Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law

Higher disapproval ratings for both leaders in the latest Essential poll, which also records lukewarm feelings towards the United States and cooler ones for China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll again comes up empty on voting intention, but it does offer the pollster’s third set of leadership ratings since the election. As with Newspoll, these record a drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval rating, owing to a three point rise in disapproval to 37%, while his approval holds steady at 48%. However, Essential parts company with Newspoll in finding Anthony Albanese up on disapproval as well, by five points to 29%, with approval down one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 44-26 to 44-28.

Further questions suggest the public leans positive on most aspects of the “influence of the United States of America” (defence, trade, cultural and business), excepting a neutral result (42% positive, 40% negative) for influence on Australian politics. The same exercise for China finds positive results for trade, neutral results for culture and business, and negative ones for defence and politics. Asked which of the two we would most benefit from strengthening ties with, 38% of respondents favoured the US and 28% China.

The small sample of respondents from New South Wales were also asked about the proposed removal of abortion from the criminal code, which was supported by an overwhelming 71% compared with 17% opposed. The poll has a sample of 1096 and was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Note also the post below this one, being the latest Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,826 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law”

  1. AE

    Yes. That’s why the Amazon is the last bastion. Pointing out how bad we have been and still are doesn’t help much. Just confirms how there has been no opposition.

    Being fair Latham lost an election to Howard proving it.

    The CFMEU could be an existential threat to humanity.
    Money over life.

  2. OMG how did I miss this?! What a hoot.

    A terrified Pauline Hanson got stuck while climbing Uluru in protest at the decision to stop visitors ascending the rock.

    The One Nation leader has been a vocal critic of the move to prevent people from climbing the famous rock and on Thursday defiantly attempted to scale it.

    But in new footage of her effort, the politician struggled to make her way up the monolith in the Northern Territory and complained she could not get down.

    ‘Seriously, I cannot get down here. My boots are that b—-y old,’ she said as she shuffled along the rock in a preview for an A Current Affair segment on Monday night.

    The senator is reported to have only made it 40 metres up the rock before turning back.

    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/i-cannot-get-down-terrified-pauline-hanson-gets-stuck-on-uluru-while-climbing-the-rock-in-protest-before-tourists-are-banned-from-scaling-it/ar-AAGet4n

  3. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1400 Sunday, August 25th, 2019 – 10:52 am

    But hey, ‘reality’ ends at the border between Alexandria and Rosebery, right?

    Reality ends at the point where selling coal to other countries becomes a good idea simply because they want to buy it. Or if not reality, then certainly any sense of ethics and any worldview that doesn’t have “let’s get some money and who cares how” as its fundamental motivation.

  4. guytaur says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 10:46 am

    As Labor abandons the environment for their donors the climate crisis heats up. We know the closing down of existing mines and demands to stop exports will soon be reality.

    All those climate models assuming the Amazon would still be the lungs of the earth now redundant

    Well the Greens are off fighting for dying gum trees and complaining that wind mills and transmission towers are an eye sore. Did the green pinch wind mills are an eye sore from the Liberals or did the Liberal pinch it from the Greens.

  5. guytaur says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 10:46 am

    As Labor abandons the environment for their donors the climate crisis heats up. We know the closing down of existing mines and demands to stop exports will soon be reality.

    When will the Lib-kin start to pref the Lib-Libs? You know you want to.

  6. Confessions
    I was involved in a rescue on the first 40 meters.
    The need for the rescue was 100% psychological.
    We strapped a catatonic lass into a stretcher and belayed the stretcher to ground level whereat she got off the stretcher, walked to her car and drove off.
    Never said a single word from woe to go.

  7. FredNK

    The Greens fully supported Labor with the Tesla Battery. The fact Stutchbury still feels he can get away with his baseload BS after that is why Labor loses elections.

    Labor can’t sell success.
    That battery stabilised the Grid. Prevented blackouts around the country caused by breaking coal plants at end of use by date.

  8. It is astounding the Greens done get a very simple concept; there is no shortage of potential suppliers of coal.

    How is this issue going to be fixed when the Greens can’t grasp simple concepts and chase goals which leave a large portion of the population with a very valid view they don’t care about how the transition is going t be managed.

    The behavior of the party that claims to care about the environment is unbelievable, constant behavior the blocks any progress on the issue.

