The tribes of Israel

The latest Essential Research poll turns up a mixed bag of views on the Israel Folau controversy. Also featured: prospects for an indigenous recognition referendum and yet more Section 44 eruptions.

The latest of Essential Research’s fortnightly polls, which continue to limit themselves to issue questions in the wake of the great pollster failure, focuses mostly on the Israel Folau controversy. Respondents registered high levels of recognition of the matter, with 22% saying they had been following it closely, 46% that they had “read or seen some news”, and another 17% saying they were at least “aware”.

Probing further, the poll records very strong support for what seem at first blush to be some rather illiberal propositions, including 64% agreement with the notion that people “should not be allowed to argue religious freedom to abuse others”. However, question wording would seem to be very important here, as other questions find an even split on whether Folau “has the right to voice his religious views, regardless of the hurt it could cause others” (34% agree, 36% disagree), and whether there should be “stronger laws to protect people who express their religious views in public” (38% agree, 38% disagree). Furthermore, 58% agreed that “employers should not have the right to dictate what their employees say outside work”, which would seem to encompass the Folau situation.

Respondents were also asked who would benefit and suffer from the federal government’s policies over the next three years, which, typically for a Coalition government, found large companies and corporations expected to do best (54% good, 11% bad). Other results were fairly evenly balanced, the most negative findings relating to the environment (26% good, 33% bad) and, funnily enough, “older Australians” (26% good, 38% bad). The economy came in at 33% good and 29% bad, and “Australia in general” at 36% good and 27% bad. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1099.

Also of note:

• A referendum on indigenous recognition may be held before the next election, after Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt’s announcement on Wednesday that he would pursue a consensus option for a proposal to go before voters “during the current parliamentary term”. It is clear the government would not be willing to countenance anything that went further than recognition, contrary to the Uluru Statement from the Heart’s call for a “First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution” – a notion derided as a “third chamber of parliament” by critics, including Scott Morrison.

• A paper in the University of Western Australia Law Review keeps the Section 44 pot astir by suggesting 26 current members of federal parliament may fall foul by maintaining a “right of abode” in the United Kingdom – a status allowing “practically the same rights” as citizenship even where citizenship has been formally renounced. The status has only been available to British citizens since 1983, but is maintained by citizens of Commonwealth countries who held it before that time, which they could do through marriage or descent. This could potentially be interpreted as among “the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”, as per the disqualifying clause in Section 44. Anyone concerned by this has until the end of the month to challenge an election result within the 40 day period that began with the return of the writs on June 21. Action beyond that point would require referral by the House of Representatives or the Senate, as appropriate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “The tribes of Israel”

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  1. Trade the names of the scientists for the names of the beneficiaries of the windfall profit,buying and selling land adjacent to the Darling river, the windfall profits then domiciled in the Cayman Is.
    Just saying!

  2. Socrates

    It seems that someone connected with Adani found a social media anti-Adani message sent from a group protesting about the danger to the finches. This was their excuse for pursuing scientists.

  3. And good old MicMac has spoken in defence of Adani’s pursuit of scientists (which so far has been blocked by CSIRO & GeoScience).

  4. guytaur

    BB’s point is that outraging the ‘liberals’ is what Trump wants/loves . The “Liberal outrageapalooza’ during the campaign was manna from heaven for him. BB also points out the danger of ‘outrage fatigue’ something that is real. People switch off after a while, it becomes background noise. Like the continuing reports regarding conditions in our concentration camps.

  5. Zoidlord says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 6:20 am

    @Mexicanbeemer

    You don’t state evidence just hearsay.
    ———————
    The evidence is based on over twenty or thirty years of following this issue, many of these people are not claiming refugee status, some do but many don’t.

  6. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/truth-of-renewables-is-plain-for-all-to-see/news-story/0b75ed63959a6cc16ae6aa6e891cc2fa

    Plans are afoot for projects that will supply electricity from Australia to Asia.

    Other developments envisage bottling solar and wind energy as hydrogen for export.

    Dr Brown finally seems to have realised that wind farms can be industrial facilities more interested in making money than saving the world. And the impact they have is not always benign.

