Essential Research: leader ratings and protest laws

Discouragement for Newspoll’s notion of an Anthony Albanese approval surge, plus a mixed bag of findings on the right to protest.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll still offers nothing on voting intention, though it’s relative interesting in that it features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. Contrary to Newspoll, these record a weakening in Anthony Albanese’s ratings, with approval down three to 37% and disapproval up five to 34%. Scott Morrison also worsens slightly, down two on approval to 45% and up three on disapproval to 41%, and his preferred prime minister read is essentially steady at 44-28 (43-28 last month).

Further questions relate to the right to protest, including the finding that 33% would support laws flagged by Scott Morrison that “could make consumer or environment boycotts illegal”, while 39% were opposed. Fifty-eight per cent agreed the government had “the right to limit citizen protests when it disrupts business”, with 31% for disagree; but that 53% agreed that “protestors should have the right to pressure banks not to invest in companies that are building coal mines”, with 33% disagreeing.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1075 respondents chosen from an online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,832 comments on “Essential Research: leader ratings and protest laws”

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  1. rhwombat:

    Well if the idea is to quarantine the Liberal brand name from the outré howling, then Taylor is one of the ones they’ll have to keep on ice. Probably the only reason we haven’t heard from Christensen yet is the concern that the L in LNP is a bit too close.

  2. Simon Katich @ #310 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 3:29 pm

    It was also the poison of choice of the murdering aunts in Arsenic and Old Lace.

    I believe the poison was arsenic. Otherwise the movie would be called Elderberry Wine and Old Lace.

    They lured them with their home made Elderberry Wine laced with arsenic. Even you’d struggle to tantalise anyone with just your winning smile, sparkling company and a draft of arsenic.

  3. Just wondering if anyone watched 7 news last night? I could have sworn there was a story about the federal government assisting Queensland nickel to reopen.
    My thoughts were now we know what the quid pro quo for Clive’s preferences and then the anti-labor ad blitz.
    No one commented last night and I cannot find any reference to it online.
    Now I’m starting to think I dreamt about it.

  4. lizzie @ #252 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 1:53 pm

    @BelindaJones68
    ·
    47m
    ABC is reporting that Clive Palmer wants to reopen his QLD nickel operations, you know, the one that went broke & the Coalition Govt bailed-out with over $77 mill? Workers didn’t get paid?

    Any politician stupid enough to support Palmer would commit political suicide

    Nup. Palmer is being supported by Coal Canavan.

    Aha! Now I get it. The old political pea and thimble trick.

    1. Give Clive Palmer $77 Million of taxpayers’ $$

    2. Have a secret meeting between Clive Palmer and Scott Morrison

    3. Clive goes to work creating a sham political party

    4. Puts out a casting call for ‘candidates’ and spokesmodels.

    5. Clive carpet bombs the election campaign with the sorts of ads the Coalition wouldn’t dare run against Labor, spending $60 Million and employs a negative meme creator who floods facebook with garbage memes about Labor, at the rate of more than one a day

    6. Clive pockets $17 Million for his trouble

    7. Labor lose the election, and especially so big time in Queensland and Western Australia, the targets of a lot of Clive Palmer’s fly-blown rhetorical flourishes contained in his ads

    8. The Coalition wins the ‘unwinnable election’

    9. Clive and Matt Canavan plan their coal-fired power station for Queensland, using guess who’s coal?

    10. File under Bastardised Democracy for Sale, and you don’t even have to use your own money

  5. One further noteworthy point is that there was a funeral at Yuendumu. I am not sure whether it was on the day before or on the day on which Williams was killed.
    Funerals are often days of heightened tension on Indigenous communities.
    In this case it appears that health staff had left earlier in the day because rocks had been thrown at them.
    Williams is alleged to have breached bail conditions.
    Police are said to have delayed his arrest to enable Williams to attend the funeral.

  6. Paywalled

    As George Pell heads to the High Court for his final legal showdown, his most rabid supporter — the conservative literary journal Quadrant — is salivating at the outcome.
    Since the cardinal was found guilty of child sex abuse, Quadrant, once renowned for its fierce contrarianism and illustrious contributors, has published an ongoing series of scathing articles attacking the jury, the Victorian Court of Appeal, its “childless” chief justice and the state’s legal establishment.
    In that time, the journal has published over 20 pieces, all of them questioning elements of the verdict or seeking to cast Pell as the victim of a larger, media-driven conspiracy.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/11/15/quadrant-magazine-george-pell-defence/


  7. caf says:
    Friday, November 15, 2019 at 3:26 pm

    You seem to want to ignore that the Greens scuttled a bypartisan response…

    This is arrant nonsense – self-evidently if the response had been bipartisan then it would have passed no matter what the Greens did (which is exactly why Rudd choose to negotiate with the Coalition rather than the Greens at the time).

