Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another modest Coalition lead from the second poll in a new-look Newspoll series, which also finds Scott Morrison rated well for strength, vision and experience, but higher than he’d like for arrogance. Also featured: a quick early look at the ANU’s deep and wide post-election survey.

The second Newspoll conducted under the new regime of online polls conducted by YouGov records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, out from 51-49 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 42%, Labor is steady on 33%, the Greens are down one to 11% and One Nation is steady on 5%. Both leaders’ personal ratings are improved after weak results last time, with Scott Morrison up two on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 48%, and Anthony Albanese up two to 40% and down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-35 to 48-34.

Respondents were also asked to rate the leaders according to nine attributes, eight positive and one negative. Morrison scored higher than Albanese for the experience (68-64), decisiveness and strength (60-51) and having a vision for Australia (60-54), while Albanese had the edge on caring for people (60-55). There was essentially nothing to separate them on understanding the major issues (57-56 to Albanese), likeability (56-56), being in touch with voters (50-49 to Albanese) and trustworthiness (49-48). However, Morrison’s worst result was his 58-40 lead on the one negative quality that was gauged – arrogance.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1503. The Australian’s paywalled report of the results is here.

In other poll news, a uComms poll (apparently minus the ReachTEL branding now) for the Courier-Mail ($) suggests Queensland’s embattled Deputy Premier, Jackie Trad, is in grave danger of losing her seat of South Brisbane to the Greens. The poll shows the Greens on 29.4%, Labor on 27.5% and the Liberal National Party on 26.6%, with 10.4% undecided. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but this may flatter Labor given the LNP’s announcement that they would direct preferences against them. No field work date is provided that I can see, but the sample size was 700. The deficiencies of automated phone polls in inner city seats were noted by Kevin Bonham, among others.

UPDATE: In better poll news still, the results from the post-election Australian Election Study survey are available in all their glory, courtesy of the Australian National University. You can view the ANU’s overview of the findings here, but the real fun of this resource is that it allows you to cross-tabulate responses to 3143-respondent survey across a dizzying range of variables. The survey also includes demographic weightings that presume to correct for the biases introduced by the survey process. The survey also addresses a long-standing criticism by including a component of 968 respondents who also completed the 2016 survey, allowing for study of the changing behaviour of the same set of respondents over time.

Rest assured you will be hearing a great deal more about the survey going forward, but for the time being, here’s one set of numbers I have crunched for starters. This shows the primary vote broken down into three age cohorts, and compares them with the equivalent figures from the 2016 survey. This produces some eye-catching results, particularly in regard to a probably excessive surge in support for the Coalition among the middle-aged cohort – mostly at the expense of “others”. By contrast, the young cohort swung heavily to the left, while the boomers were relatively static.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

580 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. C@t, as the ALP just lost an election, they wont be spelling out any climate or environment policies anytime soon. So when they come out loudly in support of coal exports, peeps are going to wonder what they stand for.

    I reckon those concerns deserve a better response than ‘f off and vote lib then’.

  2. lizzie says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 11:24 am

    …”I’ve just come in from shopping and whisked through the pages, and a comment by, I think, Not Sure, made me sit up and growl. The one about disallowing older voters to vote unless under 18s can”…

    Lizzie,
    This was a comment made by a person going by the name “Vic”.
    It was categorically not me.
    It was made by the same person who suggested that working in a coal mine is morally equivalent to operating a nazi gas chamber.

    I remember also, a post I made several months ago which you took to be a dig at something you said, which it was not.

    I would have explained at the time, however I did not read your response until more than a day later and it had lost relevance.

    Some years ago, and under a different name, you and I were quite friendly with each other, I meant no offense.

  3. Greensborough Growler: yep I know, STFU cause who else are you going to vote for? Stupid, short-sighted, anti-democratic, and worst of all politically futile: just remind me how many election wins federally have the right of our party delivered since 1996?

  4. Just so that the wildly irrational know the facts, this is not Labor’s policy for coal going forward:

    The way some are going on here, you’d think it was.

