With the excitement of the British election over and done with, now begins the extended nothingness of the silly season. A few points worth noting to keep things ticking over:
• A by-election looms in the Northern Territory for the Darwin seat of Johnston, not far out from a territory election scheduled for August 22. This follows the retirement of Ken Vowles, who has held the seat since 2012. Vowles served as a minister after Labor came to power in 2016, but was one of three members expelled from the party caucus in December 2018 over a feud with Chief Minister Michael Gunner. Labor held the seat with a 14.7% margin in 2016, an election at which it won the two-party vote 58.5-41.5. A heavy swing at the by-election seems inevitable, but the Country Liberal Party to this point appears to be dragging its heels on naming a candidate. Labor has chosen Unions NT general secretary Joel Bowden, a former Richmond AFL player who says he’ll be putting in a 100% team effort. Former Chief Minister Terry Mills’ CLP breakaway party, Territory Alliance, is running Steven Klose, who according to the Northern Territory News held the curious position of “political adviser at the Northern Territory Electoral Commission”. Also in the field will be Braedon Earley of the Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water Party.
• In other by-election news, there isn’t any. Confident speculation a month or so ago that Eden-Monaro MP Mike Kelly would be gone by Christmas has less than a fortnight to bear fruit, and there also are no visible signs of progress on suggestions that Mark Dreyfus and Brendan O’Connor would be pulling the plug in Isaacs and Gorton.
• Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on jockeying for the Liberal preselection in Warringah, where the party faces the difficulty of its branches being dominated by conservatives in a seat whose voters gave Tony Abbott the flick in favour of independent Zali Steggall. Included on the watch list are “NSW upper house member Natalie Ward, Menzies Research Centre manager Tim James, Downer EDI executive and former Scott Morrison staffer Sasha Grebe, as well as management consultant and NSW Liberal Party state executive member Alex Dore”, along with Manly barrister Jane Buncle. Mike Baird, former Premier and now senior executive at NAB, set the hares running when he declined on opportunity to seek the position of chief executive at the bank, but “several Liberal sources doubted Mr Baird would want to take the pay cut to go to Canberra”.
• A number of victims of the Liberals’ 2018 Victorian election disaster are identified in The Age as potential successors for Mary Wooldridge’s Eastern Metropolitan seat in the Victorian Legislative Council, following her retirement announcement last week: John Pesutto, Heidi Victoria and Michael Gidley, respectively the former members for Hawthorn, Bayswater and Mount Waverley.
poroti
When the Feds want something to be a national issue they make it a national issue. When they want to cost shift or blame shift to the states, it becomes a state issue.
IMO a good deal of the Federal surplus has been generated by cost-shifting to the states which, presumably, are making up the shortfall with state borrowings.
‘Twas ever thus.
In other words, not only is the Fed surplus the equivalent of noise in a trillion dollar economy, it is unreal in the sense that the total government sector of the economy (Feds+States+Territories) is still in the budgetary red.
lizzie @ #4618 Monday, December 23rd, 2019 – 10:38 am
lizzie @ #4633 Monday, December 23rd, 2019 – 10:53 am
And it’ll work a treat.
‘Big A Adrian says:
Monday, December 23, 2019 at 11:01 am
Albanese’s role at the moment is basically to be polite and be somewhat visible.
How anyone can expect him to be superman…’
That is the best way to assassinate Albanese. Make out that he should be a superman and then criticize him for failing to be a superman.
Tristo
A hung parliament would have been better for the UK long term than a Tory majority.
It would have been better for Labour long term too.
Labour was always between a rock and a hard place. The Liberal Democrats today are regretting forcing the election onto Labour.
Edit: The Liberal Democrats showed the results if the Greens had said anyone but Julia Gillard as PM.
poroti:
[‘….. PM reportedly palmed off the nation’s bushfire crisis as a “state issue”
With fires in WA,SA,Vic,NSW,Qld burning up about 35,000 square kilometers so far ! you’d think it might just qualify as being an issue that is a bit ‘national’ and not ‘just’ a State’ issue.’]
