Essential Research: US visit, economic conditions, Middle East intervention

A new poll records a broadly favourable response to Scott Morrison’s US visit, mixed feelings about the state of the economy, and support for Australia’s new commitment in the Middle East.

Essential Research has released its fortnightly poll, once again without voting intention results. It includes a series of questions on Scott Morrison’s visit to the United States, with results generally more favourable than I personally would have expected. For example, the most negative finding is that 32% agreed that Donald Trump’s presidency has been good for Australia, compared with 49% who disagreed. By way of comparison, a Lowy Institute survey in March found 66% believed Trump had weakened the alliance, and only 25% had either a lot of or some confidence in him.

Only 38% agreed that a good relationship between Scott Morrison and Donald Trump reflected badly on Australia, compared with 48% who disagreed. Other results were probably too influenced by question wording to be of much value. Fifty-seven percent felt Morrison had shown “good diplomacy skills” during the visit, a quality that might be attributed to anyone who maintains a straight face in the President’s presence. The statement that Morrison “should have attended the UN Climate Summit, alongside other world leaders” is compromised by the words in italics (which are my own), but for what it’s worth, 70% agreed and 20% disagreed.

A question on the state of the economy likewise produces a result less bad than the government might have feared, with 32% rating it good and 33% poor. Fifty-one per cent supported Australian military involvement in the Middle East, after it was put to them that Australia had “agreed to provide military support to their allies in the Middle East to protect shipping and trade in the region”, with 35% opposed.

Essential has not yet published the full report on its website, so the precise sample size cannot be identified, but it will assuredly have been between 1000 and 1100. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,065 comments on “Essential Research: US visit, economic conditions, Middle East intervention”

Comments Page 1 of 22
1 2 22
  1. Rick Wilson unleashes holy hell on GOP for standing by Trump: ‘You strapped yourself to a suicide bomber’

    Anti-Trump conservative Rick Wilson uncorked a vicious tweet storm against his former Republican allies on Wednesday after watching President Donald Trump’s latest psychotic rant at the White House.

    Shortly after the president finished a rambling, falsehood-filled press conference with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, Wilson shredded the GOP for continuing to stand by a president who is clearly unfit for office — and he said they were getting exactly what they deserved.

    “The Trump Meltdown is your new normal,” Wilson said. “This is why you live in fear every minute of your waking hours. You know because you strapped yourself to this suicide bomber that when the vest goes off you die with him.”

