Welcome to the latest instalment of Call of the Board, which probes into every seat result from the May federal election region by region. Earlier instalments covered Sydney, here and here; regional New South Wales; Melbourne; regional Victoria and south-east Queensland. Today we look at the electorates of Queensland outside of Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast.
The posts dealing with the big cities have featured colour-coded seat maps and the results of a model estimating how the results would have looked if determined by demographic factors alone. Unfortunately, colour-coding doesn’t get you very far when zooming out to vast and unevenly populated regional terrain, and the model hasn’t proved to be much use in producing plausible results for regional seats, in which elusive factors of local political culture appear to loom large. However, I can at least offer for purposes of comparison Labor two-party estimates derived from the Senate results, potentially offering a pointer to how much candidate factors affected the lower house results.
Seat by seat alphabetically:
Capricornia (LNP 12.4%; 11.7% swing to LNP): Labor held this Rockhampton region seat for all but one term from 1977 to 2013, but history may record that it has now reached a tipping point akin to those that have excluded the party from former regional strongholds including Kennedy (Labor-held for all but two terms from federation to 1966, but only once thereafter), Grey in South Australia (Labor-held for all but one term from 1943 to 1993, but never again since) and Kalgoorlie in Western Australia (Labor-held for all but three terms from 1922 until Graeme Campbell quit the party in 1995, and now divided between the safely conservative seats of O’Connor and Durack). The 11.7% swing to Michelle Landry, who has held the seat since 2013, was the biggest in the country, shading the 11.2% swing to the beloved George Christensen in Dawson. Landry’s primary vote was actually little changed, reflecting the entry of One Nation, who accounted for most of Labor’s 14.3% collapse. The rest came from a halving of the Katter’s Australian Party vote from 7.1% to 3.7% and the absence of Family First.
Dawson (LNP 14.6%; 11.2% swing to LNP): Dawson behaved almost identically in swing terms to its southern neighbour, Capricornia, as voters showed themselves to be a great deal more concerned about Adani and its symbolism than George Christensen’s enthusiasm for life in the Philippines. As in Capricornia, the LNP primary vote was little changed from 2016, but the arrival of One Nation soaked up 13.1% which neatly matched Labor’s 12.5% decline. Katter’s Australian Party held up better here than in Capricornia, their 6.3% being only slightly down on 2016.
Flynn (LNP 8.7%; 7.6% swing to LNP): Labor narrowly won this Gladstone-based seat on its creation at their 2007 high-water mark and sliced the margin back to 1.0% in 2016, but hopes of going one better this time fell foul of the party’s region-wide disaster. The swing in this case was fairly typical of those suffered by Labor outside the immediate range of proposed Adani mine, though in this case One Nation were not a new feature, their 19.6% being slightly higher than their 2016 result. The seat was a bit unusual in that Labor’s score on the two-party Senate estimate was 2.8% stronger than their House result.
Groom (LNP 20.5%; 5.2% swing to LNP): The 5.2% swing to John McVeigh was a bit below the regional Queensland par, despite him being a sophomore of sorts – although he may have arrived in 2016 with a ready-made personal vote due to his background as a state member. Nonetheless, it was sufficient to catapult the seat from fifteenth to second on the national ranking of seats by Coalition-versus-Labor margin, reflecting the narrowing of margins in many blue-ribbon city seats. The 2016 result was remarkable in that Family First polled 10.0% in the absence of right-wing minor party competition – this time the newly arrived One Nation polled 13.1% in their absence. The LNP primary vote was little changed and Labor was down 3.5%, the rest of the swing bespeaking a more right-wing minor party preference pool.
Herbert (LNP GAIN 8.4%; 8.4% swing to LNP): Labor’s most marginal seat pre-election, following Labor member Cathy O’Toole’s 37 vote win in 2016, the Townsville seat of Herbert was one of five seats across the country and two in Queensland that were gained by the Coalition (balanced to an extent by Labor’s gains in Gilmore and, with help from redistribution, Corangamite and Dunkley). While the swing was lower than in the Adani epicentre electorates of Dawson and Capricornia immediately to the south, it was sufficient to produce the most decisive result the seat has seen since 1954. O’Toole’s primary vote was down 5.0% to 25.5%, while LNP victor Phillip Thompson added 1.6% to the party’s 2016 result to score 37.1%. High-profile Palmer candidate Greg Dowling did relatively well in polling 5.7%, and One Nation were down from 13.5% to 11.1%.
Hinkler (LNP 14.5%; 6.1% swing to LNP): Keith Pitt, who has held this Bundaberg-based seat since 2013, picked up a swing well in line with the regional Queensland norm. He was up 2.2% on the primary vote, while Labor was down 3.8%; One Nation fell from 19.2% to 14.8%, mostly due to an expansion in the field from seven candidates to ten, including three independents, none of whom did particularly well individually.
Kennedy (KAP 13.3% versus LNP; 2.3% swing to KAP): Bob Katter had a near death experience at the 2013 election, at which time he was presumably tarred with the minority government brush despite being the only cross-bencher who backed the Coalition after the inconclusive 2010 result. However, he’s roared back to dominance since, picking up successive two-party swings of 8.9% and 2.3%, and primary vote swings of 10.5% and 2.6%. On the latter count at least, he’s been assisted by the fact that One Nation have declined to challenge him. In Coalition-versus-Labor terms, the seat participated in the regional Queensland trend in swinging 7.8% against Labor.
Leichhardt (LNP 4.2%; 0.2% swing to LNP): The negligible swing in favour of LNP veteran Warren Entsch was an exception to the regional Queensland rule, and was generally attributed to the centrality of tourism to the economy of Cairns, giving the region a very different outlook on issues like Adani. The result was generally status quo in all respects, but the seat had the distinction of being one of only three in the state where the Labor primary vote very slightly increased, along with Ryan and Fairfax. With Entsch’s primary vote down slightly, the two-party swing, such as it was, came down to an improved flow of preferences.
Maranoa (LNP 22.5% versus One Nation; 6.6% swing to LNP): For the second election in a row, Maranoa emerged with the distinction of being the only seat in the country where One Nation made the final preference count. One Nation and Labor were down on the primary vote by 3.2% and 2.7% respectively; at the last preference exclusion, One Nation led Labor 21.3% to 19.0%, compared with 23.6% to 22.9% in 2016. The other story here was the strong sophomore showing for David Littleproud, who was up 6.8% on the primary vote and by similar amounts on two-party preferred against both One Nation and Labor. The 25.4% margin versus Labor is now by some distance the biggest in the country, compared with the electorate’s ninth ranking on this score in 2016. Equally impressive for Littleproud is the distinction between his 25.4% margin and the 20.4% recorded by the two-party Senate measure.
Wide Bay (LNP 13.1%; 5.0% swing to LNP): Llew O’Brien may also have enjoyed a sophomore effect after succeeding Warren Truss in 2016, as his primary vote was up 3.2% while One Nation fell from 15.6% to 10.8%. However, the Labor primary vote held up unusually well, and the two-party swing was at the lower end of the regional Queensland scale.
Wright (LNP 14.6%; 5.0% swing to LNP): So far as the major parties were concerned, the result here was typical of regional Queensland, with LNP member Scott Buchholz up 3.1% on the primary vote and Labor down 4.0%. Independent Innes Larkin, who appears to have made his name locally campaigning against coal seam gas, scored a respectable 5.3%, which presumably helps explains the drop in the One Nation vote from 21.8% to 14.0%.
A road-trip with the MCA (Minerals Council Australia) in Qld, it’s like a political donor’s dream.
At least the MCA were slightly more honest than many others to a senate committee
“The Minerals Council of Australia has conceded it makes political donations and pays to attend fundraisers to gain access to members of parliament in a submission to a Senate inquiry.
The frank admission – which reflects a commonly held belief about the role of money in politics – sticks out because major corporations and lobby groups by and large said they made donations to support democracy.
The Senate select committee into the political influence of donations, led by the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, asked significant entities why they made political donations.
In its response to the committee, the MCA said that it made donations amounting to $33,250 in 2015-16 and $57,345 in 2016-17, which were declared to the Australian Electoral Commission. The majority in both years went to the Liberal or National parties and associated entities.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/17/minerals-council-says-it-makes-political-donations-to-gain-access-to-mps
More recent figures from MarketForces suggest the MCA were hedging their bets a bit more before the last election, with donations to the ALP, Libs and Nats.
https://www.marketforces.org.au/politicaldonations2019/
The most recent pre-election political donations to the LNP or ALP are of course unavailable, I think until next year.
To give you an example of Labor’s self-sabotage on matters of economic competence, there are Labor MPs who would like to attend an economics conference at the University of Adelaide from Friday 10th January to Sunday 12th January 2020. But Labor’s economic leadership have pressured those MPs into not attending because they are worried that the conference will be portrayed in The Australian as too radical. This is a bad decision by Labor’s economic leadership that reflects cowardice and defensiveness rather than commitment to learning and improving.
https://mmt-adelaide-2020.com/
DP@ 5.47
You are totally correct to point out the need for Glencore to pay income tax.
