So much trouble in the world

Upheaval in conservative politics in New South Wales over abortion law; a pickle for Labor in Tasmania over a vacancy in state parliament; and suggestions of a looming state by-election in Victoria.

In New South Wales:

A row over a bill to decriminalise abortion is prompting murmurings about Gladys Berejiklian’s leadership just five months after she led the Coalition to an impressive election victory, with tremors that are being felt federally. The bill was introduced by independent MP Alex Greenwich, but its sponsors included the Berejiklian government’s Health Minister, Brad Hazzard. It was headed last week for passage through both houses of parliament, before Berejiklian bowed to conservative outrage by pushing back the final vote in the upper house by nearly a month. Claiming credit for this concession is Barnaby Joyce, whose high-profile interventions have angered his state Nationals colleagues, most of whom support the bill (prompting Mark Latham, who now holds a crucial upper house vote as a member of One Nation, to tar the party with the cultural Marxist brush). Following suggestions the party room had discussed expelling him from the party, Joyce said he would go of his own accord if four of them publicly called for him to do so. It doesn’t appear that is going to happen, but if it did, the government would be reduced from 77 seats in the House of Representatives out of 151, costing it its absolute majority on the floor.

In Tasmania:

Labor MP Scott Bacon’s decision to end his state parliamentary career, citing family reasons, represents an unwelcome turn of events for an already understaffed state opposition, owing to the manner in which parliamentary vacancies are filled under Hare-Clark. This will involve a “recount” (as officially known, though “countback” is the generally preferred term for such procedures) of the votes that got Bacon elected to his seat in Denison (which is now called Clark), either as first or subsequent preferences. The procedure is open to any unsuccessful candidates from the previous election who care to nominate, among whom is Madeleine Ogilvie, a former incumbent who was defeated in 2018 – possibly because progressive sentiment had been alienated by her social conservatism.

The problem for Labor is that Ogilvie has since parted company with the party, to the extent of running as an independent for an upper house seat in May. If she wins the recount, and no reconciliation with the party is forthcoming, there will be nothing to stop her sitting as an independent, reducing Labor from ten seats to nine in a chamber of 25. As explained by Kevin Bonham, we can see from the 2018 results that this will produce a “first preference” count in which 33.1% of the vote goes to Madeleine Ogilvie and 28.4% to Tim Cox, a former ABC Radio presenter who ran unsuccessfully, and has confirmed he will nominate for the recount. More than half the remainder went to candidates who are not in contention because they’re already in parliament, so it will assuredly be one or the other.

In Victoria:

John Ferguson of The Australian reports the Liberals have been conducting internal polling for former party leader Matthew Guy’s seat of Bulleen, prompting speculation he will shortly quit parliament. The Liberals retained the seat with a 5.8% margin even amid the debacle of last November’s election, and the polling is “believed to show the Liberal brand holding up”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,112 comments on “So much trouble in the world”

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  4. lizzie

    I don’t think you read all my posts, or at least don’t understand them. I do NOT snipe about the Greens. I’m surprised that someone hasn’t accused me of being one myself.

    I read all your posts. Unlike others I don’t block anyone. I have said on many an occasion over the decade here I have agreed with every poster, even if only once.

    Funnily enough, I think you do not understand some of my posts.

    You complained about my sniping to which I responded.

    Or have I misunderstood and were you commenting about someone else.

    Though your comment about sniping did follow an earlier sarcastic comment about how industrious I have been dredging up a 2015 article about Labor

    The reason why would have been fairly obvious I would have thought in the context of my earlier cut and paste about Victorian Labor.

    I was going to add some comments re Labor factions along the lines of once an ally, until you’re not…..once an enemy, until you’re not….internal power politics about who is ‘punished’, permanently, temporarily, or not at all ….personal patronage required to climb the greasy pole…. much the same as what’s occurring in NSW Labor.

  6. Wave energy

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-29/carnegie-clean-energy-capital-raising-to-avoid-liquidation/11460640

    As it makes what could be a final roll of the dice for its survival, collapsed wave energy hopeful Carnegie Clean Energy is still not disclosing the performance of its most valuable asset — its CETO wave technology.

    If it does not raise the minimum amount of $5.5 million by next Wednesday, the former renewable energy darling is facing the likely outcome of liquidation.
    :::
    Carnegie has been developing its prized CETO wave energy technology for more than 15 years and has attracted tens of millions of taxpayer dollars from both federal and state governments to commercialise the technology.

  8. This is a far worse scandal than political donations. It penalises the poorest and least influential and sometimes drives them to death.

    Gavin Silbert QC @QcSilbert
    Centrelink robo-debt: Staff performance managed on debt targets, documents show. A disgusting abuse of power and a Minister who has no understanding of what goes on and lies as to a 7 year time frame on enforcement.

  9. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/adani-mine-would-be-unviable-without-44bn-in-subsidies-report-finds?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    So, Coalition improving thie financial managment skills then? All these subsidies for a handfull of jobs is probably better value than they got for the $55M they spent to unsucessfully resettle 3-4 refugees in Cambodia ??

    And surprised on the ALP donations thing in NSW? People seem to have completey wiped from thier minds Uncle Arfur See-N-Donors ripping off NSW via Sydney Water and the accusations of laundering donor mone through fed office and foundations, and Parakalia??

    Must be the attraction of fresh blood in the water over rotting corpses wot? 🙂

  10. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-29/queensland-department-holds-disabled-man-in-seclusion-illegally/11460534

    A man with an intellectual disability was “illegally” secluded for more than six years in a Queensland State Government facility, with the full knowledge of the department.
    :::
    At times staff at the facility called on police, who used dogs to control the man, known only as “Adrian”.
    :::
    Adrian has an intellectual and developmental disability and was physically and sexually abused as a child, both at home and by carers.
    :::
    The Ombudsman’s investigation found the FDS to be in breach of legislation “designed to safeguard the care, protection and rehabilitation of the vulnerable persons it accommodated” and that the service had failed its aims and objectives.

    It also found the service to be poorly run, with record-keeping “paper-based” and “incoherent”.

    His ongoing seclusion was authorised more than 18,000 times in what sources have told the ABC is a repeated and systemic breach of the law.

  11. OK, can someone tell me what I’m getting wrong here.

    As a Constitutional monarch in the British tradition, Elizabeth II has in practice only a few reserve powers when she disagrees with her Prime Minister, per the doctrine of Parliamentary supremacy over the Crown. However, this largely applies when dealing with a PM who commands a majority in the Commons, whether it’s by a single party or by a coalition of parties. Her Majesty’s options broaden when she is confronting a PM whose support from the Commons is uncertain, especially when said PM’s advice is to prorogue Parliament so as to thwart Parliament’s attempt to pass laws contrary to the PM’s wishes.

    Among Her Majesty’s options in such a position are: The option of summoning an alternative PM (1) and tasking them with attempting to form Government instead (2); the option of dissolving Parliament and hoping the resulting election returns a clearer majority; and the option of declining the PM’s advice to prorogue Parliament, forcing him to test his majority before returning to normal rules.

    What part of this am I getting wrong? And if I’m not getting anything wrong, why is Her Majesty declining to exercise any of those options as the PM blatantly tells Parliament – to which he is nominally accountable – to get stuffed?

    ***

    (1): i.e., Corbyn – or a Tory rebel.
    (2) Most unlikely to succeed; Corbyn is going to find it *very* hard to form Government.

  13. “Its worth Labor bringing up subsidies for cars over Adani. That mine is a hell of a leaner compared to South Australia’s car industry”

    And a tiny employer.

  15. C@t: I have a bone to pick with you, re one of your earlier replies to Rex around midday, vis:

    “and the now former NSW ALP General Secretary who has allegedly overseen a banned donation by a developer”

    It is clear to me – unless I’ve missed some new development this afternoon – that Murnain had nothing to do with the prohibited donation. In fact it appears that the subsequent revelation that it may have been prohibited came as somewhat of a major surprise to both Wang and her.

    No, she is culpable because she took some of the worst advice I’ve heard given by a lawyer and didn’t follow through on the allegation once raised. Only half a step removed from a Nixonian style cover up. That in turn reflects poorly on her judgment. Very poorly indeed.

    When one gets bad advice, then get better advice. Her political spidey sense should have told her that this was something that needed to be nipped in the bud.

    Other than that fuck up, all roads lead back to Jamie Clements on this one.

  17. Rex Douglas @ #1752 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 3:01 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1750 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:58 pm

    Mavis Davis @ #1747 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:52 pm

    RD:

    [‘It’s Jodi, not Jody.’]

    Does it really matter(?)

    Rex Douglas probably thinks it works as a stratagem for evading the point. 😀

    I’d like Jodi to show her mental toughness by rejecting the coal lobby and transitioning coal workers to good paying cleaner jobs.

    Jodi Mackay actually comes from the country and understands how important the mining of Coking Coal is to the area, but also, how we need to keep mining Thermal Coal until such time as a viable replacement for Coal-Fired Power Stations has been implemented. She also has a thorough knowledge of Climate Change and the effects it is having on the world.

    However, as has been explained to you here too many times to count, and which you continue to be wilfully obtuse about, if Australia stopped mining Coal tomorrow, there is such an abundance of supply available in the world that some other country would rush to plug the hole with their coal.

