Welcome to the latest instalment of Call of the Board, which probes into every seat result from the May federal election region by region. Earlier instalments covered Sydney, here and here; regional New South Wales; Melbourne; regional Victoria and south-east Queensland. Today we look at the electorates of Queensland outside of Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast.
The posts dealing with the big cities have featured colour-coded seat maps and the results of a model estimating how the results would have looked if determined by demographic factors alone. Unfortunately, colour-coding doesn’t get you very far when zooming out to vast and unevenly populated regional terrain, and the model hasn’t proved to be much use in producing plausible results for regional seats, in which elusive factors of local political culture appear to loom large. However, I can at least offer for purposes of comparison Labor two-party estimates derived from the Senate results, potentially offering a pointer to how much candidate factors affected the lower house results.
Seat by seat alphabetically:
Capricornia (LNP 12.4%; 11.7% swing to LNP): Labor held this Rockhampton region seat for all but one term from 1977 to 2013, but history may record that it has now reached a tipping point akin to those that have excluded the party from former regional strongholds including Kennedy (Labor-held for all but two terms from federation to 1966, but only once thereafter), Grey in South Australia (Labor-held for all but one term from 1943 to 1993, but never again since) and Kalgoorlie in Western Australia (Labor-held for all but three terms from 1922 until Graeme Campbell quit the party in 1995, and now divided between the safely conservative seats of O’Connor and Durack). The 11.7% swing to Michelle Landry, who has held the seat since 2013, was the biggest in the country, shading the 11.2% swing to the beloved George Christensen in Dawson. Landry’s primary vote was actually little changed, reflecting the entry of One Nation, who accounted for most of Labor’s 14.3% collapse. The rest came from a halving of the Katter’s Australian Party vote from 7.1% to 3.7% and the absence of Family First.
Dawson (LNP 14.6%; 11.2% swing to LNP): Dawson behaved almost identically in swing terms to its southern neighbour, Capricornia, as voters showed themselves to be a great deal more concerned about Adani and its symbolism than George Christensen’s enthusiasm for life in the Philippines. As in Capricornia, the LNP primary vote was little changed from 2016, but the arrival of One Nation soaked up 13.1% which neatly matched Labor’s 12.5% decline. Katter’s Australian Party held up better here than in Capricornia, their 6.3% being only slightly down on 2016.
Flynn (LNP 8.7%; 7.6% swing to LNP): Labor narrowly won this Gladstone-based seat on its creation at their 2007 high-water mark and sliced the margin back to 1.0% in 2016, but hopes of going one better this time fell foul of the party’s region-wide disaster. The swing in this case was fairly typical of those suffered by Labor outside the immediate range of proposed Adani mine, though in this case One Nation were not a new feature, their 19.6% being slightly higher than their 2016 result. The seat was a bit unusual in that Labor’s score on the two-party Senate estimate was 2.8% stronger than their House result.
Groom (LNP 20.5%; 5.2% swing to LNP): The 5.2% swing to John McVeigh was a bit below the regional Queensland par, despite him being a sophomore of sorts – although he may have arrived in 2016 with a ready-made personal vote due to his background as a state member. Nonetheless, it was sufficient to catapult the seat from fifteenth to second on the national ranking of seats by Coalition-versus-Labor margin, reflecting the narrowing of margins in many blue-ribbon city seats. The 2016 result was remarkable in that Family First polled 10.0% in the absence of right-wing minor party competition – this time the newly arrived One Nation polled 13.1% in their absence. The LNP primary vote was little changed and Labor was down 3.5%, the rest of the swing bespeaking a more right-wing minor party preference pool.
Herbert (LNP GAIN 8.4%; 8.4% swing to LNP): Labor’s most marginal seat pre-election, following Labor member Cathy O’Toole’s 37 vote win in 2016, the Townsville seat of Herbert was one of five seats across the country and two in Queensland that were gained by the Coalition (balanced to an extent by Labor’s gains in Gilmore and, with help from redistribution, Corangamite and Dunkley). While the swing was lower than in the Adani epicentre electorates of Dawson and Capricornia immediately to the south, it was sufficient to produce the most decisive result the seat has seen since 1954. O’Toole’s primary vote was down 5.0% to 25.5%, while LNP victor Phillip Thompson added 1.6% to the party’s 2016 result to score 37.1%. High-profile Palmer candidate Greg Dowling did relatively well in polling 5.7%, and One Nation were down from 13.5% to 11.1%.
