Big news on the polling front as Newspoll unveils its first set of results based on what The Australian describes as “an improved methodology following an investigation into the failure of the major published polls”. The old series had been limping on post-election with results appearing every three weeks, but this latest result emerges only a fortnight after the last, presumably portending a return to the traditional fortnightly schedule.
The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 in the result a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 33% (down two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 5% (down two). Interestingly, both leaders’ personal ratings are a lot worse than they were in the old series: Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 43% (down three) with disapproval at 52% (up nine), while Anthony Albanese is at 38% approval (down four, though he was up five last time) and 42% disapproval (up five, though he was down seven last time). No news yet on preferred prime minister, which is presumably still a thing (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead narrows from 46-32 to 46-35).
On the methodological front, the poll has dropped robopolling and is now conducted entirely online. The sample size of 1519 is similar to before (slightly lower in fact), but the field work dates are now Thursday to Saturday rather than Thursday to Sunday. In a column for the newspaper, Campbell White of YouGov Asia-Pacific, which conducts the poll, offers the following on why robopolling has been abandoned:
A decade or so ago, most people had landlines and they tended to answer them. There was very little call screening. This meant getting a representative sample was easier and pollsters did not need to be so skilled in modelling and scaling their data. The truth is, the old days are never coming back. In order to do better, we need to consider what we can do differently. We’ve seen a consistent pattern overseas where telephone polling has become less accurate and online polling more so as fewer people answer phone calls and more and more people are online.
White further notes that “annoying and invasive” robopolling is “answered largely by older people or those who are very interested in politics”, while “busy people who are less interested in politics either don’t answer or hang up”. He also reveals that the new series will “weight the data by age interlocked with education and have precise quotas for different types of electorate throughout Australia”, consistent with YouGov’s methodology internationally.
Hopefully the restated commitment to “greater transparency” means we will shortly see comprehensive details of demographic breakdowns and weightings, a commonplace feature of British and American polling that Australian poll watchers could only envy. Stay tuned.
Briefly must be worth 1-2% to any Liberal he campaigns against on the streets. Surely.
I mentioned this before. In the last SA election the local Liberal candidate doorknocked a mate of mine. This was the only place in that street he doorknocked. The mates facebook acct could tell you he is left leaning. He also went to the same school (similar year) as the Liberal candidate.
I joined the dots that the Libs are joining dots for targetted campaigning.
Fortunately the mate is a little more than left leaning and said he wouldnt vote for the Liberals in a fit.
RI @ #600 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 12:01 pm
It is your despair that has driven you to your current way of thinking. It’s time to accept the loss and move on.
Briefly wont accept the loss, any more than he can accept that Shorten was dodgy. It’s not in his programming.
LNP is winning because of people like P1, tokenism before real action. Tokenism that scares the shit out of real voters. Tokenism that stops real action in it’s tracks.
P1….Labor have lost several in a row. We’ve won just the single election in the last quarter-century. We are not going to win the next one either. The LNP run this country. They have nearly always done so. If you want a revision of policy on climate change, talk to the LNP. Labor’s PV is 1/3. The old Labor plurality no longer exists. Labor cannot win as things now stand.
Labor won from opposition just three times in the 20th century following the consolidation of the parties prior to WW1.
We have won once in this century. Looking ahead, we might win another couple of times in the forthcoming 81 years. We should prepare for a long wait. I do not expect to see another Federal Labor Government in my lifetime.
guytaur
‘Remember they are viewing with nostalgia an era when we had a regulated mixed market economy and high tariff’s.”
One Nation voters are viewing with nostalgia an era where we kept out foreign imports, and kept out foreigners as well. There’s nothing progressive about that.
You seem to believe (or want to believe) that all disgruntled voters are yearning for socialism. Most of them are not. They just want to kick someone.
Shorten hatred, Nath you really have issues.
Kakaru
No thats your projection. Your prism through which you are viewing my posts.
I specifically noted that an Australian only call centre can only be regulated into existence if its not on the basis of a trade barrier.
Edit: A reminder Bob Katter stands for a kind of socialism too.