    “You think that you are political geniuses for abandoning everything you ever claimed to believe in (except judicial fetishism) and smeared yourselves in Trump’s excrement while calling it honey,” he wrote.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    An extra half a million Australians will have to get a job or more working hours under the Reserve Bank’s aggressive plan to take the country to “full employment” in a move that has renewed pressure on the Morrison government to boost the economy explain Shane Wright and Eryk Bagshaw.
    A sobering article here from Bagshaw as he details the tough road ahead for employment and wages growth.
    Greg Jericho opines that the move by the reserve bank to cut the cash rate to its record low of 0.75% is a clear indicator that the economy is struggling mightily and that the bank feels the government has completely abandoned its responsibility for triggering economic growth, leaving the RBA alone to try to get things going.
    David Crowe tells us how Morrison is “cool” over the “very unusual” idea of releasing Australian diplomatic cables to a US probe into the investigation into Russian interference in the last presidential election.
    And Sam Maiden explains how Morrison deflected the call to reveal Alexander Downer’s diplomatic memo.
    Young Australians have been thrown under the bus over housing affordability yet again says Jess Irvine.
    The AFR editorial says that quantitative easing is no way to start up the economic motor.
    Euan Black writes that pressure is mounting on the big four banks to explain why they haven’t shared the full benefits of Tuesday’s rate cut – after research found interest rate moves had earned them more than $4.7 billion since 2016.
    An angry John Falzon writes that the neo-liberal model of capitalism is eating itself to death.
    The AFR explains how Labor is working overtime to mend relations with business, while also shifting its policy emphasis away from tax and spend.
    Michaela Whitbourn reports that the NSW corruption watchdog has flagged that its current inquiry into Labor Party donations “does not include” an investigation into whether state Labor MP Chris Minns was involved in an alleged scheme to disguise the source of donations to his 2015 election campaign.
    Jennifer Hewett says that it still seems the lens in financial services is aimed more at dealing with the regulatory and financial aftermath of the Hayne royal commission than on the economic challenges evident over the next few years.
    Sarah Martin writes that Barnaby Joyce has said the Coalition risks “political annihilation” in the bush if the drought worsens and it does not start building dams, as Labor lashes the government for failing to produce a national drought strategy.
    The Department of Home Affairs has poured cold water on a United Nations request to release from detention a Tamil family fighting deportation to Sri Lanka.
    According to Shane Wright Labor is vowing to stop any effort to overturn the legislated increase in the superannuation guarantee, signalling a political brawl with the Morrison government over any contentious findings from its retirement income review.
    Australia’s reign by older white men is an offence on us all writes Richard Denniss.
    Between Comcare and Dutton what hope have people like this got?
    John Collett explains how a climate action group backed by some of the biggest super funds and fund managers in the world has said big carbon-emitting companies and the industry associations representing them must have policies that better support the Paris climate agreement.
    The chase for water in the North is not just about cotton, but cotton is emerging as a central play. Headlines such as “The Next Cubbie Station, China’s $400 million investment in northern Australia” reflect the excitement over the emerging northern cotton industry. It will send shivers down the spines of others.
    Pru Goward wants governments to double down o domestic violence and to treat it as a the crime that it is.
    Family law inquiry is no sop to Hanson. It’s a deliberate move to bury previous reviews complains Jess Hill.
    The Morrison government’s welfare drug-testing trial is so “fatally flawed” it could not be used to “scientifically inform” a future national rollout, a Senate inquiry has been told.
    The cost of misconduct for the major banks and AMP just keeps ticking up. It’s not over yet but at this stage of peak remediation provisioning, the number appears to be approaching the magic $10 billion mark on a pre-tax basis writes Elizabeth Knight.
    Australia’s policy on political donations is keeping us out of the top ten nations on the Transparency Index, writes Dr Martha Knox-Haly.,13161
    According to Greg Barton Australia isn’t taking the national security threat from far-right extremism seriously enough.
    Judith Ireland reports that Australia’s Muslim community is urging the Morrison government to redraft its religious discrimination laws to include an anti-vilification provision, saying incitement of hatred and violence is a “fundamental threat to Australian Muslims”.
    Paul Karp explains how Gladys Liu and Josh Frydenberg have admitted that controversial Chinese-language signs instructed voters that the “correct” or “right” way to vote was to put a 1 next to the Liberal party candidate on ballot papers in the Victorian seats of Chisholm and Kooyong.
    When big companies fund academic research, the truth often comes last says Professor Lisa Bero.
    The ultra-orthodox Jews in Israel seem to be sticking together in protecting the vile former Melbourne school principal Malka Leifer.
    Fears switching the painkiller codeine to a prescription only medicine would lead to more people misusing stronger painkillers are unfounded, according to research just published by these two pharmacology academics.
    Boris Johnson has unveiled a Brexit plan for an alternative to the backstop.
    The president’s efforts to govern in his own self-interest will undermine the world’s faith in America’s commitments.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe posted a prescient cartoon from way back when Trump won the election.

    And he takes us to the UK for the Conservatives’ conference.

    Dionne Gain and Matt Davidson have views on housing affordability.

    From Matt Golding.

    Andrew Dyson on Trump’s request for help.

    Two beauties from Mark David on the drought.

    Zanetti and interest rates.

    Glen Le Lievre finishes his outline from yesterday.

    Jon Kudelka takes us into a bank’s head office.

    From the US

  3. ‘He’s in a tailspin’: Source tells CNN Trump is off the rails and ‘it’s chaos inside the White House’

    CNN political Analyst Gloria Borger observed on Wednesday that President Donald Trump seems to be “in a tailspin.”

    Borger’s remarks followed a wild Oval Office press conference, in which Trump suggested that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) should be investigated for treason.

    “He’s in a tailspin,” Borger explained. “I was communicating yesterday with somebody very close to the White House who said, ‘Look, it’s chaos inside the White House. There is nobody there who can say no to him. There’s nobody blocking the door to his office.’”

    “‘And he’s just spinning and spinning and spinning and there’s nothing you can do about it,’” she continued. “What he’s tweeting is the real Donald Trump and that’s what he said in this press conference where I think he was just out of control even for Donald Trump, calling the press corrupt.”

  4. Bernie Sanders candidacy may be finished..

    ‘Bernie Sanders experienced chest discomfort during a campaign event Tuesday evening and had two stents inserted to address a blockage in an artery, his campaign announced.