Hinkler (LNP 14.5%; 6.1% swing to LNP): Keith Pitt, who has held this Bundaberg-based seat since 2013, picked up a swing well in line with the regional Queensland norm. He was up 2.2% on the primary vote, while Labor was down 3.8%; One Nation fell from 19.2% to 14.8%, mostly due to an expansion in the field from seven candidates to ten, including three independents, none of whom did particularly well individually.
Kennedy (KAP 13.3% versus LNP; 2.3% swing to KAP): Bob Katter had a near death experience at the 2013 election, at which time he was presumably tarred with the minority government brush despite being the only cross-bencher who backed the Coalition after the inconclusive 2010 result. However, he’s roared back to dominance since, picking up successive two-party swings of 8.9% and 2.3%, and primary vote swings of 10.5% and 2.6%. On the latter count at least, he’s been assisted by the fact that One Nation have declined to challenge him. In Coalition-versus-Labor terms, the seat participated in the regional Queensland trend in swinging 7.8% against Labor.
Leichhardt (LNP 4.2%; 0.2% swing to LNP): The negligible swing in favour of LNP veteran Warren Entsch was an exception to the regional Queensland rule, and was generally attributed to the centrality of tourism to the economy of Cairns, giving the region a very different outlook on issues like Adani. The result was generally status quo in all respects, but the seat had the distinction of being one of only three in the state where the Labor primary vote very slightly increased, along with Ryan and Fairfax. With Entsch’s primary vote down slightly, the two-party swing, such as it was, came down to an improved flow of preferences.
Maranoa (LNP 22.5% versus One Nation; 6.6% swing to LNP): For the second election in a row, Maranoa emerged with the distinction of being the only seat in the country where One Nation made the final preference count. One Nation and Labor were down on the primary vote by 3.2% and 2.7% respectively; at the last preference exclusion, One Nation led Labor 21.3% to 19.0%, compared with 23.6% to 22.9% in 2016. The other story here was the strong sophomore showing for David Littleproud, who was up 6.8% on the primary vote and by similar amounts on two-party preferred against both One Nation and Labor. The 25.4% margin versus Labor is now by some distance the biggest in the country, compared with the electorate’s ninth ranking on this score in 2016. Equally impressive for Littleproud is the distinction between his 25.4% margin and the 20.4% recorded by the two-party Senate measure.
Wide Bay (LNP 13.1%; 5.0% swing to LNP): Llew O’Brien may also have enjoyed a sophomore effect after succeeding Warren Truss in 2016, as his primary vote was up 3.2% while One Nation fell from 15.6% to 10.8%. However, the Labor primary vote held up unusually well, and the two-party swing was at the lower end of the regional Queensland scale.
Wright (LNP 14.6%; 5.0% swing to LNP): So far as the major parties were concerned, the result here was typical of regional Queensland, with LNP member Scott Buchholz up 3.1% on the primary vote and Labor down 4.0%. Independent Innes Larkin, who appears to have made his name locally campaigning against coal seam gas, scored a respectable 5.3%, which presumably helps explains the drop in the One Nation vote from 21.8% to 14.0%.
Boerwar
says:
Uh huh. The SDA helped Woolies pinch $300,000,000. Right. Bloody unions!
The sooner they turn wage theft into a criminal offence the better.
_______________________________________
Well the SDA was certainly complicit in the EBA scandal considering they signed the EBA. In 2016-2017 alone the SDA donated 1.2 million to the ALP. That’s the only reason they are tolerated. If they had used some of that money to periodically examine payslips instead they would be serving the best interests of their members. But they don’t exist to do that. They exist to pay the ALP to get seats for their operatives.
