Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law

Higher disapproval ratings for both leaders in the latest Essential poll, which also records lukewarm feelings towards the United States and cooler ones for China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll again comes up empty on voting intention, but it does offer the pollster’s third set of leadership ratings since the election. As with Newspoll, these record a drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval rating, owing to a three point rise in disapproval to 37%, while his approval holds steady at 48%. However, Essential parts company with Newspoll in finding Anthony Albanese up on disapproval as well, by five points to 29%, with approval down one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 44-26 to 44-28.

Further questions suggest the public leans positive on most aspects of the “influence of the United States of America” (defence, trade, cultural and business), excepting a neutral result (42% positive, 40% negative) for influence on Australian politics. The same exercise for China finds positive results for trade, neutral results for culture and business, and negative ones for defence and politics. Asked which of the two we would most benefit from strengthening ties with, 38% of respondents favoured the US and 28% China.

The small sample of respondents from New South Wales were also asked about the proposed removal of abortion from the criminal code, which was supported by an overwhelming 71% compared with 17% opposed. The poll has a sample of 1096 and was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Note also the post below this one, being the latest Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,826 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law”

  1. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 9:39 am

    Boerwar @ #1337 Sunday, August 25th, 2019 – 9:35 am

    Yes, we should celebrate the wonderful contribution the duopoly has given us with rising social inequality, climate warming and ecological extinction. Long may it continue.

    Really, there was no positive action on climate change or progressive social policies when Labor was last in Government?

  2. RD

    But surely the Greens who have never been in government at the federal level are responsible for all those heinous crimes against humanity.

    Such is the (il)logic of the irrational haters.

  3. Boerwar @ #1345 Sunday, August 25th, 2019 – 9:41 am

    Rex
    I see that you have no interest in reflecting on 30 years of Greens’ massive electoral failures.
    This does not suprise!

    Environmentalists will continue arguing on behalf of future generations against the socially self-destructive policies of the duopoly.

    I hope voters will eventually wise up to what’s going on.

  4. I’d love to think this is true, but all I can see is this strengthening the Republican vote, not weakening it.

    Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
    10h10 hours ago
    An impeached Trump who escapes conviction in the Senate will be weaker in 2020 than a Trump who can brag that not even a Democratically controlled House could impeach him. And GOP Senators who give him a pass will be easier to defeat than ones who’re spared any need to be counted

  5. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 9:40 am

    The problem with the freedom of navigation and the freedom of oil exports lines are that the United States has unilaterally walked away from an Agreement that it had only a few years earlier helped broker, and then slapped sanctions on Iran that disrupt both principles totally for that country.

    Especially since the agreement still has support from nearly everyone involved in its brokerage.

  6. ‘Pegasus says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 9:46 am

    RD

    But surely the Greens who have never been in government at the federal level are responsible for all those heinous crimes against humanity.’

    The Greens have totally failed to gain government for 30 years. Therefore the Greens bear no responsibility for anything?
    Really?

  7. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 9:46 am

    RD

    But surely the Greens who have never been in government at the federal level are responsible for all those heinous crimes against humanity.

    Such is the (il)logic of the irrational haters.

    So you’ll start focusing on the Government of the day and attempt to get them to change their ways!

  8. Global Climate Strike on Friday September 20

    10 Reasons to Join the September 20 #ClimateStrike:

    https://www.schoolstrike4climate.com/post/10-reasons-to-join-the-september-20-climatestrike

    Schools & Parents: Tips & Steps for Supporting the #ClimateStrike:

    https://www.schoolstrike4climate.com/post/schools-parents-tips-steps-for-supporting-the-climatestrike?fbclid=IwAR3oy5RxGcDoDq7yYZbju9nuOVUyp-0abcBiUBPGvZ1VQeA6Ot9vsiBSpPQ

    If there is to be a future, young people are our hope.

  9. Both Fran and Payne did better than I expected. I didn’t nod off!

    However, I do wonder who persuaded Fran that her hair suits her.

  10. Player One says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 9:55 am

    Rex Douglas @ #1350 Sunday, August 25th, 2019 – 9:44 am

    It illustrates so clearly the destructive self-wedge Labor continues with as the vested union powers tear Labor apart.

    I wish you wouldn’t argue on my side, Rex. It makes me think I might be wrong!

