Essential Research: US visit, economic conditions, Middle East intervention

A new poll records a broadly favourable response to Scott Morrison’s US visit, mixed feelings about the state of the economy, and support for Australia’s new commitment in the Middle East.

Essential Research has released its fortnightly poll, once again without voting intention results. It includes a series of questions on Scott Morrison’s visit to the United States, with results generally more favourable than I personally would have expected. For example, the most negative finding is that 32% agreed that Donald Trump’s presidency has been good for Australia, compared with 49% who disagreed. By way of comparison, a Lowy Institute survey in March found 66% believed Trump had weakened the alliance, and only 25% had either a lot of or some confidence in him.

Only 38% agreed that a good relationship between Scott Morrison and Donald Trump reflected badly on Australia, compared with 48% who disagreed. Other results were probably too influenced by question wording to be of much value. Fifty-seven percent felt Morrison had shown “good diplomacy skills” during the visit, a quality that might be attributed to anyone who maintains a straight face in the President’s presence. The statement that Morrison “should have attended the UN Climate Summit, alongside other world leaders” is compromised by the words in italics (which are my own), but for what it’s worth, 70% agreed and 20% disagreed.

A question on the state of the economy likewise produces a result less bad than the government might have feared, with 32% rating it good and 33% poor. Fifty-one per cent supported Australian military involvement in the Middle East, after it was put to them that Australia had “agreed to provide military support to their allies in the Middle East to protect shipping and trade in the region”, with 35% opposed.

Essential has not yet published the full report on its website, so the precise sample size cannot be identified, but it will assuredly have been between 1000 and 1100. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,065 comments on “Essential Research: US visit, economic conditions, Middle East intervention”

Comments Page 14 of 22
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  1. The ACT has also passed legislation considerably increasing the power of renters. Inter alia, renters are now allowed to carry out minor works to improve their amenity. These include painting walls. There is a provision that renters have to restore the building to what it was at time of renting but I imagine that, if you are the landlord, good luck with that.
    Rent increases are to be capped to the CPI.
    Bonds are to be considerably reduced.

  2. RI @ #641 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 1:33 pm

    So Labor have to fight with all they have to staunch the flow of votes to the Greens and the Liberals.

    So after all this time, and after all this nonsense that you have been posting, you have finally figured out that what Labor has to do to win elections is to gain votes off the other political parties?

    I have to bow to your psephological genius.

  3. People from our culture used to:

    1. pay a penny for the fun of watching a hanging live
    2. hang and/or burn women for being witches
    3. enjoy cockfights
    4. enjoy bear baiting
    5. beat dogs and horses to death
    6. whip the living flesh off human beings
    and so on and so forth.

    Is ‘cruelty’ a cultural construct?

  4. E. G. Theodore @ #650 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 1:47 pm

    Opposing anything that is not going to happen is a complete waste of time, unless the person opposed is pursuing a dishonest agenda

    I can’t quite figure out if this is a clever use of irony, or you simply can’t see how ironic it actually is.

    I will give you the benefit of the doubt 🙂

  5. Ocasio-Cortez hits Trump after he calls her a ‘wack job’

    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) slammed President Trump on Thursday night after he called her a “Wack Job” on Twitter.

    “Better than being a criminal who betrays our country,” Ocasio-Cortez tweeted in response, apparently referencing Democrats’ impeachment inquiry into Trump’s dealings with Ukraine.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/464332-ocasio-cortez-hits-trump-after-he-calls-her-a-wack-job

  6. ‘Big A Adrian says:
    Friday, October 4, 2019 at 11:11 am

    “I am looking forward to zero net emissions 2030!

    In the interim I am curious about how the Greens resolve their existential conundrum: that they will be delivering far too little, far too late on CO2 emissions. As far as I can see no Greens even wants to go near this core issue for the Greens. Except to slag in passing anyone with the temerity to raise the issue at all.”

    Yes, how dare the greens have an election platform. May they be forever mocked and ridiculed for it – as presumably should any other minor party who has the gall to have a election platform while never holding any hope of forming government.

