Big news on the polling front as Newspoll unveils its first set of results based on what The Australian describes as “an improved methodology following an investigation into the failure of the major published polls”. The old series had been limping on post-election with results appearing every three weeks, but this latest result emerges only a fortnight after the last, presumably portending a return to the traditional fortnightly schedule.
The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 in the result a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 33% (down two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 5% (down two). Interestingly, both leaders’ personal ratings are a lot worse than they were in the old series: Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 43% (down three) with disapproval at 52% (up nine), while Anthony Albanese is at 38% approval (down four, though he was up five last time) and 42% disapproval (up five, though he was down seven last time). No news yet on preferred prime minister, which is presumably still a thing (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead narrows from 46-32 to 46-35).
On the methodological front, the poll has dropped robopolling and is now conducted entirely online. The sample size of 1519 is similar to before (slightly lower in fact), but the field work dates are now Thursday to Saturday rather than Thursday to Sunday. In a column for the newspaper, Campbell White of YouGov Asia-Pacific, which conducts the poll, offers the following on why robopolling has been abandoned:
A decade or so ago, most people had landlines and they tended to answer them. There was very little call screening. This meant getting a representative sample was easier and pollsters did not need to be so skilled in modelling and scaling their data. The truth is, the old days are never coming back. In order to do better, we need to consider what we can do differently. We’ve seen a consistent pattern overseas where telephone polling has become less accurate and online polling more so as fewer people answer phone calls and more and more people are online.
White further notes that “annoying and invasive” robopolling is “answered largely by older people or those who are very interested in politics”, while “busy people who are less interested in politics either don’t answer or hang up”. He also reveals that the new series will “weight the data by age interlocked with education and have precise quotas for different types of electorate throughout Australia”, consistent with YouGov’s methodology internationally.
Hopefully the restated commitment to “greater transparency” means we will shortly see comprehensive details of demographic breakdowns and weightings, a commonplace feature of British and American polling that Australian poll watchers could only envy. Stay tuned.
pritu
says:
Monday, November 25, 2019 at 6:17 am
William, this was my first port of call until the likes of nath etc. turned it into I don’t know what.
=========
Too right. Nath is a malign influence who has taken over this blog to its detriment.
This is the type of machiavellian genius that Morrison is capable of, which in this case is rewriting history.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/nov/23/scott-morrison-cant-attack-australias-political-circu0s-and-pretend-he-isnt-its-ringmaster
C@t:
I can remember as a kid my grandparents had the radio going in the kitchen in the mornings and always listened to John Laws who preceded Alan Jones.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #100 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 9:10 am
Oh touche Barney. Bingo! Brilliant stuff!
You’re definitely one of the sharper tools in the kit.
There are some very cynical commentators around politics, this lady amongst them.
I’m not surprised the Chinese have chosen the Libs. Morrison ticks so many boxes for them (no, not all).
“Hopefully the restated commitment to “greater transparency” means we will shortly see comprehensive details of demographic breakdowns and weightings, a commonplace feature of British and American polling that Australian poll watchers could only envy. Stay tuned.”
Hi William,
Do you have a public opinion on social media sentiment analysis, of the type that Bela Stancic produces?
C@t,
Re the coal reserves chart you posted yesterday.
According to the Dept of Industry “Coal in India 2019” report a large proportion of India’s reserves are at a depth of 300 metres or more.
Coal India – which is 75% state owned – produces 80% of India’s domestic coal, and has been scaling back underground coal mining to cut production costs.
https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-08/coal-in-india-2019-report.pdf
Hey, look.
Frpm K. Murphy’s excellent piece…
‘There are two possible explanations. The first is this is what government is now, either in democracies or in autocracies: build your own reality, create your own facts, and anchor this consequence-free environment with the constant suppression of your opponents.’……’Shortly after sunrise each day, Scott launches his valiant quest to prevail against the forces of Labor recklessness; the same quest, over and over, like it’s Groundhog Day, because with all the disengagement and disruption, you have to keep grinding away with your G-rated picaresque until enough people see it.’….
Labor is in deep do do.
Angus Taylor is the energy minister. Not only is is good tactics to target a senior cabinet minister, the portfolio he is responsible for is in accute public focus. Plus it is highly relevant to Labor’s attempts to differentiate themselves from the Libs.
Keep the pressure on Angus. It helps to undermine any policy he announces, and may possibly force another mistake.
