Essential Research: US visit, economic conditions, Middle East intervention

A new poll records a broadly favourable response to Scott Morrison’s US visit, mixed feelings about the state of the economy, and support for Australia’s new commitment in the Middle East.

Essential Research has released its fortnightly poll, once again without voting intention results. It includes a series of questions on Scott Morrison’s visit to the United States, with results generally more favourable than I personally would have expected. For example, the most negative finding is that 32% agreed that Donald Trump’s presidency has been good for Australia, compared with 49% who disagreed. By way of comparison, a Lowy Institute survey in March found 66% believed Trump had weakened the alliance, and only 25% had either a lot of or some confidence in him.

Only 38% agreed that a good relationship between Scott Morrison and Donald Trump reflected badly on Australia, compared with 48% who disagreed. Other results were probably too influenced by question wording to be of much value. Fifty-seven percent felt Morrison had shown “good diplomacy skills” during the visit, a quality that might be attributed to anyone who maintains a straight face in the President’s presence. The statement that Morrison “should have attended the UN Climate Summit, alongside other world leaders” is compromised by the words in italics (which are my own), but for what it’s worth, 70% agreed and 20% disagreed.

A question on the state of the economy likewise produces a result less bad than the government might have feared, with 32% rating it good and 33% poor. Fifty-one per cent supported Australian military involvement in the Middle East, after it was put to them that Australia had “agreed to provide military support to their allies in the Middle East to protect shipping and trade in the region”, with 35% opposed.

Essential has not yet published the full report on its website, so the precise sample size cannot be identified, but it will assuredly have been between 1000 and 1100. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,065 comments on “Essential Research: US visit, economic conditions, Middle East intervention”

  1. ‘Big A Adrian says:
    Friday, October 4, 2019 at 3:52 pm

    BW, the greens will not deliver zero net emissions by 2030, obviously.’

    We agree.

  2. a r says:
    Friday, October 4, 2019 at 1:35 pm
    RI @ #651 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 1:05 pm

    In the context of unemployed workers experiencing humiliation and the loss of their civil liberties, consider what it would mean to a plant operator in a resource projector lose their job.

    To become unemployed is to become disenfranchised in this country. The Greens threaten the employment of workers in the resource States. It is absolutely no wonder they vote so firmly against the Greens and anyone that is daubed with their colours.

    There’s no solution being proposed there. Or even responsible acknowledgement of the fact that some jobs cause more harm than good

    In themselves, driving trucks, operating machinery, running loaders and conveyors, installing and fixing electrical machinery, computers, running terminals, ports and shipping, operating trains and maintaining lines…and the multitude of other jobs that contribute to, depend on or interact with these jobs…are not ‘doing more harm than good’.

    The moralising – the demonising- of work by the Gs is really very counter-productive. The very people who are affronted by negative depictions are the people on whom the greatest burden will fall, and they are the people whose support is most needed.

    Tell me again….how will the Greens appeal to the people they wish to disenfranchise socially, politically, economically and psychologically?

  3. RI @ #702 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 4:05 pm

    In themselves, driving trucks, operating machinery, running loaders and conveyors, installing and fixing electrical machinery, computers, running terminals, ports and shipping, operating trains and maintaining lines…and the multitude of other jobs that contribute to, depend on or interact with these jobs…are not ‘doing more harm than good’

    The Nuremberg Defence, briefly? I wouldn’t rely on it. It has been found not to apply in cases of genocide.

  4. The accusation of genocide is really highly regrettable. It is a toxic claim….a contemptible one, in fact. The blame-making is a recreational sport for some….

  5. Senator Murray Watt
    @MurrayWatt
    ·
    18m
    Big whack from Liberals Senate President Scott Ryan at @Barnaby_Joyce @mattjcan attempt to change Senate voting. Calls it for the rort it is.

    Barnaby has also claimed that Nationals represent the poorest Australian electorates

    @UrbanWronski
    19m
    Do Nationals represent the poorest Australian electorates? Barnaby is wrong.
    The four electorates with the greatest proportion under the poverty line are all held by the Labor Party, ranging from 18.4% in poverty to 17.3%.

  6. Ged Kearney @gedkearney
    ·
    10m
    Australia’s economic, social and environmental problems have three remedies… and they are jobs, jobs, jobs. The neoliberal experiment has failed: it’s time for full employment. My speech at
    @EduMelb
    https://bit.ly/337Lf3j

  7. “BW, the greens will not deliver zero net emissions by 2030, obviously.”

    With thier attitude that will be lucky to deliver anything by 2030 except more same same reasons why impotent purity is a good thing and better than being in Govt. 🙂

  8. lizzie @ #704 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 3:43 pm

    Diogenes

    Are cockroaches sentient? They’re brighter than many politicians as they know how to survive.

    Of course as a student of the planets biology we realise that – a good looking cockroach can be strangely attractive.

    I totally leave aside any odious comparisons to politicians, journalists, Elvis imperkinators (thanks Jimmy Durante) and clowns.

  9. At lunch with my sister today, an exceedingly rare event given the distance between our homes, I learned that her son-in law (my nephew-in-law?) had been awarded a Drucker prize of some sort, for writing a paper deemed to be in the top ten for the year. Neither of us know much about how any of this works (and me certainly nothing at all) but I think the Institute picks a topic and anyone can submit a paper on that topic. The authors of the top ten papers are flown to the Institute with their partners, and the top three get to present their work. It’s a global competition. All good. I have a clever nephew-in-law. But I was none the wiser as to what ‘Drucker’ is.

    So I searched when I got home, and found it to be something positive in the world. (Albeit from their own promotional material.) Here’s a sample.

    In the fall of 2017, Wartzman and Greenspun met over lunch with Buttigieg to pitch him on the concept of turning South Bend into a city of lifelong learning. The mayor immediately liked the notion and agreed that his name could be invoked in fundraising for the effort. But he had one stipulation: The project shouldn’t be housed in his office. Instead, he urged Wartzman and Greenspun to see if they could interest the St. Joseph County Public Library in becoming the long-term steward of a lifelong learning system.

    https://www.drucker.institute/courage/creating-a-city-of-lifelong-learning/

    Life Long Learning is a good read, maybe 10 minutes.

  10. GG

    Well done!

    The dark horse is John Bercow, whose resignation from the speakership could be accelerated by a week or two to enable him to preside over a referendum government. This idea is gaining traction and would provide the most emphatic non-party leadership to such a government. Of one thing we can be sure: the Queen’s parting with Johnson will not be reluctant. Even Corbyn would be received at Balmoral with greater enthusiasm.

  11. Trump?

    I suppose we should be thankful that the majority of gunslingers in the US are on Trump’s side. An assassination would be a disaster (even if …).

  12. I see the Adani/Climate Change monomaniacs have been at it all day again.

    C@t, the next time you post a childish, petty, stupid and useless comment like this one, I’m going to ban you.

  13. Scott Morrison has been named the most powerful person of 2019 in a who’s who of Australian movers and shakers compiled by The Australian Financial Review Magazine.
    The prime minister tops the Financial Review’s “Overt Power List”, which ranks the 10 people of the last 12 months who possess the power to dramatically lead and shape the country.
    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was named the second most powerful person in Australia, followed by NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian.

    Doesn’t mean they have the ability to lead us in the right direction. No prize for guessing the voter list.

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/afr-power-list-scott-morrison-named-australias-most-powerful-person-in-2019/942ce1dd-1d42-44e9-8f2a-46cbe4cf96d9?fbclid=IwAR1kzIw2h-G1Y5JVvjMr_bq-6-q8V0u8SZUJVwKH2VhFXgpdB4EKPCNJ5eE

  14. The way the economy has changed in the last three decades, the definition of a ‘working people’ has changed. Despite they engage in manual labor, Tradespeople are often now in being mostly self-employed or owning their own businesses and both them and miners often earn quite high wages. It is no surprise many vote for the Coalition, especially given some are earning many Professionals do. If I had become a tradesman or even a miner after I left High School, I can definitely see myself earning six figures by now, owning my own home, along with perhaps an investment property or a few.

    On the other hand there are a lot of people who have University degrees, especially in those occupations dominated by women, who don’t earn very much considering their qualifications. Especially given many who have graduated with Bachelor’s and even Masters degrees in the last decade, not being able to find work in the fields they studied in. The working class still exists, however its composition is different and many would be surprised who belongs to it.

  15. You may need to avert your eyes from this charming photo. Hint: he’s smiling.

    @KKeneally
    · 7h
    The AFR names Peter Dutton to its Power List. Fine, but his actions are not charming or cute. Dutton may think this AFR photo is endearing, or cool, the way Morrison wants us to call him “ScoMo”. Let’s not pretend. These two preside over an incompetent & reckless regime.

  16. lizzie @ #726 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 5:24 pm

    You may need to advert your eyes from this charming photo. Hint: he’s smiling.

    @KKeneally
    · 7h
    The AFR names Peter Dutton to its Power List. Fine, but his actions are not charming or cute. Dutton may think this AFR photo is endearing, or cool, the way Morrison wants us to call him “ScoMo”. Let’s not pretend. These two preside over an incompetent & reckless regime.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    He’s got Bette Davis Eyes!

