Big news on the polling front as Newspoll unveils its first set of results based on what The Australian describes as “an improved methodology following an investigation into the failure of the major published polls”. The old series had been limping on post-election with results appearing every three weeks, but this latest result emerges only a fortnight after the last, presumably portending a return to the traditional fortnightly schedule.
The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 in the result a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 33% (down two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 5% (down two). Interestingly, both leaders’ personal ratings are a lot worse than they were in the old series: Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 43% (down three) with disapproval at 52% (up nine), while Anthony Albanese is at 38% approval (down four, though he was up five last time) and 42% disapproval (up five, though he was down seven last time). No news yet on preferred prime minister, which is presumably still a thing (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead narrows from 46-32 to 46-35).
On the methodological front, the poll has dropped robopolling and is now conducted entirely online. The sample size of 1519 is similar to before (slightly lower in fact), but the field work dates are now Thursday to Saturday rather than Thursday to Sunday. In a column for the newspaper, Campbell White of YouGov Asia-Pacific, which conducts the poll, offers the following on why robopolling has been abandoned:
A decade or so ago, most people had landlines and they tended to answer them. There was very little call screening. This meant getting a representative sample was easier and pollsters did not need to be so skilled in modelling and scaling their data. The truth is, the old days are never coming back. In order to do better, we need to consider what we can do differently. We’ve seen a consistent pattern overseas where telephone polling has become less accurate and online polling more so as fewer people answer phone calls and more and more people are online.
White further notes that “annoying and invasive” robopolling is “answered largely by older people or those who are very interested in politics”, while “busy people who are less interested in politics either don’t answer or hang up”. He also reveals that the new series will “weight the data by age interlocked with education and have precise quotas for different types of electorate throughout Australia”, consistent with YouGov’s methodology internationally.
Hopefully the restated commitment to “greater transparency” means we will shortly see comprehensive details of demographic breakdowns and weightings, a commonplace feature of British and American polling that Australian poll watchers could only envy. Stay tuned.
Now, something I will bet on is that I’m pretty sure that any questions Labor directs at Angus Taylor will be answered by Scott Morrison.
Mavis
Yup. Had it for years. 🙂
A reminder for Labor.
It only needs to have a gain of two seats.
The majority is with the science. That means on climate change you can ignore the coal spruikers. You can win seats in Brisbane and Western Sydney.
The tradies won’t be threatened by electric cars.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50536200
#ETTD
Anyway, I’m fortuitously going to hear Gareth Evans speak tonight, in that ‘why would anyone in their right mind want to go there!?! 🙄 ‘ place, Sydney, tonight. And you can be as sure as god made little green apples, in the Q and A section I’m going to ask him about his perspective re China.
C@t
I think you may be right. He’ s got his staff searching the archives for more ‘dirt’ on Labor right now.
From Alex Greenwich (Independent Sydney):
SYDNEY WATER SUPPLY
Sydney dam levels dropped below 47 per cent this week – this time last year they were at 65 per cent – and our supply is rapidly declining helped by lack of rain and high evaporation. The government upgraded restrictions and is expanding desalination operations but in Parliament I called for sustainable action to drought proof our city.
Sydney is the only city in the world to allow coal mining in its catchment and while the government recently put a temporary freeze on new coal mining in the catchment, our dams already lose eight million litres of water a day from existing mines and we need an urgent phase-out.
Our pricing rules make waste water recycling in new residential developments commercially unviable. Since the rules commenced, no new water recycling facilities have been built in the city and residential developers have been hesitant to invest in dual plumbing systems. Other types of development are charged more fairly and I called for a similar pricing scheme in residential buildings.
(my bold)
C@t
The Gareth/Cheryl romance was one I enjoyed very much. 😮
lizzie @ #156 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:43 am
He’ll just go the full shouty bluff and bluster about ‘Labor! Labor! Labor!’ to be sure. He really loves nothing more than attempting to cow people and bend them to his will. This includes Labor.
lizzie @ #158 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:45 am
They’re both still going strong and are unbowed. 🙂
So you’ll trade habitat loss and species extinction for a few hundred relocated jobs?
Here’s an idea for a T-Shirt you can wear while you door knock for Labor:
The C@t that killed the Black Throated Finch.
It should be a real vote winner, right?
It’s well documented that Sydney water keep dropping unit prices for water and wondering why people and businesses use more, and substitutes aren’t being invested in.
Complete economic and environmental dickheadery.
*Out*
Confessions @ #157 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:44 am
Isn’t that more quid pro quo?
