The tribes of Israel

The latest Essential Research poll turns up a mixed bag of views on the Israel Folau controversy. Also featured: prospects for an indigenous recognition referendum and yet more Section 44 eruptions.

The latest of Essential Research’s fortnightly polls, which continue to limit themselves to issue questions in the wake of the great pollster failure, focuses mostly on the Israel Folau controversy. Respondents registered high levels of recognition of the matter, with 22% saying they had been following it closely, 46% that they had “read or seen some news”, and another 17% saying they were at least “aware”.

Probing further, the poll records very strong support for what seem at first blush to be some rather illiberal propositions, including 64% agreement with the notion that people “should not be allowed to argue religious freedom to abuse others”. However, question wording would seem to be very important here, as other questions find an even split on whether Folau “has the right to voice his religious views, regardless of the hurt it could cause others” (34% agree, 36% disagree), and whether there should be “stronger laws to protect people who express their religious views in public” (38% agree, 38% disagree). Furthermore, 58% agreed that “employers should not have the right to dictate what their employees say outside work”, which would seem to encompass the Folau situation.

Respondents were also asked who would benefit and suffer from the federal government’s policies over the next three years, which, typically for a Coalition government, found large companies and corporations expected to do best (54% good, 11% bad). Other results were fairly evenly balanced, the most negative findings relating to the environment (26% good, 33% bad) and, funnily enough, “older Australians” (26% good, 38% bad). The economy came in at 33% good and 29% bad, and “Australia in general” at 36% good and 27% bad. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1099.

Also of note:

• A referendum on indigenous recognition may be held before the next election, after Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt’s announcement on Wednesday that he would pursue a consensus option for a proposal to go before voters “during the current parliamentary term”. It is clear the government would not be willing to countenance anything that went further than recognition, contrary to the Uluru Statement from the Heart’s call for a “First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution” – a notion derided as a “third chamber of parliament” by critics, including Scott Morrison.