    It’s called having an epiphany!

  11. WA Labor State Conference

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-25/wa-labor-conference-walkouts-are-mark-mcgowan-nightmare/11445398

    Booing, heckling, walkouts, a tearful apology and a boycott of a keynote speech by a sitting premier, leaving little doubt about the extreme level of division within WA Labor.
    :::
    It only took five minutes for the chaos to start at the 2019 WA Labor conference, and it would not have been much longer before Mr McGowan felt a combination of fury and fear.

    Fury, because years of effort to portray WA Labor as a united machine catastrophically fell apart by 9:05am at a meeting of what was supposed to be party faithful.

    And fear, because his control over his own party now looks shakier than he would have hoped, with rival factions, who have at times made their disdain for Mr McGowan abundantly clear, showcasing their influence in no uncertain terms.
    :::
    But if rival factions really do have the edge in the constant battle for control over the organisation, that could have significant long-term implications for both Labor policy and the candidates picked to run for Parliament.
    :::
    Government and party officials had spent countless hours ahead of the state conference trying to quell unrest, to avoid displays like those seen on Saturday morning.
    :::
    “Labor is the governing party but we can’t govern ourselves,” was the brutal assessment by one MP.

  12. No Party will win Federal Government without winning both Queensland and Western Australia.
    Ordinary Australians in these states live, eat and breathe their respective mining industries.
    The respective mining industries largely pay for their education and health.
    They know it. They vote it.
    The Greens fastnesses will never dominate these states.

  13. Surely this is good news?

    @UnitedVoiceQLD
    ·
    19h
    “Queensland will become the first state in Australia to actually bring private prisons back into public hands” – Corrective Services Minister @MarkRyanQLD
    reaffirms State Gov’s commitment to our prison members’ safety #QALPConf

  14. @Boerwar

    Western Australia has been for a long time one of the states where the Australian Greens are strongest. At the recent federal election, The Greens won nearly 12% of the vote in the Senate in Western Australia against just over 10% for the country as a whole.

    Also at the last state election in Queensland the Greens won 10% of the vote, won a seat in the Legislative Assembly and came close to winning in another.

  15. WA

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-25/call-for-more-transcultural-mental-health-services-in-wa/11442360

    Over the past few years, Suresh Rajan has had the grim task of arranging for the bodies of young West Australian students who have succumbed to mental health problems to be returned to their home countries.
    :::
    Mr Rajan, a spokesman for the WA Ethnic Communities Council, believes these deaths may have been avoided if WA had a specialised, culturally appropriate mental health service.
    :::
    While these interstate services continued to survive and expand, it no longer exists in Western Australia.
    :::
    “There is no service currently in WA that caters specifically for those people.

    “We keep getting told by Government, ‘Yes, we understand your issues. We will get to you’. We are still waiting. Nothing has changed.

    “I am baffled that a group of key stakeholders were brought together, selected based on expertise, skills and experience, and the first we heard that it was put on ice was in June when a question was asked in Parliament.”
    :::
    That question came from Greens MP Alison Xamon.

    “This is another attempt to delay investment in this area as a cost-saving measure,” Ms Xamon said.

    “It means that people from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds are going to continue to not get the level of mental health support that they need.

    “Every year that you delay, these are people’s lives you are messing with. Work has been done, now we have to have investment and implementation.”

  16. The mining representatives of the CFMMEU are very protective of their positions. So protective are they that they are prepared to tear Labor apart to maintain their positions.

  17. I’m getting worried. This is 20 years ago.

    @Rhonda95166192
    ·
    Aug 23
    Replying to @billshortenmp and @stuartrobertmp
    This has already started. My 83 year old father has been threatened with his pension being cut if he doesn’t produce financial statements going back to 1999. Not kidding.

  18. lizzie says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 10:04 am

    Surely this is good news?

    @UnitedVoiceQLD
    ·
    19h
    “Queensland will become the first state in Australia to actually bring private prisons back into public hands” – Corrective Services Minister @MarkRyanQLD
    reaffirms State Gov’s commitment to our prison members’ safety #QALPConf

    Agree, prisons are an unfortunate necessity for a Society and they should never be outside our direct control or be a tool for privare profit.

  19. “What is Labor’s position re the proposed legislation?”

    Hopefully Labor’s position will be one of pure political ruthlessness.

