Essential Research: budget surplus and economic management

Essential Research’s latest suggests voters still give the Coalition the edge on economic management, but are nervous about their prioritisation of surplus over stimulus.

It hasn’t yet appeared on the organisation’s website, but The Guardian had reports on Tuesday concerning the latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which is still holding its fire on voting intention. There’s the usual general report on the survey from Katharine Murphy, plus analysis from pollster Peter Lewis that features detailed tables for two of the key questions.

The headline finding is that 56% would favour prioritising economic stimulus at the cost of a later budget surplus to avoid a downturn, compared with 33% who favour a surplus as first priority. Other indicators of economic sentiment were more favourable for the government: only 29% of respondents deemed the government’s economic management the most likely cause of the IMF’s recent downgrade in Australia’s growth forecast, compared with 52% for factors outside the government’s control most likely to blame (comprising 42% for global factors and 10% for local ones), and 49% expressed greater trust in the Coalition to handle economic management compared with 34% for Labor (compared with 44% to 29% when the question was last asked in March). A question on the Extinction Rebellion movement found more favourable sentiment than you might have expected from following the news: 52% expressed support for the campaign, while 44% were opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1033 respondents out of the pollster’s online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,706 comments on “Essential Research: budget surplus and economic management”

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  1. SK
    An Invictus re-run but closer to the imagining.
    The 2019 World Cup team is the real thing.
    Quite inspiring, really.
    Who’s a Jaapie now?

  2. #weatheronPB. Hot and cloudy in Sydney, got into the low 30s at most sites. Hasn’t rained in 3 weeks but rain is expected later today.

  3. The XR’s and their sponsors, the Greens, are using extra-democratic methods to promote themselves. This is a disaster for the environment. But it suits the Greens, who clearly think parliamentary action is just one of the methods they want to use. The Greens are becoming an anti-democratic outfit. If they persist with this then Labor will be forced to put them near the bottom of their HTVs.

    It’s not possible to provide electoral support to a party that is willing to contest the rule of law in the streets.

  4. Donald Trump booed again — this time at Madison Square Garden

    Channelling COmpact crank…. Yeah, but that is in front of a UFC crowd. Bunch of inner city liberal hipsters. What would you expect?

  5. ‘Kronomex says:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 2:33 pm

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-trail-of-mistakes-and-unforced-errors-taylor-faces-his-biggest-test-20191101-p536jv.html

    Angus Taylor: “…Taylor has, in fact, been blessed by good fortune from the very start. He went to the elite King’s School in Parramatta, then to the University of Sydney and on to Oxford with his Rhodes. McKinsey snapped him up as a management consultant,…”

    All of the above and he’s still as thick as two besser blocks cemented together.’

    …which would be why he is the minister for energy in a Government that is busy promoting more fossil fuel use and Bandt, Australian Greens spokesperson for energy is totally useless and powerless to do anything.

    Nothing like a smug sense of superiority when you have got nothing else.

  6. Kronomex @ #1551 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 2:33 pm

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-trail-of-mistakes-and-unforced-errors-taylor-faces-his-biggest-test-20191101-p536jv.html

    Angus Taylor: “…Taylor has, in fact, been blessed by good fortune from the very start. He went to the elite King’s School in Parramatta, then to the University of Sydney and on to Oxford with his Rhodes. McKinsey snapped him up as a management consultant,…”

    All of the above and he’s still as thick as two besser blocks cemented together.

    And as lightweight. 🙂

  7. RI @ #1538 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 2:15 pm

    The XR’s have made their objectives even less obtainable than they were 6 months ago. Very sad. The issue is profoundly important and they have reduced to it street theatre and mock war.

    They are playing fight-politics. This is a game they absolutely cannot win. The cost of their game-playing will be the further conspicuous and deliberate destruction of the environment by the Right. The XR’s are the counter-face of Rightist exploitation of the environment for political purposes.

    You wish!

    How is the view from over there … over there on the wrong side of history, I mean?

  8. If Scott Morrison is booed will he attempt to ram hastily drafted anti-booing legislation through Parlaiment with 10-year jail sentences for offenders? If so, will he demand that Labor unconditionally support it or be condemnerd as a friend of booers? And will Labor cave?

  9. guytaur says:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 2:27 pm
    @GetUP tweets

    The government wants a culture war that pits jobs against climate – because it doesn’t have a plan for either.

    The same could equally well be said of the Greens, who also exploit the jobs/environment binary whenever they can.

  10. The 2019 World Cup team is the real thing.

    Indeed. The camera moving down the line was a thousand words.
    Was nice that Pienaar was there tho.

    I was a little shocked at how much I was barracking for them…. till I remembered who they were playing. The back story helped.

  11. RI @ #1555 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 2:38 pm

    It’s not possible to provide electoral support to a party that is willing to contest the rule of law in the streets.

    It is not about the Greens … or any other party. In case you haven’t noticed, XR are not asking for electoral support.

    They, like many others, have realized that playing politicis is unlikely to get them a solution. So they are using alternative – and well tried, and in the long run highly effective – means 🙁

  14. In the 1920s and 30s the NSDAP – the Nazi Party – fought elections. But they also created civil disturbances as a political tactic. Disturbance was created for its own sake, but also in order to discredit the Republic and especially the Social Democrats, the Communists and the unions. The parliamentary and industrial left are also among the targets of the Greens and their sub-sects.

    The XR’s are an informal Green militancy, as is the Adani convoy gig. These sit very ill with a parliamentary party committed to the rule of law and legislative processes.

  15. Greensborough Growler @ #1550 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 2:33 pm

    Trump went to Madison Square Gardens, NY last night. The boos were deafening. Much louder than the recent Washington baseball crowd.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1190819199431725057

    I can see why Trump did that. He always doubles down. He obviously thought he would be among fans at an MMA fight, and New York is not Washington. However, for someone who just abandoned New York for Florida, his political antenna need tuning.

  17. C@tmomma @ #1567 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 2:51 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1550 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 2:33 pm

    Trump went to Madison Square Gardens, NY last night. The boos were deafening. Much louder than the recent Washington baseball crowd.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1190819199431725057

    I can see why Trump did that. He always doubles down. He obviously thought he would be among fans at an MMA fight, and New York is not Washington. However, for someone who just abandoned New York for Florida, his political antenna need tuning.

    Further reports from unbiased witnesses casts doubts on the original story.

    https://www.axios.com/trump-booed-by-ufc-new-york-crowd-0a8af07d-51f3-4fcd-9d49-2f744258e84e.html

  20. Climate change is an existential threat to us all. There can hardly be anyone left on the planet who is unaware of this. Threats produce two primary responses in us – flight or fight. Flight responses to the threat of climate change include withdrawal, denial, disengagement and escapist behaviours. Fight responses include campaigns such as those raised by Bolt and Co on the Right and the militancy of the XR’s and the Green-Adani voices.

    If we are going to deal with Climate Change we have to dispense with both Flight and Fight. Neither will work.

  26. Greensborough Growler @ #1569 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 2:54 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1567 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 2:51 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1550 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 2:33 pm

    Trump went to Madison Square Gardens, NY last night. The boos were deafening. Much louder than the recent Washington baseball crowd.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1190819199431725057

    I can see why Trump did that. He always doubles down. He obviously thought he would be among fans at an MMA fight, and New York is not Washington. However, for someone who just abandoned New York for Florida, his political antenna need tuning.

    Further reports from unbiased witnesses casts doubts on the original story.

    https://www.axios.com/trump-booed-by-ufc-new-york-crowd-0a8af07d-51f3-4fcd-9d49-2f744258e84e.html

    Nope. Doesn’t sound especially positive to me. One guy in a seat in one of the expensive seats gives a raised clenched fist to Trump but that was the most positive thing I saw or heard. And I watched it twice.

  30. I trust the persons who glued themselves to the road cleaned up any toxic residues when they had completed their illegal activities.

  34. guytaursays:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 1:57 pm

    Barney

    Yeah yeah. Labor did not set detention as their policy. Labor did not accept the framing of refugees as illegals and accept terms like genuine refugees over the years.

    Labor had nothing to do with the slippery slope of accepting demonising of refugees as an acceptable political framing.

    Labor set up RoboDebt, the Government chose to use it the way they have, just as there was nothing in the setting up of the island detention centres that meant the Government had to treat them so abhorrently.

    You seem to be saying that because Labor has been in Government in the past they are responsible for the actions of every subsequent one.

  36. I can’t find anything in the Australian Greens policy statements that indicate that the Greens plan to stop iron ore mining.
    I suppose it is possible to mine, mill, transport ore to a harbour, load it and ship the ore and doing so with zero emissions PLUS having all this in place by Zero/2030. So it might be just that an unintended consequence of Zero/2030 is that we have to stop mining iron ore.
    Actually, the policy statement says that mining can bring some benefits. Then the various policies and objectives hedge mining activities with so many constraints that the mining capital will go elsewhere. I notice that they are a bit coy about the impact of taking another 90,000,000 hectares out of mining exploration altogether.
    The two policies here are (1) to double the conservation estate.
    (2) ban mining exploration in the mining estate.
    They are a also bit coy about the costs of closing down existing exploration leases and licences.
    But, never fear, the first reliable having been established (constrain investment at every turn) the two follow on reliables are there in black and white:
    1. None of this must make any difference to the standard of living and lifestyles of the Inner Urbs.
    2. The hundreds of thousands of rural and regional victims will be tended properly through: ‘Just transition assistance should be provided to communities and workers affected by job transitions towards sustainable industries.’
    I note in this context that there is serious concern in the UK about capital strike/capital flight should Corbyn win. This would be on top of the capital flight as the supply chains are transferred to mainland EU.

  38. Boerwar @ #1586 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 3:29 pm

    I suppose it is possible to mine, mill, transport ore to a harbour, load it and ship the ore and doing so with zero emissions.

    Well, it is certainly possible to do it with net zero emissions, which is their actual … you know … policy. Actually, this is also Labor’s policy, I believe. Or I should say was. Who knows what their policy is now?

    Not that you would be interested in such mundane details 🙁

  44. Rex Douglas @ #1593 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 3:56 pm

    We voters should be better than this…

    Further to the above, if you think we have a refugee problem now, just wait a few years …

    Coastal areas across South-East Asia have already seen major floods and seawater incursion linked to climate change.

    New research this week showed that at least 300 million people worldwide are living in places at risk of inundation by 2050 — a much bleaker picture than previous data predicted.

    Also, anybody still in the market for a beachfront property should perhaps think again 🙁

  47. lizzie @ #1598 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 4:20 pm

    Washington: The Trump administration is refusing to take in thousands of Iraqis who risked their lives helping US forces during the Iraq War, cutting the number of high-priority refugees allowed into the United States this year and drastically slowing background checks they must undergo.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/under-trump-iraqis-who-helped-us-war-are-stalled-in-refugee-system-20191103-p536z6.html

    Slow motion ethnic cleansing of the United States. Just not as violent as the other kind.

  48. If Asian countries stop buying thermal coal, Australia will stop selling it to them.

    Until then, you supply-siders should go back to laughing into your Laffer curves!

  49. “Mining billionaires don’t march in the streets. They just pick up the phone…”

    And when Scummo, or one of his other paid for mates, feels his rectum violently vibrating he has to remove the wi-fi dildophone to answer the call from the master that requires his services at that moment.

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