    The bipartisan agreement was scuttled by the Liberals’ partyroom.

    To scuttle it both anti labor parties had to vote against it, and they did.

  8. You can all relax.

    When Bolt was talking about the porous border between justice and politics he was really thinking of Taylor and Elliott.

  9. Even you’d struggle to tantalise anyone with just your winning smile, sparkling company and a draft of arsenic.

    Dont forget the asparagus risotto laced with butter, mascarpone cheese and parmesan.

    And I can introduce my mother, who is a most entertaining hamster.

  10. Aqualung @ #319 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 3:39 pm

    Just wondering if anyone watched 7 news last night? I could have sworn there was a story about the federal government assisting Queensland nickel to reopen.
    My thoughts were now we know what the quid pro quo for Clive’s preferences and then the anti-labor ad blitz.
    No one commented last night and I cannot find any reference to it online.
    Now I’m starting to think I dreamt about it.

    Perhaps you saw this article:

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/cobalt-and-nickel-opportunities-can-bring-jobs-to-north-queensland-canavan/vp-BBWJndj

  11. Caf and RHwombat – Christensen is probably in Manilla. Can’t argue against the greens form there… In fact several of his mates should follow his lead…

  12. @jonkuldelka tweets

    There is no middle ground on facts. There are just facts. Once that’s sorted you can work out what to do about them. If we’re not doing facts any more then I suppose the middle ground is somewhere between thinking and praying. https://twitter.com/JoshBBornstein/status/1195085121235275776

    @JoshBBornstein tweets

    It was great to hear Geraldine Doogue asking how we “find the middle ground” on climate change this morning.
    #yourabcptsd

  13. Thanks Don Key. That must have been it. I wasn’t focusing 100% because it featured canavan but my ears pricked up at the mention of Clive and his refinery.

  14. Cat

    One of the reasons amongst others I want the Democrats to win and I think Sanders or Warren would be best is tackling the whole misinformation apparatus.

    Warren has been upfront about wanting to break up Facebook.

    A good place to start. Make the platform smaller so regulation can be done as the platform is not too big to fail. Good antitrust laws in the US will help the world immensely let alone with all the other regulations on the out of control neo liberal free market rip capitalism the GOP practice.

    It can even help us regain a little control of information here too.

  15. frednk:

    To scuttle it both anti labor parties had to vote against it, and they did.

    Once the Coalition was voting against it, it was no longer “bipartisan” in any way. Why would you think it would fare any better than the later deal the Gillard government did? Neither were supported by the Coalition, in the end.

  16. Simon Katich @ #311 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 3:58 pm

    Even you’d struggle to tantalise anyone with just your winning smile, sparkling company and a draft of arsenic.

    Dont forget the asparagus risotto laced with butter, mascarpone cheese and parmesan.

    And I can introduce my mother, who is a most entertaining hamster.

    Was she the love interest for Manuel’s hamster in Fawlty Towers?

  17. I know you’ve all been on the edge of your seats waiting for this … 🙂 … it’s more exciting than “Bird of the Year” …

    Remember, the questions were:

    1. Do you believe that opening the Adani mine will have no impact on coal supply and demand?
    2a. Do you support the approval of the Adani coal mine?
    2b. Do you support the approval of any other coal mines in the Galilee basin?

    Instead of declaring people must be deniers, greenies, pro-coal, anti-coal, or simply illogical for giving each response, I have just arranged the responses by popularity, and for each response I have tried to come up with a plausible and rational explanation as to why you might give such a response. Sometimes this wasn’t easy … and sometimes there was more than one possible reason – but I think I have managed to come up with the most likely reason in each case. This has been an interesting exercise in getting inside the heads of people that I might not agree with … I still don’t agree with them, but at least now I may be able to understand them a bit better!

    So here are the results. First, the Q1 Q2a Q2b responses (Y or N) – then the total votes – then a possible “rational” interpretation:

    N N N – 8 votes – Adani would affect supply or demand for coal, and new mines in the Galilee basin should NOT be approved. A rational response if Australian coal contributes significantly to C02 emissions both in Australian and global terms, and Australia needs to reduce this.