Sorry accidentally hit post before I was done…
Anyway report shows that Indian domestic demand will continue to outstrip domestic production until at least 2030, possibly 2040.
What I did find surprising was the Indian target of 500GW generation from renewables (excluding large scale hydro) by 2030. The report suggests that they are unlikely to meet this. However if achieved it would represent 60% of power generation from renewables.
Also there is the matter of the forged documentation, as well as the allegations surrounding water buybacks.
It’s not only good politically to chase Taylor, but it’s in the public interest as well to bring sunlight to the shady issues that cloak him.
adrian says:
Monday, November 25, 2019 at 6:50 am
And most of us have worked out that there is a difference between there and their.
And no doubt we will have to put up with another day of anti labor postings from guytaur, generated by the Green party, and you will think that is all ok, that no-one should point out what the Greens have become.
sprocket_ @ #49 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 6:58 am
To be fair to these unconscionably wealthy individuals, measuring charitable giving based on wealth rather than income is like measuring tax paid on market capitalisation, ie. not at all useful. I do understand that these guys should be treated as special cases because of their extreme wealth, but they should be compared on a like-for-like basis and a generic sum of their total wealth doesn’t do that.
Even so, Gates and Buffett stand out like dog’s balls. FWIW, Buffett makes about 13.5B per year (I shit you not), which makes his giving about 25% of his income. The Gates mostly give through their foundation, roughly $35B per year (not sure what the numbers in the table represent in that case). Even so, none of this seems to dent their wealth accumulation at all (they all get richer each year), so while the numbers look large, and I’m sure the money does good things, it doesn’t actually cost them personally to do this so I find it hard to give them accolades.
Fess,
That might be the truth of the matter, but I was talking only about the politics!
Dandy Murray @ #110 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 9:37 am
He’s also a blatant shonk. His continued presence in the ministry despite the scandal that continually surrounds him speaks volumes about the government.
Barnaby’s big fail.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-25/government-push-to-move-public-servants-to-the-bush-is-failing/11731076?pfmredir=sm
There is a bit of a question about where the donations go and what they buy.
For example, the Koch brothers give lots of money to organizations that are seeking to undermine action on climate change.
Adelson is very right wing and is a major donor to the GOP. His objectives presumably include the Jerusalem Embassy Move decision and the Israeli Settlements are Legal decision by Trump.
Gates and Buffet are quite targetted in generating very systematic beneficial changes in third world states.
Dandy Murray:
No worries.
Unfortunately these days ministers no longer feel the need to resign when they fail in their duties or are the subject of misconduct allegations.
bakunin @ #106 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 9:32 am
However, if India doesn’t want to do longwall underground mining to access its coal, then I’m sure the US under Trump, or China, will sell to them if Australia decides not to. This is the cold, hard reality that The Greens need to wake up to. Nevertheless, that doesn’t take away from the facts and figures that Dandy Murray or frednk posted, which show the financial advantage of the switch to Renewables, which is, of course, the preferred option.
So, the point that we have all been trying to make here for years is then that all the ‘Stop Adani’ convoys in the world cannot alter reality, as described above. Therefore, The Greens need to stop silly performative gestures like that and work on informing the public about the facts and figures wrt Renewables. 🙂
Speaking very broadly – I think there is something inherently nasty, ruthless, viscous in the Tory class of politicians derived from their belief in their own specialness and superiority. It drives their divide and conquer mentality, and is inherent to their way of life and the belief in the greater importance of their lives over others. It comes naturally to smash and destroy and oppose and undo anything from the ‘others’ regardless of merit. They do it conscientiously every day, day in and day out. They are aided and abetted by those with the same basic out look – the media barons and corporate profiteers.
The left on the other hand come from a place where sharing and equality and a coming together in the interest of all is the main game. Destructive political end games are not in the genes. They are held hostage to their own inherent niceness, and are at the mercy of the more ruthless.
Eryk Bagshaw giving Labor a leg up here….
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-s-attempt-at-rewriting-history-unfolding-before-our-eyes-20191124-p53dkv.html
Let’s hope they take their cue.
ItzaDream @ #121 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 9:56 am
Bingo.
Itza
You nailed it.
The loggers believe it will all grow again, so what’s ya beef.
On Koalas being effectively extinct. We and others in our area have been approached by the Biodiversity Conservation Trust, NSW Govt, about the use of landholders land as Koala sanctuary. Owners have been pre-selected remotely on the basis of region, topography, flora etc.