• A paper in the University of Western Australia Law Review keeps the Section 44 pot astir by suggesting 26 current members of federal parliament may fall foul by maintaining a “right of abode” in the United Kingdom – a status allowing “practically the same rights” as citizenship even where citizenship has been formally renounced. The status has only been available to British citizens since 1983, but is maintained by citizens of Commonwealth countries who held it before that time, which they could do through marriage or descent. This could potentially be interpreted as among “the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”, as per the disqualifying clause in Section 44. Anyone concerned by this has until the end of the month to challenge an election result within the 40 day period that began with the return of the writs on June 21. Action beyond that point would require referral by the House of Representatives or the Senate, as appropriate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “The tribes of Israel”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    AFP Commissioner Colvin saw the writing on the wall and has not sought an extension to his contract.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/he-saw-the-writing-on-the-wall-afp-commissioner-rules-out-new-term-20190715-p527gt.html
    Business leaders’ confidence in the economy is on the rise, boosted by the prospect of tax cuts and lower interest rates, but it is unlikely to translate into higher wages for their workforces says Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/business-confidence-moves-up-but-wages-are-unlikely-to-follow-20190715-p527bb.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how Trump’s trade war is biting and leaving a nasty scar on China’s growth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/trump-s-trade-war-is-biting-and-leaving-a-nasty-scar-on-china-s-growth-20190715-p527dn.html
    Former leading umpire Simon Taufel has confirmed that England should only have been awarded five runs – not six – off the third-last ball of their innings in the World Cup final, but stressed it would be unfair to suggest the umpiring error cost New Zealand the trophy in one of the most remarkable cricket matches ever played.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/world-cup-umps-got-it-wrong-taufel-20190715-p527g9.html
    If the Albanese Opposition continues to let the Morrison Government run over them without a real fight, the Labor faithful have yet more pain to endure, writes Tarric Brooker.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/will-the-real-albo-please-stand-up,12902
    Julie Power continues her coverage of the Aged Care royal commission with yet another horrible account.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/aged-care-nightmare-from-walking-and-talking-to-dead-in-three-months-20190715-p5278z.html
    Things are getting worse for AMP and its shareholders.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/amp-s-controversial-life-insurance-deal-could-now-be-worth-even-less-20190715-p527ab.html
    Most recent news on the U.S. economy has been upbeat and triumphant but the reality, as Alan Austin reports, is different.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/americans-and-others-duped-by-fake-news-and-tweets,12901
    The building, property and insurance industries combined on Monday to demand stronger action from Australia’s governments on building standards to avert a crisis as certifiers, engineers and architects struggle to get insurance.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6275445/industry-demands-action-to-head-off-building-crisis/?cs=14329
    Meanwhile Morrison has been warned Australia’s building industry could fall apart if compulsory indemnity insurance issues are not tackled.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6275672/pm-warned-aust-construction-may-collapse/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
    Rachael Clun writes that a leading health economist has called for an inquiry into the private health insurance sector as premiums continue to rise faster than wages amid falling membership rates and reports that Stephen Duckett, director of the health program at The Grattan Institute, has urged the Morrison government to investigate the industry he said is decades overdue for an overhaul.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/it-s-a-muddle-leading-health-economist-calls-for-inquiry-into-private-health-insurance-20190712-p526qq.html
    A shrinking tax base is a recipe for disaster for our ageing population explains Greg Jericho. He uncovers some worrying trends.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/jul/15/a-shrinking-tax-base-is-a-recipe-for-disaster-for-our-ageing-population
    Emma Koehn reports that more than 60 per cent of cases brought to Australia’s new one-stop financial complaints authority in its first six months were related to the banks, with credit issues the top concern as complaints soar.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6275615/banking-products-top-list-of-customer-complaints-as-grievances-soar/?cs=14231
    Christopher Knaus reveals that federal agents pressed David McBride on whether journalists knew they might be breaking the law, fuelling belief police tried to build case against ABC and Fairfax.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/16/police-investigating-national-security-leak-grilled-whistleblower-about-journalists
    And Knaus writes that Federal police wanted to fingerprint two ABC journalists involved in a series of stories about Australia’s special forces allegedly carrying out unlawful killings in Afghanistan.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/15/police-wanted-abc-journalists-fingerprints-before-raid-on-sydney-headquarters
    One of the great myths of the gas debate has been that east coast gas customers are paying more for Australian gas than do gas consumers in Japan. That is a nonsense sustained by innocence or deliberate misrepresentation says the AFR.
    https://outline.com/UwnEaA
    The Conversation opines that wind and solar cut rather than boost Australia’s wholesale electricity prices.
    https://theconversation.com/wind-and-solar-cut-rather-than-boost-australias-wholesale-electricity-prices-119979
    If the Adani Carmichael coal mine was a wind farm there would be 4.7 times more Aussie jobs, writes Edward Treloar.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/if-adani-was-a-wind-farm,12898
    Alistair Campbell writes that from Trump to Boris Johnson, we’re moving from post-truth to post-shame.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/15/populism-boris-johnson-brexit-trump
    John Crace says Johnson is nothing if not reliably untrustworthy, but Hunt appears to have accepted the game is up. He reckons it will turn out to be a disaster.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/15/it-will-be-boris-johnson-and-it-will-certainly-be-a-disaster
    Darren Gray writes that social justice experts have urged Australian companies to have strong and deep visibility of their entire supply chains, after allegations emerged that ethnic Uighurs had been forced into factory labour in China. This issue was covered on 4 Corners last night.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/companies-need-clear-visibility-of-china-supply-chains-say-experts-20190715-p527ey.html
    Dana McCauley reports that Hospital staff are preparing to hit the NSW government with a state-wide strike, demanding action to make their workplaces safer after an increase in assaults by patients.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-ve-just-had-enough-healthcare-workers-threaten-strike-over-patient-assaults-20190715-p527f7.html
    Top Republicans remained largely silent after US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that four women of colour in Congress should “go back” to the countries they came from. By Monday, some in the party were speaking up.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/some-republicans-rebuke-trump-s-racism-warily-but-party-leaders-still-silent-20190716-p527if.html
    The idiot is still digging in!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/horrible-and-disgusting-trump-digs-in-amid-censure-of-racist-tweets-about-congresswomen-20190716-p527i7.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe has been busy!



    From a downcast Cathy Wilcox.


    From Matt Golding.



    It’s instructive to read the shit that Zanetti posts on his Twitter stream.

    https://twitter.com/ZanettiCartoons
    Good work from Alan Moir.


