Essential Research: budget surplus and economic management

Essential Research’s latest suggests voters still give the Coalition the edge on economic management, but are nervous about their prioritisation of surplus over stimulus.

It hasn’t yet appeared on the organisation’s website, but The Guardian had reports on Tuesday concerning the latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which is still holding its fire on voting intention. There’s the usual general report on the survey from Katharine Murphy, plus analysis from pollster Peter Lewis that features detailed tables for two of the key questions.

The headline finding is that 56% would favour prioritising economic stimulus at the cost of a later budget surplus to avoid a downturn, compared with 33% who favour a surplus as first priority. Other indicators of economic sentiment were more favourable for the government: only 29% of respondents deemed the government’s economic management the most likely cause of the IMF’s recent downgrade in Australia’s growth forecast, compared with 52% for factors outside the government’s control most likely to blame (comprising 42% for global factors and 10% for local ones), and 49% expressed greater trust in the Coalition to handle economic management compared with 34% for Labor (compared with 44% to 29% when the question was last asked in March). A question on the Extinction Rebellion movement found more favourable sentiment than you might have expected from following the news: 52% expressed support for the campaign, while 44% were opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1033 respondents out of the pollster’s online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,706 comments on “Essential Research: budget surplus and economic management”

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  1. Pegasus @ #1478 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 12:39 pm

    Back in the day, Greg Jericho, aka Grog, was quite the popular ALP standard bearer on this site; so many admirers. Now his attitudes have changed and he is reviled by some of the same ALP PB posters who dominate this blog.

    How ironic.

    I don’t hold it against, Grog. We go way back and I will always respect him for having the courage of his convictions. 🙂

  2. Actually, I’ve got a great idea. The government should make breaking the law – any law – against the law.

    That’ll show people they mean business!

  4. Paddy Manning – Quiet, Australians: we are well down the slippery slope to becoming a police state:

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/01/2019/1572575141/quiet-australians

    Revelations in the Nine newspapers this morning that Victoria Police are pursuing the alleged whistleblowers in the Helloworld scandal just go to show that the federal government is thoroughly insincere about trying to restore press freedoms in this country, which have been eroded over the last two decades. The fact that this comes on the day that our prime minister declares [$] a crackdown on climate activists, especially those “targeting businesses and firms who provide goods or services to firms they don’t like”, suggests Australia is well on the way to becoming a police state. This week we have seen cowardly, thuggish behaviour by Victoria Police, who have sometimes outnumbered protesters, outside a mining industry conference, with social media showing officers wielding batons against unarmed protesters, attacking journalists and apparently flashing white-power symbols. That’s under the Andrews Labor government, and it comes as the Palaszcuk Labor government in Queensland just passed the most repressive anti-protest laws since the Joh Bjelke-Petersen era.
    ::::
    “This is not about free speech, it’s not about the ability to protest, these people are completely against our way of life,” Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton told Channel Nine today. And so it has happened: the national security measures we were told were necessary to protect Australians against terrorists and paedophiles are now going to be deployed against – you guessed it – climate activists. And if you think they’ll stop there, you would be mistaken. Unions? NGOs? They’re not quiet Australians. Decoded, the prime minister’s exhortations against a “new form of secondary boycott” today would even ban the ethical investment and consumer-choice movements. “Together with the attorney-general, we are working to identify mechanisms that can successfully outlaw these indulgent and selfish practices that threaten the livelihoods of fellow Australians,” said the prime minister, “especially in rural and regional areas, and especially here in Queensland. We will take our time to get it right, but be assured we are on the job.” Assured? You’ve got to be joking.

    Here in Victoria premier Andrews has expressed his overwhelming support for the police force against the actions of the anti-mining protesters.

    His reasons pretty much mirror some of the same sentiments as expressed by Dutton.

  6. Greensborough Growler @ #1487 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 12:52 pm

    Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1481 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 12:45 pm

    Pegasussays:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 12:39 pm

    Back in the day, Greg Jericho, aka Grog, was quite the popular ALP standard bearer on this site; so many admirers. Now his attitudes have changed and he is reviled by some of the same ALP PB posters who dominate this blog.

    How ironic.

    And up jumps Peg, demonstrating that she doesn’t do nuance either.

    Barney,

    I just find his continuous whingeing and negative takes on just about any issue wearing. But, I suppose now he’s a journo on the Guardian he has to toe their party line.

    All his graphs give me a headache as well. He does too much nuance sometimes! 😆

  7. Andrews

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/scuffles-between-protesters-and-police-continue-outside-melbourne-mining-conference-20191030-p535kh.html

    Premier Daniel Andrews has slammed the actions of anti-mining demonstrators as appalling and defended the force used by police, amid another day of violent clashes that included more than a dozen arrests and a TV reporter being forcefully pushed and shoved by officers.