    Thats really the only point you are making right?’

    No. My point is this:

    1. You have a policy platform that you won’t deliver in time.
    2. The world will end, more or less, if you can’t deliver your policy platform in time.
    3. The reason you will not deliver your policy platform in time is because, in the broad, you cannot sell it to 90% of Australian voters.

    You have some options:

    1. Keep doing what you are now: cross your fingers and hope that you will change enough voters’ minds by well before 2030 so you can get the job done in time.
    2. Change your policy settings so that they are acceptable to change enough votes to form a 2PP.
    3. Accept that the Greens, as a political vehicle for delivering zero net emissions by 2030, have failed.
    4. Try something else.

  7. Opposing anything that is not going to happen is a complete waste of time, unless the person opposed is pursuing a dishonest agenda

    Says the person happy to let the anti-vaxxers go on their merry way, because getting enough unvaccinated people to actually enable a population-wide epidemic is never going to happen anyways. 🙂

  8. Descartes would have opined, had he known of their existence, that since wombats cannot think we owe them no moral debt.

  9. Firefox says:
    Friday, October 4, 2019 at 9:31 am

    …”The Stop Adani Convoy was timed perfectly to bring attention to the issue. The results do speak for themselves: The Greens received strong swings towards us in QLD”…

    Finally, a greenie admits that the true purpose of the convoy was to gain votes for the greens party, and had nothing at all to do with coal mining.

    Of course, now the Queensland Labor government is doing everything in its power to get that mine up and running so as to avoid suffering the same fate as its federal counterpart.

    Nicely done.

  10. The hippocampus of London taxi drivers is larger than the hippocampus of the average London population. The theory is that this is a response to having to learn and exploit the (spatial) Knowledge. Either that, or if you want to become a London taxi driver, first measure your hippocampus.
    But now with electronic driving aids, what will happen to the average size of drivers’ hippocampuses?

  11. Boerwar @ #659 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 1:45 pm

    ……

    …….
    …….
    Under the new ACT ‘sentient animal’ laws you now risk arrest.

    Garn, get out a here ❗

    That can’t include cannibalistic, flesh eating, moronic, wimmin hating, ugly bastards what I don’t like. Assholes what smash bear cans on their head or dim witted fuckwits wot hate people they’ve never met and like the thought of strangers being hungry and homeless.

    ……..and that ❗ 😇 That’s me. 😈 That’s the assholes (non sentient) mentioned above.

    When I was a kid the country (farm) kids would say that dogs don’t think. Ha ❗
    Where are you now you dumb redneck dickheads ❓ – Gone to Queensland droving and voting for No Notion – that’s where.

  12. Not Sure @ #660 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 2:18 pm

    Finally, a greenie admits that the true purpose of the convoy was to gain votes for the greens party, and had nothing at all to do with coal mining.

    Of course, now the Queensland Labor government is doing everything in its power to get that mine up and running so as to avoid suffering the same fate as its federal counterpart.

    I’m confused. Is it ok for Labor to gain votes for the Labor party, but not ok for the Greens to gain votes for the Greens party? Is it ok if the Liberals try to gain votes for the Liberal party, or does that just make them scumbags?

  13. Boerwar

    I think you’ve got something there. My friends and I have been marvelling lately at how blindly drivers are devoted to their GPS and wave maps or instructions away with disdain.

  14. Kayjay

    I assume that when federal parliamentarians gather in the Big House, they are implicitly regarded as sentient beings under ACT legislation.

    So, no beatings in the Big House!

  15. Descartes would have opined, had he known of their existence, that since wombats cannot think we owe them no moral debt.

    That seems fairly outdated.

    How about “anything that can experience pain should be treated humanely”? Whether or not it can muse and whinge about its pain in the precise same way a person can, I mean.

  16. Michael J. Biercuk @MJBiercuk
    NO NO NO NO NO NO

    One of the worst aspects of US #healthcare is employer-tied private health #insurance. It stifles mobility and entrepreneurship. We DEFINITELY do not need this in Aus.