    Jon Kudelka and the lot of whistleblowers.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/968e6f66f5f572bbe0c7c7f2c6d28dd5?width=1024

    From the US







  2. Well there you go. So much for Romney being a counter to Trump.

    Alison King NBC10 BostonVerified account@AlisonNBCBoston

    .@MittRomney on Trump calling for 4 congresswoman to go back to their countries of origin? “I certainly feel a number of these new members of Congress have views that are not consistent with my experience and not consistent with building a strong America.” More @NBC10Boston 5pm

  3. Romney has obviously decided to clarify his earlier comments after being criticised for being cowardly.

    Mitt RomneyVerified account@MittRomney
    29m29 minutes ago
    People can disagree over politics and policy, but telling American citizens to go back to where they came from is over the line.

    Mitt RomneyVerified account@MittRomney
    29m29 minutes ago
    The president’s comments were destructive, demeaning, and disunifying. The President of the United States has a unique and noble calling to unite the American people – of all different races, colors, and national origins. In that respect, the president failed badly.

  4. To be clear. I don’t expect Labor to do magic. Just grow a spine. Define Detention Time so they can go full bore calling out the racism for what it is. Remember Labor will get attacked by Dutton Morrison and the Murdoch press for being soft on Security anyway.

    Trump is following Australia be in no doubt and Labor needs to make it clear Morrison Howard and Trump policies are not Labor policy values.

  5. Has anyone else noticed how the Neoliberal Conservative government of Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton (because, admit it, that’s what we have here), is starting to circulate the idea that tax cuts are as good as wage rises?

    Of course they’re not because a tax cut keeps your wage at the same level as cost of living goes up and up and up and a tax cut is not enough to compensate for that. Unless, of course, you are a top wage earner, and then you don’t need it anyway.

    Not to mention the fact that the other side of the tax cut coin is reduction in the amount and quality of services you get, plus how much you have to pay for them, increasingly, out of your own pocket.

  6. Well colour me surprised. Not

    Atlanta (CNN)New documents obtained exclusively by CNN reveal that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange received in-person deliveries, potentially of hacked materials related to the 2016 US election, during a series of suspicious meetings at the Ecuadorian Embassy in London.

    The documents build on the possibility, raised by special counsel Robert Mueller in his report on Russian meddling, that couriers brought hacked files to Assange at the embassy.
    The surveillance reports also describe how Assange turned the embassy into a command center and orchestrated a series of damaging disclosures that rocked the 2016 presidential campaign in the United States.

  7. Commercial radio news this morning:

    Federal Treasury is blaming people who refuse to leave low paying jobs for keeping wages low across the economy.

    Presumably this is relayed from Murdoch Media. It’s also from a government department whose head was controversially appointed by the LNP.

  8. Investigators discovered a safe in Jeffrey Epstein’s Manhattan mansion that held “piles of cash,” diamonds and an expired passport from a foreign country which had what appeared to be Mr. Epstein’s photo, but was registered to a fake name and listed his residence as Saudi Arabia.

    Prosecutors revealed the safe’s contents as they argued in Federal District Court in Manhattan that Mr. Epstein should be denied bail before his sex-trafficking and conspiracy trial because he was a flight risk and a danger to the community. He is accused of abusing dozens of underage girls at his residences in New York City and Palm Beach, Fla.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/15/nyregion/jeffrey-epstein-news.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  9. a r @ #1583 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 10:34 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1507 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 6:08 pm

    a r @ #1450 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 2:22 pm

    America does have a problem with mass immigration of people that are often undocumented, the way its been managed is a serious problem but until there is a proper border and proper process in place then this issue will continue.

    I don’t suppose it helps to say that they started it by completely trashing proper governance in Central America.

    (edit – removal of irrelevance)

    Come again? I never said that thing you’re attributing to me.

    Apologies for bad syntax. It was a clumsy attempt to draw attention to the fact that much of America’s border issues are of its own making; no attribution intended at all.

  10. The immediate crisis in the building industry is represented by people fleeing from cracking and sinking buildings. In the broader sense loan approvals and building approvals for new builds are sickly. There is an insurance strike crisis. The insurance industry is not interested in subsidizing a self-regulating industry.
    Given that that Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments created this series of overlapping crises with their private sector being superior to the public sector, with their industry self-regulation and with their general encouragement of a crony capitalist spiv culture, it is only right and fitting that they deal with the mess.
    Their immediate response is to blame the states for not organizing indemnity insurance for architects, engineers and inspectors.
    And of course the spivs, having privatized the profits are demanding that the states socialize the costs by bailing out individuals whose buildings are falling down around their ears.

