Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The Coalition finally records an opinion poll lead, as Newspoll breaks the post-election ice.

The ten-week silence of Newspoll – and indeed Australian polling in general, so far as voting intention is concerned – has ended with a result of 53-47 to the Coalition, as reported by The Australian. To this, naturally, must be added the qualification that the pollster never once recorded the newly re-elected government with a lead in the entire three years of the previous parliamentary term. The poll has the Coalition at 44% of the primary vote (41.4% at the election), Labor at 33% (33.3%) and the Greens at 11% (10.4%). The report seems to be saying One Nation is at 3%, which compares with the 3.1% they scored at the election when contesting 59 out of 151 seats.

The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison’s approval at a new high of 51%, up five on the pre-election poll, and down nine on disapproval to 36%. Anthony Albanese’s Newspoll ratings are 39% approval and 36% disapproval, which is a) “the first net positive approval rating for an Opposition leader since 2015”, as noted in the report since Simon Benson, b) the worst Newspoll debut for an Opposition Leader since Andrew Peacock in 1989, as illustrated in this earlier post, and c) the equal lowest uncommitted rating for an Opposition Leader on debut, perhaps mitigating b) a little. Morrison leads 48-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-38 in the pre-election poll, which we can now presume was flattering to Bill Shorten.

No indication at this point as to whether and how Newspoll is doing anything differently. Certainly it looks like business as usual to the extent that the poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1601, with The Australian’s report trumpeting a 2.4% margin of error that is less than the size of its error at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

911 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. https://jacobinmag.com/2019/07/kamala-harris-student-loan-forgiveness

    Love this paragraph:

    “For politicians like Harris, the trick is to avow support for popular progressive reforms while also posturing as an expert who needs time to seriously study the issue, i.e. obfuscating and delaying through complicated technocratic concern-trolling. It’s a strategy designed to win both working-class votes and capitalist-class dollars, while promising nothing.”

  2. Nicholas @ #846 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 7:39 pm

    With respect, lord god, Peg only posts anti-Labor dross

    Those stories are not anti-Labor dross. They are hard-hitting critiques that find their mark every single time. If they were dross the Labor supporters would never acknowledge them. The fact that the Labor supporters squeal so much about them tells you that they have some merit.

    You’ve got your insubstantial member out again, haven’t you!

  5. Having reviewed the Act related to the powers of ACLEI, it is clear that it relates to public servants in Law Enforcement agencies – eg Border Protection officers granting visa and/or turning a blind eye to Triad-linked criminals entering Australia to launder their money through Crown Casinos. It does not relate to former ministers, or current ones – even the Prime Muppet.

    Ancillary people can be called as witnesses. So for example, if Karl Bitar called Scott Morrison and asked him to have a word with Roman QuadBike to go easy on Chinese Whales – then the only one able to be charged by the ACLEI is, you guessed it, the QuadBike.

    https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2019C00068

  7. So, tell me again about MMT, Nicholas.

    Tell me about a middle-aged right-wing Labor braggart’s drinking habits – it’s a riveting read.

  12. But if the money from the gold sale was invested how much would it be worth now?

    Who cares? The Australian Government doesn’t need to earn its own currency. It spends the currency into existence and it taxes the currency out of existence.

  13. “Tell me about a middle-aged right-wing Labor braggart’s drinking habits – it’s a riveting read.”

    Tomorrow I’m having on old friend for dinner. Fava beans and a nice Chianti. Fffp fffp fffp.

  14. Mexicanbeemer:

    The decision to sell gold in hindsight looks silly but that is one of the challenges of asset management.

    No it isn’t. Do you think you’re Joe Lyons?

  16. Based on my research it seems like the price of gold has gone up 4.3 times since the gold sale.

    The Dow Jones over the same time has gone from 7,895.81 to 27,221.35 a 3.4 times times increase.

    So really the gold sale has only cost 2 billion and not investing the money is the other $3 billion

  20. Andrew_Earlwood @ #863 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 7:59 pm

    “Tell me about a middle-aged right-wing Labor braggart’s drinking habits – it’s a riveting read.”

    Tomorrow I’m having on old friend for dinner. Fava beans and a nice Chianti. Fffp fffp fffp.

    AE, I’m coming to Sydney weekend after next. Love to catch up with you for a beer. Contact WB for my email details.

  21. “AE, I’m coming to Sydney weekend after next. Love to catch up with you for a beer. Contact WB for my email details.”

    Wilco. Maybe we can get Guytaur to join us. And any other Bludger as well of course. I’ll ask our lord for your email in a couple of days, and anybody who wants to contact me can get mine from the same source.

  22. Andrew_Earlwood @ #871 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 8:14 pm

    “AE, I’m coming to Sydney weekend after next. Love to catch up with you for a beer. Contact WB for my email details.”

    Wilco. Maybe we can get Guytaur to join us. And any other Bludger as well of course. I’ll ask our lord for your email in a couple of days, and anybody who wants to contact me can get mine from the same source.

    OK.

  24. Pegasus @ #873 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 8:16 pm

    ABC RN Drive interview re Crown allegations and referral to ACLEI

    National probe into allegations about Crown and Commonwealth officials

    Guest: Stephen Charles QC, former judge and helped set up Victoria’s Independent Broad-Based Anti-Corruption Commission

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/national-probe-into-allegations-about-crown-and-commonwealth-of/11367766

    Peg.

    Are you a commentator or just a post box?

  25. Mexicanbeemer:

    Gold looks better than term deposits for us oldies, where we’re only getting 2% at best, far less when dem no good-banks offered some 13% during the Keating era.