  5. Joanne Murphy @ #453 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:06 pm

    Greensborough Growler: yep I know, STFU cause who else are you going to vote for? Stupid, short-sighted, anti-democratic, and worst of all politically futile: just remind me how many election wins federally have the right of our party delivered over the past three decades?

    And how many have the left of our party delivered?

  6. In what seems standard operating procedure for some in auspol, the mediocre targets that the LNP tore shreds off Labor over during the election campaign, are apparently now central to the excuses being peddled by Taylor to the world at COP25. Albo probably can’t fall over himself quick enough to congratulate the government for apparently taking up their policy. With the LNP apparently now quietly arguing to the rest of the world that a third of coal power will be gone with no new coal power stations by 2030. The mendacity of some. That Labor couldn’t stand by it’s own mediocre targets says something too.

    Coalition said 50% renewables would wreck the economy. Now their modest climate targets depend on it
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/coalition-said-50-renewables-would-wreck-the-economy-now-their-modest-climate-targets-depend-on-it-69429/

  7. Scomo’s emissions accounting trickery not going down well at COP25:

    Australia’s plan to use an accounting loophole to meet its international emissions targets has been formally challenged at UN climate talks, with about 100 countries wanting the practice banned under the Paris agreement.

    Delegates from developing countries led by Belize and Costa Rica have introduced a ban on using carryover credits from the Kyoto protocol into the text of the rulebook for the Paris climate agreement, which is being debated at a meeting in Madrid.

    It is a crucial debate for the Morrison government as it relies on using the accounting measure to meet its commitment under the Paris deal. The emissions reduction minister, Angus Taylor, arrived in Madrid on Sunday to make Australia’s case at the second week of the talks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/09/about-100-countries-at-un-climate-talks-challenge-australias-use-of-carryover-credits

  8. Simon Katich @ #451 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:05 pm

    C@t, as the ALP just lost an election, they wont be spelling out any climate or environment policies anytime soon. So when they come out loudly in support of coal exports, peeps are going to wonder what they stand for.

    I reckon those concerns deserve a better response than ‘f off and vote lib then’.

    Which hasn’t been my response. In fact I have spent most of the day trying my best to explain rationally why Labor just won’t adopt The Greens’ unrealistic line and why the voters who had voted Labor all their lives and didn’t in 2019 deserved as much respect for their pov as any Greens voter or poster here. Do you really have a problem with that? It’s simply a reality that must be faced by people who support Labor, or want to continue to, that a careful balance needs to be effected that takes everyone’s perspective into consideration.

  9. ———
    Scomos emissions accounting trickery not going down well at COP25:
    ———
    Perfect excuse for the louse to pull out. He has been laying the ground work, itching for it.

  10. Joanne Murphy @ #454 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:06 pm

    Greensborough Growler: yep I know, STFU cause who else are you going to vote for? Stupid, short-sighted, anti-democratic, and worst of all politically futile: just remind me how many election wins federally have the right of our party delivered over the past three decades?

    I never advocate STFU. So you can jam that accusation. However, Labor is bigger than just the environment and the only way you’ll get a Government that embraces Health, Schools, protecting the less well off etc is to vote Labor.

    So, at the end of the day you either support the ALP or you can whinge eternally and possibly vote against your economic and personal interests or you can bear the consequences of a LNP cabal.

    Your choice.

  11. Not Sure

    I’m so sorry I made a mistake about the name. I was tired from shopping and should have made the effort to check back.
    I do tend to do a double take whenever someone implies that anyone who is old enough to retire has lost their mables and shouldn’t vote. What happened to democracy?
    I’m glad it wasn’t you. I shan’t forget.

  12. Simon Katich @ #460 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:12 pm

    ———
    Scomos emissions accounting trickery not going down well at COP25:
    ———
    Perfect excuse for the louse to pull out. He has been laying the ground work, itching for it.

    Yep.