  9. guytaur would have some explanations and exhortations about why the Greens have failed to form government for 30 years and why the Greens are flatlining on around 10%.

  10. Tom McIlroyVerified account@TomMcIlroy
    2h2 hours ago
    Prime Minister and Cabinet boss Martin Parkinson is listed to give evidence to an inquiry considering Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne’s compliance with the ministerial standards on Friday, August 30 – Dr Parkinson’s last day at the department #auspol

  11. The Lib-kin are out in force today. How dreary. Same Labor-hate as usual. The Lib-kin should follow their dreams and start to pref the Lib-Libs.

  12. Boerwar:

    I don’t know whether Hanson’s fear was genuine, I just find it amusing that after all her ignorant, disrespectful blather and bluster about people being allowed to climb Uluru it is her that couldn’t make it and needed to be rescued to be brought down.

  13. The Lib-kin lie about Labor even more than do the Lib-Libs. Astonishing but there it is.

    The conclusion from the past 23 years in Federal politics is that dysfunction on the centre left will keep the Lib-Libs in office forever. This is indisputable. We live in Lib-kin Garden, where we will all go mad.

  14. Fess and Boerwar

    I can understand Pauline’s fear. I once got ‘stuck’ up a ladder because I froze with fear.
    But if she has reached her age without realising that she might be incapable of descending, well…

  15. guytaur

    There need to be a lot more than installing a battery in SA.

    In my view, as things stand the cheapest way forward will be the installation of the second tie to Tasmania. If Labor had of won it would now be happening, instead we are getting more building coal fired station bullshit from the Liberals ( that is demand side mate). Windmills and transmission towers are eyesores from the greens. The situation is hopeless. Two parties slowing down the changes that have to occur with neither the Greens or the Liberals planning for the changes in employment that has to occur.

    Today’s big campaign. Sacred gum trees. God what a mess.

  16. frednk @ #1408 Sunday, August 25th, 2019 – 11:05 am

    It is astounding the Greens done get a very simple concept; there is no shortage of potential suppliers of coal.

    That’s as irrelevant as it is simple. 🙂

    Australia is under no obligation to mine and sell coal just because other nations are willing to. Australia’s not responsible for what other nations do. Australia only has responsibility for what Australia does. Very simple concepts, all.

  17. guytaur says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 11:07 am

    FredNK

    I see you still think Opposition is support. How Sad.

    Opposing the opposition is supporting the government. It is not a difficult concept.

  18. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 11:10 am

    Boerwar:

    I don’t know whether Hanson’s fear was genuine, I just find it amusing that after all her ignorant, disrespectful blather and bluster about people being allowed to climb Uluru it is her that couldn’t make it and needed to be rescued to be brought down.’

    She had climbed Uluru previously. Her footwear choice this time round may have been lethal.

    Apart from that, her foray into the Uluru Climb issue is classic One Nation dog whistling.

  19. guytaur says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 11:05 am

    Labor have won just the single Federal election since 1996. We won’t be winning any more anytime soon. The Lib-kin will see to that. The Lib-Libs, their clones, surrogates, substitutes, allies, ensigns, tributaries, shotguns and mercenaries have the numbers. The Labor PV is lowest it’s been in more than a century. The Labor-positive plurality is at best 41% of the electorate. This means Labor cannot win. It also means that none of the Lib-kin values will ever be realised. None of them. Ever. But that does not worry the Lib-kin. They don’t want power. They do not want change. They only want to pose and get elected to the Senate, where they can campaign against their enemy, Labor. This is the true state of affairs in Australian politics. Get used to it. We are all fucked.

  20. FredNK

    Nah not when Labor is being the LNP lap dog.

    So scared of losing by one seat ditching a long held principle about coal.
    To use your masters term. A bunch of bedwetters.

  21. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 11:05 am

    If the Greens are so politically and policy smart, why have the Greens have failed to form government for 30 years and why are the Greens are flatlining on around 10%.

  22. ar

    The issue is transition from coal without destroying the life of thousands of people. To destroy the life of thousands of people for no net gain against the basic problem; “hairless apes have to stop burning fossil fuels” is a nonsense.

    Any party that considers it a good idea to destroy peoples lives for no get gain is going to be justifiable punished in the polls.

    The solution to this problem is the reduction in demand; it is happening, Adani will not go ahead for this reason. All the Greens are succeeding in doing is pissing a lot of people off and as a result fully supporting the Liberals desire to slow the transition away from coal.

  23. I made it about 10 metres up when my boots and courage failed.

    I made it halfway up the line of memorial plaques to those who had fallen.

  24. frednk @ #1408 Sunday, August 25th, 2019 – 11:05 am

    It is astounding the Greens done get a very simple concept; there is no shortage of potential suppliers of coal.

    How is this issue going to be fixed when the Greens can’t grasp simple concepts and chase goals which leave a large portion of the population with a very valid view they don’t care about how the transition is going t be managed.

    The behavior of the party that claims to care about the environment is unbelievable, constant behavior the blocks any progress on the issue.

    This is just plain ridiculous. We can’t do anything while there is still demand for our coal? Riiight!

    Labor is coming apart at the seams on this issue. You can see them unravelling right here on PB. This has little to do with the Greens, and a lot to do with the mental gymnastics Labor partisans are employing to justify their confused and contradictory party platform.

  25. The Queensland coal industry is not responsible for global heating. Shutting it down will not retard global heating. The WA, NT and QLD gas industries are likewise not in themselves responsible for global heating. They could close tomorrow and it would make no difference to anything.

    This is a complex problem. It’s not amenable to simplistic solutions advanced by simpletons. But that won’t stop the simpletons. Not at all. They like tokenism. They trade in political tokens all the time. The solutions to global heating cannot be solved in the Queensland coal provinces. The solutions lie in new energy generation technologies….technologies in which QLD and SA Labor, among others, are investing. But that is not enough for the Lib-Kin. They will destroy Labor if they can. They will use coal to do it. They are Thatcherite in that respect. They will exploit coal miners for political purposes.

    When will the Lib-kin give effect to their true feelings? When will they begin to pref the Lib-Libs? We know they want to.

  26. I am extremely confused over the “coal policies”.

    The Greens want to stop any more coal mines from being established in Oz. But do they want to shut down those still in operation?

    Labor wants to continue to sell coal to the market, and prefers that to be coking coal, but won’t say so too loudly?

    LNP want to encourage more coal mines and open slather on coal energy production?

    Please help me to understand.

  27. briefly @ #1430 Sunday, August 25th, 2019 – 11:33 am

    The Queensland coal industry is not responsible for global heating. Shutting it down will not retard global heating. The WA, NT and QLD gas industries are likewise not in themselves responsible for global heating. They could close tomorrow and it would make no difference to anything.

    This is a complex problem. It’s not amenable to simplistic solutions advanced by simpletons. But that won’t stop the simpletons. Not at all. They like tokenism. They trade in political tokens all the time. The solutions to global heating cannot be solved in the Queensland coal provinces. The solutions lie in new energy generation technologies….technologies in which QLD and SA Labor, among others, are investing. But that is not enough for the Lib-Kin. They will destroy Labor if they can. They will use coal to do it. They are Thatcherite in that respect. They will exploit coal miners for political purposes.

    When will the Lib-kin give effect to their true feelings? When will they begin to pref the Lib-Libs? We know they want to.

    Australia exports 100,000 tonnes of coal per quarteer and the revenues underpin our lifestyle and economy.

    Pretending/demanding/insisting/preaching that Australia should go “Coal Turkey” is a nonsense.

  28. “The CFMEU could be an existential threat to humanity.
    Money over life.”

    This is just an absurdity.

    Just one example. The AFR had a news item a couple of weeks ago about Bangladesh’s 10 new coal fired power plants that are coming online. They are being built right now.

    The Bangladeshis did not decide to build those coal fired power plants because of the availability of Australian steaming coal: they had already lined the Indonesian’s up for coal supply. However, they are now considering buying Australian coal because of quality and reliability of supply. However, the bottom line is, whether it be Australian or Indonesian coal – those plants will be in operation for the next 30-50 years.

    Adani itself provides another example: when first elected a few years back, the BJP’s Modi was asked about the Adani mine: specifically whether it was necessary for India’s energy requirements. His response was very informative and I’ll parse it as best I can: ‘we need the (coal) power stations we have contracted Adani to build and operate. There is a contract for the coal to be supplied (from the Adani mine in the Galilee) and we will honour that, but if the mine goes ahead we can source the coal elsewhere no problems’.

