Forever blowing bubbles

More reform talk, this time involving suggestions MPs should be prevented from defecting from the parties for which they were elected.

Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters chair James McGrath has floated another reform bubble, this time proposing that parliamentarians should be prevented from resigning from their parties under pain of either facing a by-election or being replaced by the nominee of the party for which they were elected. The Australian helpfully summarises recent situations where this would have applied: “Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus from the Palmer United Party, Cory Bernardi and Julia Banks from the Liberal Party, Fraser Anning and Rod Culleton from One Nation and Steve Martin from the Jacqui Lambie Network”. University of New South Wales constitutional law expert George Williams is quoted noting potential constitutional issues, particularly in relation to the lower house.

The proposal brings to mind the passage in New Zealand last year of what is colloquially known as the “waka jumping bill”, insisted upon by Winston Peters of New Zealand First as part of his coalition agreement with Labour after the 2017 election. This requires a constituency MP who quits their party to face a by-election, while party list MPs must vacate their seats and have them filled by the next candidate along from the list at the election. The move was poorly received by academics and the country’s Human Rights Commissioner, as it effectively gives party leaders the ability to dispense with troublemakers. It was also noted that Peters himself broke away from the National Party to form New Zealand First in 1990, but changed his tune after a split in his own party in 1998. However, the McGrath proposal would seem to be quite a lot less pernicious in that it would only apply to those who leave their parties of their own volition.

In other news, I had a paywalled article in Crikey on Tuesday regarding the YouGov methodological overhaul that was discussed here on Sunday, which said things like this:

Of course, transparency alone will not be sufficient for the industry to recover the strong reputation it held until quite recently. That will require runs on the board in the form of more-or-less accurate pre-election polls, for which no opportunity will emerge until the Queensland state election still over a year away. It’s far from certain that YouGov will prove able to get better results by dropping the telephone component of its polling, notwithstanding that phone polling is less conducive to the kind of detailed demographic parsing that it apparently has in mind. Nonetheless, the movements the pollster records over time within demographic and geographic sub-samples will almost certainly offer insights into the shifting sands of public opinion, even if skepticism will remain as to how it sees the numbers combining in aggregate.

I’m not sure when exactly we will see the fruits of YouGov’s approach, but we’re due some sort of Newspoll result on Sunday or Monday, and the fortnightly Essential Research falls due on Tuesday – we’re still waiting for the latter to resume voting intention, but I was told a little while ago it would happen soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,328 comments on “Forever blowing bubbles”

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  1. I think I saw some of the masses last night.
    They were in Swan Street. They did not look like they desperately wanted to join the Greens, or, at the Greens’ urging, the Labour Party.

  2. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 5:06 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1199 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 5:04 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 4:43 pm

    Anyone using the term ‘woke’ spends too much time in right wing elitist circles

    It’s a word that has a meaning, so if you’re upset that someone correctly directed it towards you, then it just highlights your lack of self awareness.

    Anyway, I would have thought you’d celebrate your wokeness, it’s all you’ve got!

    I hear Mark Latham and Sam Newman use that term quite a lot…

    I’ve heard them say, “hello” quite a lot.

  3. lizzie says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 5:11 pm

    C@t

    Much as I love and admire you, please delete the word ‘reigns’ from your vocabulary. A horse is guided by the reins.

    … unless it rains. 🙂

  4. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 4:41 pm
    If there is some non union based woke left wing way to win back low information – low interest voters in seats like Lindsay, Robertson, Forde, Petrie, Longman, Herbert, Flynn, Dixon, Capricornia, Chisholm, La Trobe, Bass, Braddon, Boothby, Swan, Hasluck (not to mention whilst holding onto seats like Macquarie, Gilmore, Lilley, Hunter, Lyons etc), then I’d be genuinely interested in seeing it all laid out.
    ___________________________________________
    I’m not going to speak for the non-Victorian seats, but Chisholm is far from being a ‘low information’ electorate. On the current distribution the ALP shouldn’t even be thinking of getting La Trobe anyway.

  5. Rex

    Unlike you, I have never heard Sam Newman or Mark Latham say ‘woke’ many times.

    though this could be because, unlike you, i’m not welded to SkyFoxNews – in fact by a fortunate self-selection of media consumed, I am never confronted nor affronted by these 2.

    Everyone should try this

  6. nath
    says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 5:16 pm
    Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 4:41 pm
    If there is some non union based woke left wing way to win back low information – low interest voters in seats like Lindsay, Robertson, Forde, Petrie, Longman, Herbert, Flynn, Dixon, Capricornia, Chisholm, La Trobe, Bass, Braddon, Boothby, Swan, Hasluck (not to mention whilst holding onto seats like Macquarie, Gilmore, Lilley, Hunter, Lyons etc), then I’d be genuinely interested in seeing it all laid out.
    ___________________________________
    In any case I wouldn’t think being a union based party would help in any of these electorates. I can see it being a disadvantage in quite a few of them.

  7. “As soon as the ALP cuts ties with its vested interests they might have a chance at producing and selling a policy manifest that appeals to the wider masses”

    Mnnnn, sounds exciting. What does it actually mean? I know that the low interest low information voters of Lindsay et. all. are all agog at the prospect of Labor turning itself inside out to metamorphose into either the Greens or Reason, but what IS the policy manifest would follow and bring them all home to the promised land? Surely, someone with the obvious smarts that you demonstrate time and again on bludger must know …

  8. sprocket_
    says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 5:21 pm
    nath, are you suggesting Labor should be going after the ‘woke’ vote?
    __________________________
    sure, they should be aiming to get over 50% of the 2pp vote. that means building a voting coalition that includes the woke and the woke-ish.

  9. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1213 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 5:21 pm

    “As soon as the ALP cuts ties with its vested interests they might have a chance at producing and selling a policy manifest that appeals to the wider masses”

    Mnnnn, sounds exciting. What does it actually mean? I know that the low interest low information voters of Lindsay et. all. are all agog at the prospect of Labor turning itself inside out to metamorphose into either the Greens or Reason, but what IS the policy manifest would follow and bring them all home to the promised land? Surely, someone with the obvious smarts that you demonstrate time and again on bludger must know …

    As soon as Labor learns how to sell itself and it’s remarkable suite of achievements in government it’ll remain the tories’ whipping boy.
    As I’ve said before, how does the party responsible for creating modern Australia find itself in this position.

  10. “I’m not going to speak for the non-Victorian seats, but Chisholm is far from being a ‘low information’ electorate. On the current distribution the ALP shouldn’t even be thinking of getting La Trobe anyway”

    OK, nath – I’m prepared to bow to your knowledge of all things Melbourne and Victoria. I acknowledge that the garden state isn’t exactly letting the progressive team down anyway. So scratch La Trobe and Chisholm.

    That only leaves the parlourous state that progressives of any stripe (whether it be Labor, Greens, Reason or anybody else) are in in all the other outer rim and regional centre seats in the rest of the country. …

  11. “As soon as Labor learns how to sell itself and it’s remarkable suite of achievements in government it’ll remain the tories’ whipping boy”

    In other words, Mundo, its all just a marketing exercise. You are not exactly value adding are you …

  12. mundo
    says:
    .
    As I’ve said before, how does the party responsible for creating modern Australia find itself in this position.
    ____________________________
    It all started with those who said ‘don’t give the coalition a club to bash labor with”

    Re: The Tampa

    Labor leader Kim Beazley pointed out that there wasn’t a “cigarette paper” of difference between the two major parties on refugee policy.

  13. No I think clearly Chisholm is gettable. But 36% have a bachelors degree or higher compared to the Australian average of 22%. The Greens got 12% at the last election which gave the ALP a chance to take it. My point was that it’s not ‘low information’.

  14. Using the term ‘woke’ is rightwing thing? 😮

    From February 26, 2012 to April 19 2015, a sequence of incidents brought attention to the treatment of young black Americans by police and sparked an eruption in social justice and equality activism. In summer 2013, after George Zimmerman was found not guilty of killing teenager Trayvan Martin, the hashtag #blacklivesmatter was created, urging people to stay woke and be conscious of race struggles.

    A review of Google keywords shows the search for defining wokeness surged post 2015 with phrases such as “defining woke”, “woke meme”, “woke urban”, and “woke define” used.

    By September 2016, the phrase Black Lives Matter had been tweeted more than 30 million times. The phrase “stay woke” gained strength and became a symbol of movement and activism. Staying woke became the umbrella purpose for movements like #blacklivesmatter (fighting racism), the #MeToo movement (fighting sexism, and sexual misconduct), and the #NoBanNoWall movement (fighting for immigrants and refugees).

    https://theconversation.com/where-woke-came-from-and-why-marketers-should-think-twice-before-jumping-on-the-social-activism-bandwagon-122713

    If anything many people (that’s people of all political persuasions) now use the term woke in derisive fashion because people like Rex have abused it as a virtue signal. It isn’t the Sam Newmans and Mark Lathams of the world who have debased the term of its intended meaning, but pious virtue signallers largely on the left.

  15. Perhaps the voters of Chisholm would appreciate a clear Labor climate policy that doesn’t wedge itself by its bowing to the coal boosters.

  16. And looking at the image of Giuliani, I can’t help but recall the colourful description of him as “Trump’s bizarre homunculus”.

  17. Mexicanbeemer
    says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 5:50 pm
    Chisholm’s current boundaries make it a Liberal seat. Its close margin probably flatters the ALP a bit.
    __________________________________
    the margin is the margin.

  18. “I think I saw some of the masses last night.
    They were in Swan Street. They did not look like they desperately wanted to join the Greens, or, at the Greens’ urging, the Labour Party.”
    ———-

    Richard Di Natale is a known Tigers fan I thought

    FWIW it seems Richmond are also the first AFL club to join up for the Sports for Climate Action Initiative
    https://www.richmondfc.com.au/news/2019-09-18/richmond-partner-sports-for-climate-action-initiative

    Seems some are listening to messages about considering climate and environment in all aspect of life and culture

  19. “It all started with those who said ‘don’t give the coalition a club to bash labor with”

    Re: The Tampa

    Labor leader Kim Beazley pointed out that there wasn’t a “cigarette paper” of difference between the two major parties on refugee policy.”

    That MAY be where it all started for you nath, but would you care to explain – step by step – how Labor positioning on itself on Tampa and everything that followed lost Labor the outer rim and regions?

    I reckon there may be something in what you say, but for the opposite reasons than you probably think. If you think you are in any way on a unity ticket with the lost voters in the outer burbs on refugees I have bridge to sell you.

  20. “Perhaps the voters of Chisholm would appreciate a clear Labor climate policy that doesn’t wedge itself by its bowing to the coal boosters.”

    Yeah. Spot on. That’s exactly why 50.1% of the Chisholm voters preferred Gladys: it was her clear climate policy that didn’t wedge itself by bowing to coal boasters.

    Y’ll Know that makes sense …

    Try harder, Rex

  21. C@t:

    The Republicans set up fundraising efforts off the back of the impeachment announcement, almost immediately after it was announced by Pelosi. I am in no doubt about the presence of their online army.

  22. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    That MAY be where it all started for you nath, but would you care to explain – step by step – how Labor positioning on itself on Tampa and everything that followed lost Labor the outer rim and regions?
    ____________________________
    Simply because they bought into Howard’s game of making it into earth shattering news that refugees were arriving. Beazley should have laughed with scorn at Howard trying to win the election off the Tampa. He should have said that asylum seekers will be treated with respect even if they are determined not to be refugees. He should have said that he won’t be locking up kids. Only a coward and a sadist would do that. And then even if he had lost he could have stood tall. He lost anyway and looked a coward for it.

  23. Quoll @ #1235 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 5:53 pm

    “I think I saw some of the masses last night.
    They were in Swan Street. They did not look like they desperately wanted to join the Greens, or, at the Greens’ urging, the Labour Party.”
    ———-

    Richard Di Natale is a known Tigers fan I thought

    FWIW it seems Richmond are also the first AFL club to join up for the Sports for Climate Action Initiative
    https://www.richmondfc.com.au/news/2019-09-18/richmond-partner-sports-for-climate-action-initiative

    Seems some are listening to messages about considering climate and environment in all aspect of life and culture

    Richmond supporters are just Collingwood supporters without teeth.

  24. Nath
    Sure a margin is a margin but I find that the TPP can be misleading particularly if one party has been in office for a few terms. Before the election Chisholm’s margin was estimated at around 3% and this seat has shown loyalty to sitting MP’s only to then swing against that party once that sitting MP departs. Had Banks recontested I think she would have held her margin or had a swing to her.

  25. Mexicanbeemer
    says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 6:06 pm
    Nath
    Sure a margin is a margin but I find that the TPP can be misleading particularly if one party has been in office for a few terms.
    Before the election Chisholm’s margin was estimated at around 3% and this seat has shown loyalty to sitting MP’s only to then swing against that party once that sitting MP departs. Had Banks recontested I think she would have held her margin or had a swing to her.
    ____________________________________
    I think it just depends on the nature of Banks’ personal vote. It just might have included a portion of the Greek population of Chisholm, which naturally moved back to the ALP after she left the seat. I’m just saying that any seat within a 1-2% margin is in play.

  26. ‘fess,
    I’m just not sure that this t-shirt has the wow factor for Trump:

    This, otoh, I could get behind and buy if I were American:

    🙂

  27. Nath
    In practice any seat under 1% or 2% is in play, and as a government ages then I would add seats further up the pendulum maybe as far as 3% to 5% would be in play depending on its demographics. Chisholm can and does change hands but the thing to remember is there will be a redistribution before the next poll.

  28. Mexicanbeemer
    says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 6:13 pm
    Nath
    In practice any seat under 1% or 2% is in play, and as a government ages then I would add seats further up the pendulum maybe as far as 3% to 5% would be in play and depending on its demographics. Chisholm can and does change hands but the thing to remember is there will be a redistribution before the next poll.
    _____________________________________________
    which will be very exciting!

  29. C@t:

    OTOH I don’t think it was a good idea to let Sean Spicer be the face of your fundraising effort, even despite Dancing with the Stars 😆

    :large

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