However they are the absolute world masters at Transfer Pricing. They do it in all jurisdictions. They put it over a swathe of African nations and they do exactly the same to us.
They would argue (and some here would agree) that they indirectly contribute through their employees income. We sell ourselves very cheap.
Rex Douglas @ #1098 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 11:16 am
A photo of the four MPs at Glencore’s Mt Isa mine shows them in hardhats and mining lamps, with Freelander holding a lump of coal.
_——————————————————————————
Rex, there is no coal in Mt Isa – he is holding a rock containing copper.
Nicholas says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:02 pm
The Greens haven’t forced Labor to be economically inept – Labor did that all by themselves. Labor could choose to become economically literate at any time. It is entirely within their power. Blaming the Greens for this fault in Labor makes no sense at all.
I see a lot of “Labor should because the Greens can’t”. I do not see a lot of the Greens trying to explain Modern Money theory.
There is one serious problem with modern money theory. Several illusions are required for people to believe money is a store of value. MMT goes to the heart of these illusions.
frednk,
Labor will always disappoint the feral left.
Who cares?
Honestly, I don’t believe that the anti-greens strategy, which Labor politicians are increasing advocating is a good one. Because I argue it is going to drive more Progressive Labor voters to the Greens. Sure criticize Greens policies, however do it in a respectful civil way. Since they are an actual mature political party, unlike the personality driven ones which characterize the populist right. Indeed these parties like One Nation need to be attacked without mercy, as anti-worker. Because these parties are supporting the Coalition in various anti-union and anti-worker legislation, not the Greens.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/greens-lambasted-for-being-penned-behind-the-goat-s-cheese-curtain-20191030-p535t7.html
Fred, the Greens have a poor grasp of macroeconomics as well.
A government currency doesn’t rely on illusions for its value. It is valuable because the currency issuer is forcing people to pay taxes, fees, fines, civil damages etc in that currency. There will always be demand for the currency for as long as the currency issuer is enforcing financial obligations that can only be extinguished with that currency.
‘sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:15 pm
Rex Douglas @ #1098 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 11:16 am
A photo of the four MPs at Glencore’s Mt Isa mine shows them in hardhats and mining lamps, with Freelander holding a lump of coal.
_——————————————————————————
Rex, there is no coal in Mt Isa – he is holding a rock containing copper.’
God. Now the Greens know about that they are going to shut down the copper industry as well. Surely it causes pollution or something like that? Like, who actually uses copper, anyway? Probably only ignorant and uneducated rednecks in the regions.
‘Nicholas says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:37 pm
Fred, the Greens have a poor grasp of macroeconomics as well. ‘
That almost comes as a relief.
‘Nicholas says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:09 pm
To give you an example of Labor’s self-sabotage on matters of economic competence, there are Labor MPs who would like to attend an economics conference at the University of Adelaide from Friday 10th January to Sunday 12th January 2020. But Labor’s economic leadership have pressured those MPs into not attending because they are worried that the conference will be portrayed in The Australian as too radical. ‘
Political and policy no-brainer. Well done the Labor leadership!
Nicholas @ #1209 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 6:37 pm
You are clearly giving a paper which no one is ever going to take any notice (just like PB).
If it’s a choice between you and an enjoyable holiday, you lose.
frednk @ #1200 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 6:05 pm
Because it alienates the very people you need to get to vote for you. You would think the easiest votes for Labor to pick up are those who vote (1) Green, (2) Liberals.
If you, briefly, Boerwar and GG put your heads together, perhaps you can figure out why you can’t seem to pick up these votes.
Here is another great idea for Progressives to win seats in the regions and thereby to win government:
Gentrify the bush.
The policy objective would be to turn the whole of the regions into a facsimile of the inner urbs. It would be wall-to-wall concrete, asphalt, traffic congestion and plane trees. Houses would start at a million each.
There would no manufacturing, mining or anything crass like that in the regions. No herds of cattle, flocks of sheep. Yuck! Here and there, hole-in-the-wall cafes would serve conscience-free Oxfam coffee to people who would then seat themselves on hay bales or stolen milk crates on newly-installed trottoirs. This coffee culture would enable regional voters to start discussing eruditely such economic necessities as NMT, the woes of the SDA and lumps of coal.