William Bowe @ #1234 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 8:24 pm
If the person in question (LvT), was honest with themselves and actually followed the progress of the investigation Labor has in train against Angus Taylor, they would already know that Mark Butler has launched three FOI requests for information from Taylor’s office for documents used to draft the letter to Clover Moore. Also, that they have referred the matter to the NSW Police.
So maybe the person in question should be directing their pearl clutching ire at the tardiness of the NSW Police.
And finally, they are waiting for one of the ever rarer occasions for parliament to sit again to continue to press Taylor for answers, which have to be factually correct if given on the floor of the House in response to Opposition questions.
However, I imagine the truth will be ignored by the person in question.
Boerwar @ #1244 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 5:50 pm
The Democrats simply followed the same rules that had been established by House Republicans back in the days they impeached Clinton. That being that a matter serious enough to warrant impeachment inquiry could be determined by the relevant House leadership without a vote.
Republicans then about-faced on their own rules and said a vote needed to be taken. There has been footage all over social media of Lindsey Graham in particular back in the 1990s declaring that a vote isn’t needed to impeach Clinton because of the gravity of the matter, compared with now accompanied with requisite dissembling by him. Quite the spectacle.
The vote will pass the House easily to back the inquiry.
Sure the Liberals have a conservative echo chamber – but even the conservative media won’t / can’t ignore a good story. See for instance Choppergate or Barnaby Joyce.
Boerwar @ #1244 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 8:50 pm
Pelosi renamed another committee to avoid the vote.
Aqualung
I was on a disaster management team for an organisation of around 3,000 employees. The organisation had numerous significant national responsibilities.
Task one was to identify the various disasters that might befall us and then to rate them in terms of degree of impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of the organisation.
By far and away the biggest single potential disaster for the organisation was finding ourselves not being able to pay staff on time.
The first point might mean something, but all the second amounts to is that Labor isn’t bringing the full weight of News Corp, Sky News and talk radio down upon the government, like those superior tactical minds in the Coalition would be doing if this were a scandal involving a Labor minister.
Exactly because those same media outlets don’t play ball with Labor the way they do with the Coalition. So you end up with virtual media silence.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:58 pm
Boerwar @ #1244 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 8:50 pm
Confessions
Thanks but I still don’t understand. How could the Impeachment Inquiry have commenced without House approval?
Did the relevant Committee just start the inquiry without a formal House vote?
Pelosi renamed another committee to avoid the vote.’
I am back to being confused! Why would she want to avoid a vote? Would that not play into the hands of the Republicans?
nath, how much does Woolworths donate to the Liberal Party?
The fact that the donate at all, to use your logic, means that they thought they could get away with short changing their employees.
Boerwar @ #1258 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 9:00 pm
Publicity stunt.
It’s the inquiry you have to tell people that you are thinking to plan that at the end of the day there needs to be an inquiry.
nath
Ah. Now I understand what you really meant all along. Your opinion is that Woolies executives should be in jail for pinching $300 million!
Good on you!
Good to see there are some utterly reliable things about PB. 🙂
Would be nicer though if those reliable thing were not Rex, nath and ESJ/Lars being moronic dickhead trolls.
Still, i suppose the universe needs some constants or physics would fundamentally break down??
Boerwar @ #1259 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 9:00 pm
Nancy Pelosi wanted to avoid House Democrats in swing districts from being targeted by the Trumpists for voting for Impeachment of Trump until such time as there was enough evidence out there for the general public to comprehend the necessity and the gravity of Trump’s High Crimes and Misdemeanours and that would provide the cover that the Democrats in former Republican districts needed when they went back to their districts and faced the people there.
As a co-equal branch of government, Nancy Pelosi, as Leader of the House, can make the sort of executive decisions that Trump does, kind of. So she launched the Impeachment Inquiry, for the reasons I have stated.
She wants to win this thing and Trump is a formidable opponent.
GG
Australian politics is much simplerer: Labor/bad.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 7:07 pm
A couple of idea’s for you to take to the summit Cat .