    There are no votes for FOR Labor in supporting excluded asylum seekers in the outer rim of our main cities and regional centres. There are however, potentially votes against Labor, if it engages in any inner city greenie leftie circle jerking over this issue. The end.

  20. “@UnitedVoiceQLD
    ·
    19h
    “Queensland will become the first state in Australia to actually bring private prisons back into public hands” – Corrective Services Minister @MarkRyanQLD
    reaffirms State Gov’s commitment to our prison members’ safety #QALPConf”

    ____________________

    But

    But

    Pegafox News – Fair and Balanced – has assured me – “Lib-Lab: Same-Same”.

    This does not compute.

  21. Yes, it’s always interesting to see the media portrayal (post mortem) of someone you had a little to do with.

    The idea that Tim Fischer was a man of the people, able to talk easily with a range of people, doesn’t gel with the man I knew!

    ‘Two minute Tim’ was a description of his engagement style.

  22. “The mining representatives of the CFMMEU are very protective of their positions. So protective are they that they are prepared to tear Labor apart to maintain their positions.”

    Or save Labor from itself. Perspective.

  23. So, let me get this right.

    Peg’s explanation for 30 years of Greens failure to gain government is that the Greens have actually succeeded because they are on 10% and the trend is increasing.

    Rex’s explanation for 30 years of Greens failure to gain government is that both Labor and Liberal have failed for thirty years to get anything at all right.


  24. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 8:40 am

    Sacred trees

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/appeal-to-save-djab-wurrung-trees-due-to-overlooked-evidence-20190824-p52kcu.html

    Key evidence uncovering the true scope of destruction to Aboriginal culture wrought by the Western Highway duplication near Ararat was overlooked in a federal government decision to approve the controversial project, traditional owners have argued.



    So the Greens are still trying to save dying red gums.

    The age of cause opposes every development that ever was.

    Do us a favor Pegasus, find out how many beers were consumed before whoever is managing this campaign came up with the birth tree idea.

    I see in the latest round of nonsense has given up on the birth tree idea, they are now sacred trees, was that a level of bullshit to far.

    In my view miss representing aboriginal culture by these people shows an enormous disrespect for the original settlers are damage their aims to receive recognition.

    It also does enormous damage to the environmental movement at a time when it needs to be mainstream.

  25. So the USA is looking to Australia for tips on how to do water allocation and cope with drought? To the country whose water management practices brought on the MDB ecological catastrophe? To the country that still seem to believe that growing cotton is a sensible use of water on the driest continent on earth?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-25/california-looks-to-australia-after-major-drought/11445572

    I would find this amusing if it wasn’t just so damned sad! 🙁

  26. ‘Tristo says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 10:07 am

    @Boerwar

    Western Australia has been for a long time one of the states where the Australian Greens are strongest. At the recent federal election, The Greens won nearly 12% of the vote in the Senate in Western Australia against just over 10% for the country as a whole.
    Also at the last state election in Queensland the Greens won 10% of the vote, won a seat in the Legislative Assembly and came close to winning in another.’

    My premise is that for the Greens to achieve what their core national policies they have to form government.
    A corollary of this premise is that faffing around with the BOP has manifestly also failed to deliver Greens core national policies.
    Further, I assume you accept the other basic premise that for 30 years the Greens have failed to form government because they have failed electorally.
    I assume you accept that the Greens are flatlining at around 10% with a bit of statistical noise on either side of the flat line.
    I assume you also accept that 90% of Australian voters do not vote for Greens core national policies.
    If you accept these premises and assumptions that leaves the Greens in a position of having to do some heavy reflection on the Greens Party electoral performance.
    Personally, I don’t buy it that poor sexual discipline and poor Party processes for dealing with these are anything like a sufficient explanation for 30 years of Greens Party failure to form governments in their own right.

    Perhaps you have some insights?

  27. Player One

    I believe they will be asking for tips on water trading. Perhaps Angus Taylor can help them.
    Also the Broken Hill pipeline disaster might give them some help.

  28. P1
    They’re from California.
    If you think Australia’s operation of MDB water is bad you should have a look at what California does to fresh water supplies and how it goes about it.
    The lawyers-to-gigalitre ratio is OTT!
    At least the Murray is still open to the sea.
    The Colorado has mostly stopped doing that for some time.
    As with the MDB, there is a big light at the end of the tunnel.
    The Colorado dams are silting up and will mostly be full of sediment by the end of the millenium.