  17. Boerwar @ #675 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 2:27 pm

    Kayjay

    I assume that when federal parliamentarians gather in the Big House, they are implicitly regarded as sentient beings under ACT legislation.

    So, no beatings in the Big House!

    Well, that dashed my dreams. You are merciless and to hell with de cart and de horse you rode in. 😎
    All together now ….
    ♫In a pair of ♫ cowboy boots.♫♪

    From the ABC web site which wants us to use effen Instagram (in your dreams – ABC).

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/abcmyphoto/2019-10-04/pic-of-the-week-20191004/11570354
    Where have all the flowers gone ❓

    Some great photos. Back to my nanny nap folks. Over and out.

  18. BW “No. My point is this:
    1. You have a policy platform that you won’t deliver in time.
    2. The world will end, more or less, if you can’t deliver your policy platform in time.
    3. The reason you will not deliver your policy platform in time is because, in the broad, you cannot sell it to 90% of Australian voters.”

    The Greens pitched to the electorate what they believe is the correct policy setting during the 2019 election. Thats really all there is to it. All parties do it as BAU. They are not saying its a fait-acompli, and if it doesn’t happen the world will end or whatever.

    That you are attempting to frame this as somehow a sign that the greens are unreasonable/extreme/stupid/funny – whatever, says more about your unhealthy and perverse need to slag off at the greens at every possible opportunity, than it does about the greens themselves.

  19. I have asked for the treatment by the @AustralianLabor party of me be reviewed at a meeting with @AlboMP toxic culture of paid factions, deals, old boys club mentality is alive & well. It would not be tolerated in ANY other organisation. #auspol https://t.co/TrzSEez107— Emma Husar (@emmahusarmp) October 4, 2019

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/acting-nsw-labor-boss-pat-garcia-quits-after-five-weeks-in-the-role-20191004-p52xm2.html

    Emma is doing the right thing by ripping the bandaid off the NSW ALP.

  20. Hopeless, hopeless government. Asleep at the wheel. And Albo is pictured playing silly games with spaghetti.

    *The national aerial firefighting centre, which two years ago flagged the need for an $11m funding boost, still has not received a decision from the Federal Government
    *The Government has not guaranteed funding for the only national body researching the future of bushfires
    *Twenty-three emergency services experts calling on the Government to consider the threat of climate change in fire planning have not received a response

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-04/the-bushfires-of-the-future-are-here-black-swan/11559930

  21. ‘Big A Adrian says:
    Friday, October 4, 2019 at 2:37 pm

    BW “No. My point is this:
    1. You have a policy platform that you won’t deliver in time.
    2. The world will end, more or less, if you can’t deliver your policy platform in time.
    3. The reason you will not deliver your policy platform in time is because, in the broad, you cannot sell it to 90% of Australian voters.”

    The Greens pitched to the electorate what they believe is the correct policy setting during the 2019 election. Thats really all there is to it. All parties do it as BAU. They are not saying its a fait-acompli, and if it doesn’t happen the world will end or whatever.

    That you are attempting to frame this as somehow a sign that the greens are unreasonable/extreme/stupid/funny – whatever, says more about your unhealthy and perverse need to slag off at the greens at every possible opportunity, than it does about the greens themselves.’

    We agree that the Greens pitched their zero net emissions policy by 2030.
    We agree that the Greens include in this policy the understanding that 2030 is a key date if we are to limit Global Warming to 1.5 degrees and that anything high would be catastrophic.
    We agree that the Greens achieved around 10% of the national vote for this policy.
    We agree that the Greens as a political party cannot deliver the outcome of zero net emissions by 2030.
    I assume we agree on this basic set of points.
    If we do then we come to the practical considerations for the Greens.

    What choices do you (the Greens) make if your current approach has not worked, is not working and, realistically, cannot possibly work within the necessary time frame?

    Do you go down fighting? Do you alter your policy settings to make them more palatable so that you end up with 51% 2PP? Do you dissolve the Greens Party and recombine the Greens’ political effort in some way?

    BTW, I am NOT arguing that you are any of the bad words you use about the Greens. I am arguing something else: that because of the political, economic, environmental and scientific landscapes you face some hard choices with respect to the choices you face.

  22. Lizzie and others,

    Morrison’s speech to members of the Lowy Institute at Sydney Town Hall was little more than an election speech without a forthcoming election.
    It was aimed squarely at the supporters of One Nation and those like-minded.
    It appealed to people fearful of “globalism”; people who are fearful of whatever horrors they are told to be fearful of by Jones, Bolt, etc, and the Murdoch rags.

    He left it non-specific – letting listeners apply it to whatever is currently frightening them.

    It could be criticism of boat turnbacks, or our offshore concentration camps, or our refusal to recognise global heating is really frightening.

    Josh said it was just about boats, off-shore incarceration and trade. Nothing like Trump, – no, no, no.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/04/scott-morrisons-negative-globalism-no-echo-of-trump-josh-frydenberg-says

    Other reports say it was about our refusal to try and stop CO2 emissions.
    https://outline.com/3mPCKZ

    No matter what – Scotty hears you and will not be influenced by those evil do-gooders in the UN.

    So why did he not give this speech when he was in Washington or New York? Why not proudly assert our independance from UN-style globalism? He could have stamped his foot and threatened to withdraw from the UN, and save us the membership fees.

    No, no, no. Belonging suits us.
    This was just an election speech, to stop defections to Pauline. after all.

  23. DP
    “Socrates @ #643 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 11:39 am

    what will happen to the average size of drivers’ hippocampuses?”

    I don’t think I can take the credit for that one. Judging from university students in an age of Google, Wikipedia, Smartphones and non-enforcement of penalties for plagiarism, it does not look good for London cabbies.

    As for cruelty, if it is defined as intentionally causing needless harm to others who can feel it, then evidentially it exists. The societal tolerance of cruelty is what is a human construct.

  24. Bad globalism is globalism that offers some form of checks and balances on those who despoil the various national underclasses and national environments and international environments.

    Good globalism is international tax dodging, the operation of hedge funds and the vast exploitation of temporary foreign workers.

    Morrison’s bad globalism is another variant on the calls from anarcho-capitalists to cast off the shackles. Bad globalism is one of the underpinnings of Brexit.
    Which does rather make it puzzling why the Far Left in Britain allowed itself to be lured into the Brexit camp.
    Is the Far Left really that silly?
    What happened to workers of the world uniting?

  25. Labor is a party of and for working people

    This is spectacularly untrue. A party for enterprise bargaining, weak rights to strike, weak unions, big private banks, revenue-seeking universities, escalating property prices, shrinking public housing, under-funded public health care, under-funded public schools, and using unemployed people to fight inflation cannot be described as pro-worker.

  26. For those wanting some relief from the partisans here, something slightly less mind and soul crushing than reading the laborite never-ending whingeing and BS here.

    Sometimes this place appears to be more and more like a crap version the Betoota Advocate or The Onion thanks to the laborites. Only far less funny and far more pointless and contemptible.

    This Is What Climate Change Looks Like
    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/ecosystems-report/
    Conclusion: Our Life Support – System on Life Support

  27. Quoll

    It is not looking too flash, IMO.

    But then again the Great Coalition Global Warming Drought is only a weather-related wealth event.

    So, not to worry.

  28. BW: “What choices do you (the Greens) make if your current approach has not worked, is not working and, realistically, cannot possibly work within the necessary time frame?
    Do you go down fighting? Do you alter your policy settings to make them more palatable so that you end up with 51% 2PP? Do you dissolve the Greens Party and recombine the Greens’ political effort in some way?
    BTW, I am NOT arguing that you are any of the bad words you use about the Greens. I am arguing something else: that because of the political, economic, environmental and scientific landscapes you face some hard choices with respect to the choices you face.”

    ————————-

    Firstly, I take your claims that this is merely constructive criticism with a healthy grain of salt. You spend literally up to several hours every single day on this blog doing nothing but sneering and jeering at the greens – for absolutely no purpose than for sheer vindictiveness. I don’t know why. On any other topic you seem thoroughly decent and reasonable. But mention the greens, you become completely unhinged. Bizarre.

    Anyway, the first point I would make is that there are signs the greens vote share is finally on the rise. This seems to have started even before the last election, and signs are it is continuing. Unfortunately in this current period of psephological crisis, the greens – like all parties – are at the moment in the dark as to how popular are their current policy settings, and how much, if at all, they need to be adjusted. One would hope that in the coming weeks and months we will start to get a clearer picture – assuming the pollsters start getting their acts together. So yes, while 10% isn’t exactly a great vote share, there’s every likelihood that its already better than that, and will continue to go up.

    The second point is that as the labor party is starting to come to grips with (although denial is still rife), compromising your core principles and trying to have a bob each way, can be disastrous electorally. The Greens don’t want to start going down that path

    And the third point is that the Greens don’t need 51% to have meaningful influence on national policies. In 2011 they got one of their key policies through on just 13% – thorugh their numbers in the senate. Absolute majorities will soon be a thing of the past. Governments of the future will be coalitions and/or confidence and supply agreements with independents and minors. And thats a good thing. It means more accountability and more Australians get a say through their elected reps. For the greens part, they are the single biggest non-major party, and this doesn’t look likely to change. They will therefore be the most powerful non-major party in Australian politics.

  29. Adrian
    Thank you for your reply

    ‘Anyway, the first point I would make is that there are signs the greens vote share is finally on the rise. ‘

    We agree on this point. The question is whether the Greens can reasonably expect this rise to deliver them government in time for them to deliver zero net emissions by 2030.

    The second point is that as the labor party is starting to come to grips with (although denial is still rife), compromising your core principles and trying to have a bob each way, can be disastrous electorally. The Greens don’t want to start going down that path

    We agree that the Labor Party had better have a clear set of climate policies going into the next election.

    ‘And the third point is that the Greens don’t need 51% to have meaningful influence on national policies.’

    I would agree that this is true at the margins and then only true if there are other parties that are willing to work with the Greens to deliver Greens policies. I put it to you that zero net emissions by 2030 with the massive impacts that this will have is not at the margins. It is an economy-wide retooling that would involving massive government intervention and would need to address the loss of $40 billion per annum in export earnings.

    My view is that this could only be delivered by a Greens Government that controls both the House and the Senate.

    You appear to be suggesting that the Greens will not need to form government in their own right but will be able to deliver zero net emissions by 2030 based on a BOP in the Senate. IMO the chances of this happening – are close to zero.

  30. “Under the new ACT ‘sentient animal’ laws you now risk arrest.”
    What the hell is a sentient animal? Where to you draw the line and how do you draw the line.

  31. Player One says:
    Friday, October 4, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    …”Does it matter what the question is given that planting a Magic Money Tree always seems to be the answer?”…

    Magic Money Tree sounds like the expression of a conservative mind.

  32. The private health insurance industry is lobbying the gov’t for a hand up.
    Specifically, tax-deductable employer paid- healthcare.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/sickie-insurance-push-for-the-boss-to-cover-worker-healthcare/news-story/fa66d8d036f5de3e3e120a67f91b3883

    Judging from the string of negative comments following the article I’d say they have Buckley’s.

    Anyway, Josh needs every cent to get his surplus over the line.

  33. ‘Diogenes says:
    Friday, October 4, 2019 at 3:35 pm

    “Under the new ACT ‘sentient animal’ laws you now risk arrest.”
    What the hell is a sentient animal? Where to you draw the line and how do you draw the line.’

    I hereby refer your enquiry to William Bowe.

  34. The treasurer wants more welfare for drought hit communities.

    What a waste – they will just use it on alcohol, drugs and gambling according to the other coalition ministers.

  35. Diogenes @ #710 Friday, October 4th, 2019 – 3:35 pm

    What the hell is a sentient animal? Where to you draw the line and how do you draw the line.

    Mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and possibly even a few humans. You know, things that 1) have complex nervous systems and 2) aren’t so arrogant as to believe that they’re somehow special and above all other things with complex nervous systems. 🙂

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