    So the approach needs to be sophisticated and multi-faceted, not simplistic and one-dimensional, as you advocate.

  18. @Player One

    I made a prediction some time back, that Australia could be the first nation in the world, to go from a first world to a third world nation.

  19. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1764 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 3:18 pm

    C@t: I have a bone to pick with you, re one of your earlier replies to Rex around midday, vis:

    “and the now former NSW ALP General Secretary who has allegedly overseen a banned donation by a developer”

    It is clear to me – unless I’ve missed some new development this afternoon – that Murnain had nothing to do with the prohibited donation. In fact it appears that the subsequent revelation that it may have been prohibited came as somewhat of a major surprise to both Wang and her.

    No, she is culpable because she took some of the worst advice I’ve heard given by a lawyer and didn’t follow through on the allegation once raised. Only half a step removed from a Nixonian style cover up. That in turn reflects poorly on her judgment. Very poorly indeed.

    When one gets back advice, get better advice. Her political spidey sense should have told her that this was something that needed to be nipped in the bud.

    Other than that fuck up, all roads lead back to Jamie Clements on this one.

    Agreed. I was talking in the recent past tense where the donation was allegedly swept under the carpet, fingers crossed and hope for the best.

  20. Matt

    Could the Queen have said no?

    Yes, she has the power to do so. But it’s not that straightforward.

    Normally, the Queen being asked to prorogue Parliament is a matter of procedure and has been a formality in the United Kingdom for more than a century.

    But given the situation with Brexit, the Queen’s decision to reject a Prime Minister’s request might have had more political ramifications.

    It could also trigger a constitutional crisis.

    So it was quite unlikely she would have denied the request.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-29/heres-how-boris-johnson-will-suspend-parliament-ahead-of-brexit/11458784

  21. There have been so many lies about how many jobs Adani would create. 10,000? Barnaby Joyce was touting 30,000 at one stage. One credible figure for the current scaled down version is 1,564 that emerged from court proceedings. Others say a few hundred or 800.

    Let’s say it’s 1,564, almost certainly an overstatement. For $44 billion in subsidies that would be 44,000,000,00 / 1564 = $28m per job.

    Let’s see, $44 billion over 30 years, about $1.5b per annum. We could employee several tens of thousand in Central Queenland on minimum wage to paint rocks white, if we could find enough rocks.

  22. C@tmomma @ #1765 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 3:22 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1752 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 3:01 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1750 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:58 pm

    Mavis Davis @ #1747 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:52 pm

    RD:

    [‘It’s Jodi, not Jody.’]

    Does it really matter(?)

    Rex Douglas probably thinks it works as a stratagem for evading the point. 😀

    I’d like Jodi to show her mental toughness by rejecting the coal lobby and transitioning coal workers to good paying cleaner jobs.

    Jodi Mackay actually comes from the country and understands how important the mining of Coking Coal is to the area, but also, how we need to keep mining Thermal Coal until such time as a viable replacement for Coal-Fired Power Stations has been implemented. She also has a thorough knowledge of Climate Change and the effects it is having on the world.

    However, as has been explained to you here too many times to count, and which you continue to be wilfully obtuse about, if Australia stopped mining Coal tomorrow, there is such an abundance of supply available in the world that some other country would rush to plug the hole with their coal.

    So the approach needs to be sophisticated and multi-faceted, not simplistic and one-dimensional, as you advocate.

    Seems like the simplistic and one-dimensional approach is for Govts to sit back and wait decades for the coal industry fade away, meanwhile…the planet cooks.

  24. C@tmomma @ #1767 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 3:22 pm

    However, as has been explained to you here too many times to count, and which you continue to be wilfully obtuse about, if Australia stopped mining Coal tomorrow, there is such an abundance of supply available in the world that some other country would rush to plug the hole with their coal.

    And out they trot, yet again.

    Sorry, C@t. It is not that I agree with Rex, it is just that this particular excuse for perpetuating thermal coal mining is not just lame, it is downright silly. If you took off your “Labor Policy = good!” hat for a moment, you might want to consider why countries buy Australian thermal coal – even countries that have local coal reserves of their own, and even though our coal has to be shipped halfway across the world to them 🙁

  27. A collapse in demand for Australian coal, I believe is coming soon than a lot of people expect. Especially of countries across the world increasingly adopt Green New Deal style policies to decarbonise their economies. Given coal is our biggest export, that is going to hit the economy hard.

  28. Seems like the simplistic and one-dimensional approach is for the Greens to wander in the electoral deserts from 1984, with a promised further 20 years of wandering from Di Natale, while sitting back and blaming everyone else.

    Meanwhile…the planet cooks.

    Pontius Pilate had nothing on the Greens.