Morrison lacks the capacity to think laterally, based I think on his religious beliefs, where every word in the Bible is interpreted literally, no deviations permitted. It’s the same with policy. Once he’s made his mind up, nothing will sway him. If forecasters are right, though, he’ll be forced to act outside the box by accepting that the fires are a national issue. He’s so cocky that he thinks the holiday incident will be soon forgotten; it won’t, his prime ministership stained by an appalling lack of judgment.
Big A Adrian
How anyone can expect him to be superman and have Scomo on the ropes now is completely beyond me. Come next election, everyone, and I mean literally everyone, will have forgotton about the twitter frenzy caused by Scomo’s ill-timed vacation.
_____________________________________
I agree with the first sentence, but see my post above (or, better, Sean Kelly’s article in the SMH). If Morrison does not reinvent himself (the way Howard did) it will be remembered as emblematic of a terrible PM.
I suppose the people who are “too busy to follow politics” will also have missed all the warnings, so they’ll believe ScoMo.
Someone has suggested that our gov has less intelligence than a carrot. I suppose I’m not allowed to wish that a few of them could suffer a bit?
@guytaur
I agree fully with you about the British Labour party’s situation when it came to the issue of Brexit. Fortunately, that is something our Labor party does not have to face.
guytaur says:
Monday, December 23, 2019 at 11:08 am
…”A hung parliament would have been better for the UK long term than a Tory majority.
It would have been better for Labour long term too”…
Minority government’s are something greenies like, particularly when it is a weak Labor government that they can use to manipulate a greater say in matters than would be otherwise commensurate with their vote share.
Unfortunately, most greenies are stupid and don’t understand that this is only practical in the final term of a government.
Sometimes they campaign against a presumed incoming Labor government and it explodes spectacularly in their faces.
Those cheeky Germans!
Banner: “Democracy is the enemy of the people”
Boris: “Do you want a total (hard) Brexit”
I heard Norrison say that he has heard some people were “upset” by his absence.
No Scott. Not upset. Appalled!
Nath:
Belated thanks for your contribution!
Hi BK,
did you know Ron?
Guytaur, I think with Knights and Dames Labour was greatly aided firstly by a PM that was already perceived as out of touch and secondly by members of his own party openly ridiculing him.
Scomo is far more politically savvy and more likeable than Abbott.
Not Sure
Nah not true.
It was not Labor’s first term.
In fact many here have argued the Greens should have agreed with the CPRS to get it done in the first term.
For the LNP Marriage Equality was such an issue. They as the government were able to own the issue by taking it on their terms. Much as I hated their terms. It was enough to get it done.
Labor’s problem was they had nothing in the kit bag to show workers what Labor had done for them as the barrage of the right took hold. The whole you can’t act for the environment or you are against jobs narrative we are stuck in .
And BK, what is your assessment on how mopping up will go for the Cudlee Ck fire (not to mention the remaining active fires). I am stressed about that 30km flank of burnt ground only 10km to my N and NE should the wind turn unfavourable.
Big Adrian
The last few days say the opposite to me. A political savvy politician would not have gone on holidays for starters
guytaur says:
Monday, December 23, 2019 at 11:26 am
…”Nah not true.
It was not Labor’s first term”…
Um…
That’s exactly what I said.
“I see you soon at table surrounded by the family, ……. but it’s not your family”
Mavis
Given that his church thinks the End Times will be here ‘any minute now’ you can see why he considers our current conflagration small beer. Youse just wait until ya see the biggie hits. We’ll be getting postcards from ‘Raptured” Scrott.
lizzie @ #4654 Monday, December 23rd, 2019 – 11:17 am
Odd that, Labor has had a lot of experience wandering around the political wilderness….sigh
Not Sure
Marriage Equality happened after the first term of the LNP.
There are many issues that have been pursued in the second term. The Greens acted when they had power to do so. Before that they did not have power to demand Labor do something real.
Before that it was all Labor trying to be bipartisan.
Something they have never done with Medicare. They know the long term means you keep fighting on the issue. Thats why after Medibank was defeated Labor got Medicare in place.
They did not give up and throw Universal Health Care under the bus
lizzie says:
Monday, December 23, 2019 at 9:39 am
Ballantyne
There are so many who think they know the truth. So much ignorance. Unless the right wing media turns around, we’re going down the gurgler.