    Demonise dissent, demonise protesters.

  8. Pegasus @ #1504 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 1:14 pm

    Paddy Manning – Quiet, Australians: we are well down the slippery slope to becoming a police state:

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/01/2019/1572575141/quiet-australians

    Revelations in the Nine newspapers this morning that Victoria Police are pursuing the alleged whistleblowers in the Helloworld scandal just go to show that the federal government is thoroughly insincere about trying to restore press freedoms in this country, which have been eroded over the last two decades. The fact that this comes on the day that our prime minister declares [$] a crackdown on climate activists, especially those “targeting businesses and firms who provide goods or services to firms they don’t like”, suggests Australia is well on the way to becoming a police state. This week we have seen cowardly, thuggish behaviour by Victoria Police, who have sometimes outnumbered protesters, outside a mining industry conference, with social media showing officers wielding batons against unarmed protesters, attacking journalists and apparently flashing white-power symbols. That’s under the Andrews Labor government, and it comes as the Palaszcuk Labor government in Queensland just passed the most repressive anti-protest laws since the Joh Bjelke-Petersen era.
    ::::
    “This is not about free speech, it’s not about the ability to protest, these people are completely against our way of life,” Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton told Channel Nine today. And so it has happened: the national security measures we were told were necessary to protect Australians against terrorists and paedophiles are now going to be deployed against – you guessed it – climate activists. And if you think they’ll stop there, you would be mistaken. Unions? NGOs? They’re not quiet Australians. Decoded, the prime minister’s exhortations against a “new form of secondary boycott” today would even ban the ethical investment and consumer-choice movements. “Together with the attorney-general, we are working to identify mechanisms that can successfully outlaw these indulgent and selfish practices that threaten the livelihoods of fellow Australians,” said the prime minister, “especially in rural and regional areas, and especially here in Queensland. We will take our time to get it right, but be assured we are on the job.” Assured? You’ve got to be joking.

    Here in Victoria premier Andrews has expressed his overwhelming support for the police force against the actions of the anti-mining protesters.

    His reasons pretty much mirror some of the same sentiments as expressed by Dutton.

    Unlike you, Andrews has access to all the available information regarding the demos last week. The protestors were apparently violent and Andrews called that out. You may want to side personally and political with violent thugs and the usual rabble rousing ratbags. But, I’m certain Andrews is voicing the view of most sensible Victorians.

  9. Pegasus @ #1507 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 1:19 pm

    Andrews

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/scuffles-between-protesters-and-police-continue-outside-melbourne-mining-conference-20191030-p535kh.html

    Premier Daniel Andrews has slammed the actions of anti-mining demonstrators as appalling and defended the force used by police, amid another day of violent clashes that included more than a dozen arrests and a TV reporter being forcefully pushed and shoved by officers.

    Demonise dissent, demonise protesters.

    He should get in with an increased majority next time and those inner city Melbourne seats will remain even further out of reach for The Greens. 🙂

  10. guytaursays:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 1:05 pm

    Barney

    Good nonsensical argument.

    Only due to your colour blindness.

  11. C@tmomma @ #1506 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 1:18 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1487 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 12:52 pm

    Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1481 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 12:45 pm

    Pegasussays:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 12:39 pm

    Back in the day, Greg Jericho, aka Grog, was quite the popular ALP standard bearer on this site; so many admirers. Now his attitudes have changed and he is reviled by some of the same ALP PB posters who dominate this blog.

    How ironic.

    And up jumps Peg, demonstrating that she doesn’t do nuance either.

    Barney,

    I just find his continuous whingeing and negative takes on just about any issue wearing. But, I suppose now he’s a journo on the Guardian he has to toe their party line.

    All his graphs give me a headache as well. He does too much nuance sometimes! 😆

    Not really. Despite the overload of information, he basically writes the same article every time. That article is, “Everything Sucks!”

  12. You know what I find interesting about all Green commentary? They NEVER condemn the violent tactics of the Socialist Alliance and the Anarchists. So you can only conclude that they support their methodologies.

  13. Mass protests have given us:
    Universal suffrage
    8 hour working day
    Equal pay
    Ended our involvement in Vietnam War
    Decriminalisation of homosexuality
    Same sex marriage
    Saved the Gordon River

    All good reasons that IPA/LNP HATE them.

  15. Barney

    No due to yours. Unlike you I know that demonising refugees has been wrong from the start.

    I have said thats where Labor went wrong and got wedged and I pointed out to you the approach by the Democrats that is leading to a different outcome.

    Thats called nuance.

    Dismissing the general point of Rex’ argument because you don’t like it by pointing to a stepping stone back to the correct path of empathy compassion and respect for human rights does nothing to address the general point Rex was making by claiming lack of nuance.

  17. !!!

    A controversial policy allowing politicians to run false ads on Facebook will extend to the United Kingdom as the country prepares to vote in a historic December election, Facebook confirmed to CNN Business.

    The policy is being championed by Facebook executive Nick Clegg, the former deputy prime minister of the United Kingdom who himself once complained about “lies” spread during the 2016 Brexit referendum.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/01/tech/facebook-false-ads-uk/index.html

    Well, fb found Nick Clegg’s price. 😐

  18. All good reasons that IPA/LNP HATE them.

    Apparently up in Queensland so does the Palaszcuk Labor government as it has just passed the most repressive anti-protest laws since the Joh Bjelke-Petersen era.

    Didn’t see that coming, or….

  19. It’s disappointing that a handful of anarchist ‘protesters’ and fascist ‘police officers’ hijacked the event and equally disappointing the MSM focused on them.

  20. C@t

    “Nick Clegg, the former deputy prime minister of the United Kingdom”
    ——————

    The quote left out a vital piece of information.

    Nick Clegg was not just a deputy Prime Minister in a Tory government he was a Liberal Democrat, i.e. the very definition of a professionally dishonest unprincipled rogue!! 🙂

  21. Barney

    Also there was no nuance in Greta Thunberg’s tweet.

    Note the article to which it was commenting on.

    The Washington Post is certainly not the Guardian or Greg Jericho

  22. Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
    37m37 minutes ago
    It’s not a bombshell, it’s a reminder that William Barr carefully cherry-picked the Mueller report to create a summary that was narrowly true by Barr’s own carefully chosen terms, but a complete lie in describing the actual contents of what was in the Mueller report.

    And now hopefully, the impeachment inquiry will give the public the full report.

  23. @PorfPCDoherty tweets

    #Insiders With regard to climate change, who will be seen as the real criminals in 20, 30 50 years? People who are trying to raise consciousness and businesses that are attempting to do something, or the reactionary politicians who frustrate &demonize any effort to move forward.

  25. guytaursays:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 1:25 pm

    Barney

    No due to yours. Unlike you I know that demonising refugees has been wrong from the start.

    One of your major problems, you so often assume things, when no valid reasoning supports such an assumption.

    I have said thats where Labor went wrong and got wedged and I pointed out to you the approach by the Democrats that is leading to a different outcome.

    Thats called nuance.

    You have always had problems with the English language. 🙂

    Dismissing the general point of Rex’ argument because you don’t like it by pointing to a stepping stone back to the correct path of empathy compassion and respect for human rights does nothing to address the general point Rex was making by claiming lack of nuance.

    What part has Labor played in determining how people are treated when in detention?

    The only thing I can see is Medivac.

  26. What do country people want ?

    Well, they wanna be free, they wanna be free to do what they wanna do
    And they wanna get loaded and they wanna have a good time
    And that’s what they’re gonna do
    They’re gonna have a good time, They’re gonna have a party

    But seriously, a lot of them want someone who talks like them, stands up for them, gives credibility to their grievances (preferably the petty ones that are easy to meet) and, importantly, their fears and prejudices (not a phenomenon isolated to people in the country).

    To cut through that and offer something more substantial and tangible but less … cultural (?) and immediate will not be easy considering how stubbornly and strongly anti ALP their preferred media and politicians have groomed them to become.

  28. Barney

    Yeah yeah. Labor did not set detention as their policy. Labor did not accept the framing of refugees as illegals and accept terms like genuine refugees over the years.

    Labor had nothing to do with the slippery slope of accepting demonising of refugees as an acceptable political framing.

  29. “A sad and shocking system that diminishes Australia as a nation”.

    “Inhumane, abusive and unjustified”.
    …
    They are words that are ready-made front-page headlines. These are pronouncements that TV news and current affairs live for.

    This is a report for journalists to pore over, to provide analysis and follow-ups with personal stories of the thousands of victims of this system.

    But while some editors did splash with it for Friday’s newspapers, by lunchtime it had disappeared off news websites almost entirely.

    Comparing the media coverage of the aged care and banking royal commissions shows a stark imbalance.
    …
    The theory in media circles is that the banking royal commission was big news because “everyone has a bank account”. There seems to be no corresponding extrapolation for aged care — “everyone grows old”.

    More truthful perhaps would be an admission that aged care isn’t “sexy”: it’s thought not to sell papers or attract younger readers online.

    But this ignores the crucial role the media plays in political and social outcomes. So when almost $20 billion goes into aged care each year, isn’t that worth similar journalistic scrutiny to the banks?
    ..
    If the Government is to make the changes Australia so sorely needs, it will only be public pressure that will ensure it happens.

    And without a knowledgeable media asking questions and putting pressure on the aged care “industry” and Government, there is a great risk that the system will fail our elderly — and us — again.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-03/aged-care-royal-commission-coverage-imbalance/11666490?pfmredir=sm

  30. Barney

    To be clear. I am not claiming its all Labor’s fault. Again that nuance. However it does nothing to deny the reality of what has occurred.

  34. Dan Andrews is just representing the Quiet Victorians who don’t mind a slide into a police state. His demonisation of protestors and his cavalier attitude towards needless violence by police conform with how most voters think – or fail to think – about the kind of society they want to live in.

  36. The XR’s have made their objectives even less obtainable than they were 6 months ago. Very sad. The issue is profoundly important and they have reduced to it street theatre and mock war.

    They are playing fight-politics. This is a game they absolutely cannot win. The cost of their game-playing will be the further conspicuous and deliberate destruction of the environment by the Right. The XR’s are the counter-face of Rightist exploitation of the environment for political purposes.

  37. ‘fess,
    Starting to go into the territory of ‘High Crimes and Misdemeanours’ in my book, if it wasn’t already.

    And, I guess you know too, but it’s very hard to keep up with all the stories and opinion columns coming out of the NYT and The Washington Post every day!

  38. At last! Someone who cares as much about language as I do!

    I’ve had it with multiple. It’s a rubbish word. It says nothing. Yet it’s everywhere … in print, online and on the airwaves.

    We read of fans who make multiple trips to hear a band, of snakes that bite victims multiple times, and miners who’ve had multiple warnings to clean up their messes.
    …
    In becoming ubiquitous, multiple has annihilated many and several – great, useful words because they actually say something. Multiple is a parasite, a crown of thorns sucking the life out of the coral gardens of English prose.

    Multiple doesn’t even say what you might think it does. The way most writers and broadcasters use it, it means absolutely nothing exactly, which is the point.

    It’s a word from arithmetic. It should stay there. The number six is a multiple of three and two. The number 48 is a multiple of six and eight. To put it precisely, multiple is a number that can be divided by another number a certain number of times without a remainder. Easy.

    How it ever began to stand in for many and several distresses me. And it doesn’t even know its lines. It’s mute when it tries to convey meaning.
    …
    Using multiple is just one way in which the media is diluting its impact. If journalists’ writing was more succinct, more articulate and more consistent grammatically, it might also be more powerful. When – not, “At a time when”, you’ll notice – governments, commerce and organisations of all sorts are stifling the truth, writing with bite is the only antidote.

    https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/the-many-reasons-to-ban-multiple-and-other-grammar-peeves-20191031-p53636.html

  39. @DougCameron tweets

    Good article from ⁦⁦@GrogsGamut exposing the nonsense from some right wing ⁦@AustralianLabor⁩ frontbenchers.
    ⁦@ClareONeilMP⁩ pontificates on political correctness while she embraces PC on economics, trade, IR, and progressive politics. https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/nov/03/if-you-think-labors-too-progressive-you-couldnt-be-more-wrong?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    No matter what else you say about him you cannot dismiss ex Senator Doug Cameron as a Green stooge.

  41. E. G. Theodore
    The decision by the ANZ wasn’t a surprise and is why I just don’t get why the ALP choose to make it an issue when they could have sat back and waited a year or two then after a few dividend cuts then introduced its reforms.

  43. @GetUP tweets

    The government wants a culture war that pits jobs against climate – because it doesn’t have a plan for either.

    The truth is that workers across the country will be among the hardest hit by rising temperatures, worse air quality, and more unpredictable weather.

  44. The protestors want to shut down all mining?
    Really?
    They physically prevented people from going about their lawful activities?
    Really?
    They tried to prevent people at a meeting saying what they think?
    Really?
    They were rude, aggressive and physical against the police?
    Really?
    They want to be respected?
    Really.

  46. I have rewatched the Rugby World Cup post match interviews and press conference. South Africa certainly have 2 inspirational leaders – an amazing story. I was going to post the bit where they address the issue of dealing with expectations and pressure of representing their country… or the bit where the coach sums up his thoughts on the captain Kolisi… but decided to simply go with this… (Kolisi being the one of the far left. Anthem is in 3 – or is it 5? – languages)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5aUURhCCMI

  49. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-trail-of-mistakes-and-unforced-errors-taylor-faces-his-biggest-test-20191101-p536jv.html

    Angus Taylor: “…Taylor has, in fact, been blessed by good fortune from the very start. He went to the elite King’s School in Parramatta, then to the University of Sydney and on to Oxford with his Rhodes. McKinsey snapped him up as a management consultant,…”

    All of the above and he’s still as thick as two besser blocks cemented together.

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