Regional inhabitants would, of course, have the same access to top quality primary and high schools as the Inner Urbs. Plus there would be the same level of excellent medical services as currently only experienced in the Inner Urbs. Comms, ditto.
All the energy, water, oxygen, nutrients, and manufactured items required for the good life in the regions would, copying the Inner Urbs to a ‘T’, come from somewhere else. Plus, all the sewage and garbage would go somewhere else. Wicked, right?
Paradise in the Bush!
Went into a Department store today for the first time in a few weeks. The first Christmas decorations are making a tentative appearance, but Halloween is now the big thing. Funny that it only ever became a thing in Australia some time in the 1990s. I suppose Christmas starts (for shops) once Halloween is done and dusted.
And on the subject of great religious festivals, anyone remember who won the AFL Grand Finals? Such a big thing a month ago, now no longer visible in the rear view mirror.
Boerwar @ #1216 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 6:52 pm
Mate, the Greens can revel in horseshit and never leave the suburbs.
backpacker tax rules invalid!
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6098954430001
sprocket_ @ #1216 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 6:50 pm
Already bought my tickets and booked the hotel room for the weekend. 🙂
Nicholas @6:09PM.
“But Labor’s economic leadership have pressured those MPs into not attending because they are worried that the conference will be portrayed in The Australian as too radical. This is a bad decision by Labor’s economic leadership that reflects cowardice and defensiveness…”
I don’t know enough about the conference to say whether this was the right decision or not, but I do agree that Labor can’t allow itself to be cowed, especially by the Murdoch crapsheets. Labor will be attacked, misrepresented and lied about in a hopelessly biased Media. They need to plan for it and have a counter-strategy.
Albo on a news grab talking up the CEFC without reminding voters that Labor created it.
Labor never learns.
Check out the last panel in FDOTM’s latest.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/30/all-that-perfectly-good-water-dumped-into-the-ocean-like-some-sort-of-enormous-nature-toilet
Employers are definitely morally superior to employees…
And
Ms Westacott might like to consider harsher laws governing business behaviour to “repair their reputation”?
The commoditisation and co-option of water is proceeding apace, complete with declamatory rhetoric if so much as a drop is wasted and not capitalised on. 😐
Andrew Bolt 1.
Dickhead protestor 0
https://twitter.com/i/status/1189434777419411456
nath says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 4:45 pm
Its hilarious seeing all the ALP stooges going all out in their Queensland suck up job considering the ALP just got 26% of the vote up there and 20% of the seats.
Here’s a tip. You aren’t going to fool Queenslanders that you are pro-coal or pro-Queensland. They wont believe you.
_________________________
Well nath I have to disagree with you on this characterisation. Labor was anti-Adani in Victoria and pro-Adani in Queensland, then it became neutral on Adani generally, then it became for Adani strictly on the merits and then finally it became for Adani.
Its pretty clear really.
Citizen
Harsher laws for exes might please the anti-business crowd but its really HR that needs the riot act as it is responsible for payroll.
“My view is that unchecked right-wing media power means that in the United States today, no issue can be honestly debated and no election can be fairly decided. If California voters recall their governor in the belief that the state budget deficit is four times higher than it actually is, if Americans think Saddam Hussein was behind September 11 before hearing any evidence, if 19 percent of the public thinks it is in the top 1 percent tax bracket, if Americans view criticism of the government’s national security policies as tantamount to treason — thank the right-wing media and those who abet it.”
Written 15 years ago and about the USA, I think that it the situation is even worse now and worse in Australia, where, for example, there is only ‘liberal media’ at the fringes and no equivalents of the New York Times.
And now the Noise Machine is taking over social media, which barely existed in 2004.
https://www.salon.com/2004/05/11/noise_3/
mundo says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 7:13 pm
Albo on a news grab talking up the CEFC without reminding voters that Labor created it.
Labor never learns.
_______________________
How’s Labor’s hard hitting attack on Angus Taylor going? Have the police arrested him yet / and/ or has he resigned?
I’m hoping Taylor never quits. He’s the gift that just keeps giving.
Google must have me pinged as a Trump supporter!
An advert just appeared on my PB screen selling various pro Trump items of merchandise. Hopefully William will receive a cent or two from my clicking on the advert.
Lars Von Trier:
[‘How’s Labor’s hard hitting attack on Angus Taylor going?’]
Great! They’re doing him slowly; rather liking an earlier post of his body-language.
