Big news on the polling front as Newspoll unveils its first set of results based on what The Australian describes as “an improved methodology following an investigation into the failure of the major published polls”. The old series had been limping on post-election with results appearing every three weeks, but this latest result emerges only a fortnight after the last, presumably portending a return to the traditional fortnightly schedule.
The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 in the result a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 33% (down two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 5% (down two). Interestingly, both leaders’ personal ratings are a lot worse than they were in the old series: Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 43% (down three) with disapproval at 52% (up nine), while Anthony Albanese is at 38% approval (down four, though he was up five last time) and 42% disapproval (up five, though he was down seven last time). No news yet on preferred prime minister, which is presumably still a thing (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead narrows from 46-32 to 46-35).
On the methodological front, the poll has dropped robopolling and is now conducted entirely online. The sample size of 1519 is similar to before (slightly lower in fact), but the field work dates are now Thursday to Saturday rather than Thursday to Sunday. In a column for the newspaper, Campbell White of YouGov Asia-Pacific, which conducts the poll, offers the following on why robopolling has been abandoned:
A decade or so ago, most people had landlines and they tended to answer them. There was very little call screening. This meant getting a representative sample was easier and pollsters did not need to be so skilled in modelling and scaling their data. The truth is, the old days are never coming back. In order to do better, we need to consider what we can do differently. We’ve seen a consistent pattern overseas where telephone polling has become less accurate and online polling more so as fewer people answer phone calls and more and more people are online.
White further notes that “annoying and invasive” robopolling is “answered largely by older people or those who are very interested in politics”, while “busy people who are less interested in politics either don’t answer or hang up”. He also reveals that the new series will “weight the data by age interlocked with education and have precise quotas for different types of electorate throughout Australia”, consistent with YouGov’s methodology internationally.
Hopefully the restated commitment to “greater transparency” means we will shortly see comprehensive details of demographic breakdowns and weightings, a commonplace feature of British and American polling that Australian poll watchers could only envy. Stay tuned.
autocrat @ #539 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 10:46 am
I have found that the item pictured below assists in cases such as you describe. I often use them when reading my own posts.
The politics of climate change does shift votes – to the LNP.
autocrat @ #539 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 10:46 am
frednk @ #542 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 10:38 am
Greg Sheridan once again reiterated on Q and A that he didn’t believe the species humo erectus could not have a moral code without believing in mythical beings. Strange guy.
I have over the last few decades cultivated the ability to largely ignore grammatical problems when reading the intertubes. In spite of this, the redundancies and triple negatives in the quoted sentence are making my eyes bleed
Very sorry one to many nots
In drought-stricken NSW the vote for the LNP rose. In the coal provinces, the vote for the LNP rose. The fight-or-flight response to climate change is herding votes for the LNP. Clear as day.
RI @ #552 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 10:55 am
ALP policy chaos is what shifts votes to the LNP.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was a weak regulatory agency that levied $12 billion worth of fines during its six year existence. This is a tiny sum compared with financial sector profits during that period. The main problem with the CFPB was that it conceptualised the problem as individual bad actors doing bad things. It didn’t recognise that the structures and systems of the financial sector, and its place in the economy, were fundamentally flawed. So it was a classic Warren initiative. Also, note how easy it was for Trump to weaken it. It was a tiny, weak part of the executive branch, easily guttedbecause it didn’t do enough to develop a strong constituency to defend it existence. Again, classic Warren. Typical of her ineffectual small-bore approach to big structural problems.
This sounds good to me 🙂
@australian tweets
#EXCLUSIVE: Executives fear an “unprecedented rise” in workplace activism could cost companies up to 25 per cent in annual revenue.
http://bit.ly/2scAYFz
Oh gosh, I am so shocked and stunned and surprised and…what else is new with the effwits that are supposedly in charge.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/25/my-health-record-failed-to-manage-cybersecurity-and-privacy-risks-audit-finds
RI @ #554 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 10:58 am
Clear as a day full of dust storms and bushfire smoke 🙁
#WeatheronPB. Hot, sunny, smokey and windy in Sydney, 33°.
Kronomex
“Oh gosh, I am so shocked and stunned and surprised and…what else is new with the effwits that are supposedly in charge.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/25/my-health-record-failed-to-manage-cybersecurity-and-privacy-risks-audit-finds
——————
Anyone who thought a Liberal National Party scheme to consolidate personal data about the population which is also of great value to profiteers would not be leaked, hacked or sold on is gullible beyond belief.
Come in spinner!
