Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another modest Coalition lead from the second poll in a new-look Newspoll series, which also finds Scott Morrison rated well for strength, vision and experience, but higher than he’d like for arrogance. Also featured: a quick early look at the ANU’s deep and wide post-election survey.

The second Newspoll conducted under the new regime of online polls conducted by YouGov records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, out from 51-49 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 42%, Labor is steady on 33%, the Greens are down one to 11% and One Nation is steady on 5%. Both leaders’ personal ratings are improved after weak results last time, with Scott Morrison up two on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 48%, and Anthony Albanese up two to 40% and down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-35 to 48-34.

Respondents were also asked to rate the leaders according to nine attributes, eight positive and one negative. Morrison scored higher than Albanese for the experience (68-64), decisiveness and strength (60-51) and having a vision for Australia (60-54), while Albanese had the edge on caring for people (60-55). There was essentially nothing to separate them on understanding the major issues (57-56 to Albanese), likeability (56-56), being in touch with voters (50-49 to Albanese) and trustworthiness (49-48). However, Morrison’s worst result was his 58-40 lead on the one negative quality that was gauged – arrogance.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1503. The Australian’s paywalled report of the results is here.

In other poll news, a uComms poll (apparently minus the ReachTEL branding now) for the Courier-Mail ($) suggests Queensland’s embattled Deputy Premier, Jackie Trad, is in grave danger of losing her seat of South Brisbane to the Greens. The poll shows the Greens on 29.4%, Labor on 27.5% and the Liberal National Party on 26.6%, with 10.4% undecided. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but this may flatter Labor given the LNP’s announcement that they would direct preferences against them. No field work date is provided that I can see, but the sample size was 700. The deficiencies of automated phone polls in inner city seats were noted by Kevin Bonham, among others.

UPDATE: In better poll news still, the results from the post-election Australian Election Study survey are available in all their glory, courtesy of the Australian National University. You can view the ANU’s overview of the findings here, but the real fun of this resource is that it allows you to cross-tabulate responses to 3143-respondent survey across a dizzying range of variables. The survey also includes demographic weightings that presume to correct for the biases introduced by the survey process. The survey also addresses a long-standing criticism by including a component of 968 respondents who also completed the 2016 survey, allowing for study of the changing behaviour of the same set of respondents over time.

Rest assured you will be hearing a great deal more about the survey going forward, but for the time being, here’s one set of numbers I have crunched for starters. This shows the primary vote broken down into three age cohorts, and compares them with the equivalent figures from the 2016 survey. This produces some eye-catching results, particularly in regard to a probably excessive surge in support for the Coalition among the middle-aged cohort – mostly at the expense of “others”. By contrast, the young cohort swung heavily to the left, while the boomers were relatively static.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

580 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Joanne Murphy @ #499 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:56 pm

    Greensborough Growler: actually “champ” I’ve been lurking & occasionally posting on PB for the past year now, so not that new. But yeah I can see how posting links to AFR articles hidden behind paywalls is really interesting and original advocacy.

    So, you think you can decide what others post and that your personal prejudices about sources of information should frame the content of every discussion? Good luck with that, champ.

    But, you’ll get on really well with P1.

    So, good luck on your PB journey.

  4. Boerwar

    One thing I do like about New Zealand is that if you want to risk your life by walking around in the crater of an active volcano, they let you do it.

    Given how insurance companies are a number of the tourists involved will be eternally grateful that they have this in NZ. It came in way back when it was realised that an automatic pay out was cheaper than the previous going through legal channels. In a couple of notorious cases a burglar who was injured “at work” got a pay out 🙂
    ————————————————————————

    ACC

    What we cover

    Our no-fault scheme covers everyone, including visitors, who are injured in an accident in New Zealand. It includes events that result in mass casualties. The scheme covers children, beneficiaries, students, if you’re working, unemployed, or retired.

    What is no-fault cover?
    No-fault cover means it doesn’t matter what you were doing when you were injured or who was at fault……………………………..
    https://www.acc.co.nz/im-injured/injuries-we-cover/what-we-cover/

  5. Greensborough Growler @ #501 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 8:02 pm

    Joanne Murphy @ #499 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:56 pm

    Greensborough Growler: actually “champ” I’ve been lurking & occasionally posting on PB for the past year now, so not that new. But yeah I can see how posting links to AFR articles hidden behind paywalls is really interesting and original advocacy.

    So, you think you can decide what others post and that your personal prejudices about sources of information should frame the content of every discussion? Good luck with that, champ.

    But, you’ll get on really well with P1.

    So, good luck on your PB journey.