The process involves submitting an EOI for likely suitable land (>20Ha) which is followed by a site visit by Dept, discussion of suitability, working up of a management plan including costings – maintenance, improvements, documentation, reporting – which would be then submitted for a reverse type auction where best value blocks (merit vs annual $ return to land owner for management) are selected, and Koala Sanctuary status is registered on title *in perpetuity*.
In perpetuity is a bit of a show stopper. It means you are all but effectively bequeathing the land to the state and then maintaining it for them, for good purpose, for a promised financial annual return.
(Edit greater than 20Ha, not less than)
ItzaDream @ #121 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 9:56 am
I agree, they are a bit thick.
autocrat @ #126 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:08 am
Oleaginous, you could say. 🙂
Michael:
[‘Too right. Nath is a malign influence who has taken over this blog to its detriment.’]
He’s done nothing of the sort. If you disagree with his posts, you’re at liberty to respond accordingly.
________________________________________________________________
yabba:
[‘You stuffwit…Your drooling post quite beautifully demonstrates my point about pig ignorance.’]
With colourful turn of phrase, you’re out of the blocks early today.
__________________________________________________________
[‘JERUSALEM (AP) — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looked to project business as usual Sunday as he returned to work following his indictment on corruption charges, but a wall of silence from his usually loyal Cabinet ministers could mean tough times ahead for the embattled Israeli leader.’]
So, it looks like there’s going to be a spill against Netanyahu. Quite apart from the charges he faces, Israel does have an enviable record of adherence to the rule of law (eg, Ehud Olmert) as it pertains to the precept that from the prime minister down, everyone’s equal under it. I can’t see him surviving this one.
I like Flanagan’s Reverse Magic in regards to Morrison. That and Morrison is Humphrey B Bear on MDMA.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/25/scott-morrison-and-the-big-lie-about-climate-change-does-he-think-were-that-stupid
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-s-attempt-at-rewriting-history-unfolding-before-our-eyes-20191124-p53dkv.html
Confessions @ #118 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 9:55 am
Because their complicit Prime Minister is in on the game. It’s all about toughing it out until the caravan moves on these days. And making sure that said Minister is handsome enough to beguile low information voters with a blizzard of handsomely-delivered bs.
Mavis
No, it just encourages him.
lizzie @ #131 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:12 am
They hate it because it worked. The seething hate is a sickness.
C@t
Noice. 🙂
I noticed that a day or two ago there was a worried crease or two spoiling the boyish look.
Apparently, [Morrison] comes in with a Powerpoint presentation, tells everyone to be quiet while he speaks to it, tells them what to go out and do and say, and that’s it! Total. Control.
This is the Real ScoMo coming out. Don’t think for a moment that the Liberals will cheerfully put up with it forever. They have form getting rid of him.
As annoying as Morrison may be to those in politics who oppose him, at least we can vent a little. Imagine what it must be like to have to keep your trap shut, and pretend you like and respect him.
Morrison’s modus vivendi is to operate in secret and to dictate to others what they are to do. He keeps his subordinates on a need-to-know basis. Only Morrison has the Big Picture to hand. It leads to his demise every time; that and his disloyalty.
If his behaviour towards Turnbull wasn’t enough to convince anyone of his two-facedness, then his constant bragging about how loyal he is should put the matter to rest.
Richard Flanagan in The Guardian muses (but only muses) out loud whether Morrison’s beliefs concerning The Rapture – that only he and his fellow Happy Clappers will be elevated above the coming End Times and their vicissitudes – is driving his response to Global Warming. I don’t know why Flanagan pulls his punches. There’s nothing surer than that Morrison thinks he’s destined for a comfy seat in God’s Chairman’s Lounge while the Earth burns and is riven by pestilence below. His recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s rightful capital is another indicator that his religion is affecting his decision-making.
Sure, cynics will write this latter move off as crass politics, a cheap and clumsy attempt to bribe Jews with the prospect of reunification of the Chosen People. All the Jews live in Nose Bay and Jehovah Heights right? Isn’t “Vaucluse” full o’ Jews? Everyone knows that. Give ’em something that’ll get ’em to vote Liberal in Wentworth.
The problem with the “cynical” analysis is that ScoMo believes every word of what he’s hearing from Hillsong. Pentecostals not only believe in and accept the reality of the Rapture story, they have a duty to bring it about. Some religions sit around and wait for the Second Coming. Happy Clappers actively engineer it. In this context a meeting with Australia’s Chief Clapper, Hillsong’s Brian Houston, and Trump at a Washington state dinner, is not grubby influence peddling by Morrison, it’s two of God’s most important generals on Earth getting together for a last minute strategy conference.