Didn’t Cheryl bonk the head prefect at my old school? Disclaimer: one for sex and sex for all is my motto, if not the school’s.
lizzie @ #120 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:45 am
I await the movie which I hope will be in the style of a Chick Flick. Nothing like romance to delight the old but young at heart. ❤❥❣♡💘💓🎥
KayJay @ #166 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:52 am
You’re always as young as the person you feel !
bakunin @ #161 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:49 am
Simplistic snark and nonsense, bakunin. I expect better from you. Though maybe I shouldn’t. You have obviously excluded the part of my answer which referred to Renewables. Without going into too much detail I assumed (and you know what they say about assuming things?), that you could join the dots. Apparently not. Anyway, the decision is not mine, no matter how many doors Labor knocks on, the decision is up to Scott Morrison and Gina Reinhart and Clive Palmer, and they don’t give a damn about the Black-Throated Finch. Even if I do.
Wake up, bakunin, before all the habitat and the animals who live in it are destroyed, as you do the Coalition’s legwork in focusing laser-like on Labor and its supporters while you let the Coalition off Scott-free, to do as they will!
Before I end my Monday board clogging, jobs to be done, how do they get on-line details for on-line polling?
Labor need to win 9 more seats. There will likely be a reduction on one seat in WA, which may cost Labor a seat, Burt.
ItzaDream @ #164 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:51 am
Was the school uniform for the girls a bodice that could be ripped? 😉
I know that everyone on here is 100% with science.
In that spirit it should be noted that there is a single species of Black-throated Finch aka ‘the Black-throated Finch. It has two subspecies: Poephila cincta cincta and Poephila cincta atropygialis.
There is some evidence of intergradation between the subspecies, and further evidence that the border between the northern and southern subspecies is moving south.
Adani may or may not lead to the extinction of the southern subspecies.
Those who argue that Adani will lead to the extinction of ‘the’ Black-throated Finch’ are ignoring the scientific facts in order to create a political club with which to beat up on their enemies.
In this respect the extinction of ‘the’ Black-throated Finch is no different from Zero/2030: fake facts designed to be used as political clubs rather than as anything real in the practical sense.
Re. the rule of law as far as Israel’s concerned. The Israeli A-G signed off on Netanyahu’s indictment. This is equivalent to Porter doing the same to Morrison, where he has the statutory authority to do so – eg, intelligence legislation. It wouldn’t happen. I think at its crux, Israelis witnessed under Hitler such a complete breakdown of the tenets of the rule of law that they feel compelled to set an appropriate example. I make no comment on how Israel treats its neighbours; that’s a separate argument.
ItzaDream
Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:53 am
Comment #128
My wife used to say that so it must be right. 😇
C@tmomma @ #172 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:56 am
I’d left well before girls were a thing!
(More’s the pity maybe. But, there’s nothing I’d want to be different.)
ItzaDream, I have seen Koalas wreck and ecosystem. I believe they were introduced there and proceeded to do what herbivores do with out predators, they multiplied out of control. The result was a forest of dead manna gums. The striking visual of trunks and branches testimony To unintended consequences.
The solution I saw was to plant more gums and also the possibility of moving the ‘excess’ Koalas to other areas to repeat the process of forest destruction.
I would be careful of signing over control to people who mean well, but may not be aware of the consequences.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-13/program-to-rescue-starving-koalas-at-cape-otway-showing-results/8521148
Boerwar
I have never enquired before. Do you know which sub-species is the one sold as a cage bird? Or have they been interbred?
Gareth is a brilliant man in most of his pursuits.
The one obvious flaw he has is that he has a poor aim when throwing an ashtray 🙂
RI
Labor did not lose nine seats. It was no landslide.
We know the last minute voters are volatile.
They bought a PR campaign.
Labor better at the PR they will win more of that volatile vote. With our media landscape I see that happening in Western Sydney and Brisbane. I don’t see Labor making inroads in North Queensland because of that hostile media dominance.
@Cat – don’t be surprised if the Morrison Government becomes a “Good Government that has lost it’s way”
Peter Hartcher dropped in to the Project last night to spruik his China stories.
His “solution” to the issue of potential Chinese political influence over our politics – have every MP be required to get a security clearance.
No one on the panel made any negative noises about this.
It scared the willies out of me.
(a) effectively making ASIO or ASIS or whoever the unquestioned gatekeepers over who gets to sit in parliament is a point-blank very bad idea.
(b) how would this work, exactly? Surely there would be constitutional amendments required? Although it did occur to me that good old s44 might be the entry-way for this if there was some constitutionally legitimate way to make being assessed for “allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power” equivalent to whatever ‘security clearance’ Hartcher might be proposing … but given how weird and rigid the HC has been on this, this would have to be inserted into the process of registering as a candidate, and that would certainly have a seriously chilling effect on democracy.