    Stay Jo, it’s fun being picked on…:)

  6. GG: I am frankly bewildered by your off-topic segue. I can’t see how you formed that opinion from what I wrote. Perhaps you are just blessed with a particularly hyperactive imagination? But thanks for your good wishes as regards PB. I’m sure you’ll treat any post I might make in future in a fair and balanced way. Champ.

  8. The Brumby government said, a first world country does not let it’s towns run out of water.
    We got the north/south pipeline to supply water to Melbourne.
    We got the goldfield superpipe to supply water to Ballarat and Bendigo,
    We got the desalination plant
    We got the Wimmera channels replaced with pipes.

    The drought broke; Labor lost the election.
    NSW the Liberal government, prays for rail.

  10. I like that mundo has increased the frequency, always reminds me of this AFL saying…

    “Too much yardage between the goal posts.“

  12. Joanne Murphy @ #508 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 8:19 pm

    GG: I am frankly bewildered by your off-topic segue. I can’t see how you formed that opinion from what I wrote. Perhaps you are just blessed with a particularly hyperactive imagination? But thanks for your good wishes as regards PB. I’m sure you’ll treat any post I might make in future in a fair and balanced way. Champ.

    I’m sure this is your natural state.

    However,while I am whelmed by your interest in me and my posts I think it would be rather exciting for you and the other poster if you can explain your concept of this “Environment” thingy and how you think you can make it “better”. You might even cover things as to how your brilliant ideas might be implemented and how you think that might occur.

    Thanks, champ!

  14. frednk

    “NSW the Liberal government, prays for rail.”
    ——-

    Has the Productivity Commission studied which god is the most effective in answering prayers and which prayers are the most effective in getting its attention?

  18. It’s been a while, but for the benefit of Joanne Murphy and anybody else lurking, I repeat my election-night plea:

    PLEASE POST MORE OFTEN.

    The more people who post, the greater the diversity of opinion will be, and the less chance these comments sections will have of serving as little more than insular echo chambers which become so detached from reality that any prediction which acknowledges the possibility of results such as the one tonight is treated as rank treachery deserving of unrelenting mockery and excoriation. Power in numbers, comrades!

  21. Yeah, Jo, we love right on lefties telling us what basket cases those of us at least one degree to the left of you are. Such quality comment. We need more! 🙄

  22. Simon Katich says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 8:44 pm

    …”I reckon Not Sure will sleep soundly tonight”…

    I’m glad at least one person saw it before I was censored.
    I even went back and deleted most of the four letter words and mild support for the violent overthrow of dictatorial governments and re-saved it.

    Interesting that religious persecution and comparing working class people to nazis now acceptable, but telling someone they are an arsehole for thinking so is verboten.

    What an age we live in.

  23. Matt @ #477 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:28 pm

    @Guytaur,

    “ALL Labor has to do is convince voters there is economic life without coal.”

    With the 24/7 wave of disinformation actively fostered by the mainstream media, that’s kinda…challenging, to put it mildly. And Labor tried that in 2016, and again in 2019. They lost both times – and they got utterly trounced in Queensland both times. In NSW, Victoria, SA & Tas, Labor won more seats than the Coalition. Only in WA & Qld did the Coalition win more seats – and the Qld result was particularly lopsided. 23 for the Fibs to just 6(!) for Labor.

    If the Coalition are to be ousted, Labor have got to figure out how to erode their support in Queensland – otherwise, Qld gives the Coalition too much of an advantage to realistically overcome elsewhere. And that means not going balls-to-the-wall attacking coal, as you Greenies want to. It’s that simple.

    @Mundo:

    “It’s why so many here were completly blindsided by the May Scrottslide.”

    …The Fibs picked up two seats. Two seats, and now have a Parliamentary majority of…two seats. Out of a House of 150 seats. That is not any variation of a “landslide” worth calling one!

    Clearly my nomenclature has confused you. A Scrottslide is not a landslide.

  25. Joanne Murphy:

    Good to see you’re posting. It matters not an iota whether you’re new to this blog or have been posting for 15 years. Don’t be put off. Speak your piece.

  26. itsthevibe @ #519 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:40 pm

    It’s been a while, but for the benefit of Joanne Murphy and anybody else lurking, I repeat my election-night plea:

    PLEASE POST MORE OFTEN.

    The more people who post, the greater the diversity of opinion will be, and the less chance these comments sections will have of serving as little more than insular echo chambers which become so detached from reality that any prediction which acknowledges the possibility of results such as the one tonight is treated as rank treachery deserving of unrelenting mockery and excoriation. Power in numbers, comrades!

