Canadian election results live!

Live commentary on results from the Canadian election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Wednesday 10:16am Back to Brexit, and the government lost a crucial vote on Tuesday that means it is unable to guillotine the Brexit bill through the Commons by Thursday.  The second reading of the Brexit bill passed by 329 votes to 299, with 19 Labour and most independents voting with the Conservatives.  However, the guillotine motion failed by 322 to 308, along similar splits as Saturday’s Letwin amendment.   In both cases, opposition from the ten DUP MPs was critical in swinging these two votes against the government.

A long delay to Brexit is now very likely.  Jeremy Corbyn has said Labour will agree to an election once such a delay is in place.  Polls currently give the Conservatives a large lead.

Wednesday 9:56am The final seat result was as below.  The final popular votes were 34.4% Conservatives, 33.1% Liberals, 15.9% NDP, 7.7% Quebec Bloc and 6.5% Greens.  Turnout was 66.0% of eligible voters (down 2.8%).

6:23pm The Liberals lead in the last two undecided seats, and are likely to win 157 of the 338 seats, losing just one net seat in Ontario.  The Conservatives have 121, the Quebec Bloc 32, the NDP 24, the Greens three and one independent.

5:57pm So Canada is likely headed for a Liberal government supported by the more left-wing NDP.

5:55pm Antony Green has an overall summary of vote and seat changes since the 2015 election.  Currently Liberals and NDP have 180 seats combined, easily exceeding the requirement for a majority (170 seats) (post modified).

4:50pm Assuming current figures are near final, here’s how they compare with the CBC Poll Tracker (in brackets)

Libs 156 seats, 33.0% (137, 32.0%)

Con 122, 34.5% (124, 31.6%)

Quebec Bloc 32, 7.9% (39, 7.0%)

NDP 24, 15.9% (35, 18.4%)

Green 3, 6.4% (1, 7.5%)

So the Conservatives exceeded their polling in popular vote terms, beating the Liberals by 1.5% instead of losing by 0.4%.  But they lost the seat count by 34 instead of 13.  Far too many votes wasted in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while the Liberals won Ontario easily.  And probably some tactical voting.

3:28pm It greatly helps to be regionally concentrated if you’re a minor party in a single-member system.  The Quebec Bloc currently have 32 seats on 8.1%, the Greens just three seats on 6.3%.  The Bloc won 33.0% in Quebec, the only province they contested.

3:14pm Not much change in the results.  156 Liberal leads, 121 Conservative, 32 Quebec Bloc, 25 NDP, three Greens, one independent.  Conservatives lead Liberals by 1.3% on popular votes; could also be some tactical voting by left-wing supporters.  If these results hold, Liberals plus NDP will have a majority (170+ seats).  I hope the NDP will push the Liberals to electoral reform.

2:25pm I’m going for a walk on a (rare) sunny day in Melbourne.  See you in 30 minutes.

2:24pm The Conservatives currently have a 0.6% lead over the Liberals in popular votes despite trailing by 35 in seats leading.  It’s possible that there are big vote sinks for the Liberals in the cities still to be counted, or that the Conservative vote was too inefficiently distributed (see Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan).

2:14pm Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, voted for a right-wing government at the June 2018 provincial election, but the Liberals are currently leading in 77 of the 121 seats from that province.  Another example of state elections not correlating strongly with federal results.

2:00pm Maxime Bernier broke away from the Conservatives to form the far-right People’s Party during the last term.  CBC says he’s lost his seat.

1:53pm 152 Liberals, 118 Conservatives, 35 Quebec Bloc, 24 NDP, three Greens seat leads.  Called elected are 82 Liberals, 75 Conservatives, 18 Bloc, three NDP, one Green

1:31pm A big problem for the Conservatives is massive vote wastage in Alberta.  They currently have 72% of the vote there, but there are only 34 seats in that province.

1:22pm 140 Liberals, 107 Conservatives, 30 Bloc, 20 NDP, one Green seat leads.  22 losses for the Liberals, enough to cost them their majority.

1:11pm CBC News calls a Liberal government, probably a minority but we’ll see!

1:09pm 122 Liberals, 95 Conservatives, 21 Bloc, ten NDP, two Greens.  Liberals shown losing 16 seats, enough to cost them their majority (had 184 of 338 in 2015)

1:00pm 93 Liberals, 69 Conservatives, 18 Bloc, nine NDP, one Green

12:53pm 71 Liberals, 44 Conservatives, 12 Bloc, eight NDP, one Green leads

12:51pm 58 Liberals, 40 Conservatives, 12 Quebec Bloc, eight NDP, one Green seat leads.

12:46pm 48 Liberals, 29 Conservatives, eight Quebec Bloc, six NDP and one Green seat leads.

12:03pm Will have lunch now, so I’m back in time for the 12:30pm deluge!

12:02pm In Atlantic Canada, the CBC Poll Tracker had voting intentions of 37.1% Liberals, 26.8% Conservatives, 20.0% NDP and 12.1% Greens.  Results so far are 41.3% Liberals, 29.7% Conservatives, 16.7% NDP and 10.1% Greens.

11:57am One seat in Quebec closed at 10:30am, and that puts the Quebec Bloc on the board (very termporarily).  Seat leads are 26 Liberals, five Conservatives, one NDP and one Green.  Called seats are 17 Liberals, three Conservatives, one NDP

11:45am Greens are on the tally board, leading in one seat.  25 Liberals, six Conservatives, one NDP, one Green.  In 2015, all Atlantic Canada seats went Liberal.

11:35am 24 Liberals, seven Conservative, one NDP leads.  Ten Liberals, two Conservatives, one NDP called elected.

11:27am Antony Green tweets that these provinces are showing a 12% swing from Liberal to Conservative, but the Liberal vote was huge in 2015, and it may not carry to the rest of the country.

11:22am 24 Liberals, six Conservatives, one NDP seat lead, including eight Liberals called elected

11:09am 22 Liberals, six Conservatives, one NDP seat lead, including five Liberals called as elected.

11:03am Now 16 Liberals, nine Conservative and one NDP seat lead.  Polls in most of Canada do not close until 12:30pm, with British Columbia (42 of 338 seats) closing at 1pm.

10:50am Welcome to a live blog of the Canadian election results by Adrian Beaumont.  The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation has up-to-date figures.  Polls closed at 10:30am AEDT in four eastern provinces (32 of 338 seats), and the Liberals have leads in 12 seats, to two for the Conservatives, and one NDP.  These eastern provinces are pro-Liberal compared to Canada overall.

In the latest on Brexit, Commons Speaker John Bercow did not allow the government to bring back its meaningful vote motion after it had been amended on Saturday.  The government will now attempt to ram the Brexit legislation through the Commons by Thursday, but even if it succeeds, and the legislation is not unacceptably amended, the House of Lords is a big problem.

The Lords is far more pro-Remain than the Commons, and does not like to be rushed.  As the Letwin amendment states that approval of the deal is delayed until all legislation passes parliament, it is likely that the government will need to accept at least a short Brexit extension.

133 comments on “Canadian election results live!”

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  2. Are the Canadian Conservatives as devious and manipulative as their US, UK and Australian cousins when it comes to electioneering?

  3. Conservatives seem to be having difficulty get seats from leading to elected category – currently back to leading in five seats but none elected – but seeing its not clear whether these are seats they already hold or are seats they are taking off someone else hard to discern its significance

  11. Previous blog, AB informed us that

    Seat expectations are 139 of 338 Liberals, 121 Conservatives, 40 Bloc, 35 NDP and two Greens.

    For comparison, currently
    (expected) leading
    (139) 131 Liberals
    (121) 100 Conservatives
    (40) 27 Bloc Québécois
    (35) 13 NDP
    (2) 1 Greens

    Changing rapidly, though.

  16. I’ve thought for a while that Jacqui Lambie should have seized the moment to create a parochial Tasmanian party based on the Bloc Québécois model. Done right such a party ought to be able to consistently take one seat each half-Senate election and credibly threaten to take a second, and would often be in a position to negotiate good outcomes for the state.

  17. So how likely is it that we’ll finally see substantive electoral reform in Canada (that Trudeau promised last time and basically squibbed)?

    Surely the minors providing confidence would demand FPTP be replaced this time around?

  20. The best possible outcome in Canada is a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the sole balance of power. The next best possible outcome is a Liberal majority. Bloc Quebecois proving the big stumbling block……

  21. Cameron C,

    Do you think that Bloc is taking votes from NDP, or is it more complex than that?

    I do not know much about Canadian politics.

  22. 1:31pm A big problem for the Conservatives is massive vote wastage in Alberta. They currently have 72% of the vote there, but there are only 34 seats in that province.

    The Greens vote is the opposite. Compare Greens on 7.4% of the vote having them leading in 1 seat, with Bloc Québécois on 7.7% leading or holding 34 seats.

    Minor parties need to concentrate their support. Major parties need to do the opposite.

  26. LR –
    I am not that informed of Canadian politics, but being interested in electoral reform more broadly I came across the fact that Trudeau had specifically promised to end FPTP, but then ran away from it 2 years later.

    As to reasons … the limited commentary I have seen makes it all sound to me as if Trudeau wasn’t getting his preferred option, and was spooked by the political risks and decided it was all too hard. Or something.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-electoral-reform-mandate-1.3961736

  29. Thanks Jackol, much the same as I read. I’m trying to figure it out too. It’s probably not as easy as it sounds. If Trudeau scrapes in, as seems likely, I’d take a punt that either he says, “Fuckit! Now or never!”, or he wimps it with the aim of staying on a third term. Hard to tell with him, but if I had to guess I’d go for the second option.

  30. Are all the parties in Canada that are likely to get seats to the left of the Conservatives?

    It seems odd there are no right wing fringe parties like we have in Australia.

  31. OK, os according to Wikipedia, there is some evidence that Bloc Q and NDP may have voter shifts between them:

    The Bloc was the largest party in Quebec after Canadian federal elections, and either the second- or third-largest party in the House of Commons, for seven straight federal elections from the 1993 election until 2011. The 2011 election saw the party win just four seats and lose official party status after a wave of support for the New Democratic Party. By 2014 the party had been reduced to two seats because of resignations and expulsions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloc_Québécois

  32. @swamprat

    The conservatives were effectively wiped out in 1993 after a vote split between right wing parties and were uncompetitive until they merged again in 2003. Memories are still raw.

    Maxime Bernier left the conservatives this time around and started his own nationalist party (People’s Party of Canada) and has lost his seat.

  33. The Bloc is taking cotes off both NDP and Liberal, denying the Liberals potentially of a majority. However paradoxically this leads to a Liberal minority with NDP holding the balance of power.

  36. WOW

    Just came up for air.

    There haven’t been too many WOWs on this site recently.

    The Libs exceeded my expectations. But more importantly, the NDP hung on to enough seats for them to be majority partners of the Libs.

    Trudeau will have to listen to Singh’s wish-list. But he will not have to worry too much about the Conservatives or the Bloc.

    The big surprise was the poor performance of the Tories in Ontario, particularly in Toronto and its surrounds.

    As someone with a foot in both camps, I’m proud that enough Canadians were able to resist the Conservative sleaze. Unfortunately the Australian electorate failed to have that degree of judgement.

    This result goes a long way to salve the wounds of May 18.

  38. [2:25pm I’m going for a walk on a (rare) sunny day in Melbourne. See you in 30 minutes.]

    Adrian setting the example for WB on work life balance.

  39. At least the Canadians aren’t sufficiently sucked in by the RWNJ nonsense to elect them back into government. They must have a better bullshit filter than we have here.

  40. Beguilded “… I’m proud that enough Canadians were able to resist the Conservative sleaze. Unfortunately the Australian electorate failed to have that degree of judgement.”

    It might help that Canada is a Rupert-free zone.

    It’s an interesting question – is the Populist Right so strong in Britain, the USA and Australia, to the extent of taking over the mainstream Centre-Right parties, because of Rupert’s baleful influence? Or did these countries provide a fertile environment in which the the Rupert infestation could take root and thrive?

  42. Watching the civil, well informed, non-partisan and completely vitrol free commentary on CBC is just such a contrast with what I’m used to in Australia. My god, how far we have fallen after 23 years of unrelenting anything-goes hysterial mean and tricky nationalist dog whistling.

  44. mikehilliard @ #43 Tuesday, October 22nd, 2019 – 2:18 pm

    Wait for the conservative media to pounce on this.

    Hey, fair enough. I’ll give them Canada if they’re willing to apply the same principle to the U.S. and make Hillary President, retrospectively back to 2016 when she won the popular vote by millions, and void any and all appointments (and other actions) made by Trump during his ill-gotten time in office.

    Otherwise no, they can fuck off.

  45. Ontario has really held firm for Trudeau (this is where the Conservative underperformance has “won” it for Trudeau), even Quebec to a lesser extent (i feared the Bloc doing even better there winning 40+ ridings). This has allowed them to keep >150 seats which not many polls were predicting.

    Jagmeet had such a strong campaign but NDP has lost 10 seats (a few in Quebec). He should absolutely insist on FPTP reform as their price for supporting Trudeau whether in coalition or outside; not that Trudeau should object at all… so many races where Cons are ahead on FPTP but would never win on a preferential basis.

    Geez Alberta looks more like Mississipi or Alabama than Queensland. 70% to 15% between the major parties!

  46. mikehilliard @ #43 Tuesday, October 22nd, 2019 – 2:18 pm

    Wait for the conservative media to pounce on this.

    Australia’s top election analyst [A. Green] has been tweeting about the results and as he points out, the Conservatives have actually received a higher share of the vote than the Liberals.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/oct/22/canada-election-2019-justin-trudeau-faces-reckoning-as-polls-predict-close-result-live

    It could also be pointed out to these folks that the Green party got 3 seats out of 338 on 6.3% of the vote (or whatever the final count will be). That’s an under-rep factor of 7. (% of the vote divided by % of the seats) By contrast the Conservative under-rep factor (34.4% of the vote divided by 35.8% of the seats) is close to 1.0 (about right).

    Electoral reform seems to be a theme,

  47. Looking at the Greens vote, Trudeau would be wise to do the electoral reform now and try to lock in the value of left leaning votes. Whether Green or not, they would be easier to deal with than the conservatives. As Ford in Ontario has demonstrated, the Canadian conservatives are just as far right as ours.

    Also IMO some pretty clear campaign style lessons here for Labor in Australia. Keep it simple.

  49. mikehilliard @ #43 Tuesday, October 22nd, 2019 – 3:18 pm

    Wait for the conservative media to pounce on this.

    Australia’s top election analyst [A. Green] has been tweeting about the results and as he points out, the Conservatives have actually received a higher share of the vote than the Liberals.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/oct/22/canada-election-2019-justin-trudeau-faces-reckoning-as-polls-predict-close-result-live

    So like Hillary Clinton then. The Canadian system is FPTP?

  50. Populations of Canadian provinces, FYI.

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/canadian-provinces/

    About 39% live in Ontario, which has about twice the population of NSW.
    Quebec has a population a bit more than that of NSW but we have nothing like it in Australia
    British Columbia has a population similar to that of Qld. Alberta’s a bit smaller.
    Maybe Newfoundland is Canada’s Tasmania, with Prince Edward Island being a smaller Tasmania, the other two Maritimes being larger Tasmanias.
    That leaves the Territories, with about 120,000 between them, plus the other two Prarie provinces with a million and a bit a piece (smaller WAs?).

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