Let us also not forget that there are new books of the Bible yet to be written. The Book Of ScoMo has a nice ring to it. Crazy is never crazy enough when it comes to these tongue-talking fanatics.
The Jews know they’re being used, of course, but Israel needs help from wherever it can get it. They go along with this End Times boondoggle. It keeps them safe and armed with the latest weaponry in this World while they await their own fate, once again, as ordained by the Almighty, in the next.
It’s a game of fanatics upon fanatics. In one direction it’s fanatics all the way down, as far as you can see. Problem is: we’re not all fanatics. The mainstream is unbelieving. Types like ScoMo always end up pissing off the (relatively) normal people around them; the ones who are just run of the mill atheists, spivs and sinners.
However much Morrison pisses most people off, the ones he really annoys are those who have to work with him. That Happy Clapper bonhommie, the infuriating self-confidence, the black secrecy, the disliyalty and the backslapping braggadocio will again be his downfall… and it may be sooner than we think.
Anyway, I think he’s ugly. And besides, you should see the portrait in the attic.
Last week when he fronted a room of experts, peak body reps and industry heavyweights, Angus was properly nervous.
It was noticed.
*Work beckons*
BK @ #54 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 7:13 am
I was thinking about this very point last night, after one of the more moronic posts by one of the “deniers-in-deed” on here yesterday.
Basically, it dawned on me how few people seem to understand that by not acting just a decade or so ago, we have now “locked in” consequences from global warming that would have been seen as unimaginable at that time. Well, it’s too late to do anything about that now – our inaction has now locked in warming of around two degrees … and we are already experiencing what warming of just over one degree looks like – droughts, fires and (seemingly paradoxically) floods.
If we continue to postpone action for yet another decade, it will be because the people who now claim to “accept the science” are still not willing to accept the consequences of accepting the science**. They may indeed be vaguely in favor of “doing something”, but they continue to oppose any meaningful action if it comes any cost to themselves or their lifestyles. They seem to think there is still some “magic” solution just around the corner that will solve the problem with no effort and no cost. And of course, there are those who deliberately encourage such beliefs, for their own purposes.
This kind of “magical thinking” has always been a problem, but is fast becoming the biggest single impediment to meaningful action on global warming.
If we cannot find a way to counter it, and these people continue to prevaricate, then it will be a mere decade or so more before consequences of truly catastrophic proportions do become inevitable.
** I am ignoring those who are actively working against meaningful action – such as the fossil fuel spruikers – and just concentrating on those who are still “wavering”. There is nothing we can do about the former except arm the latter with the knowledge they need to detect when they are being told lies.
BB
We have already heard some murmurings about his unpopularity. I hope you’re right.
lizzie:
[‘If you disagree with his posts, you’re at liberty to respond accordingly.
No, it just encourages him.’]
Well, there are alternatives: scrolling, blocking. I’ve never blocked anyone, though I do scroll occasionally where a post resembles a thesis.
Here’s one.
Mavis
There are several people I temporarily block until my temper cools. 😉
C@tmomma @ #120 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 9:55 am
You need to read this …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/25/scott-morrison-and-the-big-lie-about-climate-change-does-he-think-were-that-stupid
In the case of some here on PB, Morrison may indeed be correct.
The Flanagan article is a very worthy read. Guytaur has already linked to it.
Despite and on top of the unnecessary pejoratives, singling out the Jews isn’t really necessary. Give anyone anything and they’ll vote for you. But if we are going to talk about the Jews, don’t forget Wran gave them a large slice of Centennial Park which had become sectioned off as part of Eastern Sub Hospital and some war barracks and stuff. It is now Moriah College.
When they send out Simon Birmingham, you can bet your socks they’re trying to “calm our fears”.
Are we running a sweep for when Dutton will knife Scomo?
ItzaDream @ #134 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:16 am
They’re like Daleks against Doctor Who. Ugly on the inside, seething, demonic hatred on the outside covered in a carapace of hardened steel.
lizzie:
[‘There are several people I temporarily block until my temper cools. ‘]
Probably a smart move if you, like me, suffer hypertension.
Alpha Zero @ #147 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 10:35 am
Nah. He’s happy being Goering to Morrison’s Adolf: