It’s not exactly news that I’ve got BludgerTrack going to the extent of running leadership trends, which I launched about a month ago, but under the circumstances (and for the want of much else to blog about, which I’ll get to shortly) I thought it worth drawing attention to again. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new sets of numbers this week, and while some have questioned the value of polling in high summer while holidays are being had and fires are being fought, they were interesting in their consistency: Newspoll recorded a 19% drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval while Essential had it at 14%, and both found Anthony Albanese opening slight leads on preferred prime minister.
All of this comes through loud and clear in the trends you can see on the sidebar (or in closer detail at the link below). Morrison’s post-election bounce was already coming off before the fires, but the trend has now become a freefall he must hope will reverse in fairly short order. By my reckoning, out of 673 preferred prime minister results published by Newspoll as far back as 1987, the incumbent has led in 519 (77.2%) and the Opposition Leader in 140 (20.8%), with thirteen (1.9%) being tied. However, this hasn’t offered much of a guide for the leaders’ future prospects. Malcolm Turnbull had an unblemished record, as did Kevin Rudd in his first tenure (Tony Abbott took the lead in the first two polls before the 2013 election), while John Howard trailed in early 2001 and for much of the second half of his first term, as did Paul Keating more often than not before the 1993 election.
Well “Brandon” looks like he’d fail the physical for Dad’s Army
I gather this “Trivago” thing is on the diot box?
P1,
I definitely think the boomer // post-boomer divide exists even if the line is a bit blurry.
To my mind there is a division between those who hit their mid-teens pre and post-Thatcher. The last year of the boomers is 1964. Thatcher came to power in the UK in 1979, meaning the youngest boomers were 15. The Gen-X’ers and later have reached mid-teens in the shadow of Thatcherism, Reaganism, Hawke-Keatingism and the related strains of neoliberalism.
C@tmomma says: Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 3:17 pm
phoenixRED @ #2402 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 3:15 pm
Player One says: Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 3:08 pm
Americans are just batshit crazy …
And Brandon looks like he is singularly unable to pass the Fitness test for the real Army.
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Qholl. There is one problem wth the change coming due to that. Generational divide. I heard the same thing nearly 20 years ago. The Coalition had a bleak future …….apparently The oldies died the young aged and turned into the same people they replaced.
Remember if you want the Rule of Law the LNP are so proud of boasting about there cannot be one law for politicians and another for the rest of us.
The rule of law only applies to others according to the Liberal party especially Unions.
poroti says:
Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 3:23 pm
Qholl. There is one problem wth the change coming due to that. Generational divide. I heard the same thing nearly 20 years ago. The Coalition had a bleak future …….apparently The oldies died the young aged and turned into the same people they replaced.
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Exactly, I well remember the talk about the conservatives being politically spent yet today we see a regressive reactionary form of conservative dominating several western countries.
Quoll
Fortunately, you are a self-solving problem.
You, too, will one day be seventy years old and you will almost certainly be more conservative than the Thunberg grandchildren who will then be yammering what a dead weight you are and why don’t you just die already.
And if Brandon actually tried to use his gun, he be like:
😀
Boerwar
More things change, the more they stay the same which is the remarkable thing about voting patterns in western countries.
poroti @ #2410 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 3:23 pm
What went wrong with this prediction was the sheer size of the boomer bulge, which is now – almost single-handedly – holding up the conservative vote. As the boomers age and naturally become more conservative, their sheer number is holding up the conservative vote at a rate sufficient to compensate for the fact that young people are turning away from the conservatives in droves.
Once the bulge has passed – i.e. the boomers start popping their clogs in significant numbers – this prediction will quite likely turn out to be true.
Provided there is anyone left to vote by then, of course.
Kronomex @ #2407 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 3:20 pm
Yeah, the ads are but the company was in the news today for breaching Consumer law 40000 times.
It is Greta Thunberg vs Donald Trump at climate-focused Davos gathering of economic elites: report
The starkly opposed visions of US President Donald Trump and Swedish teen activist Greta Thunberg on climate change will clash in Davos on Tuesday as the World Economic Forum tries to face up to the perils of global warming on its 50th meeting.
The four-day gathering of the world’s top political and business leaders in the Swiss Alps gets under way seeking to meet head-on the dangers to both the environment and economy from the heating of the planet.
Trump, who has repeatedly expressed scepticism about climate change, is set to give the first keynote address of Davos 2020 on Tuesday morning, on the same day as his impeachment trial opens at the Senate in Washington.
