Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Wednesday 10:16am Back to Brexit, and the government lost a crucial vote on Tuesday that means it is unable to guillotine the Brexit bill through the Commons by Thursday. The second reading of the Brexit bill passed by 329 votes to 299, with 19 Labour and most independents voting with the Conservatives. However, the guillotine motion failed by 322 to 308, along similar splits as Saturday’s Letwin amendment. In both cases, opposition from the ten DUP MPs was critical in swinging these two votes against the government.
A long delay to Brexit is now very likely. Jeremy Corbyn has said Labour will agree to an election once such a delay is in place. Polls currently give the Conservatives a large lead.
Wednesday 9:56am The final seat result was as below. The final popular votes were 34.4% Conservatives, 33.1% Liberals, 15.9% NDP, 7.7% Quebec Bloc and 6.5% Greens. Turnout was 66.0% of eligible voters (down 2.8%).
6:23pm The Liberals lead in the last two undecided seats, and are likely to win 157 of the 338 seats, losing just one net seat in Ontario. The Conservatives have 121, the Quebec Bloc 32, the NDP 24, the Greens three and one independent.
5:57pm So Canada is likely headed for a Liberal government supported by the more left-wing NDP.
5:55pm Antony Green has an overall summary of vote and seat changes since the 2015 election. Currently Liberals and NDP have 180 seats combined, easily exceeding the requirement for a majority (170 seats) (post modified).
4:50pm Assuming current figures are near final, here’s how they compare with the CBC Poll Tracker (in brackets)
Libs 156 seats, 33.0% (137, 32.0%)
Con 122, 34.5% (124, 31.6%)
Quebec Bloc 32, 7.9% (39, 7.0%)
NDP 24, 15.9% (35, 18.4%)
Green 3, 6.4% (1, 7.5%)
So the Conservatives exceeded their polling in popular vote terms, beating the Liberals by 1.5% instead of losing by 0.4%. But they lost the seat count by 34 instead of 13. Far too many votes wasted in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while the Liberals won Ontario easily. And probably some tactical voting.
3:28pm It greatly helps to be regionally concentrated if you’re a minor party in a single-member system. The Quebec Bloc currently have 32 seats on 8.1%, the Greens just three seats on 6.3%. The Bloc won 33.0% in Quebec, the only province they contested.
3:14pm Not much change in the results. 156 Liberal leads, 121 Conservative, 32 Quebec Bloc, 25 NDP, three Greens, one independent. Conservatives lead Liberals by 1.3% on popular votes; could also be some tactical voting by left-wing supporters. If these results hold, Liberals plus NDP will have a majority (170+ seats). I hope the NDP will push the Liberals to electoral reform.
2:25pm I’m going for a walk on a (rare) sunny day in Melbourne. See you in 30 minutes.
2:24pm The Conservatives currently have a 0.6% lead over the Liberals in popular votes despite trailing by 35 in seats leading. It’s possible that there are big vote sinks for the Liberals in the cities still to be counted, or that the Conservative vote was too inefficiently distributed (see Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan).
2:14pm Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, voted for a right-wing government at the June 2018 provincial election, but the Liberals are currently leading in 77 of the 121 seats from that province. Another example of state elections not correlating strongly with federal results.
2:00pm Maxime Bernier broke away from the Conservatives to form the far-right People’s Party during the last term. CBC says he’s lost his seat.
1:53pm 152 Liberals, 118 Conservatives, 35 Quebec Bloc, 24 NDP, three Greens seat leads. Called elected are 82 Liberals, 75 Conservatives, 18 Bloc, three NDP, one Green
1:31pm A big problem for the Conservatives is massive vote wastage in Alberta. They currently have 72% of the vote there, but there are only 34 seats in that province.
1:22pm 140 Liberals, 107 Conservatives, 30 Bloc, 20 NDP, one Green seat leads. 22 losses for the Liberals, enough to cost them their majority.
1:11pm CBC News calls a Liberal government, probably a minority but we’ll see!
1:09pm 122 Liberals, 95 Conservatives, 21 Bloc, ten NDP, two Greens. Liberals shown losing 16 seats, enough to cost them their majority (had 184 of 338 in 2015)
1:00pm 93 Liberals, 69 Conservatives, 18 Bloc, nine NDP, one Green
12:53pm 71 Liberals, 44 Conservatives, 12 Bloc, eight NDP, one Green leads
12:51pm 58 Liberals, 40 Conservatives, 12 Quebec Bloc, eight NDP, one Green seat leads.
12:46pm 48 Liberals, 29 Conservatives, eight Quebec Bloc, six NDP and one Green seat leads.
12:03pm Will have lunch now, so I’m back in time for the 12:30pm deluge!
12:02pm In Atlantic Canada, the CBC Poll Tracker had voting intentions of 37.1% Liberals, 26.8% Conservatives, 20.0% NDP and 12.1% Greens. Results so far are 41.3% Liberals, 29.7% Conservatives, 16.7% NDP and 10.1% Greens.
11:57am One seat in Quebec closed at 10:30am, and that puts the Quebec Bloc on the board (very termporarily). Seat leads are 26 Liberals, five Conservatives, one NDP and one Green. Called seats are 17 Liberals, three Conservatives, one NDP
11:45am Greens are on the tally board, leading in one seat. 25 Liberals, six Conservatives, one NDP, one Green. In 2015, all Atlantic Canada seats went Liberal.
11:35am 24 Liberals, seven Conservative, one NDP leads. Ten Liberals, two Conservatives, one NDP called elected.
11:27am Antony Green tweets that these provinces are showing a 12% swing from Liberal to Conservative, but the Liberal vote was huge in 2015, and it may not carry to the rest of the country.
11:22am 24 Liberals, six Conservatives, one NDP seat lead, including eight Liberals called elected
11:09am 22 Liberals, six Conservatives, one NDP seat lead, including five Liberals called as elected.
11:03am Now 16 Liberals, nine Conservative and one NDP seat lead. Polls in most of Canada do not close until 12:30pm, with British Columbia (42 of 338 seats) closing at 1pm.
10:50am Welcome to a live blog of the Canadian election results by Adrian Beaumont. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation has up-to-date figures. Polls closed at 10:30am AEDT in four eastern provinces (32 of 338 seats), and the Liberals have leads in 12 seats, to two for the Conservatives, and one NDP. These eastern provinces are pro-Liberal compared to Canada overall.
In the latest on Brexit, Commons Speaker John Bercow did not allow the government to bring back its meaningful vote motion after it had been amended on Saturday. The government will now attempt to ram the Brexit legislation through the Commons by Thursday, but even if it succeeds, and the legislation is not unacceptably amended, the House of Lords is a big problem.
The Lords is far more pro-Remain than the Commons, and does not like to be rushed. As the Letwin amendment states that approval of the deal is delayed until all legislation passes parliament, it is likely that the government will need to accept at least a short Brexit extension.
If a General election was held today or fairly, soon I can see the Tories winning a majority of 90 at least, maybe into the 100’s. Labour would lose at least around 80 seats, maybe more than a hundred. I am not sure how many seats the Liberal Democrats would win, at least around 40, maybe as high as 60 or more. Along with SNP making a near clean sweep of Scotland as well.
Here’s a long article from CBC poll analyst Eric Grenier about the Canadian election results. The Tories failed to make gains where it counted most – in the Toronto suburbs. There weren’t many seats they could gain in Alberta, etc, and most of their big gains came in already safe seats.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-election-results-1.5330105?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar
In the UK, labour strategists are said to be against a pre-christmas election- middle of winter, disrupting xmas cheer – generally considered to be bad news for working class/poor turnout rates.
No doubt Boris and Cummings are acutely aware of this dynamic too.
@Tristo
Absolutely. There has been a surge in support for the Greens in parts of Brisbane. The QLD Greens are doing a fantastic job of growing their support in what is usually considered to be Australia’s most conservative state.
Eric Grenier’s explains why the Canada Poll Tracker’s seat expectations overstated the Tories even though they performed better than expected in national polls. The Tories performed way better than expected in the Prairie states and Alberta, beating their polls by 9 pts there. But that didn’t earn them any more seats than predicted in those states.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-poll-postmortem-1.5332548
On Brexit, an interesting hypothetical result from ComRes; Labour leads by one if Brexit doesn’t happen Oct 31. ComRes has been the most pro-Labour pollster recently. The poll average gives the Tories a 10-pt lead, but ComRes has them only four points ahead.
Britain Elects @britainelects
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11h
Westminster voting intention…
if “the UK has left the EU with a deal similar to the one negotiated by Theresa May”:
CON: 32%
LAB: 27%
BREX: 15%
LDEM: 17%
GRN: 4%
via @ComRes, 16 – 17 Oct
Britain Elects @britainelects
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11h
Westminster voting intention…
if “the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019”:
LAB: 27%
CON: 26%
BREX: 20%
LDEM: 18%
GRN: 4%
via @ComRes, 16 – 17 Oct
Also on Brexit, Macron could throw a spanner in the works as regards the expectation of a 3-month delay.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/macron-objections-delay-efforts-to-secure-uk-brexit-extension-1.4060736?fbclid=IwAR3UIHX3pHRyj3yBizdgb_05HCS_A86HlZqt3zfnN3FwHKOYWlTX4Sr53JE
Not sure if this is still the Brexit thread. If so…
The Conservative Party in Britain clearly believe that Brexit is important enough to have two post-referendum general elections for the *explicit* purpose of resolving the problems of the referendum, first with PM May and now with PM Johnson. Brexit is a huge distraction and consequent drag on the UK. So to an extent I agree with them. As the governing political party they need to get it done.
But why then is Brexit not important enough to hold even one extra referendum to help decide the issue? Surely Cambridge Analytica can do it again.
It is almost as if the folks in charge aren’t all that interested in Brexit in itself and just want to keep asking the voters, “Will you give us a clear majority in parliament?”, until they get the “YES!” they want. Who are real Brexit delayers? Is Brexit just convenient cover for other stuff? What are the real motives? Will they get the answer they want this time?
Asking for a friend.
Thanks AB. This bit from your link, I think, is the key bit.
Like I expect nearly everyone on the planet, Macron too wants Brexit over. Macron seems to have decided that Johnson can’t make it happen. So if Johnson has to “die in a political ditch” (election or referendum), then so be it.
Yes, this is the Brexit thread. There’s some Brexit info in the live Canadian election commentary, so it replaces the Sunday night Brexit post.
It seems Boris Johnson wants an election, but he also wants his deal voted through before Parliament shuts down for the election. He could then go to the election shouting from the roof tops that he got Brexit done. This would diminish the threat of the Brexit Party, who would then only be able to pull in very hard line Brexiteers by campaigning that this wasn’t a true Brexit. I think Labour absolutely need Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal to be still in play at the election, not already passed. As the poll above seems to indicate, such a scenario absolutely brings the Brexit Party in to play, as they could campaign hard for their “clean break” or no deal Brexit as still a live option. This is the best scenario for Labour as it would split the Conservative vote. So, I think Labour should make their support of an election conditional on Boris Johnson agreeing to pull his deal and not try and legislate it prior to the election. Otherwise, there seems a real chance the deal could get through.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10208539/government-strike-corbyn-election/
I suppose that makes sense that Johnson wants another election rather than another referendum. Only parliament can actually get it done. But that parliament has failed cuts both ways. Maybe another referendum will work better. Democracy, right?
Try to ignore the “bosses” slur against Labour. But it seems as if the UK parliament will stop functioning until Johnson (who is in charge) gets his way. The issue is how the EU will interpret these playground antics. I’m guessing the EU will wait until the last minute to let the UK know if an extension will be granted. After all something unexpected might happen. Then with parliament on strike and unable to accept the EU preconditions, No Deal will fall over the line.
https://news.sky.com/story/eu-delays-brexit-extension-decision-11844673
If all you see is uncertainty in the UK you have two options, interfere or wait. The EU is hands off when it comes to a country’s internal politics, so they will wait. Johnson may be banking on this.
Brexit Central continues to be revealing.
Nigel Farage shares his fears and casual hypocrisy. (A General Election is OK but a Referendum is an imposition. And people only matter if they share his opinion.)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/25/mps-must-seize-chance-rethink-boris-johnsons-horrifying-deal/
The “wolves” ask why not ratify the deal after Brexit?
https://wolvesofwestminster.co.uk/?p=2226
First off, surely the EU parliament has a say in this too, and it would be silly to run that risk. Secondly, and more importantly, perhaps the blatant gamesmanship of the last months has eroded any remaining trust among UK parliamentarians. The reason that the “wolves” can’t fathom might be a simple fear that the WA would not be ratified because the current votes are tactical (and misleading) and the desired No Deal may then achieved through simple inaction?
More great UK polls for Boris, though the Tories’ lead is down from 15 pts to 13 in YouGov. It’s up from 13 to 16 in Opinium, and they’ve got 40% support. Brexit plus Tories at 48-50%.
Europe Elects @EuropeElects
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3h
UK (GB), YouGov poll:
CON-ECR: 36% (-1)
LAB-S&D: 23% (+1)
LDEM-RE: 18% (-1)
BREXIT-NI: 12% (+1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 6% (-1)
+/- vs. 20-21 Oct
Fieldwork: 24-25 October 2019
Sample size: N/A
Europe Elects @EuropeElects
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UK (GB), Opinium poll:
CON-ECR: 40% (+3)
LAB-S&D: 24%
LDEM-RE: 15% (-1)
BREXIT-NI: 10% (-2)
+/- vs. 15-17 Oct
Fieldwork: 23-25 October 2019
@Adrian Beaumont I am waiting for the next Survation poll to come out.
Anyway with Labour polling about 24% of the vote, is really bad news for the party. That is worse than their 1983 result and if they get that in a General election, that would be the worst result since 1918.
Also I think the Liberal Democrat vote is being underestimated as well, if a Christmas election comes, especially if the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats make an electoral pact. If that goes ahead, I can see the Liberal Democrats winning up to 60 seats.
It puzzles me why Jo Cox’s killing isn’t termed an assassination. But in that context, the “Future of England Survey” published last week is troubling.
https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/1709008-future-of-england-survey-reveals-public-attitudes-towards-brexit-and-the-union
The troubling questions involve attitudes to violence, that I can summarise as, “Is violence a price worth paying to take back control?” Respondents are asked to consider “violence directed at MPs” and “violence where members of the public are badly injured”. Although the nuances are different for the two questions (intent to harm versus actual harm) they have roughly the same meaning. Is it OK to try to hurt or accidentally hurt someone *badly* to “take back control”?
The survey didn’t include Northern Ireland; perhaps because it only accounts for 3% of the population. But the results for the other nations were: England (38%, 39%), Scotland (28%,27%) and Wales (38%,40%). In England and Wales more than 1 in 3 are comfortable with the idea of violence directed at MPs and violence that causes “bad injury” to members of the public. And Scotland isn’t much better at more than 1 in 4.
This doesn’t of course mean that every third person in the UK would condone “murdering” a politician or accidentally putting someone in hospital to “take back control”. But it does seem to mean that every third person condones violence that might. Are so many in the UK really OK with that level of violence? How seriously should anyone take this result?
Late Riser
I think the questions don’t distinguish between whether people are saying they are willing to be violent themselves, vs willing to be at risk of violence being done by other people.
Jonno @ #118 Sunday, October 27th, 2019 – 6:26 pm
Hmm. That may be worse. I hadn’t thought of it that way, as willing perpetrator or accepting victim. I interpreted the responses as if from bystanders, meaning one in three were OK with the violence being done by and to someone else. At what level of community acceptance of violence does policing become impossible?
I hope the respondents are merely frustrated and angry. They simply didn’t think through their answers.
This feels a little unreal. Just a few hours ago I speculated on the accuracy of a poll that indicated a third of the entire UK population was OK if a politician were attacked violently in the cause of “taking back control”. In the end I dismissed it as anger and frustration creating a clumsy response to a clumsy question.
I’ve just seen this.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/27/kill-gina-miller-crowdfunding-page-investigated-by-police
Hopefully it’s an isolated case. And perhaps it remained active for so long because it was deliberately ignored, as a “joke” or “merely” an empty threat. But Brexit has tapped into a dark place.
BTW: The Guardian currently has an open thread on the original poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/27/brexit-poll-found-we-want-to-believe-the-worst-of-ourselves
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/27/labour-agree-election-boris-johnson-never-pursue-no-deal-brexit-jeremy-corbyn
A big “IF”, but if we assume no imaginable Brexit deal will ever win majority acceptance in the present UK and EU parliaments, and No Deal Brexit is explicitly taken off the table, then on the British side all that is left is to remain in the EU. (The EU still has the option of booting out the UK.) Is this Corbyn’s way of finagling Remain without losing Labor Leavers? It might also explain why Johnson is desperate to change the makeup of parliament.
Summarising what might be the preferences for the 3 options of Johnson and Corbyn:
Johnson: 1 Deal, 2 No Deal, 3 Remain
Corbyn: 1 Deal, 2 Remain, 3 No Deal
Since Deal is proving impossible it has come down to second preferences. Corbyn is ready to allow Remain to happen and Johnson is trying to get to No Deal. Right now both of them are fighting to avoid the option they least want, hence Johnson’s rhetoric and Corbyn’s stubbornness.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1188566838386581506
The CON/BREXIT and LAB/LIBDEM polls continue to mirror each other. Johnson is seeing off Brexit. Corbyn not so much.
EDIT: added #image.jpg
If the SNP and LibDems go along with an election, increase their seat numbers, but in the process the Tory’s form majority government in support of this shitty deal or no deal – is it worth it?
For the SNP perhaps yes, if the mission is to secede. But the Lib Dems??? Their whole raison d’etre is rendered obsolete.
I believe the number of Tory pickups from Labor leave-leaning seats is maxed out at ~20.
The Tories should lose at least that many seats to the SNP in Scotland (10) and Lib Dems in remain seats just on existing seat polling.
I dont care if Labor lose a bunch of remain seats to the Lib Dems or SNP, it would actually be great if minority govt was retained but Labor get a beating thereby forcing Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbott out… but its the irony of losing remain-leaning seats to the Tories on FPTP that is the killer scenario.
This national polling is really not massively relevant, its a question of concentration of remainers on a seat by seat basis that could determine this.
Tory majority govt avoidance is all about remain voters voting tactically in a GE for one party in a given seat and not fracturing. For this, it is ideal that Labor and the Lib Dems draw up a non-compete cooperation list… Labor should stand aside in any seat the LD can win from the Tories (that could be 40+ seats) and, in return, the LD should stand aside in any seat where splitting the remain vote delivers the Tories a Labor remain-leaning seat. Cooperate to minimise hard brexit.
But they wont do it. And that’s why Boris wins, it seems to me. Both election and brexit. And, god forbid, until 2024.
Boris/Cummings well know that there isnt a majority for his deal unamended. They know the EU wont be the no deal trigger (despite Macron’s bluster). His only strategy is to go to an election and gain seats. I hope Corbyn has someone semi-intelligent in his campaign setup, that person should be on the phone to Swinson who would be more than receptive.
In evolutionary terms the LibDem’s raison d’etre is to be fit survivors, same as the rest. But maybe their strategy is to be in coalition again?
Yes. Is there a pollster who has attempted this? Facebook would have the data. This opens up the UK to Cambridge Analytica style persuasion.
Adrian, if you’re monitoring pollbludger, your reported Thuringen result (http://adrianbeaumont.net/) confused me until I discovered the total seat count dropped from 91 to 90. I was positioning the gain/loss numbers on a left right spectrum to see if anything popped out and I noticed that the losses total 18 weren’t balanced by total the gains only total 17. But regardless of that, it seems as if the losses in the centre (SPD and CDU) became gains for the right (FDP and AfD), with the left (Greens, Die Linke) unchanged. ??
EDIT: deleted “are”
Late Riser,
There’s analysis of the Thüringen results on Deutsche Welle.
https://www.dw.com/de/keine-mehrheit-nach-wahl-in-th%C3%BCringen/a-51010677
” Ein regierungsfähiges Bündnis ist nicht in Sicht.”
Edit: Yes, I know you probably knew that, but just in case.
Ante Meridian, thanks. The AfD could claim to have gained all the votes lost by the CDU. I would interpret that as the right is moving further right and taking some of the centre with it.
But where to from here? If the other parties continue to shun the AfD, that takes 22 seats out of a possible coalition. The minimum needed is 45, maybe 46. How do you come up with 45? If you take out Die Linke (29) you’ll never get there, so they have to be part of it, but only if the FDP contribute all their 5 seats, and they have said no to that.
Hence: “Ein regierungsfähiges Bündnis ist nicht in Sicht.”
But the FDP apparently only got their 5% threshold by 6 votes. So I expect the first thing will be a recount.
* If the count holds up would the CDU try to form a coalition with the AfD? Probably not.
* If the count doesn’t hold up then who would get the 5 seats no longer given to the FDP? If 2 or more go to to the CDU (and why not) then nothing has changed.
So if the process in Thuringen allows for a new election that’s where I expect it to go.
And I would expect the AfD to be emboldened and prepared to stoke more than a little anger. The polarisation will ramp up another notch.
A cartoon I couldn’t resist.
Barring any changes from a recount, any majority government would need two of the Union, the Left, and the Alternative. That means if the Union sticks to its guns and refuses to work with the others, and the others won’t work with each other, then no majority is possible. Does anybody know if minority governments are allowed in Germany?
Of course, the results in one piddly little Land don’t matter much in themselves, but the signs of polarisation are a little scary if they continue in the country as a whole.
A very limited search of the interwebs revealed that, at least nationally, minority governments are allowed in Germany. I didn’t see anything about individual Länder.
Back to Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/28/government-likely-adopt-lib-dem-election-plan-says-jo-swinson
This video has an interesting take on the plan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuJRhaOlbi0
To summarise, amendments can be amended, and follow a different process than the 2/3 majority needed for an out of cycle election. Johnson, if he goes this route, may find himself voting for amendments he never expected.
That was a useful video, LR. Thanks.
New thread.