It’s only of passing interest to note that in respect of Westpac’s contravention of its responsibility to report some 23 million high-risk international transfers to Austrac, in theory it could be fined $483 trillion. I say “of passing interest” as Australia’s second-largest bank will, relative to its wealth and level of illegality, get off lightly. The entire board should resign in disgrace, some of the transfers ostensibly funding terrorism and child exploitation.
It is a tough media environment for the ALP. The Coalition and their associated propaganda units set the agenda and the tone for the news cycle. The ALP can only engage in this space if they are well prepared with concise and powerful arguments and deliver them with consistency, clarity and conviction. If they dont, both the ALP and the policy will suffer in the public’s perception regardless of the quality of the policy.
Yes, there were many examples of good communication by senior ALP leaders. But that isnt enough. They were not effective change leaders and didnt cultivate sufficient background support.
ALP policy is pretty clear, they are not going to export jobs for tokenism.
SK
Top End of Town would have worked if Labor had talked about regulating bank behaviour or establishing a People’s Bank.
Same with a Federal ICAC. Etc. Labor could have argued we are attacking the elites. Clive Palmer Morrison Canavan etc are part of the elite. It would have appealed to One Nation voters.
Kronomex @ #558 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 11:04 am
Why does it suddenly occur to me that David “Big Data” Kalisch (the man behind #censusfail) may have something to do with this fiasco? Perhaps because before he stuffed up our census so badly, he was in charge of the Australian Institute of Health And Welfare, and probably helped establish their “strictest data quality and privacy standards” …
https://www.aihw.gov.au/news-media/news/2018/may-2018/aihw-takes-on-custodianship-of-my-health-record-da
Just a coincidence, I guess 🙁
The politics of climate change is full of perversities. I know some Lib-voters who blame the destruction of marine species on the Greens, for example. The actual cause of the decline is the decline in oxygen levels in the water column. But this does not matter. Cause and blame are different. The rule is that when something goes wrong someone must be blamed. It does not matter who is blamed as long as blame is attached to a plausible culprit, who will be derided and scorned. Victim blaming is a good example of this reflex. There are plenty who blame Labor too, even though Labor are losing the politics of climate change. We have reflexive blame-manufacturing and distribution. This is a part of the tragedy of climate change.
FredNK
If Labor had argued that Call Centres must be based in Australia for transparency purposes and job creation that would have done more to get votes for those wanting job creation and an economic future.
Then the elite propaganda would have failed. Edit: Yes I view Clive Palmer as part of the “Elite”
The LNP are winning the politics of climate change. Sad but true. It makes the tragedy of climate change all the more bitter.
Player One @ #541 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 10:48 am
Yes, I’ve always thought that is where this fiasco is likely to end. And, of course, this would ruin the Australian economy, because digging stuff out of the ground is pretty much all we know how to do these days 🙁
**************************************************
Of course, after studying the evidence in this case the inevitable conclusion must be —
The Federal Department of Rodeos and All Around Fuckups sent a senior executive (SE) on a US study tour to to investigate market moves and scams and while enjoying Five Star (count em) accommodation and attempting to play his favourite porn show on the large screen in his luxurious suite he began to relax to enjoy popcorn and nose candy. To his delight the following occurred —
The movie (picture to we old folk) which began to show was “Holes”* and in his fright when waking from a brief snooze the SE became more delusional than usual and believed that he was watching a futuristic documentary.
After reporting back to his fellow SEs the policy direction of his party became based on the movie – the only question remaining was how deep ❓
So mes engants that is how this once great country began the quest to dig its way to glory whatever the cost. Each must play his part and partake of the fruits of success according to his ……………(sorry I’ve used up my bullshit quotient for the day and can’t go on).
I go now to obtain the referenced movie (CW subtitles for the deaf) to remind me which way is down. I can’t really remember the movie but I like the sound of “Kissin Kate”.
*The award-winning bestseller comes to life in this phenomenally fun, adventure-filled movie starring Emmy Award-winner Shia LaBeouf. Dogged by bad luck stemming from an ancient family curse, young Stanley Yelnats (LaBeouf) is sent to Camp Green Lake, a very weird place that’s not green and doesn’t have a lake. Once there, he’s thrown headlong into the adventure of his life when he and his colorful campmates — Squid, Armpit, Zigzag, Magnet, X-Ray, and Zero — must dig a hole a day to keep the warden at bay. But why? Through it all, Stanley and company must forge fast friendships as they try to unearth the mystery of what’s really going on in the middle of nowhere. Filled with humor and heartwarming messages of friendship and teamwork, HOLES is a treasure everyone will dig.
