Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law

Higher disapproval ratings for both leaders in the latest Essential poll, which also records lukewarm feelings towards the United States and cooler ones for China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll again comes up empty on voting intention, but it does offer the pollster’s third set of leadership ratings since the election. As with Newspoll, these record a drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval rating, owing to a three point rise in disapproval to 37%, while his approval holds steady at 48%. However, Essential parts company with Newspoll in finding Anthony Albanese up on disapproval as well, by five points to 29%, with approval down one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 44-26 to 44-28.

Further questions suggest the public leans positive on most aspects of the “influence of the United States of America” (defence, trade, cultural and business), excepting a neutral result (42% positive, 40% negative) for influence on Australian politics. The same exercise for China finds positive results for trade, neutral results for culture and business, and negative ones for defence and politics. Asked which of the two we would most benefit from strengthening ties with, 38% of respondents favoured the US and 28% China.

The small sample of respondents from New South Wales were also asked about the proposed removal of abortion from the criminal code, which was supported by an overwhelming 71% compared with 17% opposed. The poll has a sample of 1096 and was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Note also the post below this one, being the latest Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,826 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law”

  1. Diogenes @ #400 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 8:09 pm

    C@t
    93% of Sanders’ songs were by males.
    I couldn’t vote for any of them based on their playlists.

    They were quite diverse though, weren’t they? It surprised me. I thought they’d pretty much stick to the standards. Eye of the Tiger, Born In the USA, that sort of thing. Cory Booker’s was interesting, all around the theme of ‘love’.

  2. C@t:

    She’s still a convicted Australian criminal, and from memory had our media up in arms of outrage at her guilty conviction and sentencing.

    I remember at the time the workplace being abuzz with outrage at this. Not so Pell, and in fact his appeal dismissal hasn’t even rated a mention at work.

  3. Confessions @ #404 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 6:13 pm

    C@t:

    She’s still a convicted Australian criminal, and from memory had our media up in arms of outrage at her guilty conviction and sentencing.

    I remember at the time the workplace being abuzz with outrage at this. Not so Pell, and in fact his appeal dismissal hasn’t even rated a mention at work.

    I couldn’t help wonder at the time whether the outrage was because she was (somewhat) beautiful, or at least photogenic. If she’d had a face like a dropped pie I wonder if people would’ve given a toss about her, and would’ve said she could rot in jail.

  4. The attempted reclamation of Pell’s standing has begun in earnest. First, Comensoli claims it must be a case of mistaken identity. Second, there’s Bolt who basically thinks that the some 220 pages of Weinberg J’s dissenting judgment is more compelling than that of the the majority’s, making reference to his former position as the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions. He then refers to the Maxwell, P as the former head of Liberty Victoria, the implication being that he must be a Left-leaning judge. And, Ferguson, CJ, a former corporate lawyer, impliedly knows little of criminal law. This is an attempt by the Right to politicise the judiciary, aping the US polity, where, if one reads some of the judgments of the Supreme Court, the Left/Right dichotomy is rarely at ease, unlike our High Court, save for the “Great Dissenter” Dyson Heydon, who headed up the TURC.

    These are the facts. Police thought the evidence of the complainant was such that they proceeded to charge Pell. The Office of Public Prosecutions, pursuant to its prosecutorial guidelines, thought the evidence against Pell was more than probative to indict him. The first trial resulted in a hung jury; the second, a conviction. The Court of Appeal confirmed the second jury’s verdict. Moreover, none of the armchair experts were in the court to witness the veracity of the complainant’s evidence.

    Convicted paedophile Pell’s last chance to redeem himself now lies with an application for special leave to the High Court, which is a very high barrier to get over, particularly where an appellant relies on the wrongfulness of a jury verdict, witness some of the cases where the Victorian Court of Appeal has been found to err apropos of quashing same. Justice is best served by allowing an appellant to exhaust his/her avenues of appeal, in the absence of scuttlebutt by those who should know better.

  5. I couldn’t help wonder at the time whether the outrage was because she was (somewhat) beautiful, or at least photogenic. If she’d had a face like a dropped pie I wonder if people would’ve given a toss about her, and would’ve said she could rot in jail.

    Or if she hailed from a culturally diverse background. The media wasn’t so quick to highlight the plight of Australians like that guy executed in Singapore with the Asian name.

  6. Confessions @ #408 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 6:23 pm

    I couldn’t help wonder at the time whether the outrage was because she was (somewhat) beautiful, or at least photogenic. If she’d had a face like a dropped pie I wonder if people would’ve given a toss about her, and would’ve said she could rot in jail.