  29. Let’s see, $44 billion over 30 years, about $1.5b per annum. We could employee several tens of thousand in Central Queenland on minimum wage to paint rocks white, if we could find enough rocks.

    How many Queenslanders does it take to change a light bulb paint a rock white?

  32. Player One @ #1773 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 3:30 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1767 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 3:22 pm

    However, as has been explained to you here too many times to count, and which you continue to be wilfully obtuse about, if Australia stopped mining Coal tomorrow, there is such an abundance of supply available in the world that some other country would rush to plug the hole with their coal.

    And out they trot, yet again.

    Sorry, C@t. It is not that I agree with Rex, it is just that this particular excuse for perpetuating thermal coal mining is not just lame, it is downright silly. If you took off your “Labor Policy = good!” hat for a moment, you might want to consider why countries buy Australian thermal coal – even countries that have local coal reserves of their own, and even though our coal has to be shipped halfway across the world to them 🙁

    No, I’m talking about Rex’s desire to have the industry shut down overnight. It’s not practical until replacement power generating assets are in place. And I’m mainly thinking about Australia here.

    It’s not what I personally would like, I’m just being realistic.

    Especially while we have a Coalition government in power federally for the next 3 years as well.

  34. @samanthamaiden
    ·
    24m
    This is a succinct explanation.

    Religious discrimination laws are not about freedom from discrimination, they are about improving the freedom of religious folk to discriminate & say rude things about gay people without being sued.

  35. Labor supporters attacking the Greens over climate change policy while their own Premier Adani is up there in The Police State doing everything she can to destroy the environment is the absolute height of hypocrisy.

  36. Matt says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 3:14 pm

    You are completely wrong because the PM’s advice is not to prorogue Parliament so as to thwart Parliament’s attempt to pass laws contrary to the PM’s wishes.

    The proroguement is for the preparation of the Queen’s Speech.

    From the BBC:

    “It’s normal for new governments to shut down Parliament in order to hold a Queen’s Speech.

    The length of time varies – in 2016 Parliament was closed for four working days, while in 2014 it was closed for 13 days.

    This year, if Parliament was suspended at the earliest proposed date of Monday, 9 September, it would be shut down for 25 working days before the new Queen’s Speech on 14 October.”

    As for your claims about alternative PMs – the Monarch has no indication that the current PM doesn’t have the confidence of the house and for the Monarch to act on an assumption that the current PM doesn’t have the confidence of the house without a successful No Confidence Motion would be a political act without precedence for a Monarch.

  37. Right, the subsidy is $4.4 billion, not $44b. I saw the number bandied about earlier and didn’t check it. Naturally I believe everything I read on PB.

    Too late to edit or delete my comment above, but why is Adani getting ANY subsidy? It was supposed to stand on its commercial merits. Do we have a Government of Coal Socialists? $4.4 billion for 1500 jobs in a destructive, dying industry (about $2.8 million per job) is hardly a good deal.

  38. It was sometimes said of Keating that he looked down on Australians.

    He appeared aloof but often showed a deep caring for people. He had help from a great speech writer but he had a hand in the writing and delivered it genuinely. And there were regular stump speeches that showed he could do it unaided.

  40. The position of British PM is a modern confection. It was only recognised ‘officially’ in the last 19th century (I think). Even today the PM’s actual constitutional position is ‘First Lord of the Treasury’ and its only by late custom that that office holder is a member of the Commons.

    With that in mind the Queen should have sought the advice of the real constitutional power in the UK – the Speaker of the Commons – before agreeing to the request of a PM that leads a minority government – especially given that this proroguation gambit is an obvious stunt to head off the fact that he has lost the confidence of the Commins on his ‘cunning plan’ to foist a no deal Brexit on a revolting (in every sense of the word) country as a done deal.

    She’s only had to make one decision that has really mattered for the sake of the country in the 65 years of her reign and she fucked that up. Off to the Tower for her, IMO

  43. Right, the subsidy is $4.4 billion, not $44b.

    I am guessing the “44” was due to constraints of decimal points in web addresses. The article showed pretty clearly 4.4.
    One reason why the headline should probably be included in the post.

  45. Those rent seekers have been littering our coast with rotting hulks for decades. Apparently the pollution that they have created is good pollution.

  47. “$4.4 billion for 1500 jobs in a destructive, dying industry (about $2.8 million per job) is hardly a good deal.”

    Yup…spending it on makework “painting rocks white” projects instead is actually not such a silly idea. 🙂

    Or………. more seriously, regional infrastructure and cleanup projects ?? You could pay people minimum wage for short term labor AND meet costs to feed, house and transport them for a project.

    FFS…just sooooooo many better ways to spend the $ . 🙁

  48. imacca says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 3:11 pm

    Put up or shut up – there have been no adverse findings despite years of relentless false allegations.

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