  29. Yep. Peg’s trend is increasing: the Greens are up to what? 10.4(?)% now?

    Of course she points to all the other ‘independents’ and minors making up another ~15%.

    What she fails to mention of course, is that predominantly these other ‘minors’ are either conservative or downright reactionary.

    What she clearly fails to understand is that the fracturing of the base of centre ‘duopoly’ has led to an increase in crank popularism which always – always – ends up favouring the right: the sum support of centre, centre left and left is weaker. Than it has ever been in Australia.

    That’s why, as an emergency measure, Labor has to ditch left wing and environmental-global heating policies and ruthlessly chase the demographics that have become a dead zone but as a matter of obvious political reality the centre, centre left and indeed the pure left NEED to get back if any real lasting policy progress is going to be achieved.

    If that means, as collateral damage, that Labor becomes more vulnerable to the Greens in about 5-6 seats in the inner city, then so be it. However, contrary to Peg’s belief that such a move will erode Labor’s membership base and support by ‘true believers’ I call shenanigans:

    Labor’s True Believers are crying out for a plan selling hope: not a basket of woke identity policies. A plan to end long term unemployment (keen eyed observers have noticed that I’ve posted some thoughts on this already), to lift incomes and provide better employment opportunities generally is what the true believers want.

    THAT’s Labor’s pathway forward: In line with Labor’s historic mission. Right now, as Nicholas points out we have hundreds of thousands of Australians who have been cast aside by the labour market, with about a million more in less work than they want. This will only get worse with disruptive technologies and as we have to adapt to global heating: Now is the time for Labor to develop a national plan of action: selling hope. Every other policy issue is a distraction to labor in oppposition and should be put to the sword.

  30. frednk
    I don’t think that the cabalistic secrecy of Greens policy processes and the secrecy of the Greens national and state conferences has had much of an electoral impact.
    The secrecy probably saves a few votes from those who would be shocked at what goes on but this is hardly enough to explain why, after 30 years, the Greens are flatlining on 10% and look unlikely ever to form government.
    No, the reasons are much, much bigger than that.

  31. A-E
    That ‘others’ now have a greater electoral appeal than the Greens should lead to some heart-searching among the Greens.
    How did ‘others’ gain the protest vote and the single issue votes?
    Why didn’t the Greens pick up all these totally dissatisfied voters?
    Why are the Greens appealing to only 10% of the voters?

  32. “Perhaps you have some insights?”

    Dunno about Tristo, but I have some thoughts. Ultimately, after the dust has settled, Labor and the Greens must make common cause. Not just with each other, but they have to embrace the voters who have gone missing from both Team Red and Team Green.

    Team Red isn’t very good at the moment at doing that. So much is clear.

    Team Green refuses to acknowledge the basic political imperative however. … Unless of course, as we have long suspected, Team Green actually doesn’t give a fuck about achieving anything: only in being seen to be ‘on the right side’. Whatever that means.

  33. conceding Labor had bungled its messaging leading up its brutal federal election drubbing in May

    Such hyperbole. Labor went into the election with 69 seats, and came out with 68. Nothing brutal about that. Disappointing, sure. But “brutal drubbing”? Hardly.

    Labor loses one seat and the party president acts like it’s Armageddon. I’d hate to see what he’d do if/when faced with a legitimately big loss.

  34. As Labor abandons the environment for their donors the climate crisis heats up. We know the closing down of existing mines and demands to stop exports will soon be reality.

    All those climate models assuming the Amazon would still be the lungs of the earth now redundant

  35. “All those climate models assuming the Amazon would still be the lungs of the earth now redundant”

    You do realise that land clearing across our Island Continent since 1788 is actually a bigger issue than the Amazon or indeed mining in Australia.

    Say Moo, Guytaur.

    Moo.

  36. “We know the closing down of existing mines and demands to stop exports will soon be reality.”

    Yes, we know that you and your woke Bohobo mates are positively screaming that over your Quinoa porridge.

    The voters who actually determine elections in this country? Not so much (IN fact not at all).

    Those countries who are in the market for our mining products? Even less.

    But hey, ‘reality’ ends at the border between Alexandria and Rosebery, right?

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