We’re 170 years into the global heating episode. The rate of change in surface temps is increasing, which means heating is accelerating. We’ve known about this since the 19th century, but nothing was done. We know far more now than was known even 40 years ago, and yet there is no relevant response. As a result, this episode will continue until at least the end of the 22nd century…..for another 180 years or longer.
Nearly all life on earth is at risk of extinction. We are both the authors of and witnesses to this destruction. And yet the best we can do is to argue among ourselves.
We are idiots.
@phbarrat tweets
No change to climate policy despite fires
Forever dealing in straw men: no one is directly linking climate change to a specific fire. What is his point exactly?
What a waste of space. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-change-to-climate-change-policy-as-pm-rejects-internal-split-20191222-p53m9i.html?btis
Guytaur
I don’t know why I expected that I might have a discussion with you and come out less confused than when it started.
I apologise.
Albanese presser now.
Speaking about John Cain.
Hey Mundo
What do you think Albanese should do today.
Not just general “he should go in hard”, “he shouldn’t let Morrison off”, but specific action.
Go on, you’re the tactical expert. Be specific. I’m curious.
Not Sure
Your assumption that only things can be done in the first term is wrong is my argument.
That comes from assuming you are putting in place unpopular policies.
Acting on Climate Change was never an unpopular policy. The Carbon Price was not an unpopular policy when Gillard agreed to do it.
It became an unpopular policy because of Abbott and allies attacks.
That would have happened if Labor had done it in the first term.
It is now speculation as to exactly how it might have been different. The only way Labor can test it is to do the carbon price without the fixed price period as its policy. It was Labor’s inability to fight the lie about tax that destroyed their campaign.
Not even Craig Emerson singing about Whyalla Wipeout cut through.
The demonisation of tax is at the root cause of that. Labor has to do something to stop that demonisation.
Economists are saying this right now and Labor can change the narrative about tax as long as it quotes the economists and runs a debt truck around the country
A pathetic stunt but as we have seen it works.
In the meantime Mr Albanese is on the right side of history linking Global Heating and bushfires. I am glad to see that is happening despite the coal boosters within the party
Edit: I would suggest running the Debt Truck around South West Sydney and Queensland
From a personal point of view. The Cain government delivered the City of Knox’s bicycle infrastructure (thanks to Steve Crabb), the rejuvination of Southbank and they had the vision to perform the ultimate traffic stopping stunt – Putting Grass down on Swanston St. 35 years later, Swanston is closed to traffic and is the thriving heart of the city.
The SMH hedging their bets as to how it will play out for Scrott. Top of the page headlines side by side.
,
Morrison’s Hawaiian sojourn won’t be the public relations disaster his critics hope
2 hours agoby Sean Kelly
.
BUSHFIRES
PM defends trip as parental ‘juggle’ while firefighters prepare to work through Christmas
Sweetest sound I’ve heard for a while: gentle rain on a tin roof – since 10pm last night, and still going.
We’re around at our friend Lou’s house, giving it a good clean and air in preparationfor her return on Boxing Day.
Lou is the neighbour whose stubbed toe turned into a life-threatening vascular emergency. She has been in Sydney for 8 weeks, in RNS hospital for 3 of them, and with family for the rest, while she had two operations. She has one operation to go: a vein transplant from her left leg to her right. Her circulation was so damaged by the infection, subsequent cellulitis, partial gangrene, blood clots, incorrect diagnosis and lackadaisical treatment that she is lucky to still have her leg, and maybe even her life.
We’ve been feeding her cat, who has turned half-feral and quite haunted-looking. We leave the food and water in the evening, sometimes seeing her, mostly not. Thankfully it’s been gone by the next day, every day, for for two months.
Today is a day of the dreaded vacuum cleaner. Lily has got the black cat’s eyes, widened with the sheer terror and effrontery of it. Two months of solitude and then this: strangers making loud noises, clattering about, and neither of them is Mum. It’s enough to make a cat resign her position in protest. Not that it’d do any good of course.
Lou is determined to be back, if only for a week or two, before her big surgery in January. Apparently it’s quite risky, at a projected 9 hours. So, at least we can air the place and clean up a bit for her.