    “Sen. Sanders is conversing and in good spirits. He will be resting up over the next few days,” senior adviser Jeff Weaver said in a statement Wednesday. “We are canceling his events and appearances until further notice, and we will continue to provide appropriate updates.”

  5. BK

    Thanks as always for the roundup. I have this suspicion that Australia is sleepwalking into a recession – the global headwinds are increasing, and domestic policy makers are inadequate.

  6. BK,
    That guy used to have control of Water policy!

    Anyway, it’s patently obvious Barnaby Joyce wants more dams so more agribusiness mates can steal more environmental water. I mean, they ‘have to’ grow their crops to feed and clothe the people! 🙄

  7. I (occasionally) wonder what is in Frydenberg’s mind. Does he really believe his own bulldust? Is his department so hopeless that they are persuading him that we are not heading for a recession unless he pulls his finger out? Or, I suppose more important, do any of our ‘government’ believe what they are telling us about anything, unless it’s moralising about the poor?

  8. lizzie,
    Read this from an expert on Tyranny. It’s about Trump, of course, but it applies equally to his ardent pupil, Morrison, and Morrison’s sidekick, Frydenburg:

    Appearing on MNSBC’s 11th Hour with Brian Williams Tuesday night, Yale professor and On Tyranny author Timothy Snyder discussed Donald Trump’s “transformation” — from Washington, DC “neophyte” to a president “confident about exercising power, disposing of aides, and elevating those who prove their loyalty by following his orders.”

    Snyder began the segment by raising “two fundamental issues.”

    ‘The first is the President of the United States is supposed to execute the laws. It’s his job not to put himself above the law. It’s his job to know what the law is and execute it. That’s fundamental,” Snyder said

    “The second great danger here has to do with the facts and the truth. What we were seeing is someone who began his career as President of the United States by saying lots of things that were untrue.”

    Snyder continued, “Now we’ve moved into a new phase where he’s operationalizing untruths and making other people repeat them. He makes others around the world to spread a fictional version of what happened in 2016. This is familiar. This is what authoritarian rulers do. It’s what you think and feel, it’s not the truth that matters. This is where a democracy starts to tilt into something else, which is rather scary.”

  9. Cat
    “What is the bloody point of building more dams when there is no bloody water to go in them!?!”

    Obviously you don’t own shares in a construction company. The useless projects are just as profitable as the needed ones, often more so.

  10. Socrates @ #15 Thursday, October 3rd, 2019 – 7:18 am

    “What is the bloody point of building more dams when there is no bloody water to go in them!?!”

    Obviously you don’t own shares in a construction company. The useless projects are just as profitable as the needed ones, often more so.

    You’re right, Soc, I don’t think like a greedy grasper. 😆

  11. The prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether there is a transcript and if any transcript would be released.

    Alan Tidwell, director of the Center for Australian, New Zealand and Pacific Studies at Georgetown University, said “getting tied up in an American domestic political conflict is really bad for Morrison.”

    If he doesn’t release a transcript, “it affords an opportunity for people to constantly point to it and say, ‘What did you actually say?’ ”

    If he does, “Labor will still try to wedge [him] on it,” he said.

  12. “They talked about dams more than a thousand times in the parliament, this government has spoken about dams [but] they haven’t dug a hole yet anywhere in the entire country to build a dam,” Albanese said.

    Following controversy over Joyce’s role as special drought envoy, which Labor has criticised as a political appointment that has not delivered value for taxpayers, the former Nationals leader told Guardian Australia he agreed with Labor that the government needed to “get cracking” on dam construction.

    I’m not persuaded by Albanese either. This is like the blind man looking for a key in Falzon’s story. The problem is not the lack of dams, it’s the lack of rain and the mismanagement of the rivers.

  13. If Albanese wants hints on where to attack the government over infrastructure, he should watch the ABC show Utopia. The stories are so close to the truth it is at times painful for me to watch.

  14. Thanks for the roundup BK – there’s enough lunacy hidden there to satisfy even the most jaded of us.

    I am afeared that nothing matters because we are – in the words of the prophet —

    Because –

    There’s a hungry galaxy which — in space terms — is not too far away and it’s hurtling towards our Milky Way.

    Its name is Andromeda.

    The two are destined for a collision in about 4.5 billion years and astronomers are still unsure which system will cannibalise the other for ultimate supremacy.