Perhaps you could have a go at explaining a) what you believe Labor ought to be doing differently, and b) why you’re so very much more exercised at Labor’s failure to force him to resign than the fact that he should actually do so.
Reports are that Woolies failed to pay around $300,000,000 to around 6000 employees.
That is an average of $50,000 per employee. For many people it is the sort of amount that can make a crucial difference at critical points in their lives.
If, say, you had failed to meet your mortgage payments and your house was repossessed as a result of Woolies negligence, could you sue them?
What if you could not afford to pay for the surgery of a family member and that person died while waiting?
If the sda used member dues to examine pay slips rather than donate huge amounts to the actu and alp to get seats then perhaps they would have discovered this earlier.
The Congress Democrat’s have release the Resolution to be voted on, on Halloween
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6393-read-the-resolution-on-impeach/fe29cf89a1170104436e/optimized/full.pdf
‘nath says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:39 pm
If the sda used member dues to examine pay slips rather than donate huge amounts to the actu and alp to get seats then perhaps they would have discovered this earlier.’
Uh huh. The SDA helped Woolies pinch $300,000,000. Right. Bloody unions!
The sooner they turn wage theft into a criminal offence the better.
spr
I don’t understand that. I thought they were already investigating it. Is this something new? What does it mean?
As I seem to remember, LVT’s comment a few minutes ago was virtually the same as one made 24 hours ago by the same contributor……………I don’t think actual proposals for action are the goals of such individuals………..but in this day and age, who can say?
Boerwar @ #1238 Wednesday, October 30th, 2019 – 5:45 pm
They are retrospectively getting House approval to open the impeachment inquiry. Because whiney Republicans.
Tricot
Yep. It was the same point. The contributor was the same point. The main objective is to reframe any particular issue into some variation of ‘Labor bad’ and then to stand back while Labor supporters rush in to defend Labor.
It is classy stuff.
Sure I can William:
1) Taylor used dodgy figures to attack Clover Moore. There’s a reasonable trail of stuff ups , errors etc from Taylor which preceded this. You need to build on an attack and sustain it over a period of time. The goal is to have the PM decide it is too hard to defend the Minister and cut him loose. What’s Labor done – two faults – 1) went over the top suggesting it’s a Crimes Act offence – so when it turns out it isn’t any subsequent attack isn’t credible and 2) failed to prosecute relentlessly – Labor and we should all be talking about it now. Not happening
2) The offence or breach isn’t as important as the perception of the offence or breach created by prosecuting the attack. Some very serious issues can be ignored and sometimes trivial issues become untenable depending on the quality of the attack. Compare and contrast this matter with a Minister being forced to resign for travelling in the last Parliament in part to visit her Gold Coast rental property.
‘nath says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:39 pm
If the sda used member dues to examine pay slips rather than donate huge amounts to the actu and alp to get seats then perhaps they would have discovered this earlier.’
He actually said that!?! Look I know nasty nath’s middle name is ‘Labor vendetta’, but that’s just plain offensive. Oh wait, this is nasty nath we are talking about, so situation normal.
Confessions
Thanks but I still don’t understand. How could the Impeachment Inquiry have commenced without House approval?
Did the relevant Committee just start the inquiry without a formal House vote?
Taylor?
Lock him up!
I judge Woolies by its price for Twinnings’ English Breakfast Tea, the price of which is normally $11 (100 tea bags). About once a month the price is halved. While I’m not a very good shopper, I do take advantage of thereof. This store, employing over 200,000, rips off its employees’ ad nauseam – not only by paying them a pittance but also via wage theft. I’d shop at Aldie in lieu but I don’t like being seen there in public.
The first point might mean something, but all the second amounts to is that Labor isn’t bringing the full weight of News Corp, Sky News and talk radio down upon the government, like those superior tactical minds in the Coalition would be doing if this were a scandal involving a Labor minister.
What the fuck?
BW, one of the many lines of interference run by the Republicans is that there has not been a vote in the House of Representatives instigating the impeachment process. The Constitution does not mandate this, but as Fess points out, whiney bitches.
The Trumpists also complained about in camera hearings, and inability for Republicans to call witnesses. So these constraints are authorised in the resolution.
I wonder how many of these large organisations have outsourced their payroll to third parties?
It would be interesting to compare error rates when payroll was an internal function versus outsourced.
Having been in personnel back in the days when it was called personnel and having been involved in pay and allowances, I can recall underpayments. Usually human error and picked up by the employee because pay slips were easy to read and they knew they’d been underpaid.
spr
Ah. Thank you.