    These two examples hit the nail on the head. You talk about ‘reality’ and ‘fact’ all the time guytaur, but you wouldn’t know either if they ran over you.

    The reality is that the consumption of coal is consumer driving.

    The relevant facts are:

    1. 80% of coal that is burnt is locally mined.

    2. Coal is common throughout the earths crust. No one country has a monopoly and it is in fact too common a mineral for exporting countries to form some type of OPEC style cartel to restrict supply.

    3. Indeed all the major coal exporting countries are in a position to increase production if required.

    Therefore the economic reality is that even though Australia is the major exporter of steaming coal it actually has zero influence over the global consumption of steaming coal. Therefore if Australia decided to stop exports overnight, while there would be a shorter spike in the international spot market price there would be no medium or long term impact on global coal consumption. None what so ever.

    No doubt you see this as a moral issue. It’s a comfortable position to be in – seated on that inner west bar stool, isn’t it? Labor doesn’t have the luxury you do. It has to walk a mile in the shoes of the coal miners and their communities: they are not dumb: they know that some time this century global consumption of steaming coal will end – they simply ask this question, ‘where is the morality in me losing my job when cop is simply going to be mined elsewhere until the consumers of coal find alternative power supplies’?

    That is a very telling question, my friend. What Labor is now saying is, there is no morality in that at all. This is the correct answer.

    You disagree. That’s your privilege, but your decision is based on your take of morality and according to your values.

    Labor is making a different choice.

  29. Lizzie

    You know your view on Adani.

    Labor has given the project green lights. FredNK is still hoping Shorten was right. Others have said it’s too late. It’s all over red rover make money while you can.

  30. lizzie @ #1415 Sunday, August 25th, 2019 – 11:13 am

    Fess and Boerwar

    I can understand Pauline’s fear. I once got ‘stuck’ up a ladder because I froze with fear.
    But if she has reached her age without realising that she might be incapable of descending, well…

    Good on yer matey. Age related balance problems – possible vertigo can be devastating.

    The ladder thing – I somehow think I’m still about 25 years old but the old bastard looking back at me from the bathroom mirror puts the lie to that. Best idea is to get somebody else to do it while standing back and giving unwanted advice.

    Regarding Ms. Hanson – I hope she will learn something from her experience
    although I probably suffer from the usual sense of unreality concerning

  31. I am extremely confused over the “coal policies”.

    The only thing you have to remember is that Labor are the only party of government willing and capable of addressing our GHGEs. No other party has the will or the ability to do so.

  32. Fess

    My prediction. Yes this sell out makes me confident enough to make a prediction and it’s not just on coal. The Green vote is going to go up. Labor will only ever be a minority government as voters see the weakness.

  33. Malcolm Nance
    3 hrs ·
    Prediction: Trump will propose the US leave the G7 and create with Russia, China, Saudi Arabia & Brazil, & a broken UK a new alliance of economic Nationalist autocracies. The A5 + future Italy, Austria & Hungary. Mark my words.
    -Malcolm Nance

    I don’t know whether to laugh or blink!

  34. Someone above posted that Labor had a long-standing principle to stop coal mining but had overturned this for fear of losing seats

    I cannot believe that this is the case – does anyone know the facts

  35. Latest tweet from Trump would suggest Malcolm Nance is making stuff up:

    France and President
    @EmmanuelMacron
    have done a really great job thus far with a very important G-7. Lunch with Emmanuel was the best meeting we have yet had. Likewise, evening meeting with World Leaders went very well. Progress being made!

  36. Labor can only win again by ending the dysfunction on the Left. This means dissociation from the Greens in every respect.

    The Greens are an enemy of Labor – of everything that Labor represent and hope to achieve.

    They have to be opposed.

  37. Labor has ramped up speaking out of both sides of its mouth. We support the science re AGW and we support coal and CSG fracking.

    Huzzah!

    It has learnt nothing, zip, nada from its incoherent and muddled position prosecuted during the last federal election.

  38. Yes, it makes a great deal of sense that we should make a statement by gifting our largest (or second largest) export industry to our competitors.

    The world will stand up and take notice

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