    What they now also know is that Andromeda has been on a feeding frenzy in the past.

    The galaxy’s eating habits were the focus of an international study co-led by Dr Dougal Mackey from the Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the Australian National University.

    “What we know about Andromeda is that it’s roughly the same size as the Milky Way, both in terms of distances and terms of mass,” he said

    Another, unlikely but remotely possible scenario is one where Earth is destroyed by the cannibalistic showdown, or the Sun is thrown off course.

    “It’s not out of the question, but in general the stars in galaxies are spaced sufficiently sparsely that direct collisions between stars are rare,” Dr Mackey said.

    “However, it’s possible that the Sun could be thrown out of the merged Andromeda and Milky Way system by the collision, into intergalactic space, and/or a nearby close passage with another star could perturb the Earth’s orbit such that the Earth can no longer support life.

    “So it’s not factually incorrect to say there is a risk from the collision.”

    Douglas and Milko why did you not give us advance warning ❓ Is it now too late to reconstitute those old dugouts (Atom Bomb Shelters) and rebuild the baked bean stockpile ❓

    What use those imaginary damned dams now Mr. Whatsisname – plenipotentiary to the as yet unborn con artists, shills, artful dodger pick pockets and wedding attendees ❓ Eh ❓ Eh ❓

    Sorry – good morning everybody – I attribute the above to the vitamin B12 shot from yesterday. All complaints should be directed to Mr. W. Bowe Esq.🌟 😇🌟

  15. No wonder the Finnish leader was shooting ‘Help Me!!’ glances at the journalists during their press conference.

    Doug MillsVerified account@dougmillsnyt
    5h5 hours ago
    .@realDonaldTrump responds to reporters question about Ukraine during a meeting in the Oval Office.


  16. Maybe Albanese, by agreeing with Joyce, is encouraging Morrison to disagree with Joyce because Morrison reflexively disagrees with anything Labor suggests? That way you end up with no dams!

    (I’m just trying to figure it out 😀 )

  17. I enjoy Utopia, but for me it doesn’t ring true because our Federal Govt doesn’t even pretend to be nation building. As if they would even consider the outlandish proposals on the show. Look what they did to the NBN for example.
    Reminds me of The Games about the bungling preparations of the Sydney Olympics. The actual Games were the greatest in history and virtually flawless.

  18. Here’s another conservative bulldust artist, who has no idea of reality.

    · 16h
    If Britain is to be a free country, the difficulties of leaving simply have to be faced, and they simply have to be overcome.

  19. This makes very disturbing reading.

    This new inquiry is not about giving everyone a say. Few women will feel comfortable airing their most traumatic and humiliating stories before a politician who has already pre-judged them as liars. This is about boosting the grievances of a certain group of men – some dedicated fathers who have been wronged, and others excluded from their children’s lives because they are dangerous. In an inquiry like this, there will be no way to tell the difference between the two.

    If this new inquiry further entrenches the dangerous pro-contact culture of the family law system, one thing is clear: it will make it an even more dangerous institution for children.

  20. Torchbearer
    As a % of GDP, Australia has the highest spending on transport infrastructure in the OECD. We may not be attempting to do what is needed, but we are spending a colossal amount of money. Most is going on urban freeways with benefit-cost ratios well below one. A lot of the rest of the federal $ are going on an inland rail line that will provide a short term employment boost to a few rural NSW electorates, then prove about as useful as the Darwin – Alice Springs line.

  21. Lizzie

    I heard Albo speak when he was Shadow Minister on Infrastructure. He knew his brief well and spoke very well. McCormack spoke at the same conference and was hopeless by comparison.

  22. On Brexit, I no longer think the No-Deal Brexit camp are “stupid” or niaive. They want Britain to crash out because it suits the interests of their financial backers. So they have opposed every deal. There have been some interesting articles in the UK Independent on their motives. Some City of London financiers have plenty to gain by being freed of ECB financial regulations. I agree Brexit will do nothing for the poor and unemployed. Any of those who voted for Brexit are the real fools.

  23. Morning all

    Rick Wilson once again tells it like it is with respect to the Trump shit show.

    Meanwhile Boris Johnson’s plan to leave the EU is laughable. He is taking the piss.

  24. Socrates

    Albanese has had an infrastructure portfolio for a long time. McCormack would be hopeless on any subject, as far as I can see.