No, that is an absurdly broad definition of definition of capitalism that no economic historian would endorse. The essence of capitalism is that land and labour are treated as commodities, and there is a class structure that hinges on the distinction between a class that owns productive resources, and a class that has to earn a living by selling labour services to that owning class, and a professional managerial class that is employed by the owners to manage the labourers.
frednk @ #605 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 12:06 pm
Real action like opening new thermal coal mines? 🙁
frednk
says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 12:08 pm
Shorten hatred, Nath you really have issues.
______________
Maybe I’m starting to feel for Shorten. Why does he torture himself with the dream of being PM. The people don’t want him to get it. They don’t like it.
Could it happen here ? 😀
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cities-look-to-natural-gas-bans-to-curb-carbon-emissions/
RI @ #606 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 12:07 pm
I honestly wonder why you are a member of a party you so clearly have no confidence in. Perhaps, for both your own good, and for the good of Labor, it is time you moved on and found a party you can believe in?
Let me guess. RI = briefly.
it’s time @ #615 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 12:15 pm
Yes. He changed his moniker several times over a short period, but I don’t think he intended to keep this fact a secret.
nath
“Why does he torture himself with the dream of being PM. ”
Why do you torture us with your unending bitching about Shorten? Move on.
Firefox
Your post regarding the Bushmen of the Kalahari and the Coke Bottle tool, fallen from the sky is informative.
There are two critical distinctions between the the Coke Bottle tool and tool that Lucy makes out of a rock:
1- Lucy makes her tool, it is created from human endeavour., whereas the Coke Bottle appears to have come from the Sky
2 – The supply of Lucy’s tool is not constrained, she can make another, as can someone else
Capitalism is about tools made by human endeavour (human tool making), not about tools in general. That’s the essential human element to it. If one loses that, one does not have capitalism (no matter what one calls it). A key problem with both “financial capitalism” and “land capitalism” is that the mechanism of profit is the restricted supply, of money creation (i.e. a commercial banking license) in the first instance and of land in the second. That’s why “financial capitalism” and “land capitalism” are not actually “capitalism”, and indeed tend to undermine it if allowed to grow beyond the level required for support.
Oh, and of course: “capitalists are tools!”
guytaur
“A reminder Bob Katter stands for a kind of socialism too.”
Katter is no progressive. He wants regulation so that northern Queensland can be put into a time capsule.
Kakaru
Exactly my point. I never said Katter was progressive.
I was pointing out I can see what voters want. You were disputing that.
Kakuru
says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 12:21 pm
nath
“Why does he torture himself with the dream of being PM. ”
Why do you torture us with your unending bitching about Shorten? Move on.
_________________________
The day after the election which Shorten assumed would be his coronation. He slunk out the back into the alley into a waiting car. There his Prime Ministerial ambition lay on the ground amidst other discarded rubbish near a train of dumpsters. Did one have ‘Cleanevent’ written upon it? It would have been fitting.
P1….thanks for the gratuitous advice. I am a life-long subscriber to Labor. I recognise we have a permanent uphill run. Our numbers are few. We have foes everywhere. You are one such. Too bad. You think you know everything…..just like everyone else.
@swrighteconomy tweets
ICYMI – The OECD published its environmental indicators at a glance report last week. And here’s Oz contribution in terms of greenhouse gas emissions per capita… https://twitter.com/swrighteconomy/status/1199085132906258432/photo/1
That graph helps explain why the LNP are winning the politics of climate change.
RI @ #622 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 12:28 pm
Free advice is always worth what you paid for it 🙂
But it was genuinely intended to help 🙁
RI @ #624 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 12:38 pm
Australia leads the OECD! Yay!
How good is Australia?
nath
Do you really think shorten will get another chance. He was given a clear run. There is no way he will get another chance. Whatever the reason, the contribution you and other shorten haters made to Labors loss paid off.
Why not leave him alone.