In the meantime, it’s gratifying to see our local “Bushfire Risk” pointer set to “Low”, even if only for a day or so. May other pointers in other areas be set the same this week. Hopefully the religious nutbags around the country don’t claim this rain as a miracle brought on by the Divine Vessel, SmoCo’s return.
But nothing would surprise me in these unprecedented days.
@SBS News tweets
Losses from the Adelaide Hills bushfire continue to climb with 86 homes now confirmed destroyed, along with almost 500 other buildings. http://bit.ly/34JsFi5
I don’t think that Morrison is expecting the Rapture at any minute.
I think his god will allow him to enjoy his Miracle for a period while the White Righteous gain more power in the world until they dominate.
But I know nozzing.
@ChrisEgginton
· Dec 22
BBC report of hectares fire affected in Australia compared to California and Amazon. Wow.
@TripleJay58 tweets
Dear Journalists
There is absolutely no requirement to sit there and let Scott Morrison get away with lying and Gish galloping all over the place in response to your questions.
Watch and learn. #ThisIsJOURNALISM #auspol
https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1062706401804455937
Hey US media folks, here, I would argue immodestly, is how you interview a Trump supporter on Trump’s lies:
https://twitter.com/AJUpFront/status/1062691620934635521/video/1
I doubt we will have that till March.
With the two hottest and driest months of the year still to come.
Guytaur
All I was attempting to say, is that multi-term government’s are much more likely to have a lesser number of lower house seats in their final term than the first.
A final term is therefore the only time the Green’s should play their silly little games and assuming Labor was going to win based on a 51.5% Newspoll aggregate and campaigning against them in attempt to weaken their presumed majority was tactically idiotic.
I’m actually stunned that Di Natale managed to pass medical school, although I once employed a waitress in her final year of Med, who was incapable of learning how to take a table order for two people, so anything is possible.
Do they really believe they can cure illness?
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/morrison-defends-hawaii-trip-as-parental-juggle-while-firefighters-prepare-to-work-through-christmas-20191223-p53mcl.html
The comments are not getting any better for Smoko
It is Christmas, a time of good will and cheer. What to do ? I know lets tell a charity feeding the homeless to fark off.
.
Homeless charity cancels food and clothing service due to Gold Coast City Council decision
https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/1208836509052227585
Annual thanks to BK and assistants for the essential Dawn Patrol. 🙂
Not Sure
Oh ok. Fair enough. However Labor never had the numbers it needed because we have a different system in the Senate that lets a conservative minority override the concerns of the majority of the population that lives in urban areas.s
Partly compounded by bad Labor tactics in preference allocation with Family First getting its spot.
That was what really hamstrung Labor from 07 onwards. Without that balance of power for the conservatives Labor could have done as the LNP always does. Legislate its way and let the chips fall where they may.
Its one reason I see Multi Party Electorates as a way to fix this balance next time Labor is in power.
Make it part of the Republic push as constitutional change would have to happen to allow that.
In the meantime the reality is progressives have one hand tied behind their back because the entire system is set up to prevent too much change by excluding progressive voices in those rural and regional areas. I say exclude because we have only seen progressive issues raised out of those areas after years of neglect by the Nationals.
If there is a better way of addressing that other than Multi Party Electorates I am open to hearing about it.
laughtong says:
Monday, December 23, 2019 at 12:12 pm
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/morrison-defends-hawaii-trip-as-parental-juggle-while-firefighters-prepare-to-work-through-christmas-20191223-p53mcl.html
The comments are not getting any better for Smoko
___________________________________
Morrison has made a cynical assessment that a lot more people are not affected by the bushfires than are. Any other time of the year he might have got it right. I don’t he realises how many people’s Christmas holiday plans have been screwed up by the fires.
They have forgotten their job descriptions. All to often they either allow themselves to be, or are deliberately being, outlets for Coalition and Murdoch propaganda.
Personally, if a Morrison presser is full of lies and avoidance of any questioning, then it shouldnt be broadcast by the MSM. Let him post it on his social media.
Labor’s best plan of attack may be to get Scrott to do as many media interviews as possible.