    Dr Brown is right to fear the impact massive wind-farm projects can have on birds, particularly shore birds and raptors.

    He is correct to question whether the interruption to rural landscapes can easily be justified.

    A project has got big enough and close enough that a father of conservation, Dr Brown, can no longer ignore it.

    I am left wondering whether the item show below may help in deciphering Mr. Lloyd’s article.

    Just the very moment I received my $30,000 Franking Credit from the Australian Citizens Benevolent Society (hereinafter referred to as the ATO I will be investing in the following sure fire money spinning company.

    Other developments envisage bottling solar and wind energy as hydrogen for export.

    Cold and windy in Newcastle today.
    13℃ Wind WNW 26 KPH. ☮ ☕🍝 (That’s spaghetti).

  7. arney in Makassar says:

    Just rereading my last two posts.

    Don’t show them to my students, please!

    Sure thing but to make sure just post 5 non sequential $100 bills to Poroti @ P.O. Box 123 ………. 🙂

  8. Plus the memorials to those who fell had a sobering effect.

    I actually enjoyed Palm Valley more which was in full bloom a few months after heavy rain.

  9. poroti,

    Tracey Ullman summed it up well, in her woke skit, when she said wtte,

    You can’t fight everything, you have to pick your battles.

  10. I had wondered how our PM’s principles allowed him to consort so intimately (deliberate choice of words) with Trump, who must surely represent the opposite of any Christian values.

    Then I recalled the sudden sexy blossoming of his wife when it was required in Trump’s presence (compare her dress when meeting the Queen) and his ability to ignore facts which do not assist his rise to power.

  11. I think you’ll find there’s a direct correlation between the quality of the built product and the level of design documentation and more importantly whether the designer, in the case of apartment building the architect, has been retained to provide construction administration services. These are both areas that the developers have sort to cut out of the process and largely succeeded.

    Commensurate with this has been a growing industry trend to always find the bottom line in cost whether that be the builder, the materials or the professional fees. Why pay a decent architect or engineer $100K when there’s someone who’ll do it for half the cost. Problem is you largely pay for what you get, same as in any other industry.

    There’s been very little discussion throughout the apartment debacle about the role of the architectural profession in providing better outcomes no only in terms of the design of buildings but also the quality of the finished project. That’s something that has changed significantly over the last 30 years, especially in the private sector not so much with public works.

  12. poroti says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 10:24 am

    arney in Makassar says:

    Just rereading my last two posts.

    Don’t show them to my students, please!

    Sure thing but to make sure just post 5 non sequential $100 bills to Poroti @ P.O. Box 123 ……….

    What’s a “$100 bill”?

    I do have several 100 rupiah coins that I’d be happy to pass on. 🙂

  13. One of the NZ team’s reaction to their draw loss. 🙂

    Kids, don’t take up sport. Take up baking or something. Die at 60 really fat and happy.
    — Jimmy Neesham (@JimmyNeesh)

  14. Poroti

    Exactly why Trump will lose. His vote depends on outrage more than the Democrats.

    The Democrats are going to have an election on two issues. The Putocracy and how to deal with it. Also the extremism of White Supremacy.

    Be in no doubt black people will turn out on those two issues. Especially as Martin Luther King being called a Socialist was familiar to them.

    If BB was correct the Civil Rights movement would never have won victories

  15. It’s not surprising that cricket, a game where a draw is a completely acceptable result, has so many problems trying to force a binary result.

  16. Guytaur
    Its still too early to call Trump a oncer, he is vulnerable if the economy sinks into recession and he fails to get a trade deal but it also depends on who the Democrats nominate and how they campaign, they can’t be sidetracked by special issues and need to be totally focused on a clear agenda.

  17. Barney in Makassar @ #1650 Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 10:10 am

    shellbell says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 9:27 am

    Alice Springs is hardly nearby to Uluru.

    Walking around it is pretty amazing.

    I’d imagine you had a bit more solitude and time for reflection.

    I never visited, but had the good fortune to fly over it once. Stunning countryside.