    You must be joking? The only thing “greater diversity of opinion” posted here has given us is day upon endless day of sniping, carping, go-nowhere, circular arguments that have been done to death 10 years ago at least, people endlessly posting their own ideological obsessions, and an end of days (months even) fixation on coal and energy, where the views shared have been the same that were posted years ago (even, amazingly by the same individuals whom one might think would’ve caught a clue by now that people weren’t listening to them then, and sure as heck aren’t listening to them now)! If anything screams “insular echo chamber”, I give you the Poll Bludger energy wars!!

  27. Jo, what you need to understand is that there are a bunch of Tories on here, consistently advocating extreme right wing ideology and posing as Labourites. Crankmomma and GG are just a couple of these Grouper knuckle draggers. I don’t take them too seriously, as they are still good for a chuckle.

  28. It should be pretty clear now that Labor have put all the Green-ware out on discount. They will no longer being stocking and promoting it. The Greens have been dumped.

    One of their claimed goals has been to ‘influence’ Labor….to draw Labor over their way. They have demonstrably failed in this. Rather, the opposite result has been achieved. The Greens have driven Labor away. This is an excellent development. Hopefully Labor will take it further and put the Greens next-t0-last on their HTVs in future. I look forward to the day when the
    Greens decide to dissolve themselves. They have caused immeasurable harm to this country and, in particular, to our ability to respond to global heating.

  30. The Malcolm of circa 2009 is with us tonight on Qanda 🙂

    It’s been a while he’s spoken publicly and forthrightly about climate change.

  33. There’s been only one COAG meeting this year? Together with a parliament that hardly sits, this is the very definition of a do-nothing government.

  34. Russia has been handed a four-year ban from all major sporting events by the World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada).

    It means the Russia flag and anthem will not be allowed at events such as the Tokyo 2020 Olympics and football’s 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

    But athletes who can prove they are untainted by the doping scandal will be able to compete under a neutral flag.

    Wada’s executive committee made the unanimous decision in a meeting in Lausanne, Switzerland.

  35. Confessions:

    That’s for sure, you’ve articulated the crux of the matter. I’m extremely bored with, for example, the Labor/Greens war. It’s repetitive, serving no useful purpose other than to bloat the ego of those who constantly agitate it. And without singling out two posters – okay, I will: RI and P1 – it’s pretty puerile stuff. On and on they go with no end in sight. That’s why I occasionally post tabloid material.

  38. Player One says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 12:47 pm
    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #232 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 11:47 am

    See you miss the point completely.

    Mining is not part of the solution.

    The solution comes from putting renewables and storage in place.

    Do that and there will be little demand for coal.

    You achieve the reduction in mining by making redundant the industries that support it.

    Wrong. Simply wrong. So wrong, in fact, that the UN issued an entire report pointing out that this thinking was not only wrong, but dangerously wrong.

    The claim here by P1 is false. The UN report does not canvas supply restraints in a context of falling prices for coal. It is concerned with the effects of supply restraint in a context of rising prices for oil.

    P1 is making disingenuous claims, as is their usual habit. There is no “output gap” in the coal trade. The market is glutted. Prices are falling below the cost of production, especially for remotely-located, poor-quality materials such as those found in the Galilee.

    The Green Tories will say anything if it affords a chance to sledge Labor. This is their gig.

  40. it’s time:

    [‘Mavis

    You underestimate. A couple of more posters are exceedingly boring when baiting others and repetition.’]

    You mean there are other boring twats. Let me think – no, I couldn’t be so cruel.

  41. Mavis says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 9:55 pm
    Confessions:

    That’s for sure, you’ve articulated the crux of the matter. I’m extremely bored with, for example, the Labor/Greens war. It’s repetitive, serving no useful purpose other than to bloat the ego of those who constantly agitate it. And without singling out two posters – okay, I will: RI and P1 – it’s pretty puerile stuff. On and on they go with no end in sight. That’s why I occasionally post tabloid material.

    I have been the image of restraint lately….have barely posted at all, notwithstanding the frequent provocations and temptations.

  43. Jones should’ve first directed this question on racial intolerance to Turnbull given he was on the African crime gang bandwagon along with his rightwing colleagues.

  44. RI:

    [‘I have been the image of restraint lately….have barely posted at all, notwithstanding the frequent provocations and temptations.’]

    That’s now no doubt the case. But when you were at the height of discourse, truly, cobber, it was over the top. I thank you for being candid.

  46. I think it’s time I reverted to a true blue Lib to provide more diversity. We do really miss posters like ML and Rhed who provided a range of discussion subjects. I fear we have become a touch in bred.

  48. This is gobsmacking hypocrisy by Turnbull. Wasn’t it him who ruled out a referendum to include indigenous Australians in the constitution? Here he is saying how disappointing it is!

  49. Fess

    Weird logic by Turnbull. Because he’s a Republican he believes that all citizens should have equal access to decision making so there’s no need for the Voice.

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