Cast. Shia LaBeouf as Stanley “Caveman” Yelnats IV. Sigourney Weaver as Louise Walker, the Warden at Camp Green Lake. Jon Voight as Marion “Mr. Sir” Sevillo. Patricia Arquette as Katherine “Kissin’ Kate” Barlow. Tim Blake Nelson as Dr. Khleo Thomas as Hector “Zero” Zeroni. Brenden Jefferson as Rex “X-Ray” Washburn. …
The Coalition will always do the minimum that they can get away with regarding Global Heating. For the past decade, that has been bascically nothing apart from some token gestures. This is still the case, although there has been a subtle change in the language lately. Coalition are now paying lip service. They acknowledge that there is a problem, then immediately changing the subject, wheras before it was a matter of completely ignoring the issue or outright denialism. Of course many Coalition figures are deniers, but they seem to have been told to keep it to themselves.
In future, the minimum that they can get away with might have to include action that might actually be useful, but they will have been forced into it, rather like the Howard Government with their CPRS. But they will have been dragged kicking and screaming. With the Coalition in power, Australia will always lag in effective action on mitigating global heating.
The first step in any plan for effective climate action in Australia is to vote the Coalition out of office.
Simon Katich
“ It is a tough media environment for the ALP. The Coalition and their associated propaganda units set the agenda and the tone for the news cycle.”
——————-
Well yes it is but the labour movement abandoned the “media environment” 50 years ago.
There was a time when it had radio stations and print media (admittedly of limited quality), when over 50% of the workforce were unionised.
I think the Australian labour movement has never had a strategic cell in its collective brain. It seems to endlessly be surprised and whinge about Murdoch/Packer not giving them a “fair go”. It’s made no attempt to actually fund an alternative media.
RI @ #567 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 11:19 am
That’s very true. We have people right here on PB who claim that they “accept the science” on climate change, at the same time as they promote the opening of new thermal coal mines.
I mean, you can’t really get much more “perverse” than that, can you? 🙁
RI
My that is a good description of the post election Labor vs Green merry-go-round
Confessions @ #525 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 10:18 am
So, no, ‘I suck up to Donald Trump, therefore I am immune’ defence will be successful then?
poroti @ #574 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 11:26 am
Exactly. Especially once you realize that when the Labor partisans here attack the Greens (as they do constantly) they are really just using the Greens as a proxy for the left wing of their own party 🙁
One of the escapist tropes used by deniers is the idea that climate change is a part of a ‘natural cycle’, in which temps go up and then come down. They comfort themselves with this notion, which matches other cyclical processes that can identify. The trouble with it of course is that it completely rules out human agency. There is nothing we can do to change such a process. This is the most terrifying thing of all. If global heating continues on its current trajectory before eventually peaking and reversing, the earth’s temp might rise by 10 degrees. We cannot forecast the peak. The deniers simply trust there will be a peak. This is the purist of wishful thinking. It is perfect escapism. It is psychological ‘flight’ from threat. It is piteous, really.
I think the Australian labour movement has never had a strategic cell in its collective brain. It seems to endlessly be surprised and whinge about Murdoch/Packer not giving them a “fair go”. It’s made no attempt to actually fund an alternative media.
Neither does the Labor Party it seems. I heard from Gareth Evans last night that the ALP disbanded its social media unit BEFORE election day! 😯 🙄
For those interested in Brexit, I just noticed there is a new UK election post by Adrian Beaumont up. Doesn’t seem to have been announced:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/11/26/uk-election-minus-16-days/
Why I think the LNP are going to be dragged kicking and screaming back to defending human rights.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/26/its-the-climate-not-immigration-that-keeps-australians-awake-at-night
It has started with Medevac. It will continue up to upholding the refugee convention. Dutton will be distraught.
Same is happening with Climate Change no matter how much some here try to pretend Labor’s loss was all about coal.
One of the tropes published by the blame-makers is that doing things that are totally irrelevant should be done instead of things that are relevant. This is profoundly perverse.
Mostly agree. New daily is kinda there. But it doesnt nearly beat radio and print propaganda handed out often for free and Sky News on TVs all over the place.
The belief that ‘good policy sells itself’ has never been more wrong… even when polls show most people agree with the principles behind the policy. So I disagree with G, even if the ALP had used his suggestions, it would have struggled.
An ALP leader needs to be a super-persuasive communicator – especially with a ‘big target’ suite of policies. Shorten, for all his strong points, wasnt up to this.
This is all part of why I dont mind the ALP going quiet at this stage of the cycle (disagreeing with mundo). Unlike the Coalition, the ALP need to be much more disciplined and honed to be effective in its rage.
Oh FFS!
Looks like land tax reform in SA is on the verge of descending into homeopathy.
Get it together you nongs!
guytaur
“Same with a Federal ICAC. Etc. Labor could have argued we are attacking the elites. Clive Palmer Morrison Canavan etc are part of the elite. It would have appealed to One Nation voters.”