    Y Y Y – 2 votes – Adani would NOT affect supply or demand for coal, and new mines in the Galilee basin should be approved. A rational response if Australian coal’s contribution to C02 emissions are expected to decline sufficiently rapidly without either political or economic intervention.

    Y N N – 1 vote – Adani would NOT affect supply or demand for coal, but new mines in the Galilee basin should NOT be approved. A rational response if Australia should reduce the contribution of Australian coal to C02 emissions primarily for political reasons.

    N Y Y – 1 vote – Adani would affect supply or demand for coal, but new mines in the Galilee basin should be approved. A rational response if economic consequences are significantly more important than either the political consequences, or reducing C02 emissions.

    Y Y N – 1 vote – Adani would NOT affect supply or demand for coal, Adani should be approved, but other mines in the Galilee basin should NOT be approved. A rational response if political consequences are more important than either the economic consequences, or reducing C02 emissions.

    Now, without going back and peeking – see if you can see which posters gave which responses. You might be surprised – I was! 🙂

    Apologies if I missed any responses.

  18. Labor welcomes news @BehrouzBoochani has had the opportunity to depart PNG. We look forward for Mr Boochani having the opportunity to permanently resettle in a third country as soon as possible, wherever that may be.Full statement pic.twitter.com/0047vn2PZu— Kristina Keneally (@KKeneally) November 14, 2019

    With her customary finesse, Kristina skates neatly around the inconvenient truth that it was Labor who sent Behrouz to Manus in 2013. For the record… https://t.co/VoYBXa1HhY— Mike Carlton (@MikeCarlton01) November 15, 2019

    #neverforget

  19. Pegasus @ #292 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 2:59 pm

    A searing FDOTM cartoon:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/15/here-are-some-of-the-real-quiet-australians

    Could someone please advise how to reproduce this image on PB.

    TIA

    I used Snagit to copy the item and pasted the image to my desktop and used Postimage.org to retain the item and enable posting to PB. Windows 10 has Screen Snip which works in similar fashion to Snagit >/b>

  20. With her customary finesse, Kristina skates neatly around the inconvenient truth that it was Labor who sent Behrouz to Manus in 2013. For the record…

    Oh FFS. They didnt keep him there for 6 years.

  21. caf @ #330 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 4:17 pm

    frednk:

    To scuttle it both anti labor parties had to vote against it, and they did.

    Once the Coalition was voting against it, it was no longer “bipartisan” in any way. Why would you think it would fare any better than the later deal the Gillard government did? Neither were supported by the Coalition, in the end.

    The CEP laws would still be in place had Gillard not been white-anted from within.

  22. Sad to note the passing of Tony Mann, one of the great contributors to WA cricket. First century scored by a night watchman in test cricket.

  23. guytaur:

    Pell supporters need to watch themselves as some are going very close to committing contempt of court.

    One of the most rabid – Bolt – claimed recently in Murdoch’s rags that the majority in Pell’s appeal wasn’t up to scratch with criminal law, on the basis that they didn’t practice it when at the bar. Bolt’s an ignoramus, still smarting from a finding that he contravened of s18c of the RDA, almost a decade ago.

  24. “What are the side effects of elderberry? ”
    The worst side effect is trying to stop the urge to speak in an outrageous French accent.

  25. Simon Katich

    Odds on they would have. Labor took great pains to show they were just as ‘fuck off’ to reffos as the Coalition lest the 2GB+Telegraph demographic start frothing. The only difference could have been Labor possibly accepting the NZ offer to take 150.

  26. Steve777 @ #321 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 4:24 pm

    C@t @3:44PM.
    That would be very serious corruption if true but it seems all too plausible.

    Corruption in plain sight. It’s probably a bridge too far, as you say, but $444 Million to The Great Barrier Reef Foundation (and aren’t they doing a great job of standing by while the GBR dies?), and the $30 Million to Fox to broadcast womens’ sport, plus the massive tax refunds that News Corp seems to be getting regularly these days, starting with the gift of one from Joe Hockey straight after Abbott won the 2013 election, spring readily to mind. Just sayin’

    The rich get tax concessions and the poor pay the bill, and then like herded sheep vote for more of the same at the next election.

  27. Mavis @ #331 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 4:34 pm

    guytaur:

    Pell supporters need to watch themselves as some are going very close to committing contempt of court.

    One of the most rabid – Bolt – claimed recently in Murdoch’s rags that the majority in Pell’s appeal wasn’t up to scratch with criminal law, on the basis that they didn’t practice it when at the bar. Bolt’s an ignoramus, still smarting from a finding that he contravened of s18c of the RDA, almost a decade ago.

    And what of those slandering the motives of a reporter doing his job?

  28. Here you are.

    Labor and the Greens should admit there was fault on both sides and move on. Or not. It’s fine for Labor and the Greens to hate each other – they hate themselves internally just as much, and still manage to keep some sort of show on the road. The two parties have worked together constructively in the ACT for a decade. The Greens and Labor both want climate action, to varying degrees, and are fundamentally on the same side. Blaming either Labor or the Greens for Australia’s climate failure is ridiculous.

    While everybody’s hating everybody, let’s not forget who the real enemies of climate action are in this country: the Coalition. It’s way too easy to pick on the clown deniers who say it’s all crap, from Gerard Rennick to Barnaby Joyce to Craig Kelly. The really dangerous opponents of climate action are the ones who say they accept the science, but whose every action speaks to the exact opposite. It’s actions, not words, that count. The Coalition is full of these coal-huggers, from bottom to top – with the Marshall government in South Australia a notable exception.

    And if there was one person who broke climate politics in Australia, it’s Tony Abbott, who spied a personal political opportunity in 2009, sold the truth down the river and, in 2014 in an act of pre-Trumpism, became the world’s first national leader to abolish a carbon price.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/15/2019/1573787713/2009-forever

  29. Dead Parrot Society and Inner city lunatic
    @MyFirstCousin
    ·
    1h
    Here’s a thing, Clive Palmer pulls out of the Townsville nickel refinery owing $millions to the workforce and this government rewards him while the CFMEU is fined for demanding a womens’ toilet. No wonder Canavan won’t release the documents.

  30. Odds on they would have. Labor took great pains to show they were just as ‘fuck off’ to reffos as the Coalition lest the 2GB+Telegraph demographic start frothing. The only difference could have been Labor possibly accepting the NZ offer to take 150.

    They would have had to deal with an internal backlash. And a desertion of many voters. I believe they would have found better options than what has happened to these people for the last 6 years.

    It is moot. One party has caused this prolonged detention. It isnt the ALP.

  31. The title of that Monthly article by Paddy Manning is :

    2009 forever
    Blame the Coalition, not the Greens, for Australia’s decade of climate dysfunction

  32. “With her customary finesse, Kristina skates neatly around the inconvenient truth that it was Labor who sent Behrouz to Manus in 2013. For the record…

    Oh FFS. They didnt keep him there for 6 years.”

    It was the Coalition who insisted that Manus and Nauru be re-opened. The deliberately blocked the Malaysia solution, it was the Coalition who did not co-operate with an expert review. It was they who exploited irregular immigrants for political gain. It was the Coalition who issued press releases, accusing them of being terrorists, muderers, rapists, carriers of dread diseases who took Australian jobs and bludged on the dole.

    And IT IS THE COALITION WHO KEPT THEM THERE FOR 6 YEARS, rejecting NZ’s offer of resettlement.

  33. Steve777 @ #357 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 5:06 pm

    “With her customary finesse, Kristina skates neatly around the inconvenient truth that it was Labor who sent Behrouz to Manus in 2013. For the record…

    Oh FFS. They didnt keep him there for 6 years.”

    It was the Coalition who insisted that Manus and Nauru be re-opened. The deliberately blocked the Malaysia solution, it was the Coalition who did not co-operate with an expert review. It was they who exploited irregular immigrants for political gain. It was the Coalition who issued press releases, who accusing them of being terrorists, muderers, rapists, carriers of dread diseases who took Australian jobs and bludged on the dole.

    And IT IS THE COALITION WHO KEPT THEM THERE FOR 6 YEARS, rejecting NZ’s offer of resettlement.

    And it is Labor who fell into line behind them because none of them had the skill or courage to argue against it.

  34. lizzie @ #350 Friday, November 15th, 2019 – 4:49 pm

    Here you are.

    Labor and the Greens should admit there was fault on both sides and move on. Or not. It’s fine for Labor and the Greens to hate each other – they hate themselves internally just as much, and still manage to keep some sort of show on the road. The two parties have worked together constructively in the ACT for a decade. The Greens and Labor both want climate action, to varying degrees, and are fundamentally on the same side. Blaming either Labor or the Greens for Australia’s climate failure is ridiculous.

    While everybody’s hating everybody, let’s not forget who the real enemies of climate action are in this country: the Coalition. It’s way too easy to pick on the clown deniers who say it’s all crap, from Gerard Rennick to Barnaby Joyce to Craig Kelly. The really dangerous opponents of climate action are the ones who say they accept the science, but whose every action speaks to the exact opposite. It’s actions, not words, that count. The Coalition is full of these coal-huggers, from bottom to top – with the Marshall government in South Australia a notable exception.

    And if there was one person who broke climate politics in Australia, it’s Tony Abbott, who spied a personal political opportunity in 2009, sold the truth down the river and, in 2014 in an act of pre-Trumpism, became the world’s first national leader to abolish a carbon price.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/15/2019/1573787713/2009-forever

    Why is it difficult for people to comprehend that Labor and the Greens are much further apart in ideology than Labor and the Liberals ?

  35. https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/15/2019/1573787713/2009-forever

    “Who does it suit for Labor and the Greens to keep blaming each other for the failure of Kevin Rudd’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme legislation in 2009–10? The Coalition, of course. Throughout this week’s climate apocalypse, the major-party line has been that nothing the Greens say about climate change can be taken seriously because they voted against the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. Let’s unpick that argument a bit – nobody else is going to do it.

    It is undisputed that Labor’s strategy with the CPRS in 2009 was to sideline the Greens and negotiate the scheme with the then Opposition leader, Malcolm Turnbull. The more the Greens complained – as they did – that Rudd’s emissions-reduction targets were too low, and that the scheme was too brown, the happier Labor was. Labor was also happy to have a double-dissolution trigger in its back pocket and the first vote, in August, went down with the Coalition and Greens in the Senate voting against it, as universally expected. Bob Brown wrote to Rudd seeking talks and got no reply.

    ….Australia’s politics broke when Tony Abbott rolled Turnbull by a single vote on December 1, and the Liberal party room voted decisively to oppose the CPRS. Suddenly – literally in the middle of a debate in the Senate – Labor needed the Greens. They had no plan B. Having barred the Greens for months, did Labor now ask for the Greens’ support? Sit down to talk? No. It was a take-it-or-leave it proposition. Should Labor have tried to negotiate a compromise? In my view, yes. It might have worked.

    That day the Greens helped vote down the CPRS a second time, and they have stood by the decision even in retrospect. Was that the right call? No. ….

    At their most expansive, Labor would have you believe that everything that followed was the Greens’ fault, right up to the present day. Rudd went to Copenhagen without an emissions trading scheme (he still had his targets), the conference failed, and a wounded leader came back a basket case. The rest is history.

    Rubbish. Firstly, it wasn’t the Greens’ fault that Abbott rolled Turnbull. It wasn’t the Greens’ fault that Copenhagen failed. It wasn’t the Greens’ fault that Rudd lost his nerve and decided against calling a double-dissolution election, as he was primed to do, while he was still riding high in the polls and the unpopular Abbott was finding his feet. Specifically, it wasn’t the Greens’ fault that Labor’s darkest internal forces started to rally behind challenger Julia Gillard on a dump-the-CPRS platform.

    Most specifically – and this is almost always overlooked – the Greens tried, off their own bat, to put a compromise plan to Labor in February 2010, ahead of the government’s third and final attempt to pass the CPRS. On Christine Milne’s account, Penny Wong summarily rejected the Greens’ written proposal at a meeting in Hobart, saying “I’m not even going to show this to the prime minister.” This is not disputed in Margaret Simons’ recent biography of Penny Wong. The CPRS bill went through the House that month, when the deposed Malcolm Turnbull crossed the floor, and was reintroduced to the Senate. There was still time for Labor and the Greens to talk.

    Instead, Rudd made the gravest error of his prime ministership by walking away from the greatest moral challenge of our time and shelving the CRPS. In The Killing Season, he argues that he was forced into a premature decision by a devastating leak to The Sydney Morning Herald, and in his recent memoir explicitly points the finger at Gillard’s office. His polling numbers collapsed, and the rest truly was history.
    :::::
    Abbott put the country back a decade and counting, and his influence lives on in the Morrison government. That’s Australia’s problem on climate right there.”

    ———-

    This

    Most specifically – and this is almost always overlooked – the Greens tried, off their own bat, to put a compromise plan to Labor in February 2010…

    is a fact I have repeatedly brought up here over many years.

  36. SK

    They would have had to deal with an internal backlash.

    True veeeery moot but I have great faith in the Labor RW’s ability to have ensured the Coal and Labor positions remained very ‘adjacent’

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