    Or if she hailed from a culturally diverse background. The media wasn’t so quick to highlight the plight of Australians like that guy executed in Singapore with the Asian name.

    Nor the female member of the Bali Nine who was less photogenic than Corby.

  7. Coorey tonight (I could access headline only):

    NSW abortion battle a front line in Coalition’s faction wars

    An ugly brawl to replace Gladys Berejiklian as NSW Premier could drag on the federal government as well.

    Phillip CooreyPolitical Editor
    Aug 22, 2019 — 8.00pm

    About a week and half ago, Barnaby Joyce texted both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Nationals leader Michael McCormack.

    He asked both, in their capacity as citizens of NSW, to step in and help stop the legislation before the state’s Parliament that would decriminalise abortion.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/nsw-abortion-battle-a-front-line-in-coalition-s-faction-wars-20190822-p52jk4

  8. Barnaby Joyce has said he will quit the National’s Party if members of his party publicly declare they have lost faith in him.

    Mr Joyce told 7 News that he will resign from his position and sit on the crossbench if at least four members of the state Nationals make public statements saying they no longer support him.

    This comes after fellow members of the NSW Nationals reportedly spoke about expelling him from the party for his involvement in the campaign to stop abortion laws being passed in the state.

    As a federal MP, Mr Joyce has no vote on the Reproductive Health Care Reform Bill which is before the NSW parliament, but that hasn’t stopped him making his stance well and truly known.

    Mr Joyce gave firey speech at an anti-abortion rally near NSW parliament this week, claiming the abortion bill that has been put to parliament “is not a reflection of a civilised society”.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/barnaby-joyce-threatens-to-quit-the-nationals-party/news-story/4fac8fe39d20b1b555e77d8512063d31

  9. C@tmomma
    says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 8:10 pm
    DanG and poroti despise us Labor supporters on this blog so much they keep coming back day after day.
    _________________
    The inevitable schism in the PB Labor cohort after the fallout from the election. The fanatics repel the sane members.

    This should be the title of the next volume in the history of PB:

    Chapter XXVII: the ALP fanatics repel the sane.

    following on from Chapter XXVI: the Rise of nath

  10. Jeez this blog has become a nasty cesspit of anti-green bullying. Before it was an unpleasant distraction, now it conpletely dominates all discussions. Just a bunch of bitter and twisted labor partisans who simply cannot accept labor’s responsibility for their own defeat. So they lash out at the greens. Pathetic.

    Im with those two posters who have been convinced by this blog that labor is no longer the party to vote for.

    Sad.

  11. Big A Adrian @ #414 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 8:33 pm

    Jeez this blog has become a nasty cesspit of anti-green bullying. Before it was an unpleasant distraction, now it conpletely dominates all discussions. Just a bunch of bitter and twisted labor partisans who simply cannot accept labor’s responsibility for their own defeat. So they lash out at the greens. Pathetic.

    Im with those two posters who have been convinced by this blog that labor is no longer the party to vote for.

    Sad.

    Don’t let the fly screen door hit you on the arse on the way out.

  12. You are a pain nath, but i appreciate full well that you are merely an inevitable consequence of the increasingly unhinged antics of the increasingly domimant labor partisans here.

  13. You know what’s sad, Big A Adrian? The fact that The Greens’ commenters on this blog barely drew breath after Labor lost the election before they continued their constant carping at Labor.

    So, go ahead, give us your one-sided opinion that makes no mention of that. Says more about you than it does about us.

  14. Holden Hillbilly @ #5198 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 8:30 pm

    Barnaby Joyce has said he will quit the National’s Party if members of his party publicly declare they have lost faith in him.

    Mr Joyce told 7 News that he will resign from his position and sit on the crossbench if at least four members of the state Nationals make public statements saying they no longer support him.

    This comes after fellow members of the NSW Nationals reportedly spoke about expelling him from the party for his involvement in the campaign to stop abortion laws being passed in the state.

    As a federal MP, Mr Joyce has no vote on the Reproductive Health Care Reform Bill which is before the NSW parliament, but that hasn’t stopped him making his stance well and truly known.

    Mr Joyce gave firey speech at an anti-abortion rally near NSW parliament this week, claiming the abortion bill that has been put to parliament “is not a reflection of a civilised society”.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/barnaby-joyce-threatens-to-quit-the-nationals-party/news-story/4fac8fe39d20b1b555e77d8512063d31

    The Beetrooter wants an auto-da-fe. He may get it.

  15. “Don’t let the fly screen door hit you on the arse on the way out.”

    I cant really describe my frustration when i come here seeking intelligent and serious debate and analysis, only to find myself scrolling endlessly through increasingly shrill trolling from labor hacks, seemingly hell bent on venting their frustration over their election loss on a couple of the most inoffensive contributors imaginable.

  16. Greensborough Growler
    says:
    How are they hanging, Lars?
    _____________________
    Oddly enough, George Pell is being asked this same question in prison right now.

  17. Pell will not win a High Court appeal. He may not even get one. If anyone had made a serious error in law, it would have been apparent by now. He is toast.

  18. Barnaby Joyce has said he will quit the National’s Party if members of his party publicly declare they have lost faith in him.

    Mr Joyce told 7 News that he will resign from his position and sit on the crossbench if at least four members of the state Nationals make public statements saying they no longer support him.

    Why is 4 the magic number?

    And really, he’s not going anywhere lest he be voted out of New England at the next election.

  19. I am shocked about the 250 ish very old Djap Wurrung trees that will get bowled as part of a highway realignment in Victoria. Having been involved in a realignment of a major highway in a different state where the new alignment was designed to avoid one single tree of cultural significance (and another one that got shelved because of the environmental impact), this incident appears to have been created by a lack of foresight by the design team or early and clear direction from above to ignore environmental and cultural considerations.

  20. I have been railing against the unhinged element on here for some time. So it’s not just Greens fighting the good fight in that regard.

  21. clem attlee
    says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 8:41 pm
    Pell will not win a High Court appeal. He may not even get one. If anyone had made a serious error in law, it would have been apparent by now. He is toast.
    ________________________
    No, he’s going to Ararat, where they keep paedophiles, informants and former police.

  22. Big A Adrian @ #421 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 8:40 pm

    “Don’t let the fly screen door hit you on the arse on the way out.”

    I cant really describe my frustration when i come here seeking intelligent and serious debate and analysis, only to find myself scrolling endlessly through increasingly shrill trolling from labor hacks, seemingly hell bent on venting their frustration over their election loss on a couple of the most inoffensive contributors imaginable.

    You over estimate your capacity for deception.

    Most see you as just another whingeing Greens hack seeking relevance.

    Yawn.

  23. Whenever L’arse makes an appearance, I think of this Psalm..

    Psalm 119:1-176 ESV /

    Blessed are those whose way is blameless, who walk in the law of the Lord! Blessed are those who keep his testimonies, who seek him with their whole heart, who also do no wrong, but walk in his ways! You have commanded your precepts to be kept diligently. Oh that my ways may be steadfast in keeping your statutes! …

  24. “So, go ahead, give us your one-sided opinion that makes no mention of that. Says more about you than it does about us.”

    You are a troll and a bully cat, and many people have pointed it out to you. That you try and portray peg and rex as the “carping” trolls is beyond absurd. You clearly have an unhealthy obsession with peg. Before it may have been dismissed as an amusing quirk, but its gone way beyond a joke now. Especially now that every thread is now dominated by the rantings of you and the other parrisans. There simply isnt the diversity of voices here that there used to be. Small wonder then that we get such shrill reactions the few times voices are raised contrary to the party line.

    Unless William steps in, this blog will be 100% a labor party echo chamber, and dissenters will be ruthlessly hounded out.

  25. nath @ #413 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 6:31 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 8:10 pm
    DanG and poroti despise us Labor supporters on this blog so much they keep coming back day after day.
    _________________
    The inevitable schism in the PB Labor cohort after the fallout from the election. The fanatics repel the sane members.

    This should be the title of the next volume in the history of PB:

    Chapter XXVII: the ALP fanatics repel the sane.

    following on from Chapter XXVI: the Rise of nath

    There goes c@t firm in her belief that this blog belongs to her and the other passive authoritarian Labor supporters. What she doesn’t get is there are many reasons why people come here. I enjoy reading posts from the posters you described as sane. That’s what attracts me, and keeps me coming back. There are also off topic posts from members who have expertise in fields that I have no involvement in, and so learn things I would never have done so.

    If Mr Bowe has a problem with either myself or poroti posting here he will let us know in no uncertain terms how welcome we are. To date I can’t recall any comments from Mr Bowe regarding either of our presences on his site. I’ve lost count of the number of times he’s encouraged c@t to go forth and multiply though.

    Even more ironic is the fact she promised to abandon this site altogether at least once, but was back within a day. Obviously a woman of conviction, who stands firmly behind her principles (unless the Labor party tells her to abandon them).

  26. Big A Adrian @ #431 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 8:50 pm

    “So, go ahead, give us your one-sided opinion that makes no mention of that. Says more about you than it does about us.”

    You are a troll and a bully cat, and many people have pointed it out to you. That you try and portray peg and rex as the “carping” trolls is beyond absurd. You clearly have an unhealthy obsession with peg. Before it may have been dismissed as an amusing quirk, but its gone way beyond a joke now. Especially now that every thread is now dominated by the rantings of you and the other parrisans. There simply isnt the diversity of voices here that there used to be. Small wonder then that we get such shrill reactions the few times voices are raised contrary to the party line.

    Unless William steps in, this blog will be 100% a labor party echo chamber, and dissenters will be ruthlessly hounded out.

    We get plenty of whingers that can’t stand alternative points of view.

    Perhaps you should cull yourself in protest.

  27. Dan Gulberry
    says:
    There goes c@t firm in her belief that this blog belongs to her and the other passive authoritarian Labor supporters. What she doesn’t get is there are many reasons why people come here. I enjoy reading posts from the posters you described as sane.
    _____________________________
    I agree. poroti is a fine contributor, a person who states his case but has a good sense of humour and is far from the fanatics that have temporarily (I hope), driven him/her away.

  28. Conjecture about Trump’s mental state is moving into the mainstream media. From CNN:

    Trump is either trolling everyone or thinks he’s like a god
    Analysis by Zachary B. Wolf, CNN

    There’s been a change in President Donald Trump. He used to say he had accomplished more than any other President, a debatable claim. But now he’s using messianic language about himself.

    “I’m the chosen one,” he said Wednesday about what he claims is a singular, and still only hoped-for, trade deal with China.

    That was after he quoted a conspiracy theorist who described him, literally, as being like the King of Israel and said Jews “love him like the second coming of God” – — also known as the Messiah.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/21/politics/erratic-trump-god-complex/index.html

  29. William Bowe @ #435 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 8:57 pm

    I’m going to start deleting comments if they aren’t any good.

    Wouldn’t you just be making a rod for your own back? If you slacken off and let a comment stand because you are busy elsewhere or can’t keep up (or just can’t be bothered), it will be assumed that you are implicitly endorsing it.

    How about a yellow card/red card system? You get one yellow card (i.e. a warning), then a red card – which means you’re sent off the pitch for the duration of the current thread.

  30. Trump’s love in with Kim Jong un is having real world repercussions elsewhere.

    South Korea scrapped an agreement to share military intelligence with Japan on Thursday, dramatically escalating the stakes in the U.S. allies’ dispute over trade and historical grievances.

    The decision is sure to be met with concern in the United States, which views intelligence sharing between the allies over North Korea as critical.

    Kim You-geun of the National Security Council in Seoul said Japan’s decision to drop South Korea from a list of trusted trading partners earlier this month, citing security issues, “caused a grave change to the security cooperation between the two countries.”

    “Given such circumstances, our government has decided that maintaining this agreement set for the sake of exchanging sensitive military information does not fit our national interest,” Kim told a news conference.

    The pact, known as the General Security of Military Information Agreement, was signed in 2016 in the face of a growing threat from North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/south-korea-axes-pact-to-share-military-intelligence-with-japan/2019/08/22/fe57061c-c4be-11e9-8bf7-cde2d9e09055_story.html

  31. Player One @ #444 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 7:38 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #443 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 9:38 pm

    Player One @ #440 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 7:11 pm

    You get one yellow card (i.e. a warning), then a red card – which means you’re sent off the pitch for the duration of the current thread.

    What about repeat offenders?

    Banned forever, not just the current thread.

    I figured that. What my question should’ve been was, “How many red cards can one accumulate before the lifetime ban occurs?” 2? 3? 4? 5? Or should it be left to the judge’s discretion? Can the lifetime ban be enforced for a particularly egregious offence (such as spreading 9/11 conspiracy theories) on the 1st red card? And so on.

    It’s an interesting idea although as always the owner of the site will do what he deems best.

  32. Morrison has successfully dumbed down government with the majority of Australians not aware that Morrison is a PM.
    Most probably aren’t aware that we have a PM nor which political group he is part of. Parliament doesn’t resume for weeks.
    Unless something erupts with/between the world’s major economies, Morrison remains safely hidden from view.
    With China having Xi as president for life and Trump the chosen one, Morrison may well be leader of the hidden kingdom.
    PB will evolve to be become a successful realty show, appealing to the “white fright” voting public intent on ignoring climate change, fossil fuels and elections.
    The allocation and controversy surrounding the relative merits of yellow and red cards will hold the voting public spellbound.

  33. If anyone gets banned, they can console themselves with this verse..

    Luke 8:14 ESV

    And as for what fell among the thorns, they are those who hear, but as they go on their way they are choked by the cares and riches and pleasures of life, and their fruit does not mature.

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