    Though that then provides a stark point of difference between ProMo and Labor, and he doesn’t like those. He likes to hew closely to Labor but decry the fine points of difference as if they were monumental. That way people can still feel as if they can vote for him with a clear conscience because he’s kinda sorta doing the right thing. 😐

  13. P1

    Things are happening. They are happening all around you. Have you not noticed?

    I don’t spend my life here BTW so yeah I’ve noticed. My comment was specific to the PB continuing argument GreensVLabor. Waste of time I know.

  14. A surprisingly good coverage of carbon emissions and the nonsense of carry-over credits on the Drum and ABC News tonight. Scott’s probably on the phone whinging to Ita right now.

  15. C@t

    …. why the voters who had voted Labor all their lives and didn’t in 2019 deserved as much respect for their pov as any Greens voter or poster here.

    Respect for a pov is not the same as capitulate. Labor has lost my vote for the next election and I can’t see them getting it back. Heck I might even take up GG’s suggest and vote 1 Coalition.

  16. Lizzie,

    I think the implication was not so much that older people had lost their where-with-alls, but more that they would be dead soon and therefore had no right to vote for/against things they would not be around to see.

    I can’t quite figure out which is more vile.

  17. Watching SBS news had a chuckle when a graphic showing the popularity ratings of the political party leaders flashed up.

    Shorten’s rating was lower than the evil RDN.

    Source: AES.

  18. Mexican

    I’m slow to respond bc I’m on mobile but that IPA list to me was only too believable. Praps I am less inclined to trust them.

  19. @Guytaur,

    “ALL Labor has to do is convince voters there is economic life without coal.”

    With the 24/7 wave of disinformation actively fostered by the mainstream media, that’s kinda…challenging, to put it mildly. And Labor tried that in 2016, and again in 2019. They lost both times – and they got utterly trounced in Queensland both times. In NSW, Victoria, SA & Tas, Labor won more seats than the Coalition. Only in WA & Qld did the Coalition win more seats – and the Qld result was particularly lopsided. 23 for the Fibs to just 6(!) for Labor.

    If the Coalition are to be ousted, Labor have got to figure out how to erode their support in Queensland – otherwise, Qld gives the Coalition too much of an advantage to realistically overcome elsewhere. And that means not going balls-to-the-wall attacking coal, as you Greenies want to. It’s that simple.

    @Mundo:

    “It’s why so many here were completly blindsided by the May Scrottslide.”

    …The Fibs picked up two seats. Two seats, and now have a Parliamentary majority of…two seats. Out of a House of 150 seats. That is not any variation of a “landslide” worth calling one!

  20. @Pegasus: Tricky Dicky Di Natale hasn’t been the target of a six-years-long, constant character assassination campaign by the entire MSM. It’s why I don’t think that changing leaders will particularly help Labor; the smear engines will start up on him as the next election approaches, and his approval ratings will nosedive too. Just like any other Labor leader’s will.

  21. poroti @ #472 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:21 pm

    C@t

    …. why the voters who had voted Labor all their lives and didn’t in 2019 deserved as much respect for their pov as any Greens voter or poster here.

    Respect for a pov is not the same as capitulate. Labor has lost my vote for the next election and I can’t see them getting it back. Heck I might even take up GG’s suggest and vote 1 Coalition.

    So, Labor are capitulating because they care about workers? You WILL find a better home voting for the Liberals then. Enjoy the dead environment they are creating. Have you started praying and joined an Evangelical church yet?

    Or, you could actually deal with reality. Workers need to be looked after, as well as the environment and climate change dealt with. Labor are the only party that are up for that.

  22. Oh, and I heard from the unions over the weekend that Richard Di Natale paid his au pairs $5 per hour and kept the rest of what their normal wage should have been for rent and meals. Just like any exploitative employer.


  23. Simon Katich says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 6:55 pm

    ———
    Vote Lib. See how that improves your lot.
    ———
    Ah, the Chris Bowen tactic?
    Surely there was a better response to Joanne’s concerns.

    I get the ALP want to be loudly consistent now regarding coal exports. But that sort of attitude to ALP voters worried it spells a complete backdown on domestic emissions reductions and the environment will see the ALP primary dwindle further.

    I agree, and that is not what they have done; Albanese was very clear on that.
    The desire to reduce demand continues unabated.

  24. Matt

    And you don’t reckon the Greens haven’t been demonised as “extreme, ferals,etc.” by the MSM and the political duopoly since the federated party came on the political stage some 27 years ago.

  25. I noticed the new’s limited reporter took up the Greens fairy tail with gusto.
    Labor confused because they are focusing on Australian Demand, not on exporting jobs for a Green stunt.
    Should see a Green government next election for sure.

  26. Greensborough Growler: and you can jam the accusation that I – or anybody in the ALP to the right of you – who advocates for better policies on the environment is A. single issue, B. “whinges eternally”.

  27. And now unfortunately we have poor Albo who is suffering from a severe case of Turnbullitis, which is of course where right factioners (such as the Shortenists) in a party take control of a leader who is from the slightly-less-right-wing faction.

    Very good observation. For a short period in late May, the SDA/AWU cabal, after failing to find any candidate with the ability to prevent Albo’s ascension to the leadership, were panicking at the thought that their stranglehold over the party, in place since the hostile takeover of June 2010, had finally been broken. They responded by quickly rewriting history to push the narrative that the ALP lost because their policy platform was too skewed to the left, and in particular their climate policy was too radical (an assessment that no halfway impartial observer could possibly have reacted to without laughing in disbelief).

    Unfortunately, the support of the rank and file means bugger all in Caucus, and said cabal has Albo by the short and curlies, well and truly. Their strategy for dealing with his leadership is evidently to ensure that the party’s policies are as far to the right as possible. Therefore, given that they are most likely headed for a thrashing in 2022, they’ll still be able to avoid wearing any of the blame, bleating “Well, that’s what happens when we let a Trot lead us!” The Rudd Reforms will promptly be junked “for the good of the party”, it will loudly be claimed that Shorten has been vindicated, and there will no longer be any barriers to his Divinely-ordained glorious restoration (with Fitzgibbon as deputy, no doubt).

    That’s why the smartest thing Albo could do is step down from the leadership, thus avoiding his future status as a demonised scapegoat. Hopefully the cabal would regain the leadership for one of their own, which would trigger a fresh bout of unseemly gloating for a month or so, but ultimately it would mean that, post-2022 thrashing, there would be no prospect of them once again being able to shift the blame leftwards. In the longer term, this may be the best hope of the centre-left being able to regain any influence in this country.

  28. Tonight’s Qanda is the final for the year. No coalition MP, only Turnbull whom I’m assuming will be back to Q&A Darling Turnbull.

    :large

  29. Pegasus says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 7:24 pm

    Shorten’s rating was lower than the evil RDN.

    Greens worked hard for that, congratulations.

  30. itsthevibe @ #487 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:40 pm

    And now unfortunately we have poor Albo who is suffering from a severe case of Turnbullitis, which is of course where right factioners (such as the Shortenists) in a party take control of a leader who is from the slightly-less-right-wing faction.

    Very good observation. For a short period in late May, the SDA/AWU cabal, after failing to find any candidate with the ability to prevent Albo’s ascension to the leadership, were panicking at the thought that their stranglehold over the party, in place since the hostile takeover of June 2010, had finally been broken. They responded by quickly rewriting history to push the narrative that the ALP lost because their policy platform was too skewed to the left, and in particular their climate policy was too radical (an assessment that no halfway impartial observer could possibly have reacted to without laughing in disbelief).

    Unfortunately, the support of the rank and file means bugger all in Caucus, and said cabal has Albo by the short and curlies, well and truly. Their strategy for dealing with his leadership is evidently to ensure that the party’s policies are as far to the right as possible. Therefore, given that they are most likely headed for a thrashing in 2022, they’ll still be able to avoid wearing any of the blame, bleating “Well, that’s what happens when we let a Trot lead us!” The Rudd Reforms will promptly be junked “for the good of the party”, it will loudly be claimed that Shorten has been vindicated, and there will no longer be any barriers to his Divinely-ordained glorious restoration (with Fitzgibbon as deputy, no doubt).

    That’s why the smartest thing Albo could do is step down from the leadership, thus avoiding his future status as a demonised scapegoat. Hopefully the cabal would regain the leadership for one of their own, which would trigger a fresh bout of unseemly gloating for a month or so, but ultimately it would mean that, post-2022 thrashing, there would be no prospect of them once again being able to shift the blame leftwards. In the longer term, this may be the best hope of the centre-left being able to regain any influence in this country.

    Haters gonna hate.

    Goodbye.

  31. Having approached White Island in January 2017 with my family and then having walked on its weird yellow surface holding a respirator, I was kind of glad to be off it.

  32. Joanne Murphy @ #488 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:38 pm

    Greensborough Growler: and you can jam the accusation that I – or anybody in the ALP to the right of you – who advocates for better policies on the environment is A. single issue, B. “whinges eternally”.

    You’re new here champ. “Better” is one of those words that doesn’t have much purchasing power here on PB because it’s definition and interpretation is open to misrepresentation. It really comes down to the issue du jour.

    If you’ve got something interesting to say about an idea or a particular policy fill your boots, comrade.

    But, putting out waffle like “better” doesn’t have much resonance.

    Cheers.

  33. Lizzie says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 7:31 pm

    Not sure

    …”The whole intergenerational ‘war’ is in my opinion partly invented by the media and helps no one. Ridiculous”…

    And middle aged ideologues who haven’t yet figured out that most of the stuff they believed when they were 20, is unrealistic and self-destructive.

  34. C@t at 6.51pm: Victorian lefties should get out of the State to find out how the other 90% live in the “real world”.

    C@t at 7.15pm: here Quoll have a read what the great left wing Victorian Labor party are doing for workers in the La Trobe Valley.

    Cognitive dissonance much?

  35. “Shorten’s rating was lower than the evil RDN.”

    Hmmm…a “popular” leader who’s party is stuck on 10% foreva. Sounds like a winning formula eh Horsey??

  36. C@tmomma:
    I don’t mind your personal attack on me, but did you read John Quiggin’s post? The reason I entered the discussion was to point people to the Quiggin post in the hope of engendering some discussion about it. Perhaps I should not have editorialised.

    However, regarding John Quiggin, I happen to think that he is a thoughtful contributor to the political and social discourse.

  37. Greensborough Growler: actually “champ” I’ve been lurking & occasionally posting on PB for the past year now, so not that new. But yeah I can see how posting links to AFR articles hidden behind paywalls is really interesting and original advocacy.

  38. Stuart
    John Quiggin lost me when he advocated voting against the Bligh government when they wanted to sell off pine plantations.

    We got the Newman government.

  39. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 7:12 pm
    Simon Katich @ #451 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:05 pm

    C@t, as the ALP just lost an election, they wont be spelling out any climate or environment policies anytime soon. So when they come out loudly in support of coal exports, peeps are going to wonder what they stand for.

    I reckon those concerns deserve a better response than ‘f off and vote lib then’.
    Which hasn’t been my response. In fact I have spent most of the day trying my best to explain rationally why Labor just won’t adopt The Greens’ unrealistic line and why the voters who had voted Labor all their lives and didn’t in 2019 deserved as much respect for their pov as any Greens voter or poster here. Do you really have a problem with that? It’s simply a reality that must be faced by people who support Labor, or want to continue to, that a careful balance needs to be effected that takes everyone’s perspective into consideration.
    _____________________
    You seem a little tense! Hopefully you don’t resort to personal attacks which is typically the next stage in your incessant cycle of rage.

  40. One thing I do like about New Zealand is that if you want to risk your life by walking around in the crater of an active volcano, they let you do it.

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