Ah, Australian media; gotta laugh or you’d cry.
The US Navy Secretary should have said on why he quit,
“It is my word against Foxnews I told Dotard – you choose. He did, I quit.”
PeeBee @ #177 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 11:01 am
I hear you.
This programme is not about relocation, but the retention / extension and preservation of suitable habitat of existing colonies.
‘lizzie says:
Monday, November 25, 2019 at 11:01 am
Boerwar
I have never enquired before. Do you know which sub-species is the one sold as a cage bird? Or have they been interbred?’
They are a common bird in Australian aviaries. Various ‘sports’ have been bred. They almost certainly include offspring between the two subspecies. In the aviary trade they are also known as ‘Parsons Finch’.
“C@t The Gareth/Cheryl romance was one I enjoyed very much. They’re both still going strong and are unbowed.” Cheryl’s mum lives very close to us and I see Cheryl visiting in her PT Cruiser regularly. Wouldn’t mind betting she reads this blog on occasion.
Jacqui Lambie ‘not supporting a repeal’ of medevac, Rex Patrick says
[‘Rex Patrick, talking to Sky News, had a little to say about Jacqui Lambie’s position on the medevac bill.
Centre Alliance has a loose coalition with Lambie, where they share information on bills they agree on (and then go their separate way on bills they don’t).
I have spoken to Jacqui, and she is not supporting a repeal of the legislation, she is considering amending the legislation. I don’t know the details of what she is proposing and I understand she is talking with the government, but it is my understanding that she is not seeking to repeal that bill.’]
Peebee
It is true that Koalas have been singularly destructive where they have been introduced to previously Koala-free areas. One of the reasons is that these areas (Phillip Is and Kangaroo Is) are predator-free. But they are also areas of low fire frequency.
The populations for all herbivores, absent some population control measures such as predation/disease/fire, will increase indefinitely until they outstrip food supply and there is a population crash.
Some elements of population control on mainland Koalas have gone. New ones have arrived.
The real issue with Koalas, IMO, is that they distort priorities by diverting attention and resources from species that ARE critically endangered.
To the extent that this is true, noisy Koala ‘advocates’ are part of the problem facing critically endangered Australian plants and animals.
Boerwar
Thanks for that. I hadn’t realised they were caged under a pseudonym. Obviously that cuts out any chance of saving the genetically pure.
Although really, with the current extinction tsunami, the loss of one more tiny species will hardly be noticed. 🙁
This is big. With other streaming services having arrived I think it’s a big hit to Foxtel’s revenue stream.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/foxtel-threatens-to-cut-ties-with-rugby-union-20191124-p53dlt.html
Di Natale should pick up the phone and tell Xi to get stuck into the peace studies which, along with the mooted Light Mobile Force, comprise the Greens’ policies for the defence of Australia.
Terminator
Cheryl is a very active Twitterer, on behalf of Labor.
I wonder if Trump took notes.
‘lizzie says:
Monday, November 25, 2019 at 11:20 am
Boerwar
Thanks for that. I hadn’t realised they were caged under a pseudonym. Obviously that cuts out any chance of saving the genetically pure.
Although really, with the current extinction tsunami, the loss of one more tiny species will hardly be noticed. ‘
Birds are somewhat more resistant than marsupials and plants to extinction. Only one mainland species has gone extinct since 1788 – the Paradise Parrot. It had a restricted range, possibly a restricted food source, and restricted nest sites. It was uncommon and patchily distributed within its range when first discovered. Its range was hit by cattle grazing, changes to fire regimes, introduced plant species, introduced predators, introduced competitors and it was also possibly hit by introduced pathogens. It became extinct within a generation of its discovery.
What is more concerning IMO, bird populations-wise, is that formerly common birds with wide distributions are edging towards extinction. This includes the Regent Honeyeater, for example.
Foxtel and Murdoch are why we have a piss poor 4th world NBN. Fluck ’em.
Mavis
Hopefully Lambie will not sell out workers on the “integrity” bill.
Boerwar
A few years ago I wrote a novel about the Paradise Parrot and attempts to recreate it. Didn’t get anywhere, of course.
The (attempted) repealing of the Medevac legislation is as good an example as you’ll get for vengeful Toryism.
C@t @10:40.
“Now, something I will bet on is that I’m pretty sure that any questions Labor directs at Angus Taylor will be answered by Scott Morrison.”
And that the answer will be along the lines of “Blather blather blather, Labor Labor Labor, bluster bluster bluster…”
Lambie: I will not be supporting {insert legislation here}.
Cormann: $20M for Tasmania?
Lambie: Sold!
She’s sort of a sweary Brian Harradine.