying him.’]
He’ll be in his element. And it’s good to see him apparently over his obvious disappointment in May. I think the public will give him a lot of credit for this.
Shorten nostagia?
His only achievement was to lose the unloseable election.
Mavis @ #2298 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 12:33 pm
Yes, we’ve been in contact. Her office is trying to help, but not having any more success than anyone else.
Holden Hillbilly:
[‘Shorten nostagia?
His only achievement was to lose the unloseable election.’]
For my part, it’s not a case of nostalgia, more respect for the dignified way he accepted defeat. Compare him with Turnbull on the night he nearly lost the 2016 election, and when he was replaced by Morrison.
Holden Hillbilly @ #2314 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 10:02 am
NDIS?????
Boerwar says:
Monday, January 20, 2020 at 7:27 pm
…”Just back from a 4km walk through some of the worst hit areas in the ACT. Counted 46 dents in the bonnet of just one small car. Lots of smashed windscreens”…
…………………
Tried very hard not too, but I NEED to know.
Exactly what kind of wingnut aimlessly wanders around after a natural disaster counting hail dents in other people’s cars?
Greensborough Growler @ #2307 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 12:47 pm
Bill knows the area well. He holidays around here. But he won’t be anywhere near us.
Interesting that the question of Constitutional authority is being raised in relation to the sports Grants but completely ignored with the callout of Reserve Forces – it’s ok when it suits them.
Player One:
[‘Yes, we’ve been in contact. Her office is trying to help, but not having any more success than anyone else.’]
GG has posted that Shorten’s in Gilmore at the moment. It might be an idea to attempt to talk to him.
In any event, it’s difficult for your local member to do much given she belongs to a party that is in opposition.
I had noticed the aggressive blow back of late by various pro Sanders tweets I’d been reading of late. I thought it was due to the proximity of the opening ballots for the Democratic Candidate. But, this report indicates there has been a history of this from the Sanders camp.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-s-maga-supporters-twitter-bernie-bros-have-ugly-tactic-ncna1117901
poroti @ #2305 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 11:36 am
Yeah, that. GLONASS and GPS are both passive systems. Permissions and access controls don’t apply. Anybody who knows how to use them can use them.
It’s a stretch to say that Russia “helped” because Iran used GLONASS.
“She does that Millennial smug sass thing and lays it on with a trowel. ”
***
Contrasts nicely with the entitled, haughty Boomer in their latest ad.“
———————-
Modern liberals are so in love with the concept of racism that they adopt vacuous advertising terms and think that new “races” have mysteriously appeared in the past few years for them to obsess about .
Can we please be spared this stupid shit?
Good question; can Boomers stop trying to screw over Millennials by voting conservative? Signs point to no. 🙂
We must be due for an Australia Day ‘culture war’ dead rat to be thrown on the table.
Bucephalus @ #2320 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 1:15 pm
Dan Andrews asked Morrison for assistance and the PM stretched that to include other areas as well. However, it is definitely on the agenda for streamlining the federal government responses in the future. But, that will need state support and maybe even a change to the Constitution. but, as it stands, the Feds do not have the Constitutional powers to call out the ADF in these situations.
There seem to be a lot of articles about like this one:
Scott Morrison says the government is acting on emissions. Is it true?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/21/scott-morrison-says-the-government-is-acting-on-emissions-is-it-true
Gist is: most targets labelled economy destroying by Government, but presented as policies to reduce our emissions by opposition will be met according to government reports/estimates BUT our overall emissions are unlikely to move much at all over the next decade.
So that whole election thing was just a big old pack of lies and I believed them. You’d think I’d know by now that when you can see a politicians lips move: they are lying.
I still think Labor would be better – they might try to encourage emission reductions globally instead of fanning the flames but that could be just wishful thinking.
All lining up to praise her.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2020/01/21/sports-rorts-rich-clubs/
I see that on Twitter the question is being asked: Where is Bridget’s home? She spends a lot of time flying around from one property to another, apparently, charging taxpayers for every flight.
I watched a documentary on Aaron Hernandez at the weekend. It was well worth a look, particularly due to the legal concept of abatement, meaning that if you die (he committed suicide in prison) before the appeals’ process is exhausted (he was convicted of one murder and faced a further trial for two murders), your conviction is expunged – and his was, only to have it reinstated when the Massachusetts Supreme Court found that abatement ab initio is an anachronism, probably a relic of puritanism.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/aaron-hernandez-netflix-documentary-examines-how-brain-injury-may-have-influenced-behaviour/news-story/643d2387f81707e707477c5435f26c12
People no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life, survey shows
https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/2020-edelman-trust-barometer-shows-growing-sense-of-inequality/11883788
————-
Edelman Trust Barometer 2020:
https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2020-01/2020%20Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20Global%20Report_LIVE.pdf
Income inequality now affects trust more than economic growth
Capitalism in question across generations, genders and income groups
The Trivago girl is the best thing on TV.
Greensborough Growler @ #2247 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 1:17 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/16/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-donald-trump
Fifty-six per cent of the surveyed global population said capitalism in its current form does more harm than good in the world.
So why keep voting for extreme capitalist parties.
The USA. Straight jackets anyone?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51180452
Thousands of gun rights supporters have converged on the centre of the US city of Richmond to protest against tighter gun laws in the state of Virginia.
They have even have stickers saying “Guns save lives”
poroti
Here’s a summary of Survival Day events happening around Australia on January 26, 2020:
https://antar.org.au/issues/rethink-our-national-holiday/survival-day-events
Australia Day – Invasion Day – Most Australians celebrate Australia Day as the day Australia was founded. In contrast, Aboriginal people mourn their history and call it ‘Invasion Day’:
https://www.creativespirits.info/aboriginalculture/history/australia-day-invasion-day
Invasion Day 2020: Where to join protests and events in your city on January 26:
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/invasion-day-2020-where-join-protests-and-events-your-city-january-26
GG:
It does look to be a bit of a mess.
There are good reasons to make it difficult for the Commonwealth to (in effect) “deploy” the ADF within Australia without constraint. Standing armies being billetted etc…
It would be much less problematic to allow state governments to be able to deploy something (since no one State has the strength to go rogue), but there’s nothing at hand (except the ADF, which obviously can’t be deployed by a State, plus things like “state emergency services” which can’t be adequate for the current task)
In the USA the States can deploy their own National Guard, and it is also part of the defence reserve (separate from the actual forces reserves at the Federal level, but incorporated via Federal recognition). This seems to work quite well (in relation to the primary mission), and even extends to support for fire fighting for which training and equipment are required in advance (as opposed to the post fire recovery role, where the ADF can reasonably be expected to work out what to do)
Lizzie
It just shows they are all as corrupt as each other by backing McKenzie in. They all knew what was going on.
a r
Good question; can Boomers stop trying to screw over Millennials by voting conservative? Signs point to no.
—————
Millenials, Boomers, etc exist only in your mind!
They are as real as Librans, Geminis,…. i.e. not real at all. Indeed they are just more expansive “star signs”.
They are just another way of identifying groups as “others” so you can hate them.
This is how Morrison answers the question that isn’t being asked, too.
steve davis @ #2334 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 1:42 pm
I find this type of human behaviour fascinating.
It’s the same with climate change.
You see it here on PB with partisans attacking environmentalists in an effort to protect the ‘friends of coal’ cartel currently occupying the LibNat and Labor benches.
‘Not Sure says:
Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 1:12 pm
Boerwar says:
Monday, January 20, 2020 at 7:27 pm
…”Just back from a 4km walk through some of the worst hit areas in the ACT. Counted 46 dents in the bonnet of just one small car. Lots of smashed windscreens”…
…………………
Tried very hard not too, but I NEED to know.
Exactly what kind of wingnut aimlessly wanders around after a natural disaster counting hail dents in other people’s cars?’
Why are you being so rude? You could have just asked politely.
The discussion was about how many birds got killed or injured in the hailstorm.
The ding count was to give an indication of how densely distributed the hailstones were.
Based on the ding density count my conclusion is that birds caught in the open in the hailstorm had next to no chance of survival.
This was confirmed for me this morning. There are large areas under trees where it is impossible to set foot on the ground because of the depth of the intervening layer of chopped up leaves and branches stripped from the trees above.
There are certainly many hundreds and possibly some thousands of cars to be written off.
Insurance arguments for the coming set of premiums are going to be an interesting excercise in linking climate change directly to peeps’ pockets.
https://www.benjaminlcorey.com/could-american-evangelicals-spot-the-antichrist-heres-the-biblical-predictions/?fbclid=IwAR2w2Y-eNEtBm0tzaI_KHcXt281roMDa2rO00VsQRRWokMgikjotmyXX0V8
Ok, came across this on a facebook post.
Now, me not really into the whole “literal truther” thing to put it mildly….but….i acknowledge there are a lot of politically influential people and groups who are.
Also that people will always try to contextualise “prophecy” in terms of their own times and make it relevant by “imminence”.
Read it through to the end. Disturbing, but funny in a very black comedy way.
Premiums are going to skyrocket, thats if they insure people at all.
‘steve davis says:
Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 2:07 pm
Premiums are going to skyrocket, thats if they insure people at all.’
(a) I hope that they do skyrocket. It it the single most direct connection between climate change and people’s pockets.
(b) Uninsurable? The same thought, but more so.
RD
You could ask him why he is being so rude.
‘lizzie says:
Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 2:02 pm
This is how Morrison answers the question that isn’t being asked, too.
Peter van Onselen
@vanOnselenP
·
11m
The Treasurer defending the sports rorts scandal because the projects politically selected were “eligible”. What a joke. Eligibility isn’t remotely the point here. What about the meritorious, worthy projects rejected because of political rorting?!?! #auspol’
Indeed. The head of a soccer club was interviewed on RN this morning. He was not happy. His club was especially eligible in all ways except one: not a Liberal or Nationals target seat. I suspect that he will be making sure that the members know why they missed out.
Following up on Laura Tingle’s 7.30 pm comments referenced earlier by GG:
She also discussed the politics of bushfires etc. with Phillip Adams on LNL last night for about 20 minutes. This was followed by a discussion involving Adams with David Lindenmayer and Tom Griffiths on the politics and the future of bushfires and climate. Well worth listening to.
The program is repeated on RN this afternoon at 4.00 pm, or can be found here:
https://abcmedia.akamaized.net/rn/podcast/2020/01/lnl_20200120.mp3
Edited for spelling error