  17. Paul Barratt @phbarratt
    ·
    3h
    The well informed Lowy audience must have been banging its collective head as Morrison gleefully displayed the depths of his ignorance of international relations and potential consequences.

  18. lizzie
    Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 5:24 pm
    Comment #727

    You may need to avert your eyes from this charming photo. Hint: he’s smiling.

    We are made of sterner stuff but if
    Mr. William Bowe is about
    Could the official
    Poll Bludger Exorcist
    clear the site please ❓ 😇

  19. RI @ #702 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 4:05 pm

    In themselves, driving trucks, operating machinery, running loaders and conveyors, installing and fixing electrical machinery, computers, running terminals, ports and shipping, operating trains and maintaining lines…and the multitude of other jobs that contribute to, depend on or interact with these jobs…are not ‘doing more harm than good’.

    We’re talking about coal mining, not ancillary things off to the side. People will still drive trucks (though over time the trucks will be powered by things other than petrol) and do all those other things. Hell, I run computers constantly, and it’s got nothing to do with coal. 🙄

    Tell me again….how will the Greens appeal to the people they wish to disenfranchise socially, politically, economically and psychologically?

    I think your assertion that the Greens “wish” to do any of that is mistaken. It’s simply a thing that’s going to happen; you either prepare for it as early and as best as possible (to minimize those negative effects) or stick your head in the sand until you can pop up for a quick “sorry guys, now you’re on your own; hope your employer set up some good severance packages for you” when the shoe finally drops and those jobs disappear anyways and you’ve done nothing but pretend like those poor saps could keep their jobs if only they voted how you wanted them to.

    Also you still haven’t proposed a solution. The jobs are going. Will you do anything about it aside from saying “Greens bad”?

  20. lizzie @ #730 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 5:36 pm

    Paul Barratt @phbarratt
    ·
    3h
    The well informed Lowy audience must have been banging its collective head as Morrison gleefully displayed the depths of his ignorance of international relations and potential consequences.

    Yeah but is anyone from the ALP tell what that is?
    Scrotty keeps going out there with a big bull’s eye on his chest going have a go Labor, go on I dare ya….go on, take yer best shot…..

  21. Greensborough Growler @ #727 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    lizzie @ #726 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 5:24 pm

    You may need to advert your eyes from this charming photo. Hint: he’s smiling.

    @KKeneally
    · 7h
    The AFR names Peter Dutton to its Power List. Fine, but his actions are not charming or cute. Dutton may think this AFR photo is endearing, or cool, the way Morrison wants us to call him “ScoMo”. Let’s not pretend. These two preside over an incompetent & reckless regime.

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    He’s got Bette Davis Eyes!

    ‘These two preside over an incompetent & reckless regime.’
    And Labor is all over this how?
    Tell me they’re keeping their powder dry.
    FFS
    ‘These two preside over an incompetent & reckless regime.’
    It sounds good, but clearly the ALP doesn’t agree.

  22. lizzie @ #719 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 5:12 pm

    Scott Morrison has been named the most powerful person of 2019 in a who’s who of Australian movers and shakers compiled by The Australian Financial Review Magazine.
    The prime minister tops the Financial Review’s “Overt Power List”, which ranks the 10 people of the last 12 months who possess the power to dramatically lead and shape the country.
    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was named the second most powerful person in Australia, followed by NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian.

    Doesn’t mean they have the ability to lead us in the right direction. No prize for guessing the voter list.

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/afr-power-list-scott-morrison-named-australias-most-powerful-person-in-2019/942ce1dd-1d42-44e9-8f2a-46cbe4cf96d9?fbclid=IwAR1kzIw2h-G1Y5JVvjMr_bq-6-q8V0u8SZUJVwKH2VhFXgpdB4EKPCNJ5eE

    Labor will hold a blow torch to these bastards…..any day now……

  23. mundo says:
    Actually, if you’re looking for someone taking over after Albo steps down following the 2022 rout……
    ________________________
    Albo will do well. His pasta kiss with Ding Dong is a prime example of why he will do well. If Shorten or Morrison had done that it would have looked creepy and confusing. Of course there is a good chance he will get undermined long before he has a chance to craft a platform and get a crack at an election. But if he does, I reckon he will win.

  24. @7NewsSydney
    · 10m
    The federal government is moving to overturn the ACT’s decision to legalise personal marijuana use. @M_McCormackMP says the Attorney-General is already looking into reversing the law, claiming it sends the wrong message. http://7news.link/hhcxgW #auspol #7NEWS

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