  27. Kevin Bonham

    “However, Albanese’s net rating is still at the lower end of the Opposition Leader pool for his time in office. This may reflect dashed expectations. Lefties thought Albanese would be a more principled leader than Shorten but so far have seen more of the same lukewarm, overcalculated, tactical-games approach from the party on the issues that they care about.”

  28. Pegasus @ #877 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 8:22 pm

    Kevin Bonham

    “However, Albanese’s net rating is still at the lower end of the Opposition Leader pool for his time in office. This may reflect dashed expectations. Lefties thought Albanese would be a more principled leader than Shorten but so far have seen more of the same lukewarm, overcalculated, tactical-games approach from the party on the issues that they care about.”

    Bonham’s post requires a far better assessment than the partisan cherry picking you offer.

    You are a disgarce.

  30. Richard Di NataleVerified account@RichardDiNatale
    5h5 hours ago
    The case for a national anti-corruption watchdog has never been clearer. #Greens #auspol

    Richard Di NataleVerified account@RichardDiNatale
    3h3 hours ago
    We need an ICAC now.

    The Empty Suit and the Greens simply don’t get it. The only shot you have at getting a federal ICAC is electing a Labor govt.

  31. Perfect timing to prove my point Peg. You truly deserve a shitful conservative Government. Pity about the actual plight of the people you feign concern for. Silly poors.

  32. GG: you’re reverting to form. Stop being obstreperous, return to your sharing, caring persona, like, for instance, your charming post to lizzie.

  35. So all you PJK lovers the worst Australian government financial decision probably ever was the sale of the Commonwealth Bank. Brought in $8 billion, market cap is now $140 billion. (Sure some rights issues and so forth over the 28 years since sale but also a huge dividend stream. So probably even more of a mistake).

    And BTW the argument that this growth wouldn’t have occurred under continued government ownership isn’t true as the CBA was already performing competitively when sold.

  41. Regarding Reductio ad Absurdem.

    In the Binet intelligence rest was a question which tapped into the ability to cognitively process absurdities.

    The question was usually understood by most kids about 6 years old. A 3 year old who succeeded was usually well ahead of the pack (in all thinking skills) and conversely if say an 8+ year old just can’t process the question.

    “ Statistics show that most people injured in train accidents are in the last carriage. So now, the last carriage is always removed befor the train sets out on its journey. What do you think about this?”

    It’s quite a uplifting and enjoyable experience to watch little kids just on the verge of being able to understand the question coming up with their creative reasoning just a bit wide of the mark.

  43. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2019 at 4:02 pm

    Adam Bandt:
    We are in a climate emergency and governments around the world are recognising it. Thermal coal exports need to be phased out by 2030 and we need to urgently support coal workers and communities during the transition.

    I wish Mr Bandt would give us the benefit of his wisdom as to how you get the Coal Communities that you want to help so much to vote for you?

    So if we phase out thermal coal exports, what will happen to those Countries that are still transitioning out of coal?

    It seems to me that the focus is back to front.

  45. Psyclaw:

    [‘Regarding Reductio ad Absurdem.]

    Really, you’re smart by halves. Please state your argument in comprehensible terms. And please provide your view your of Popper’s hypothesis of scientific method.

  46. the worst Australian government financial decision probably ever

    I my humble opinion, this phrase, which coincidentally is just the kind of phrase i throw around like a moron, largely renders the rest of the claim irrelevant, it is hyperbowling your way to undermining anything else in the sentence that may or may not have had a factual basis if not for the hyperbowling of insanity in the middle. You know privatizing the commonwealth bank probably wasn’t great. But then again no Australian privatization has gone well. It would be difficult for someone who just wasn’t being a stupid ass to establish the Commonwealth bank was the worst.

  47. Nicholas @ #845 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 7:39 pm

    With respect, lord god, Peg only posts anti-Labor dross

    Those stories are not anti-Labor dross. They are hard-hitting critiques that find their mark every single time. If they were dross the Labor supporters would never acknowledge them. The fact that the Labor supporters squeal so much about them tells you that they have some merit.

    Now I know what this is, it’s a rationalisation by Nicholas.

    So, Nicholas, it’s not that the cutting and pasting of any anti Labor articles Pegasus can put her hoofs on proves they are meritorious BECAUSE people complain about them, it’s that they are a monotonous tide of bilgewater that affects our delicate sensibilities so egregiously that we shout out that we just want it to stop!

    But we know that Pegasus won’t stop, nevertheless, as she derives a perverse pleasure from continuing to do it.

    Now do you get it?

  48. Richard Di NataleVerified account@RichardDiNatale
    3h3 hours ago
    We need an ICAC now.

    And why the fuck couldn’t he (and Labor) have been saying that literally every single day at every opportunity between April 18 and May 18? It’s more than a little bit pointless now.

  49. a r says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2019 at 10:52 pm

    Richard Di NataleVerified account@RichardDiNatale
    3h3 hours ago
    We need an ICAC now.

    And why the fuck couldn’t he (and Labor) have been saying that literally every single day at every opportunity between April 18 and May 18? It’s more than a little bit pointless now.

    You certainly wouldn’t want one set up by the Libs and Nats.

  50. We Want Paul

    $130 billion is pretty big. I can’t think of any single Australian Government financial decision with the same consequences. Yes there are general economic policy decisions like taxes and deficits and so on with big impacts. But not a more specific decision like selling an asset.

    Of course it is easy to be wise in hindsight. When the CBA was floated at $5.40, who could imagine it would now be $83.

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