  11. Vic:

    The astonishing thing about that report is that it was the Ecuador govt surveiling on him that has brought all this out! Seems like his holing up in their embassy was a massive own goal.

  12. The ‘wisdom’ of MicMac.

    @SabraLane
    In hindsight, was it a mistake to separate land from water rights?
    @M_McCormackMP
    No I don’t believe so because farmers have made a lot of money out of it. #Auspol #AM

  13. Fess

    It will not surprise me one little bit if Epstein was working for another country. Actually it would shock me if he wasnt.

  14. citizen says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 8:41 am

    Commercial radio news this morning:

    Federal Treasury is blaming people who refuse to leave low paying jobs for keeping wages low across the economy.

    Presumably this is relayed from Murdoch Media. It’s also from a government department whose head was controversially appointed by the LNP.

    So employers are willing to pay new staff more rather than reward the loyalty and experience of their existing staff.

    Where else have we seen this occur in business?

  15. Anyone else noticed how Trump has turned up the Outageometer to eleven, about the Women of Colour Congresswomen, since the Epstein matter came to the fore?

  16. David Shoebridge @ShoebridgeMLC
    ·
    1h
    State governments created the construction crisis – they privatised inspectors, removed insurance and delivered for developers every step of the way. They literally removed all consumer safeguards. Now they act surprised there’s a problem?

  17. Confessions @ #1623 Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 8:52 am

    Vic:

    The best outcome to explain the false passports is that he was working for another country. The more obvious explanation doesn’t bear thinking about.

    Untraceable, to him, *** tourism?

    However, it’s interesting to note that, at the end of the day, birds of a feather flock together and a Jewish man had no qualms about travelling on an Arab passport.

  18. lizzie @ #1624 Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 8:55 am

    David Shoebridge @ShoebridgeMLC
    ·
    1h
    State governments created the construction crisis – they privatised inspectors, removed insurance and delivered for developers every step of the way. They literally removed all consumer safeguards. Now they act surprised there’s a problem?

    And what is the solution coming from our complicit Coalition Premier? A Building Commissioner. Tokenism at best. As that was the source of the problem to begin with, an under-resourced inspection team who couldn’t get around to all the building sites and so allowed builders to phone it in. And now they act surprised that people weren’t telling the truth and the buildings were a house of cards waiting to fall over!?!

  19. Mundo

    You never know. Keneally has been challenging Dutton. She could realise the best time to redo immigration is just after an election.

    Putting meat on the bones of we oppose indefinite detention can be a good way of avoiding being part of the Trump Australian Racist Immigration policies.

  20. FUCK the building industry companies. Let them and their hired hands of the Liberal Party enjoy the fruits of their ‘cutting the dead hand of red tape’ effort.

  21. While on the subject of Trump has Morrison condemned his racism like May and Trudeau have done? Or is he still celebrating getting the red carpet State dinner treatment?

  22. Shock, horror!

    Red tape forces business to provide an adequate product,

    No red tape allows business to provide what they think they can get away with.

    How unsurprising!!!

  23. C@tmomma @ #1609 Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 8:27 am

    Not to mention the fact that the other side of the tax cut coin is reduction in the amount and quality of services you get, plus how much you have to pay for them, increasingly, out of your own pocket.

    That’s the cruncher. Privatise the public service, annul govt accountability, and increase the cost of the service to the punter while simultaneously decreasing its quality.

    That link from BK (ta BK) to the Alastair Campbell article is worth a read about how the punters get suckered into this, and how populism works. This quote, from an aussie commenter on one of his pieces, is worth repeating:

    “Voting for a populist party is like diving headfirst into an empty swimming pool, because you’re angry that there’s no water in it.”

  24. “Anyone else noticed how Trump has turned up the Outageometer to eleven, about the Women of Colour Congresswomen, since the Epstein matter came to the fore?”

    Just a coincidence? Unlikely.

  25. ItzaDream

    That’s the cruncher. Privatise the public service, annul govt accountability,

    THAT is the first thing I noticed about privatisation and why the pollies love it. Things that were 3rd rail issues previously , electricity price increases etc, suddenly became ‘commercial in confidence’ and ‘You need to see them over there about it’ . The polies off loaded their responsibility. Big bonus being lots of cushy jobs post career,donations etc etc. What’s not to like ?

  26. shellbell

    People get out of their tourist bus, mill about a little, climb the rock, get back in the buses and are transported away in A-C comfort. Tick.