    Go one day Barney. Go by car. Don’t fly. Drive from wherever. I drove from Sydney (1988 – bicentennial jamboree) in a long four State / Territory loop. It’s where it is as much as what it is (BIG, and singular) that is important to its appreciation. And you only get to grips with where it is by the driving the distance and seeing the country in which it reigns. imo.

  18. Mexican

    It’s too early to say Trump will win. All we can say if you were putting money on it today you would put it on the Democrats. Their base is very enthusiastic.

    The Justice Democrats v Third Way have engaged the grass roots big time. This is reflected by the numbers of candidates that are in the race with late entrants.

    Edit: The last thing Liberals want is to tell people shut up stop getting into the political process because you are outraged.

  19. poroti @ #1655 Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 10:20 am

    guytaur

    BB’s point is that outraging the ‘liberals’ is what Trump wants/loves . The “Liberal outrageapalooza’ during the campaign was manna from heaven for him. BB also points out the danger of ‘outrage fatigue’ something that is real. People switch off after a while, it becomes background noise. Like the continuing reports regarding conditions in our concentration camps.

    Well and good, but here do you stop / start? With Trump there is no bottom. There is no depth to which he won’t sink. But to shift the ‘blame’ for the sinkage onto those who call him out isn’t right.

    I don’t know what the answer is. It’s a nasty spiralling out we are in. It’s a collapse of goodness. It is serious.

  20. Guytaur
    One state that I think will be interesting will be Texas, it has an image of being strong Republican but at the last mid-terms the senate race was very close.

  21. BK @ #1601 Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 8:02 am

    One of the great myths of the gas debate has been that east coast gas customers are paying more for Australian gas than do gas consumers in Japan. That is a nonsense sustained by innocence or deliberate misrepresentation says the AFR.
    https://outline.com/UwnEaA

    Sorry, BK but that article is a load of bollocks!

    The author is (deliberately) confusing spot prices with contract prices, and is using this to argue that the most effective way to support Australian gas users would be to provide them with a gas price subsidy rather than – god forbid! – actually reducing the gas price because there is excess of supply.

    The fact is that the world spot price for gas is low at the moment, so gas suppliers are not selling their excess gas on the spot market. Instead, yet again they are selling their excess gas to the Australian domestic market – at higher than the spot price you can buy it for overseas. Which is precisely what they claim is not happening.

    The doublethink required to read this article is simply astounding.

    Also, should the spot price go up again, no doubt they will then argue that Australian domestic gas prices must go up. These bastards get you coming and going!

    It is unbelievable that such a dishonest article (it goes way beyond simple ignorance or misunderstanding) should appear in a major financial newspaper.

    But, such is life in modern Australia … 🙁

  22. ItzaDream

    It’s a nasty spiralling out we are in. It’s a collapse of goodness. It is serious.

    I can find nothing in the world to provide optimism now.

  23. Mexican

    Texas was close because the Democrats ran seriously.

    Texas is becoming purple not red. The only question is purple enough for the Democrats to win this time? O Rourke shows not quite just very very close. Maybe the next one.

    With so many flips for the Mid Terms the likely outcome being between that and 2016 means a Democratic win.
    Civil Rights is big again. That means advantage Democrats on likely voter turn out.

  24. Mexicanbeemer @ #1667 Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    it also depends on who the Democrats nominate and how they campaign, they can’t be sidetracked by special issues and need to be totally focused on a clear agenda.

    Maybe. As long as the agenda is “get rid of Trump”. The Democrats should have mobs of people chanting “Lock him up!” at rallies, debates, and generally in the streets.

    Any sort of policy-based agenda would be a terrible campaign idea. Clinton had policies. Fat lot of good it did her. The election is about personalities and firing up the base. Nobody wants to hear anyone’s 12 point plan for sustainable economic success. It’s folly to pretend otherwise.


  25. ItzaDream says:

    Go one day Barney. Go by car. Don’t fly. Drive from wherever. I drove from Sydney (1988 – bicentennial jamboree) in a long four State / Territory loop. It’s where it is as much as what it is (BIG, and singular) that is important to its appreciation. And you only get to grips with where it is by the driving the distance and seeing the country in which it reigns. imo.

