Forever blowing bubbles

More reform talk, this time involving suggestions MPs should be prevented from defecting from the parties for which they were elected.

Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters chair James McGrath has floated another reform bubble, this time proposing that parliamentarians should be prevented from resigning from their parties under pain of either facing a by-election or being replaced by the nominee of the party for which they were elected. The Australian helpfully summarises recent situations where this would have applied: “Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus from the Palmer United Party, Cory Bernardi and Julia Banks from the Liberal Party, Fraser Anning and Rod Culleton from One Nation and Steve Martin from the Jacqui Lambie Network”. University of New South Wales constitutional law expert George Williams is quoted noting potential constitutional issues, particularly in relation to the lower house.

The proposal brings to mind the passage in New Zealand last year of what is colloquially known as the “waka jumping bill”, insisted upon by Winston Peters of New Zealand First as part of his coalition agreement with Labour after the 2017 election. This requires a constituency MP who quits their party to face a by-election, while party list MPs must vacate their seats and have them filled by the next candidate along from the list at the election. The move was poorly received by academics and the country’s Human Rights Commissioner, as it effectively gives party leaders the ability to dispense with troublemakers. It was also noted that Peters himself broke away from the National Party to form New Zealand First in 1990, but changed his tune after a split in his own party in 1998. However, the McGrath proposal would seem to be quite a lot less pernicious in that it would only apply to those who leave their parties of their own volition.

In other news, I had a paywalled article in Crikey on Tuesday regarding the YouGov methodological overhaul that was discussed here on Sunday, which said things like this:

Of course, transparency alone will not be sufficient for the industry to recover the strong reputation it held until quite recently. That will require runs on the board in the form of more-or-less accurate pre-election polls, for which no opportunity will emerge until the Queensland state election still over a year away. It’s far from certain that YouGov will prove able to get better results by dropping the telephone component of its polling, notwithstanding that phone polling is less conducive to the kind of detailed demographic parsing that it apparently has in mind. Nonetheless, the movements the pollster records over time within demographic and geographic sub-samples will almost certainly offer insights into the shifting sands of public opinion, even if skepticism will remain as to how it sees the numbers combining in aggregate.

I’m not sure when exactly we will see the fruits of YouGov’s approach, but we’re due some sort of Newspoll result on Sunday or Monday, and the fortnightly Essential Research falls due on Tuesday – we’re still waiting for the latter to resume voting intention, but I was told a little while ago it would happen soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,328 comments on “Forever blowing bubbles”

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  1. ♫What ♪Kind of ♫Fool am ♪ I ❓

    I found myself watching Chanel 7 TV news. I blame a poltergeist wot switched on the not so smart TV.

    Very sincere talking head (the one who does that thing with his lips) starts off a story about skills shortage – cuts to a baker with some very nice looking croissants (or similar) who explains about the shortage of plumbers, electricians etc.

    A very nice looking lady Ms. Cash by name (possibly by nature) Minister for something tells we of the gullible generation that leaving school at year 10 gives one the advantage of having your very own car while the dumbasses are still studying.

    Baker cuts back in with the difficulty of getting a plumber etc.

    Ms. Plibersek gently explains that having a degree gives one a much better chance of getting a job.

    Sounds good to me – leaving at year 10 (would that be 15 years of age ❓ ) So not much chance of getting a really smart, with it, highly intelligent 16 year old Orstrayan girl or boy heading of to address the UN about climate change (or anything else for that matter).

    What’s not to like about that – and – with so many leaving at 15 most of the public schools could be either defunded of closed. Win/Win all round.

    And so say all of us. Hip, Hip ……..Hoo fucking rah ❗

    Newspoll 50/50. London to a brick on (thanks Ken Howard).

  2. Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    4h
    Agriculture makes up less than 2% of Australian GDP:
    The policy effort put towards it and the money its gets from other tax payers, given its size, is quite remarkable

  5. That guy looks gaily resplendent in his chartreuse puffy shirt. Just the thing to wear to a suburban pub or club to watch the Grand Final.

  9. C@t:

    I cannot for the life of me imagine why the man went on Dancing with the Stars. What little credibility he may have retained after being fired as Trump’s lapdog was surely whittled away with that effort.

  13. P1, thanks for that link to Catherine Ingram. Just a few sentences in and she writes about ‘climate chaos’. That stopped me reading and started me thinking. It’s a much better term than ‘climate change’. I’ll keep reading but I thought I needed to let you know my appreciation for the link. Thanks.

  18. “Climate Change” is right wing framing, popularised by President Bush’ administration. We shouldn’t use it.

    The original term “Global Warming” is what it was initially called and simply describes what’s happening. “Global heating” also tells it like it is, more starkly. “Climate chaos” is a good term, especially in the context of extreme weather and it effects. So is “Climate emergency”.

  19. Late Riser:

    I agree, stronger adjectives are requisite. The problem is, however, that scientists don’t like to you them. – against their grain.

  20. “Pauline Hanson is in the Senate thanks to Malcolm Turnbull, nothing to do with Dancing with the Stars IMO.”

    No, I wasn’t suggesting it was. I think it was just something she did while a perenniel losing candidate to boost her profile. I never watch the show but just caught it when visiting relatives.

  21. I know what we could run a book on tonight. Whether Scott Morrison gets a poll bump in Newspoll from going to America.

    I’m a no.

    (I live in hope, always). 🙂

  23. S&&&:

    Yes she was on that show, but from memory was using her appearance as a boost to a run in an election campaign somewhere.

  27. Mavis Davis @ #1273 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 7:16 pm

    Late Riser:

    I agree, stronger adjectives are requisite. The problem is, however, that scientists don’t like to you them. – against their grain.

    I was a scientist, once, many a long time ago. I was trained to avoid adjectives unless comparing like with like, where tame words like “more” or “less” were allowed. I gave up the calling but I still struggle with that whisper on my shoulder.

  28. Confessions:

    [‘Trump deliberately chose those words for his slogan.’]

    True. It worked for Reagan so why not try it, though Trump’s a far worse actor than Ronnie, Nancy deferring to astrology for guidance.

  29. Cheika Just organising his notes for the post match press conference in which he will complain about the referee for the God knows how many times in a row

  30. Late Riser:

    [‘I was a scientist, once, many a long time ago. I was trained to avoid adjectives unless comparing like with like, where tame words like “more” or “less” were allowed. I gave up the calling but I still struggle with that whisper on my shoulder.’]

    What you say is the crux of your discipline. I don’t think that, say, Flannery’s input has been helpful.
    The overwhelming evidence points to we’re stuffed. In my discipline, though, I’ll argue that I could get you off?

  32. ‘lizzie says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 6:38 pm

    Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    4h
    Agriculture makes up less than 2% of Australian GDP:
    The policy effort put towards it and the money its gets from other tax payers, given its size, is quite remarkable’
    Indeed. The Coalition holds 27 out of 34 regional seats in the large states and that is the answer to the Kouk’s implicit question.

  35. What do Dominic Cummings and Boris Johnson do? Scour the Statute books for arcane and archaic, little used Acts to invoke in order to achieve their nefarious ends!?! It sure looks like it:

    Boris Johnson is whipping up fears of rioting and deaths on the streets if Brexit is not delivered by 31 October so that he can try to invoke emergency powers and avoid extending the UK’s EU membership beyond that date, Labour’s Brexit spokesman, Keir Starmer, claimed on Saturday.

    After a week in which the prime minister was accused by MPs from all the main parties, including senior Tories, of inciting violence by accusing Remainers of Brexit “surrender” and “betrayal”, Starmer said it was part of an orchestrated plan to stoke a sense of outrage among Leave voters and create civil unrest, so an extension might be avoided.

    Increasingly MPs across the House of Commons believe Downing Street is considering using the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, which grants special powers in the event of a national emergency, as a way to override the so-called Benn act, which mandates the prime minister to seek a delay to Brexit if no deal has been struck with Brussels by 19 October.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/28/boris-johnson-invoke-civil-emergency-powers-brexit-deal

    People in the street are going to start dropping like flies from having their Adrenal glands hyperstimulated by these Populist Reactionary Conservative politicians!!


  36. lizzie says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 6:38 pm

    Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    4h
    Agriculture makes up less than 2% of Australian GDP:
    The policy effort put towards it and the money its gets from other tax payers, given its size, is quite remarkable

    Australians spend about 10% of their income on food. I think it is a pretty important 10%, not really ever tried to go without food, I will go with the science. 4% of the GDP is primary production not 2%.

    On the other hand, I don’t think it is worth destroying our environment for almonds.

  37. Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s Chief of Staff (Acting) has lost the confidence of Dotard. Apparently, Mulvaney has not handled the Ukraine matter well – so he is about to be fired.

  38. “I was trained to avoid adjectives unless comparing like with like, where tame words like “more” or “less” were allowed. “

    And vested interests use whatever it takes. They are not bound by standards of supporting evidence, objectivity, peer review, neutral language, verifiability or, for that matter, any relationship to objective reality.

    Scientists aren’t salesmen or propagandists. If they were they’d be doing a different job. But they seem to need the services of people who are.


  39. Late Riser says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 7:40 pm
    …..
    I was a scientist, once, many a long time ago. I was trained to avoid adjectives unless comparing like with like, where tame words like “more” or “less” were allowed. I gave up the calling but I still struggle with that whisper on my shoulder.

    I’m an engineer, technical meeting are normally pretty tame, very polite. Recently I left some with a feeling that if the bullshit over energy policy doesn’t stop there is going to be a riot. Very intemperate language being used.

  41. sprocket_ @ #1288 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 8:46 pm

    Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s Chief of Staff (Acting) has lost the confidence of Dotard. Apparently, Mulvaney has not handled the Ukraine matter well – so he is about to be fired.

    WTF!?! Again!?! Mick Mulvaney was the most Trumpy CoS of them all! Trump may as well be done with it and make Rudy Giuliani his CoS. He’s hung around longer than most.

  42. And CNN reporting that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel, aka Moscow Mitch, was the one who urged Dotard to release the transcript of the phone call – failing to see the ‘do us a favour’ comment was a near smoking gun

  43. Steve777, frednk
    My generation of scientists were brought up believing that science and scientists were trusted valuable parts of society. It didn’t turn out that way. Maybe it never was.

  44. Late Riser @ #1291 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 8:49 pm

    C@tmomma, the name calling has me thinking the Brexiteers (self-called) are getting desperate.

    Reminds me of a famous saying, LR:
    ‘Desperate men do desperate things.’

    However, there is also a Trumpy element to it, whereby they just keep rolling over the top of any and all objection, until they get what they want and where they want to go. To the extent that it reminds me of another famous saying:
    ‘Resistance is futile’.

    As a commentator observed of them this past week, they aren’t Conservatives, they are anarchists.

  46. Late Riser
    I like pointing out Engineers use science to predict the future. It works a lot better than a crystal ball, even with thoughts and prayers.

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