  27. Why does Pauline Hanson’s press release deliver Pauline Hanson’s opinion in the third person?

    Poor journalists are going to have to cover it like “Pauline Hanson’s press release said that ‘Senator Hanson said `…`'”. There are barely enough kinds of quote marks to make it work.

  28. She still basically calls it Ayers Rock.

    Uluru gets into the subject line, and then a mere two (bracketed) appearances.

  29. The jump to hyperbole in condemning Trump for “racism” is just what Trump and his followers relish. It makes them feel good. They LIKE being called “racists”. They’re unabashed about it. Being redneck bigots is what they are all about.

    “Xenophobic” was a better word, uttered by one of Trump’s Republican critics (at least it might cause some of them to fetch a dictionary). “Divisive” fits the bill, too. “Counterproductive” might also suit, because eventually Trump is going to cause some of his browner fans to consider their own positions and statuses within the Trump world view.

    But to make the jump directly to hyperspace with “racist” is close to meaningless. It’s all been said before… to often to still pack a punch.

    We’ve seen a lot of handwringing articles recently written about how accusing Trump of being a “rapist” or a “traitor” doesn’t seem to have the oomph it used to have.

    Of course it doesn’t! When your first resort is to absolutes (or damn close to them) then absolutes tend to have an immunizing effect on debate. We get “traitor” ho-hum. “Rapist” uh-huh. And now “racist” yawns all ’round.

    You might be genuinely outraged about Trump’s excesses, but the beast he is feeds off attention and the negative energy it delivers. I saw a report yesterday linked here that informed us Trump had received the equivalent of $1.8 billion in free, albeit negative publicity from the American media during the 2016 campaign.

    Lefty outrage is what Trump craves, and by expressing such outrage so readily and using extreme language (even if they accurately describe the man) you do Trump a service. Why should Trump pay for publicity when his enemies will supply it free of charge?

    I know it probably makes those enemies feel better after using the R-word – just as labelling almost anyone who criticises any woman as “misogynistic”, or who chastises a gay person as secretly “homophobic”- but feeding Trump’s ego with industrial strength outrage is a big price to pay for the temporary relief gained from getting that outrage off their chest until the next Trump whopper comes along.

    Such outrage is more a sign of the utterer’s weakness than of their strength. “Baying at the moon” comes to mind. Trump just loves to label his opponents as weakened losers, because it makes him and his tribe feel better about themselves. He’s in business because he upsets his opponents, not despite it.

    So go ahead and rage, but realize it’s most likely doing Trump’s cause far more of a favour than it is doing your own.

  30. Lizzie
    ” @AdaniOnline

    Is preparing for a campaign of intimidation , bullying , misinformation and character assassination. #Adani has demanded the names of the @CSIROStaff Scientists reviewing its ground water plan
    @AlboMP
    #StopAdani #auspol”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-16/adani-requests-names-of-csiro-scientists/11308616

    Apart from the obvious risk of intimidation to bias outcomes, is this demand even legal? There is still a Federal Privacy Act, in theory if not in practice. I also understood that public servants were not supposed to divulge this sort of information, other than the delegated authority who signed the final assessment document.

  31. BB

    Again you are wrong.
    Stop listening to the right wing talking points and excusing the inexcusable.

    It’s pretty bad when you are more outraged by the use of the word racist than the racism.

    Remember in the US rage turns out the base. That’s raging black women turning out that stayed home for Clinton. Game over. Even the narrow path Trump had last time gone.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-base-isnt-enough/

  32. Hansen letter completely justifies the decision to ban climbing.

    For one it will it will minimise the number of visitors that have little to no respect for the culture of the place and people.

    Hansen highlights this disrespect by using the old Anglo name with the actual name reduced to an afterthought in parentheses.

    Wow! 38% indigenous employment in hotels, so more than 60% of workers are imported!

    In giving forewarning of the closure, the custodians have been incredibly generous at much personal cost.

    They must sit back and observe a potential influx people, some of whom’s only desire is to completely ignore their cultural beliefs and wishes.

    That the ban is needed is a sign of how selfish and inconsiderate people can be.

  33. shellbell says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 9:27 am

    Alice Springs is hardly nearby to Uluru.

    Walking around it is pretty amazing.

    I’d imagine you had a bit more solitude and time for reflection.

    I never visited, but had the good fortune to fly over it once. Stunning countryside.

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