Nicholas
In the feudal era, your “owners” were called “nobles”, your “labourers” were called “serfs” and your “managers” were called “knights” (and various other kinds of thugs). It’s not surprising that the “owners” / “nobles” have tried to reimpose a structure from which they benefit (and for the moment, they have succeeded); it is disappointing that you appear to have bought their lies.
guytaur
The graph is going to stay exactly as it is until we move to renewables for transport and electricity. Chanting adani,adani,adani is not going to change anything.
frednk @ #629 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 12:49 pm
I suppose it is futile to point out that the only one here chanting “adani,adani,adani” is … you 🙁
It really is no secret that fox news is involved in active measures. Hannity is also up to his neck in it.
Eric Garland
@ericgarland
Fox News and Tucker Carlson rip the tattered American mask off: Carlson is rooting for Russia to invade Europe.
There it is.
Quote Tweet
Acyn Torabi
@Acyn
· 35m
Tucker Carlson: Why do I care what’s going on in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia? And I’m serious, why do I care? And why shouldn’t I root for Russia, which I am
Show this thread
Capitalism predated humanity.
But could it post date humanity?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lomekwi
I daresay he knows all, cos he was part of it until he could see the writing on the wall
Anthony Scaramucci
@Scaramucci
·
18m
He
@potus
won’t get away with it. The next batch of information coming will be even worse.
Quote Tweet
Jamie Gangel
@jamiegangel
· 6h
A Republican Senator speaks out https://nytimes.com/2019/11/25/opinion/my-fellow-republicans-please-follow-the-facts.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share via @NYTOpinion
Those pesky judiciary…
WASHINGTON — The former White House counsel Donald F. McGahn II must testify before House impeachment investigators about President Trump’s efforts to obstruct the Mueller inquiry, a judge ruled on Monday, saying that senior presidential aides must comply with congressional subpoenas and calling the administration’s arguments to the contrary “fiction.”
The 120-page decision by Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson of the Federal District Court for the District of Columbia handed another lower-court victory to House Democrats in their fight to overcome Mr. Trump’s stonewalling.
“Presidents are not kings,” wrote Judge Jackson, adding that current and former White House officials owe their allegiance to the Constitution. “They do not have subjects, bound by loyalty or blood, whose destiny they are entitled to control.”
The Justice Department, which is representing Mr. McGahn in the lawsuit, will appeal, a spokeswoman said. Still, the ruling by Judge Jackson, who was appointed by President Barack Obama, could have broader consequences for the investigation into Ukraine affair.
Spain’s far-right Vox party has refused to sign an all-party declaration condemning violence against women, drawing outrage from civil rights groups and embarrassing its allies in the conservative People’s party.
Vox’s refusal to sign the declaration by Madrid city council on Monday meant that for the first time since a landmark 2004 law on gender violence, local authorities in the Spanish capital were unable to issue a joint all-party statement.
In this month’s national election Vox became the third-largest party in the Spanish parliament, after more than doubling its number of seats with its mix of nationalist, anti-Muslim and anti-feminist rhetoric.
Javier Ortega Smith, a member of both Madrid city council and the national parliament, said the declaration on the UN’s International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women addressed only one side of gender violence.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/25/spains-far-right-vox-blocks-violence-against-women-declaration
ON would be a contributor to Vox in Australian terms….
What does the assertion of resistance by the pop-Right mean for the common subscription to egalitarian values? For freedom and for liberation? The struggle for women’s rights is a struggle for both liberation and equality, and, implicitly, a struggle against patriarchy. Is it a struggle for or against property? I think it is at least a part of the struggle against property-in-humans….against the commoditisation of humans. It includes a declaration that women are not disposable…not expendable. For mine, this is allied to the tragedy of global environmental destruction, a tragedy in which everything is expendable. The irrationality of this is causing me to momentum.
Victoria @ #620 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 12:55 pm
The Repugs have come a long way since their unending criticism (complete with racial undertones), of Obama’s ‘tsars’.
P1….I’m sorry to say I think there is nothing about you that is genuine.
Notice the Fraudenberg’s choice of words, “inspired from” . Not following recommendations but “inspired from” . Yeah, ‘inspired’ just like those crap movies/shows that advertise that they are based on or inspired by ‘real events’ but portray utter fiction.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/nov/26/coalition-labor-china-morrison-albanese-politics-live
RI @ #637 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 1:03 pm
That is your “siege mentality” talking.
C@t
They are so down the rabbit hole. Its mind boggling
Scout says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 7:01 am
Not that simple Zoomster
we also have something called society (which the Coalition hates ie it is all the individual) where we look out for others. Those who have need to recognise there are others
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The two are separate, Zoomster has pretty much explained capitalism for what it is whereas what you refer too is the question of what role does the state take. Is it a passive or active role which basically comes to the heard of the political debate.
Feudalism is very different from capitalism. If you are going to define everything as capitalist because it has different classes or it has inequality or it has technology then the term has no meaning. Your eccentric definition of capitalism has no basis in the history of political economy.
Don’t be surprised if ScoMo suddenly gets religion, Climate Change religion. The road to Damascus is long and tortuous, and Scotty’s the man to travel it.
First he’ll be forced by political opponents, public opinion and the more rational of his own party to review policy.
Then he’ll claim it was all his idea.
Then that he is the Environment’s greatest friend – and always has been. He’s has form with The Banks, the NDIS, the NBN, Aged Care and so on: declaring them to be his policies. This one shouldn’t be too hard to put over, for a man with no shame.
Capitalism is a term used to describe economic relations between social actors. It is only relevant to the social order. It cannot predate society….at least, not meaningfully.
Capitalism is not about technology. It does not cause technological change. It does not halt it. Capitalism makes use of technology to maximise the power/s of the owners of capital….the financial, productive, social, political and personal power/s and privilege/s of these owners. In a sense, capitalism is both a veil of and instrument for the maximisation of such power and privilege. Since this power extends beyond that of any individual it was described by Marx as pertaining to a class. One does not have to identify as a member of a class in order to participate in class privilege or under-privilege, but this does not obviate the existence of class/es, an existence which is predicated on and made possible by the existence of individual property ‘rights’. The very idea of ‘rights’ is clearly social and legal, and therefore embedded in the concept of the Sovereign and/or the State.
There is also some conflict between the idea of ‘human rights’ and the competing ideas of ‘Sovereign rights’ and ‘Property rights.’ The latter are the foundations of capitalism. The former is extra-capitalist.
bakunin says:
Capitalism originated in 13thC Italy, so its hardly “Human Nature”.
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Capitalism in its modern form originated around then but the concept of trade and markets (fruit & veg and other goods) are a common feature across human history.
nath @ 12:27 pm
Your account of Shorten’s election loss reads like nath-porn. Did you type with only one hand?
Player One says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 1:09 pm
RI @ #637 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 1:03 pm
P1….I’m sorry to say I think there is nothing about you that is genuine.
That is your “siege mentality” talking.
No it’s not. It is the result of observation and deduction.
Kakuru says:
Oh for shit’s sake. Not this again. A candidate’s performance in Iowa in a DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY has no relationship to their electability in a NATIONAL ELECTION. Iowa Democrats are mostly white, affluent, and over-educated. They are not at all representative of the state of Iowa, let alone the entire MidWest.
————————————————
Would normally agree with this except Iowa seems to be in play this time thanks to Trump’s handling of the trade war, in the last mid-terms the Democrats won three of the four congressional districts. We know not to place too much importance on mid-terms but has Trump done enough to get those Iowans back on side.
Political donations – The Guardian
The Greens have once again picked up their fight against political donations:
“The fact is that if we banned political donations and introduced election spending caps, then no foreign entity or vested interest would be able to buy their way into parliament,” Richard Di Natale said.
“The additional safeguards against foreign interference supported by both major parties will fail unless real action is also taken on donations reform,” Larissa Waters said.
“It’s time for Labor and the Coalition to join the Greens in calling for banning political donations from all big for-profit corporates and foreign entities so no one – not Clive Palmer and no foreign government – has more influence on Australia’s democracy than our citizens do.”
Keane exposes the duplicity of Porter’s ‘integrity’ Commission, using Angus Taylor as an example of just how neutered it will be. ($)
https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/11/26/taylors-dodgy-doc-shows-up-the-farce-of-a-coalition-integrity-commission/?utm_campaign=Daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&ins=MXZZQVh3UUlZNU1CZG03eUNWbEhlZz09