So much trouble in the world

Upheaval in conservative politics in New South Wales over abortion law; a pickle for Labor in Tasmania over a vacancy in state parliament; and suggestions of a looming state by-election in Victoria.

In New South Wales:

A row over a bill to decriminalise abortion is prompting murmurings about Gladys Berejiklian’s leadership just five months after she led the Coalition to an impressive election victory, with tremors that are being felt federally. The bill was introduced by independent MP Alex Greenwich, but its sponsors included the Berejiklian government’s Health Minister, Brad Hazzard. It was headed last week for passage through both houses of parliament, before Berejiklian bowed to conservative outrage by pushing back the final vote in the upper house by nearly a month. Claiming credit for this concession is Barnaby Joyce, whose high-profile interventions have angered his state Nationals colleagues, most of whom support the bill (prompting Mark Latham, who now holds a crucial upper house vote as a member of One Nation, to tar the party with the cultural Marxist brush). Following suggestions the party room had discussed expelling him from the party, Joyce said he would go of his own accord if four of them publicly called for him to do so. It doesn’t appear that is going to happen, but if it did, the government would be reduced from 77 seats in the House of Representatives out of 151, costing it its absolute majority on the floor.

In Tasmania:

Labor MP Scott Bacon’s decision to end his state parliamentary career, citing family reasons, represents an unwelcome turn of events for an already understaffed state opposition, owing to the manner in which parliamentary vacancies are filled under Hare-Clark. This will involve a “recount” (as officially known, though “countback” is the generally preferred term for such procedures) of the votes that got Bacon elected to his seat in Denison (which is now called Clark), either as first or subsequent preferences. The procedure is open to any unsuccessful candidates from the previous election who care to nominate, among whom is Madeleine Ogilvie, a former incumbent who was defeated in 2018 – possibly because progressive sentiment had been alienated by her social conservatism.

The problem for Labor is that Ogilvie has since parted company with the party, to the extent of running as an independent for an upper house seat in May. If she wins the recount, and no reconciliation with the party is forthcoming, there will be nothing to stop her sitting as an independent, reducing Labor from ten seats to nine in a chamber of 25. As explained by Kevin Bonham, we can see from the 2018 results that this will produce a “first preference” count in which 33.1% of the vote goes to Madeleine Ogilvie and 28.4% to Tim Cox, a former ABC Radio presenter who ran unsuccessfully, and has confirmed he will nominate for the recount. More than half the remainder went to candidates who are not in contention because they’re already in parliament, so it will assuredly be one or the other.

In Victoria:

John Ferguson of The Australian reports the Liberals have been conducting internal polling for former party leader Matthew Guy’s seat of Bulleen, prompting speculation he will shortly quit parliament. The Liberals retained the seat with a 5.8% margin even amid the debacle of last November’s election, and the polling is “believed to show the Liberal brand holding up”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,112 comments on “So much trouble in the world”

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  1. @Bucephalus

    Donald Trump has been inciting his supporters to violence for more than three years now. Plus you now have this QAnon conspiracy theory spreading like wildfire through the MAGA movement.

  2. It will be interesting to see at what stage Albanese decides enough is enough and intervenes in his home state branch.

    There is no need for him to wait and it would be consistent with his intervention into what was a Victorian branch matter re Setka.

    I will be the first to acknowledge Albanese if he does.

    It will also be interesting to see how long it takes Albanese to demand the expulsion of the now suspended NSW state secretary from the labor party due to her not upholding “ labor values “.

    Good enough for Setka good enough for Murnain.

    I will be the first to acknowledge Albanese if he does.

  3. doyley @ #1700 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 1:01 pm

    It will be interesting to see at what stage Albanese decides enough is enough and intervenes in his home state branch.

    There is no need for him to wait and it would be consistent with his intervention into what was a Victorian branch matter re Setka.

    I will be the first to acknowledge Albanese if he does.

    It will also be interesting to see how long it takes Albanese to demand the expulsion of the now suspended NSW state secretary from the labor party due to her not upholding “ labor values “.

    Good enough for Setka good enough for Murnain.

    I will be the first to acknowledge Albanese if he does.

    Surely Murnain is not going to be the only scapegoat …?

  4. doyley,
    You’re comparing apples with oranges at the moment. Once criminal charges have been laid, different question. Anthony Albanese will have cause to move against Kaila Murnain. However, I understand your overweening desire to create some sort of moral equivalence between a male union boss member of the Labor Party who has admitted his guilt and been convicted in a court of law already for terrorising his wife and the now former NSW ALP General Secretary who has allegedly overseen a banned donation by a developer. It’s a sad indictment of your values, but there you have it. 😐

  5. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 1:11 pm

    Allegedly?

    She just admitted to covering it up and had dropped the ALP Lawyers and Dastyari under a D9.

  6. cat,

    Albanese demanded Setka be expelled from the labor party on the basis of accusations printed in the Age sourced from unnamed sources. At the time Albanese made it clear his decision did not take into account the pending court verdict re Setka. In simple words nothing to do with the criminal charges against Setka and all to do with Setka not upholding “ labor value. “

    It would be consistent for Albanese to now intervene against Murnain irrespective of any criminal or other charges yet to be laid.

    Albanese jumped in against Setka and set the precedent. Uphold “ labor values “ or otherwise be expelled.

    What was good enough for Setka should be good enough for Murnain. She, in her own words admitted she knew donations were made illegally to the party by a banned donar and did nothing. She turned a blind eye and walked away. If that is not going against “ labor values “ what is ?

  7. It seems as if Murnain had no idea the donation was coming and like any soldier did her best to cover up the bigwigs failure to organise the donation properly. What did Shorten and Foley know about the incoming cash?

  8. C@tmomma @ #1706 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    doyley,
    You’re comparing apples with oranges at the moment. Once criminal charges have been laid, different question. Anthony Albanese will have cause to move against Kaila Murnain. However, I understand your overweening desire to create some sort of moral equivalence between a male union boss member of the Labor Party who has admitted his guilt and been convicted in a court of law already for terrorising his wife and the now former NSW ALP General Secretary who has allegedly overseen a banned donation by a developer. It’s a sad indictment of your values, but there you have it. 😐

    I’ve yet to hear back from doyley if he has any connection to the CFMMEU …?

  9. Mavis Davis says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 1:11 pm

    Thanks for that.

    s 772 of the FWA is the key in my opinion but I’m not a lawyer and look forward to the courts clarifying it.

  10. Lawrence O’Donnell Apologizes for Russian Oligarchs Story on Trump: ‘I Was Wrong’ to Air It

    “Last night on this show I discussed information that wasn’t ready for reporting,” O’Donnell said at the top of The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell on Wednesday. “I repeated statements a single source told me about the president’s finances and loan documents with Deutsche Bank— saying ‘if true’ as I discussed the information was not good enough.”

    Addressing the letter from the president’s attorneys, O’Donnell noted that in response to their demands he is “retracting the story.”

    “We don’t know whether the information is inaccurate,” the MSNBC host glumly stated. “But the fact is, we do know it wasn’t ready for broadcast, and for that, I apologize.”

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/msnbcs-lawrence-odonnell-apologizes-for-trump-russian-oligarchs-story-i-was-wrong-to-air-it?via=twitter_page

  11. To balance out Lawrence O’Donnell’s reporting error on misleading information :

    President Trump has made 12,019 false or misleading claims over 928 days

    President Trump’s proclivity for spouting exaggerated numbers, unwarranted boasts and outright falsehoods has continued at a remarkable pace. As of Aug. 5, his 928th day in office, he had made 12,019 false or misleading claims, according to the Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement the president has uttered.

    Trump crossed the 10,000 mark on April 26, and he has been averaging about 20 fishy claims a day since then. From the start of his presidency, he has averaged about 13 such claims a day.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/12/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-over-days/

  12. UrbanWronski
    Crony capitalism meets climate change stupidity. $44bn???

    Australian governments will give $4.4bn in effective subsidies to Adani’s Carmichael coal project, which would otherwise be “unbankable and unviable”, a new analysis has found.

    The report, by the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, concluded that the project would benefit from several Australian taxpayer–funded arrangements – including subsidies, favourable deals and tax concessions – over its 30-year project life.

    It said the project would be further supported by public handouts, tax breaks and special treatment provided to Adani Power, the proposed end-user of the thermal coal in India.

    “If these subsidies were not being provided, Adani’s Carmichael thermal coal mine would be unbankable and unviable,” the report said.

    “The subsidies have been provided in an effort to get Adani’s thermal coal mine up and operating for the sake of a handful of jobs and a bag of royalties, payable in a decade or so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/adani-mine-would-be-unviable-without-44bn-in-subsidies-report-finds?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  13. lizzie @ #1718 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 11:45 am

    UrbanWronski
    Crony capitalism meets climate change stupidity. $44bn???

    Australian governments will give $4.4bn in effective subsidies to Adani’s Carmichael coal project, which would otherwise be “unbankable and unviable”, a new analysis has found.

    The report, by the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, concluded that the project would benefit from several Australian taxpayer–funded arrangements – including subsidies, favourable deals and tax concessions – over its 30-year project life.

    It said the project would be further supported by public handouts, tax breaks and special treatment provided to Adani Power, the proposed end-user of the thermal coal in India.

    “If these subsidies were not being provided, Adani’s Carmichael thermal coal mine would be unbankable and unviable,” the report said.

    “The subsidies have been provided in an effort to get Adani’s thermal coal mine up and operating for the sake of a handful of jobs and a bag of royalties, payable in a decade or so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/adani-mine-would-be-unviable-without-44bn-in-subsidies-report-finds?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    But, but, but, …. it will create “about” 100 jobs. Bargain.

    {end sarcasm}

  14. Mavis Davis@1.07 pm:

    Thank you for that.
    I actually am aware of the basic formalities etc re death of the monarch, (and am old enough to remember when George VI died! ). My original, poorly worded speculation was partly because I was wondering, in light of the mood in the UK re Boris’s “smart” move, whether, should there be a significant royal death almost immediately before or on 14th October, what reaction there might be both inside and outside Parliament and how it might manifest itself. Was wondering if I should dig out my old Uni notes on the Stuarts ready for Charles’entry into Parliament. !!
    Any way, I’ll leave all that to the Poms to sort out if it happens and go back to lurking.
    Cheers.

  15. I have been following the government’s proposed legislation to ban cash transactions over $10,000. So far One Nation and Bob Katter are going to oppose it.

    I believe the legislation is going to pass parliament since Labor has said it will support the legislation.

  16. Political Tragic @politicaltragic
    ·
    57m
    Stoney silence from msm of course. Morning @ABC salivating over Labor’s donation woes even tho the rules had changed after this occurred. Libs were accepting more from same donor.

  17. lizzie

    I don’t criticise the Greens, as so many others do, but still get annoyed at her continual sniping.

    And yet, I get accused 24/7 of cutting and posting. And yet, I get accused 24/7 of never posting my opinions.

    Can’t have it both way

    And way to go selectively sniping about me, which you do periodically, and no comment about the egregious comments directed my way or the 24/7 sniping about the Greens.

  18. pegasus

    I don’t think you read all my posts, or at least don’t understand them. I do NOT snipe about the Greens. I’m surprised that someone hasn’t accused me of being one myself. 🙂

  19. Its worth Labor bringing up subsidies for cars over Adani. That mine is a hell of a leaner compared to South Australia’s car industry

  20. Eddy Jokovich

    Someone in Labor really hates Kaila Murnain and Jody McKay, but it’s not about the $100K donation, it’s stupid Labor factions run by men that are flexing their weight. The same factions that got Emma Husar. They just don’t like women. This might get really ugly. #auspol #nswpol

  21. Edit: missing decimal point?

    Made this point(?) with Barney a few days ago (which he didn’t get for some reason), but the decimal point wouldn’t work in a URL.

  22. lizzie @ #1726 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:01 pm

    Political Tragic @politicaltragic
    ·
    57m
    Stoney silence from msm of course. Morning @ABC salivating over Labor’s donation woes even tho the rules had changed after this occurred. Libs were accepting more from same donor.

    I understand there is an element of the fact that it’s Labor under the spotlight here, so the media have been given licence to go to town on them, even though there is likely a similar scenario which pertains to the Liberal Party and Huang. However, as they didn’t have rules about not accepting donations from developers at the time he was donating large amounts to both parties they are likely in the clear.

  23. Stephen Spencer @sspencer_63
    1h
    Replying to @WilkieMP

    Please don’t make things up Andrew. As you are well aware Labor took a comprehensive, transparent and independent Commonwealth National Integrity Commission to the election. It’s the Liberals and the Liberals alone which oppose this.

  24. Zoidlord @ #1732 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:24 pm

    Eddy Jokovich

    Someone in Labor really hates Kaila Murnain and Jody McKay, but it’s not about the $100K donation, it’s stupid Labor factions run by men that are flexing their weight. The same factions that got Emma Husar. They just don’t like women. This might get really ugly. #auspol #nswpol

    Emma was managed out by the dark elements in ruthless fashion and kicked to the kerb by Labor partisans.

  25. Rex Douglas @ #1738 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:33 pm

    Zoidlord @ #1732 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:24 pm

    Eddy Jokovich

    Someone in Labor really hates Kaila Murnain and Jody McKay, but it’s not about the $100K donation, it’s stupid Labor factions run by men that are flexing their weight. The same factions that got Emma Husar. They just don’t like women. This might get really ugly. #auspol #nswpol

    Emma was managed out by the dark elements in ruthless fashion and kicked to the kerb by Labor partisans.

    And you obviously have no idea wrt the mental toughness of Jody Mackay. Neither does Eddy Jokovich it seems. Sad that both he and you could fall for such a simplistic analysis.

  26. @MJBiercuk
    ·
    1m
    And the govt is currently trying to limit scientific collaborations due to fear of #foreigninfluence?

    Money talks, and in academia, we don’t have much.

    This investigation is making clear foreign influence is occurring at the highest levels of business & government. #auspol

  27. C@tmomma @ #1739 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:42 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1738 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:33 pm

    Zoidlord @ #1732 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 2:24 pm

    Eddy Jokovich

    Someone in Labor really hates Kaila Murnain and Jody McKay, but it’s not about the $100K donation, it’s stupid Labor factions run by men that are flexing their weight. The same factions that got Emma Husar. They just don’t like women. This might get really ugly. #auspol #nswpol

    Emma was managed out by the dark elements in ruthless fashion and kicked to the kerb by Labor partisans.

    And you obviously have no idea wrt the mental toughness of Jody Mackay. Neither does Eddy Jokovich it seems. Sad that both he and you could fall for such a simplistic analysis.

    It’s Jodi, not Jody.

  28. That mine is a hell of a leaner compared to South Australia’s car industry

    Those subsidies are similar to all mines.

    We are like third world countries in succumbing to the resource curse.

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