Around the same time, Thunberg will also attend a meeting at the forum, where she is expected to underline the message that has inspired millions around the world — that governments are failing to wake up to the reality of climate change.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/it-is-greta-thunberg-vs-donald-trump-at-climate-focused-davos-gathering-of-economic-elites-report/
Repetition of the argument – the insult actually – is no substitute for logic.
If I or any of the other male “boomers” here had any choice over when we were born, or our gender (or, according to the slag-off of the day, our sexuality) you might have a point.
But we don’t.
So why you continue to bring them up – while squealing like schoolchildren if anyone else references the same characteristics in yourselves – is not only a mystery, but also disgusting hypocrisy.
C@tmomma @ #2418 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 3:32 pm
Only 40000? Barely even worth pursuing. Westpac got away with 23,000,000!
Player One
The Boomers are holding up the reactionary vote but it is entirely possible that younger generations will still support conservatives particularly on economics or traditional values.
Australia was arguably more conservative in the late 60’s early 70’s with homosexuality illegal. No Medicare etc. even if unions were stronger.
It’s a pity Labor passed laws under Keating and now buys the you cannot be a militant union crap. The right certainly did a job copying the US corruption allegation model to undermine unions like they did using the Teamsters as the scapegoat. In Australia it’s the BLF.
Labor has a dismal record of defending unions letting the narrative become the framing of the right. When eventually Labor gets back in power that’s a reason Labor has to pass laws to ensure diversity of opinion in the country. Especially in regional/rural areas.
We know there is at least as much if not more corruption in business. That story needs to be told.
BB
Boy you got out on the wrong side of ht bed.
I don’t want to marry the women, and only red heads get a free pass.
Player One
Westpac hasn’t been let off with their judgement day coming.
P1
What went wrong with this prediction was the sheer size of the boomer bulge, which is now – almost single-handedly – holding up the conservative vote.
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Older people generally become more conservative. With advances in medicine you will be waiting a long time for the boomers to die. And by then the next tranche will be just as keen to protect their real next eggs or frightened by change that they cannot get their heads around. It’s what happens.
That doesn’t mean Labor or the left cannot win. It just means that waiting for the bulge to make its way through the snake ain’t going to do anything!
Where we live in the Gold Coast hinterland, we’ve been lucky so far. There was a fire which was fairly extensive in the Binna Burra area, caused not by arson but by negligence (a cig. butt). It destroyed the Binna Burra Lodge but other damage was limited by the swift response of fire-fighters. We had a smoke haze, but nothing like Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra. We’ve had thunderstorms, but they’ve been fairly mild, little wind, no hail, just heavy rain. Many other parts of Australia though look like disaster zones. I’ve never seen anything like it in terms of sheer scale. If there’s one good thing to flow from these crises is that at last, the electorate might catch on that there’s a causal link between global heating and extreme weather events. If this does not turn denialists into believers, nothing will, except maybe skyrocketing insurance premiums or being refused insurance. Insurance companies can play a part here by putting pressure on this apology of a government to take climate science seriously. The worst denialist of them all is Morrison himself, the moron who brought a lump of coal into the House. How can anyone believe that he’s had a sudden conversion to the scientific method? He hasn’t and he has no cred.
THIS is a retail politician!
https://twitter.com/AnnastaciaMP/status/1219473724585345024?s=19
P1 Erm 20 years ago it was the Boomers who were to deliver the change. The Flower Power ,Free Love liberal Boomers were to replace the old fuddy fuddy set.
Guytaur
It seems to have been a different form of conservatism in the 1950s and 60s with Menzies being happy to support welfare or Bolte happy to build public housing estates.
Another fascinating aspect of human behaviour is the boomer reaction to young activists like Greta.
Their discomfort and angst directed at someone merely concerned with the health of their environment is something to see.
Bushfire Bill @ #2420 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 3:34 pm
Lost your sense of humour, BB?
If you had read my post, you will see that I specifically didn’t blame individual boomers. However, the pernicious effects of the boomer bulge is a well-documented phenomenon. Even the Australian parliament recognizes it:
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp9899/99rp04#major
And how many “bold and courageous” politicians do we actually have? I can think of … well, none, actually.
Mexican
The people haven’t changed that much. Still as selfish and generous as before.
We have the same right using Christianity as a fig leave to suppress real tolerance and a return to Australia being a Quarry.
At some point they will attempt to dismantle Medicare to ensure the idea of the common good disappears. Back to being the colony of peasants serving the elite. We will just be a colony of either the US or China depending on world power games.
It’s why Labor needs to recognise the real fight it has. Labor needs a Whitlam with a real alternative of hope to present to voters. Make that selfishness work for Labor with free access to services. Neoliberalism has no future privatisation has been a disaster.
Player One says: Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 3:42 pm
And how many “bold and courageous” politicians do we actually have? I can think of … well, none, actually.
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For me – the day the music died
– in the US – for all his human failings – 22 November 1963
– in Australia – for all his human failings – 11 November 1975
poroti @ #2429 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 3:40 pm
It is the young that deliver change. But the boomers got rich too fast to do any real good, and now they simply outnumber the young.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner and a paper released this week highlighted the scary scenario that we could face if its economy nosedived.
On Thursday, PriceWaterCoopers chief economist Jeremy Thorpe released a paper on China Matters about what would happen to Australia if China’s economy experienced a “hard landing”, defined as a sudden decline in GDP growth of about 3 to 5 percentage points.
He pointed to modelling from Deloitte that predicted it could cost Australia’s national income $140 billion (7 per cent) and 550,000 job losses.
Reliance on the Chinese.
I don’t know whether it’s true or not but I have read that Morrisson lacks empathy and has engaged an empathy coach. It doesn’t seem to be working.
I think Brandon’s 50 cal is making up for something he doesn’t have body wise.
Mavis @ #2437 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 4:00 pm
It’s true. But his empathy coach was Peter Dutton.
Thunberg is no substitute for Wally.
Which reminds me.
Today is definitely a good day for protesting.
Off you all go.
‘Player One says:
Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 4:03 pm
Mavis @ #2437 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 4:00 pm
I don’t know whether it’s true or not but I have read that Morrisson lacks empathy and has engaged an empathy coach. It doesn’t seem to be working.
It’s true. But his empathy coach was Peter Dutton.’
hoohoo. Good one.
Player One:
[‘It’s true. But his empathy coach was Peter Dutton.’]
There’s no doubting your one-liners, but I thought Dutton’s tied up with a smiling coach, that’s why he hasn’t been seen since last year.
C@tmomma @ 3.32 pm.
Thanks for that. I haven’t watched the, to quote Harlan Ellison, glass teat since late 2009. Television had become so horrible and unwatchable by then that one night I unplugged it and put it outside on the nature strip. Never looked back. I also don’t intend wasting my time hunting down anything to do with Trivago on the ‘net.
Mavis says: Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 4:00 pm
I don’t know whether it’s true or not but I have read that Morrisson lacks empathy and has engaged an empathy coach. It doesn’t seem to be working.
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Maybe – Just maybe, once in a while – REALITY strikes home :
Tea Pain @TeaPainUSA
“Guy who says God sends natural disasters to punish gays has his home destroyed in a natural disaster.”
Tony Perkins, president of the anti-gay religious lobbying group the Family Research Council, had his home destroyed by the massive flooding ravaging Southern Louisiana this week.
Although no one wants to celebrate a person losing their home, the destruction of Perkins’ house isn’t without irony, considering that he’s claimed in the past that natural disasters are God’s way of punishing an increasingly gay-friendly world.
https://deadstate.org/guy-who-says-god-sends-natural-disasters-to-punish-gays-has-his-home-destroyed-in-a-natural-disaster/
15,000 insurance claims from Canberra’s hail storm.
phR
That proves the existence of the devil and of hell on earth.
A Chinese idea of fun:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-20/pig-forced-to-bungee-jump-at-chinese-theme-park/11881920
“15,000 insurance claims from Canberra’s hail storm.” Drat, as I scrolled down to that comment I thought for a split second it said, “15,000 ignorance claims from Canberra’s LNP…” Then reality reasserted itself.
phoenixRED:
[“Guy who says God sends natural disasters to punish gays has his home destroyed in a natural disaster.”]
The Lord moves in mysterious ways.
BTW, I’m reading with interest your extensive posts on the US polity. And even though the Senate won’t convict Trump, he can never expunge from the historical record that he’s been impeached.
Kronomex @ #2438 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 4:03 pm
Yes, now THAT was marketing genius. The wiggle the little finger ads.
Stuart
The Chinese laughed at it. The Americans would have shot it while it was on the rope.
“The gun he is seen with is a Barrett .50 cal anti-material rifle. The round (depending on load) can penetrate ¾” of steel armor from almost a mile away. ”
But…But…….you NEED this for shooting Bambi in Body Armor!!!!
Mavis says: Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 4:21 pm
phoenixRED:
BTW, I’m reading with interest your extensive posts on the US polity. And even though the Senate won’t convict Trump, he can never expunge from the historical record that he’s been impeached.
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love the little hands as well
Oppositions don’t win elections.
Governments lose them.
Sleazy is heading in the right direction.