  25. As I’ve said previously, I’ve coped with having the fibs in power federally due to our Victorian State govt being very proactive on infrastructure.

  26. @JMcK2018

    “I didn’t ask him to write a book” said the PM. And anyway, a ‘written report was never part of the terms of reference surrounding Joyce’s appointment’…doesn’t seem you have to do much for $675K BUT you have to do PLENTY for Newstart

  27. Good Morning

    Labor moving away from tax and spend betrays its values. No more universal health care. No more social security and the list goes on. Thats what tax and spend is and why the right will always attack Labor on this.

    Moving away from this is to in fact throw Labor voters under the bus.

    The Labor party has truly become neo liberal chasing the right wing narrative that will always attack Labor for being socialist. Thats what Tax and Spend is. Raising revenue for services. The collective vision.

    Labor needs to change leader. So back to Shortenrat least he got that whole inequality thing is Labor’s long term future. I am appalled that Labor is moving so far away from its values that it truly is becoming a party of the right. The true lesser evil. Moving to the same same position the Greens have called it.

    I never thought I would see this happen. I still hope I won’t see this happen and someone in Labor will wake up and realise Labor just cannot win by being a pale imitation of the LNP.

    Watch the link Sprocket provided from Michael Moore. Labor is making the same mistake as the Democrats with Biden. Go back to before Beazley. Remember when Labor had mongrel in it. Also remember that right wing warrior Paul Keating helped craft those Bill Shorten policies that got its tax and spend moniker.

    For Labor its the Economy Stupid! means tax and spend is inevitable or its no longer the Labor party.

  28. Albanese is showing Joyce up as all talk and no action. I reckon there is a jobs theme being developed too.

    But it’s rhetoric. I don’t think he is actually going to fund any new dams.

    You are falling into the trap of assuming Labor MPs won’t misrepresent the truth like an LNO member would (3 times before breakfast).

  29. @Triplejay58 tweets

    Heard Rachel Maddow last pm, talking about new book about oil & gas industry.

    Inadvertently, Maddow was describing Australia since at least 2 March 1996, if you look at oil, gas & coal.

    The industry is “ranging like a ravenous predator on the field of democracy.” 1/

    Maddow explained the “resource curse”: a well-established idea that finding eg oil often harms countries, rather than helping them.

    Used Equatorial Guinea as a case study—to show how profits from a nation’s oil went not to citizens, but to kleptocrats.

    Sound familiar? /2

    The book also looks at the harm gas and oil have done closer to home. A particularly striking example is the pressure put on a University of Oklahoma researcher by energy companies and his own uni to suppress findings fracking is causing earthquakes (lots of earthquakes). /3

    In a nutshell, Maddow nailed the resource curse that has landed on Australia: a country is rich in a resource, which is dug up/sold.

    The money doesn’t go to the people. The money goes to the top 1%, the elites, & the government. /4

    And then that government spends all its time & money trying to stay in power & dig up more of those resources for elites/themselves.

    The country becomes poor. No gov services. Poverty increases. Education, Health, Social Security—all cut.

    Australia today. /5 #auspol #Blowout

  30. Spot on.

    Hence why laser like focus is required by Nancy Pelosi and co

    chris zappone
    At this point Trump’s strategy the same has it always been: when in a pinch, just blather confusing statements in every direction and rely on the media to chase them down until no one can follow what has happened anymore, imo.

  31. Sorry when I referred to Paul Keating as that Right Wing Warrior I was only meaning in the Labor party context not the political spectrum as a whole.

  32. Are we not surprised?

    Jeremy HerbVerified account@jeremyherb
    38m38 minutes ago
    The packet the State IG provided to Congress, obtained by CNN, contained dozens of pages that make many the same unproven claims about the Bidens that Giuliani and his allies have been making, as well as internal State emails pushing back on that

  33. I hope you infarct Greentaur when, at the next election, you ponder putting a number on your ballot paper next to the Labor candidate – whether to rank them higher than your liberal candidate or not.

    Albo will be Leader.

    The party will be offering bigger tax cuts for working and middle class.
    Labor will be pledging a better infrastructure program and policies to tackle stagnant household incomes and stagnant employment growth.
    Thee nvironment may get a mention, but not as to detract from the laser like focus of winning back voters that the Greens would prefer to simply die.
    Australia will still be exporting thermal coal.

    The acid test for you: who to give your preference to. Labor or the filth …

Comments Page 1 of 22
1 2 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *