This site’s slow-moving Call of the Board series, which takes a closer look at the results for every seat at the May 18 election, now makes it to regional Victoria. This area once enjoyed its fair share of marginal seats (see Ballarat, Bendigo and Monash/McMillan below), but now has only Corangamite to offer in the way of reliable election night seats-to-watch. Nonetheless, there were a few interesting things going on in the results for those who cared to look. (And while you’re here, note also the post on Brexit developments immediately below this one).
Ballarat (Labor 11.0%; 3.6% swing to Labor): Labor has been strengthening in this once highly marginal seat since Catherine King gained it at the 2001 election, at which it was the only seat in the country to shift from Coalition to Labor (with some help from the retirement of Michael Ronaldson, later a Senator). The only serious speed bump in that time was a 6.8% swing to the Liberals in 2013, reducing her margin to 4.9%, which she has now almost made good with successive swings of 2.4% and 3.6%. The Liberal primary vote on this occasion was down 4.0% despite the absence of the Nationals, who polled 4.2% in 2016, although they did face new competition on the right from the United Australia Party, which polled 4.6%.
Bendigo (Labor 9.0%; 5.2% swing to Labor): Victoria’s other regional city seat has followed a similar pattern to Ballarat over time: won by Labor from the Liberals in 1998, retained only narrowly in 2004 and 2013, and now looking secure again after successive swings of 2.5% and 5.2% in 2016 and 2019. The current member, Lisa Chesters, has now almost made up the 8.2% swing she suffered when she came to the seat on Steve Gibbons’ retirement in 2013. The Liberal primary vote was down 6.1% amid an overload of competition on the right, with One Nation, Conservative National and Rise Up Australia all in the field alongside the ubiquitous United Australia Party.
Casey (Liberal 4.6%; 0.1% swing to Liberal): Located on Melbourne’s eastern outskirts and held for the Liberals by the Speaker, Tony Smith, Casey was one of many Victorian seats that looked promising for Labor after the state election, but singularly failed to deliver on the day. Smith actually picked up a very slightly swing on two-party preferred, and none of the primary vote swings were particularly significant. Labor tended to do better in the more urbanised western end of the electorate, particularly in those parts of it newly added from La Trobe in the redistribution.
Corangamite (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 1.1%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Corangamite was designated as a notional Labor seat by the barest possible margin, so whoever received the swing was almost certain to win the seat. That proved to be Labor’s Libby Coker, just, in a result perfectly in line with the state average. Defeated Liberal member Sarah Henderson picked up a few swings in the booths newly added to the electorate on the Bellarine Peninsula, but the Great Ocean Road swung to Labor, reflecting its affluent and educated sea-changer demographic. The Greens were down 3.0% on the primary vote, as voters situated in the state’s south-west failed to warm to a candidate called Simon Northeast.
Corio (Labor 10.3%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Labor’s Richard Marles picked up 4.2% on the primary vote and 2.1% on two-party preferred, the former assisted by a small field of four candidates. The Liberals picked up some swings in Geelong’s down-market north, but the city centre and its surrounds went solidly to Labor.
Flinders (Liberal 5.6%; 1.4% swing to Labor): One of many disappointments for Labor was their failure to seriously threaten Greg Hunt in an area that had swung forcefully their way at the state election. Hunt was also little troubled by Julia Banks, who managed 13.8% of the primary vote, well behind Labor on 24.7%. Banks’s presence cut into the vote share for Liberal, Labor and the Greens – Hunt was down 3.8% to 46.7%, and needed preferences to win the seat for the first time since he came to it in 2001.
Gippsland (Nationals 16.7%; 1.5% swing to Labor): For reasons not immediately apparent, Labor was up 3.0% on the primary vote and cut slightly into what remains a secure margin for Nationals member Darren Chester.
Indi (Independent 1.4% versus Liberal; 4.1% swing to Liberal): As a number of highly trumpeted independents failed to live up to the hype elsewhere, Helen Haines performed a remarkable feat in retaining the independent mantle of Cathy McGowan. Haines’ primary vote of 32.4% was only slightly short of McGowan’s 34.8% on her re-election in 2016, although the Liberals put up a stronger show after gouging half of the Nationals vote. An interesting feature of the result was the 7.7% swing to the Liberals on two-party-preferred versus Labor, suggesting Haines’ preferences favoured the Liberals more strongly than did McGowan’s.
La Trobe (Liberal 4.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): A swing to the Liberals in Melbourne marginals was not a feature of too many pre-election predictions, but such was the outcome in La Trobe. Both major parties were up slightly on the primary vote amid a smaller field of candidates than 2016.
Mallee (Nationals 16.2%; 3.6% swing to Labor): Vacated with the demise of Andrew Broad’s two-term career, this was retained by the Nationals against a challenge from the Liberals, as it was in 2013 when Broad succeeded John Forrest. Liberal candidate Serge Petrovich actually fell out of the preference candidate before Labor, despite outpolling them 18.8% to 15.7% on the primary vote, and his preferences duly delivered a large winning margin to Nationals candidate Anne Webster. Webster would likely have won the seat even if Petrovich had survived to the final count, given her 27.9% to 18.8% advantage on the primary vote.
McEwen (Labor 5.0%; 1.0% swing to Liberal): Despite being an area of dynamic growth, particularly around Mernda and Doreen at Melbourne’s northern edge, McEwen turned in a largely static result on this occasion. This was in contrast to its form at the five elections from 2004 to 2016, when two-party swings ranged from 4.1% to 9.0%. Both major parties were down slightly on the primary vote as One Nation took to the field, scoring 5.9%, and Labor member Rob Mitchell’s two-party margin was slightly clipped after a blowout win in 2016.
Monash (Liberal 7.4%; 0.2% swing to Labor): The solid margin built up by Russell Broadbent since 2004 in the seat formerly known as McMillan was little disturbed, although the 7.6% recorded by One Nation took a 3.6% bite out of his primary vote. A noteworthy feature of the result was a heavy swing to the Liberals in the Latrobe Valley towns of Moe and Newborough, a pattern reflected in coal and electricity producing areas across the country.
Nicholls (Nationals 20.0%; 2.5% swing to Labor): After a three-cornered contest in 2016, in which Damian Drum gained the seat for the Nationals on the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone, the Liberals vacated the field in Nicholls (formerly Murray), and Drum retained the seat with a majority of the primary vote. One Nation polled 11.3%, easily the best result of the five seats they contested in Victoria.
Wannon (Liberal 10.4%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): Liberal member Dan Tehan picked up slight favourable swings on both the primary and two-party vote. Former Triple J presenter Alex Dyson polled 10.4% as an independent.
I should add. Turn Morrison’s rhetoric against him. Under Labor you get a job to have a go. We spend money to make sure you have a job.
Do not let the pink batts scare campaign stop the truth telling.
It’s also a campaign you can use Rudd Gillard and Swan to prosecute.
When there is a problem of unfairness or conscience, we usually find a LNP pollie protesting aloud. Are they all afraid of Dutton?
guytaur @ #498 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 11:39 am
It is rare that I agree 100% with your posts, guytaur. But this one deserves a gold star!
zoomster
says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 11:43 am
Ironically, Shorten was the one most likely to take action on the issue nath has nominated as his key issue.
____________________________
I doubt it. He promised a review. Of course if he had promised to restore the Parenting Payment to what it was before Howard and Gillard trashed it then he would have had my support.
I wonder when zoomster will start posting on her key issue: climate change. Any year now I expect.
BB:
Airplane transactions are often concluded with the plane being flown (loaded with lawyers) into international airspace so as to avoid taxes and other complications
Silmaj @ #413 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 12:44 am
Yes, whether it be the Rudd cult, the Abbott cult, the Catholic cult, the Murdoch cult, the Labor cult – you’re locking yourself into positions you may not be comfortable with.
Rex Douglas @ #506 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 12:05 pm
Not to mention the Greens cult.
Actually Howard, Rudd and Gillard all combined to run it into the ground.
This is the best overview of what has been done in recent times to grow child poverty in Australia:
https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-newstart-single-parents-are-271-per-fortnight-worse-off-labor-needs-an-overarching-welfare-review-107521
Nath
Don’t disagree. However to fund properly you need the good economic team of Labor. All governments make mistakes
That’s the phrase Labor has to use. Our proven good economic record. Talk about themselves as the good economic managers they are.
C@tmomma @ #493 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 11:17 am
Shortens ceiling was/is ministerial level. Just doesn’t have the communication and engagement skills required for the next level.
Labor has to get the LNP to prove Labor are lying when taking credit for doing the right thing on the economy.
The economy is a Labor strength. Labor has to start talking like it. Even if they have to start every day telling themselves. We acted we prevented the Great Recession in Australia.
Rex Douglas @ #511 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 12:20 pm
I just thought it was time for a different type of Prime Minister. A kinder, gentler, more consultative type of PM. Not a lying headkicker who thinks it’s all about the facade, as opposed to the substance.
I do wish the media would stop reposting that sickening (to me) pic of Morrison with his hand raised and his mouth open.
Laura Tingle’s article.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-31/religious-freedom-draft-bill-may-prove-morrisons-toughest-test/11466242?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_content=&utm_campaign=%5bnews_sfmc_newsmail_am_df_!n1%5d%3a8935&user_id=4917bfc3410d5ce553e9465cbdf98f823507fb7180d7c763d9c1ee45ff9b6c43&WT.tsrc=email&WT.mc_id=Email%7c%5bnews_sfmc_newsmail_am_df_!n1%5d%7c8935ABCNewsmail_topstories_articlelink
A motion quietly passed by NSW Greens last weekend.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/08/30/assa-a30.html
C@tmomma @ #513 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 12:33 pm
Shorten isn’t thought of as kind, gentle and consultative.
He’s seen as shifty, ruthless and untrustworthy..
Confessions
Labor can’t talk on this in the condemning stakes. That motion of the Greens is far more than Labor has done
guytaur says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 12:55 pm
Confessions
Labor can’t talk on this in the condemning stakes. That motion of the Greens is far more than Labor has done
The motion from the Greens will end being nothing more than a motion from the Greens. A non event,a nothing, a waste of time, space, and column inches in a paper if anyone should chose to waste column inches in a paper writing about a Green motion
Rex,
Shortens ceiling was/is ministerial level.
Which is several orders of magnitude higher than your (and my) ceiling of anonymous blog poster.
Edit: ipads are useless for editing
The author notes that not one Greens MP, state or federal has said anything about the motion. If that’s the case then it really is just an empty gesture.
nath
It still was the best chance of something being done. People like yourself – if they could be bothered – would have had the opportunity to put the argument.
As it is, changes to the situation won’t happen until a change of government. If we’re hanging out for the Greens to take power, as you apparently are, that means nothing happens in this sphere for the next fifty years.
It’s the same for climate change.
*If you have another path to change for either of these issues, you’re welcome to outline it.
FredNK and Confessions
The so called empty gesture is still more than Labor has done. Labor cannot critique the Greens for at least bothering to make your so called empty gesture
The benefit far outweighs the cost…. when the benefit is LNP political advantage and the cost is born by the tax payer. In fact, there really is no limit to the cost part in that equation. Similar for handouts to big farmers. Similar to mining magnates. Fiscal conservationism essentially means screwing down the cost and size of government for everything so they can spend up big on mates and votes and wedging the ALP.
zoomster
says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 1:14 pm
nath
It still was the best chance of something being done. People like yourself – if they could be bothered – would have had the opportunity to put the argument.
As it is, changes to the situation won’t happen until a change of government. If we’re hanging out for the Greens to take power, as you apparently are, that means nothing happens in this sphere for the next fifty years.
__________________________________
Seeing that after a change of government in 2007 things got worse in this space I highly doubt it. The fact that even former ALP candidates like yourself agree with the changes to the Parenting payment does not give me much hope that the ALP will do something good here. The tiny sliver of hope that they will is why they get my second preference vote before the Libs.
I’d like to see the cost/benefit analysis of flying this Tamil family on private charter …
______
The only currency to be used in these cases is headlines!
Jolyon Wagg
says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 1:11 pm
Rex,
Shortens ceiling was/is ministerial level.
Which is several orders of magnitude higher than your (and my) ceiling of anonymous blog poster.
__________________________________
Don’t shitpot yourself too much Jolyon. I can easily see you at the Ambassadorial level. Swanning around Notting Hill as High Commissioner.
Rex Douglas @ #516 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 12:53 pm
Good little Liberal frame regurgitator.
Zoomster
You Labor partisans keep saying Labor is the best chance of getting something done. Eg over Adani. What do we see. Labor giving the Green Light to the project and thus opening the coal carbon bomb.
Your words are hollow shown up by the actions of Labor.
Proving with no doubt the Greens told the unvarnished truth in the Batman By Election campaign.
Voters around the country have noticed.
https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/adanis-ticking-carbon-bomb/
guytaur
says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 1:34 pm
Zoomster
You Labor partisans keep saying Labor is the best chance of getting something done. Eg over Adani. What do we see. Labor giving the Green Light to the project and thus opening the coal carbon bomb.
_____________________
well said. Labor are like Warren Beatty in the movie Bulworth, telling African Americans truthfully that the Democrats aren’t really going to do much for them, then saying, ‘what are you going to do? Vote Republican?’
guytaur says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 1:19 pm
FredNK and Confessions
The so called empty gesture is still more than Labor has done. Labor cannot critique the Greens for at least bothering to make your so called empty gesture
My nothing is better than your nothing. You wold have to have a personality that would make you a Green member to come up with that.
I have no issues with that, where I have problems is when the Greens nothing stunts and activities stop real action from Labor.
frednk @ #463 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 1:37 pm
With the Greens, after all is said and done, there is far more said than ever done!
Thanks, lizzie, for bringing the Laura Tingle article on the Religious Freedom Bill back into focus.
I can see a problem with this part (which Tingle thinks will allow Folau to say what he wants in his own time):
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-31/religious-freedom-draft-bill-may-prove-morrisons-toughest-test/11466242
Well I think that a case could very easily be made by Rugby Australia that Folau, an employee of theirs, Tweeting about Homosexuals et al going to Hell, would have an easily demonstrable material effect on their income.
Simply put, all that they would have to show was that the people whom Folau vilified, had decided they wouldn’t come to Rugby matches any more. So, Rugby Australia would lose revenue as a result of Folau’s actions. And this would lead to ‘undue financial hardship’ for Rugby Australia.
frednk @ #530 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 1:37 pm
The only action we’ve seen from Labor is them falling over themselves to vote for the LibNat agenda.
guytaur
says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 1:34 pm
Zoomster
You Labor partisans keep saying Labor is the best chance of getting something done. Eg over Adani. What do we see. Labor giving the Green Light to the project and thus opening the coal carbon bomb.
You still don’t get it. It is a demand side problem, the Greens action are making it more difficult to deal with the issues that are resulting because demand is decreasing.
You are having no effect o the real problem, the reduction of demand, there is little problem with supply all you can do is move it around a little.
The other day we had this in the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/29/export-coal-emissions-consider-the-social-impacts-dont-just-account-for-them#comments
The photo is from a crash in the US, one of the countries that will pick up the slack with lower quality coal if Australia stops exporting. Not a good choice of photos I would have thought:
https://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-nws-train-cleanup-0627-story.html
Thanks guytaur and nath for your responses.
I look forward to seeing real action on these issues in fifty years or so.
I’m sure it will be worth the wait.
(Neither of you have provided the alternative path to change that I asked for. Because you can’t).
I joined the Labor party not because I think it will do what I want but because I think that it’s the best chance there is of getting what I want. I stay in the Labor party to try and push it further in the direction I want.
C@tmomma @ #465 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 1:39 pm
An employer asserting something and then acting unilaterally is not the same as having to prove the assertion to be true in some sort of court or tribunal. The balance of power shifts significantly imho.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 1:39 pm
…
The only action we’ve seen from Labor is them falling over themselves to vote for the LibNat agenda.
And all we see from Rex ( who I believes works in a Liberal senators office) is this sort of stuff.
FredNK
You still don’t get it. You have no idea of why Labor legislated a carbon price. It’s why Labor is too scared to go it alone but has to wait for LNP approval.
It’s only bipartisan when Labor rolls over and says give me a tummy rub
LOL!
Zoomster
Yes no path with Labor going for the LNP agenda. No spine from Labor to stand up and be counted.
This is worth a few moments on a weekend afternoon.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-31/the-blind-farmer-giving-camel-milk-a-shake/11461318
Always remembering that camels, like kangaroos, do less damage to the soil.
zoomster
says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 1:46 pm
Thanks guytaur and nath for your responses.
I look forward to seeing real action on these issues in fifty years or so.
I’m sure it will be worth the wait.
_______________
Yeah Yeah. Only Labor can address poverty, unless they make it worse, which they have, with your support. Congrats.
guytaur says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 1:48 pm
FredNK
You still don’t get it. You have no idea of why Labor legislated a carbon price. It’s why Labor is too scared to go it alone but has to wait for LNP approval.
It’s only bipartisan when Labor rolls over and says give me a tummy rub
Labor has tried hard for the last two decades to get a price on carbon with the Greens and Liberals doing their best to stop it by various means.
A price on carbon was the right way to cut demand. If it can’t be done it can’t be done. The Greens and Liberals have worked hard to make it undoable, the Liberal and Greens have won. The things that need to be done won’t be done that way.
Result; higher power prices because the coming online of renewable generators is not keeping up with the retirement of aging coal plant.
Now the Greens are working hard to make it impossible to deal with the fallout that will result from international coal demand falling. A demand that is falling because other countries are doing a much better job of removing fossil fuels from their economy.
We have missed the boat in developing technologies required to reduce the use of fossil fuels because of the Liberals and the Greens.
We are creating pressure on all our industry because we have screwed up the transition because of the Liberals and Greens.
It looks like the employment opportunities that will result from the change to a low carbon economy will not come when they are needed because of the Liberals and the Greens.
Basically in helping to stuff things up, the Greens are helping the Liberals with their ill conceived nonsense big time.
But worse the problem is still not fixed.
The solution is not to be found in dealing with the Greens, they are a bit player, the solution is to get the Liberals to realize they are screwing the planet and the Australian economy.
Have to laugh at Confessions linking to an article about Assange from the World Socialist Web Site. It is routine for them to criticise the Greens from the left which contradicts the meme the Greens are “extreme”.
Apparently no one but me does selective editing lol
From the article:
frednk @ #545 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 2:14 pm
And even before that, you have to convince Labor 🙁
FredNK
Your post proves why Labor keeps losing. It’s not only Turnbull that’s deluded.
Labor has to accept sanity left the Liberal party some time ago. Rolling over and agreeing with them won’t help. Have a Carbon Price and maybe the Liberals will wake up.
It won’t cost Labor to be sane.
Remember no fixed price it can’t be called a tax
Player One says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 2:18 pm
frednk @ #545 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 2:14 pm
The solution is not to be found in dealing with the Greens, they are a bit player, the solution is to get the Liberals to realize they are screwing the planet and the Australian economy.
And even before that, you have to convince Labor
Labor has just spent two decades trying to get a price on carbon and failing. The Greens and people like you are a large part of the why.
Critical water restrictions in southern Queensland see tradies banned from using water
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-31/water-situation-critical-in-warwick/11466776