It’s not that simple. ONP voters are scared of change. They support those “elites” that oppose change – or, even better, promise to return Australia to the way we allegedly used to be (i.e. the way they perceive Australia to have been).
RI @ #581 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 11:35 am
What is “perverse” is the deniers-in-deed pretending that opening new thermal coal mines is “totally irrelevant”, especially given that Australia is the third largest carbon contributor to global warming, and that coal usage in our region is escalating rapidly.
A lot of politics is about guilt. The politics of climate change is badly afflicted with this. There is guilt-assignment for the purposes of vote herding. We’re fucked as a result.
The Federal Coalition just keep pushing the boundaries off what they are willing to politicise – now only Coalition MPs are allowed to announce ARC funding outcomes, even in non-Coalition seats!
Also Dandy M, you pointed this out several weeks ago, but I am still in disbelief.
Apparently the Morrison Govt is now requiring the Australian Research Council to have local Coalition MPs make its grant announcements. This is partisanship gone mad. It’s insulting to the independent experts who serve on ARC panels. https://theconversation.com/research-funding-announcements-have-become-a-political-tool-creating-crippling-uncertainty-for-academics-126919 #auspol @ARC_Tracker
https://twitter.com/ALeighMP/status/1196649903973208064?s=20
Zoomster:
Capitalism is one part of human nature.
When “Lucy” made a rock into a tool, she was doing capitalism.
When she took some of the grain she’d ground with her tool and saved it in a shared store so her tribe survived, she was doing society – another part of human nature
When some prick picked up the tool that Lucy had made and used it to prevent the tribe from access to the store unless a fee was paid, that is the action of a rentier, and evil, but also part of human nature.
Encourage the first two, discourage the last.
SK
I am suggesting simple themes Labor could have used for its message. Some of them require a slightly more radical policy agenda to make the point fairly simple to message to voters.
The volatile voters that don’t trust politicians are against the elite. Therefore Labor has to frame its policies as against the elite. It has to be crystal clear with this message and not let itself be framed as part of the elite.
Thats gets those Hanson voters who are voting for them despite the racism.
It gets the LNP voters that want action on climate change but don’t want to pay for it themselves. The low income people. Give them something to vote for. A people’s Bank. Call Centres required to be Australian for transparency consumer protection purposes and job creation is a winner and not protectionist.
Labor has to understand it has to campaign as with some populism. Its how you win.
This is some scary shit. There is no end that this can’t justify.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/rick-perry-says-trump-is-god-s-chosen-one-20191126-p53e1r.html
Kakaru
Consumer Protection for call centre calls and job creation in Australia is restoring the old that the nostalgic view as what they want.
Remember they are viewing with nostalgia an era when we had a regulated mixed market economy and high tariff’s.
P1
It really is pathetic, we are in the middle of a revolution, de-carbonizing our economies is a revolution, and all you can do is chant adani-adani-afani. Labor have made it very clear they are not going to export jobs for tokenism.
SK,
Definitely agree with this. Christmas / summer always provides a reset for Australian politics, and so what is said and done now by political parties will quickly disappear. My advice to ALP MPs and Senators would be to have three weeks off, with families / friends, and do not even look at Australian media. No internet connection would help.
They really need to find a strategy for getting the public’s attention back, and this will not be easy.
The article posted upthread about how the Canadian progressives survived the recent election sounds like a good place to start.
frednk @ #592 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 11:48 am
Do you actually know how few permanent jobs Adani will create? Your mantra that we are “exporting jobs for tokenism” if we do not open the Adani coal mine is not just pathetic, it is demonstrably wrong.
But it doesn’t stop you banging on about it day after day … 🙁
It was beguiledagain who posted it – reposting your stuff, because I think it is well worth repeating:
P1 is a guilt-shop. It’s out On Special. There is just one line though. It is the line that affixes guilt to Labor. Any pretext will do. Labor is always guilty at their shop. Always.
Climate change is a tragedy. It is also a farce.
It is truly jaw dropping how many cases like this keep popping up in the land of ‘truth justice and the American way’. Do I need to mention they are black ? 🙁
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/25/us/baltimore-men-exonerated-murder.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Wind gusts to 74kph. Dust storm.
#WeatheronPB.
RI @ #596 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 11:55 am
If you had won the election, we would probably not be having this discussion. But you lost it. And you lost it because of people like you – people who believe you can have your cake and eat it too.
And you will lose the next one for the same reason. It’s time to get over your loss, and think about how to actually win next time. Just doing the same thing all over again is very, very unlikely to get you there.
The LNP are winning the politics of climate change. Easily. This is the coda of despair.