1) Stop focusing on the inner city elites and start focusing on ordinary working Australians.
2) Ex union officials to be banned from ever becoming a minister or shadow minister.
3 ) Get rid of Rudds rules on leadership challenges. Shorten was a dud and should have been removed.
Boerwar @ #1264 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 9:06 pm
Not where it actually counts.
Boerwar
says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 9:04 pm
nath
Ah. Now I understand what you really meant all along. Your opinion is that Woolies executives should be in jail for pinching $300 million!
Good on you!
____________________
Sure, I got no probs with that.
C@t
I would suggest taking taylormade along to the summit and getting him to run (2) up the flagpole.
It would be interesting to watch what happens next!
nath
Thanks.
taylormade @ #1265 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 9:06 pm
Take no notice of anonymous bloggers!
sprocket_ @ #1259 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 9:03 pm
I remember, back in the day, when Labor were in power federally, it was discovered that Woolworths was a reliable redoubt for out of government work former Liberal staffers.
“Australian politics is much simplerer: Labor/bad.”
See..BW actually gets it 🙂
Time for bed. Good night all, and sweet dreams.
Boerwar @ #1268 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 9:08 pm
I think taylormade would be run up the flagpole! 😆
But seriously I think that the assembled conference attendees would simply say…when the Liberals no longer find places for IPA apparatchiks in parliament. 🙂
Then there was this earlier this month…
‘Some of Australia’s biggest corporations have hidden political donations from planning authorities, which is a criminal offence in New South Wales, a Guardian investigation has found.
Woolworths, Caltex, Origin Energy, AMP and Incitec Pivot are among 13 companies that declared sizeable political donations to the Liberal and Labor parties to the Electoral Commission, but failed to declare them when seeking approval to develop property in NSW.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/07/political-donations-hidden-from-nsw-planning-authorities-by-big-corporations
sprocket_
says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 9:03 pm
nath, how much does Woolworths donate to the Liberal Party?
The fact that the donate at all, to use your logic, means that they thought they could get away with short changing their employees.
___________________________
The SDA is supposed to be acting in the interests of their members. So, how many millions in dues have members paid? How much was spent in examining their pay?
Two business leaders interviewed on ABC radio this morning.
One was demanding more regulation to minimise class actions. Yes, I thought – he wants controls on business tightened up so that people aren’t having to resort to the courts to get redress. Alas, I was wrong – he wanted restrictions on class actions.
I’m sure he spends a considerable amount of his time lobbying for the removal of ‘red tape’, and the irony is lost on him.
The other was talking about the need for certainty when dealing with climate change. We need to accept facts, he said. He then refused to actually say that emissions were rising, and that that was a concern. The closest he got to this was that emissions would be rising more if the government wasn’t taking decisive action.
In fact, he was so reluctant to admit that rising emissions was a concern that I initially thought he must be a government minister.
nath, so all the Liberal Party union busting legislation has worked – aided in part by re-election coffers being filled by large companies, such as Woolworths.
It’s a bit rich to lay all the blame on the hobbled Union.
I recall when pay was paid in cash. In those days – before calculators – when one made a mistake, one was picked up higher in the feed. One was very careful not to make a mistake. Today though it has been admitted that Woolworths has ripped off employees to the tune of $300m – this in a digital age.
I guess Labor should bring back Bill Shorten then, who by implication deserves the credit for Bishop’s and Joyce’s demise. With a bit of Shorten’s patented “relentlessness”, News Corp will soon be all over a story that a) makes them look stupid and b) requires them to take sides with a climate activist mayor.
Sleep well, Boerwar – a personal touch, not evidenced much.
sprocket_
says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 9:22 pm
nath, so all the Liberal Party union busting legislation has worked – aided in part by re-election coffers being filled by large companies, such as Woolworths.
It’s a bit rich to lay all the blame on the hobbled Union.
________________________________
IF it wasn’t for the Fairfax investigation years ago teenagers would still be getting less than award wages. You keep barracking for the SDA. It’s another reason why the Greens are hollowing out the ALP
Well – do newspapers have agendas to be sure and yes I am sure the Tele would at the least be sheepish about spruiking Taylor’s dodgy numbers – as witnessed by MediaWatch on Monday night.
Yes I think Shorten deserves “credit” for Bishop’s demise – although the effect was somewhat spoiled when expenses rorts where exposed as a bi-partisan hobby.
Joyce I don’t think so – I think from memory that one was more “there but for the grace of god go I” for those in the ALP who had “personal issues” and was run exclusively by the Tele and avoided by the ALP.
William
Yes. News Limited accepting as kosher a drop from Angus Taylor’s office, and being told by Clover’s people that the numbers were so ridiculously high that they couldn’t be true, yet still went ahead and published the beat up – why would they compound this indolence by going after Angus?
In many ways the actions of the SDA has helped the rise of the Greens enormously:
Greg Combet, ACTU secretary from 2000 to 2007, says that long after the Cold War finished, its echo could be heard in ACTU executive meetings. “The social policy concerns of the Catholic Church – abortion, same-sex marriage – were always at the forefront for the SDA … I suppose you could say the SDA played an important role in making sure the ACTU did not take a position on some socially progressive issues.
https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2016/shopped-out/
Lots of interesting commentary about a split in the LGBTI community. LGB splitting from TI. The argument is the first three being about same sex attraction feels it shouldn’t be lumped in with gender identity, as their aims are different.
Feeling a little forlorn tonight, WB? No matter, we all have our demons:
Like a rag doll in the rain
Your love, hence, purpose is gone
Now your forced to endure the pain
As you realize you were just a pawn
In your story this was the great love
In his you were just a bit part
As insignificant as an old glove
He tears out your still beating heart
nath, your concern about religious influence on political parties is well founded. For example:
Mormons – https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-religious-minority-seizing-power-in-the-liberal-party-20180601-p4ziyq.html
Pentecostals – https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-01/scott-morrison-and-pentecostalism/10325126
Narcissistic Cults – https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/02/09/alex-bhathal-and-discord-the-greens/15496308007429
Dio:
Where are you reading that?
Don’t forget The Exclusive Brethren in Tasmania.
C@t
Yes – John Howard had a thing with the Exclusives. And Tony Abbott with Opus Dei.
Speaking of Scott Morrison, Channel 9’s ‘A Current Affair’ are going after his nephew tomorrow night. Guess what? He’s a dodgy Tradie!
Take that, taylormade! 😆
The Noble Tradie of Scott Morrison’s archetypal construction, is actually, in reality a bit dodge.
Mavus @8:52. “I judge Woolies by its price for Twinnings’ English Breakfast Tea, the price of which is normally $11 (100 tea bags). About once a month the price is halved. “
Wait a couple of years and the price will be down to about a Zimbabwe dollar.
And speaking of John Howard, that was his political genius, and there’s probably a PhD in researching how Labor’s Primary Vote has dropped since Howard changed the law to make Tradies sole traders with the ABN.
Time for a rework of The Genealogy
The Lying Rodent (Exclusive Bretheren) begat
The Lying Friar (Opus Dei) begat
The Lying Waffle (Mammon) begat
The Liar from the Shire (Brian Houston)
sprocket_
says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 9:43 pm
nath, your concern about religious influence on political parties is well founded.
______________________
I take comfort in this:
Australian Census
No religion
2006: 18.7%
2011: 22.3%
2016: 30.1%
The press lay off Barnaby Joyce until he had safely regained his seat.
Diogenes, here is an interesting article about the divide between the LGBs and the Ts.
https://quillette.com/2019/10/26/its-time-for-lgb-and-t-to-go-their-separate-ways/
https://www.axios.com/big-oil-offshore-wind-c23acfc9-29ea-4b80-8c39-d46289a0c812.html
Blow baby, blow doesn’t have quite the same ring to it…
Diogenes:
[‘The argument is the first three being about same sex attraction feels it shouldn’t be lumped in with gender identity, as their aims are different.’]
I’d suggest it’s far more complex.