    Do it in autumn. And when the sky is blue as blue and it is the middle the day, stop hop out of the car walk a little and listen. It is an amazing experience. Words don’t come close; you just have to experience it.

  26. AR

    That’s why the Democrats are running Healthcare and We are not Trump.

    Two simple messages that tie in together. As Midterms showed works nationally.

  27. ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 10:40 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #1650 Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 10:10 am

    shellbell says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 9:27 am

    Alice Springs is hardly nearby to Uluru.

    Walking around it is pretty amazing.

    I’d imagine you had a bit more solitude and time for reflection.

    I never visited, but had the good fortune to fly over it once. Stunning countryside.

    Go one day Barney. Go by car. Don’t fly. Drive from wherever. I drove from Sydney (1988 – bicentennial jamboree) in a long four State / Territory loop. It’s where it is as much as what it is (BIG, and singular) that is important to its appreciation. And you only get to grips with where it is by the driving the distance and seeing the country in which it reigns. imo.

    You got caught in my grammatical sloppiness. 🙂

    I would love to visit one day, I love the desert’s harsh beauty and Uluru fits that view.

    My sighting was at 30,000+ feet, so I certainly got an appreciation of the surrounding countryside, although you’re right nothing replaces actually travelling through it.

    I’ve never had a bucket list, my travelling is usually a very fluid thing that takes me places often on a complete whim.

    Maybe one day that whim might find me in the heart of our Country, I wouldn’t be disappointed if it did! 🙂

  28. I should point out that Labor needs to do this as well Rudd ran on not being John Howard and Industrial Relations.

    Labor needs to find that issue that resonates with voters and run on not being Morrison. Labor can control the issue it’s going to run on if they are prepared like Morrison was to look ridiculous.

    Voters say they hate it but we saw what happened

  29. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 10:51 am

    Guytaur
    One state that I think will be interesting will be Texas, it has an image of being strong Republican but at the last mid-terms the senate race was very close.

    Maybe that’s one reason why they want to restrict the flow of migrants/refugees, the potential of it turning Texas blue.

  30. There’s a sobering truth to Trump’s racist tweets that we don’t like to admit

    President Trump’s critics may not like to admit it, but there’s an element of truth in the racist tweets he sent this weekend.

    In one America, people react with shock when a President issues vile racist tweets against women lawmakers. In the other America, people say nothing.

    In one America, people speak out in protest after a President claims that African, Haitian, and Salvadoran immigrants come from “sh**hole” countries. In the other America, people nod in agreement.

    In one America, people become outraged when administration officials snatch migrant children from their mothers’ arms and detain them for weeks in filthy conditions with no repercussions. In the other America, people remain silent.

    And in one America, people condemn a President for describing protestors alongside neo-Nazis as “very fine people.” In the other America, people shrug.

    These two Americas have long co-existed.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/15/us/trump-tweets-two-americas-blake/index.html

  31. nath says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 11:12 am

    Barney I think it’s about time you headed off to the Golden Triangle region. Let us know how it all goes.

    I’ve been there a number of times over the years, lovely region and certainly little left of what your ignorance is alluding to.

  32. Guytaur
    “One state that I think will be interesting will be Texas, it has an image of being strong Republican but at the last mid-terms the senate race was very close.”

    That was in a large part because the incumbent (Cruz) is a certified douche, and the challenger (O’Rourke) was charismatic and gained a substantial following (though he’s since turned out to be a bit of a flash in the pan).

    Texas as a swing state is the holy grail for the Dems. Despite the massive demographic changes in the state, it’s still a fair way off. Maybe one day…

  33. lizzie @ #1676 Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 10:55 am

    ItzaDream

    It’s a nasty spiralling out we are in. It’s a collapse of goodness. It is serious.

    I can find nothing in the world to provide optimism now.

    There is still comfort to be had. Just read the posts regarding Uluru. Look at your dogs. Regard the mathematics in music. Ponder on the magic of simply liking some people for reasons unknown. Enjoy the superior position granted us by the effwits of the world.
    And so say all of us.
    Spaghetti for one Muriel.

  34. lizzie @ #1676 Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 10:55 am

    ItzaDream

    It’s a nasty spiralling out we are in. It’s a collapse of goodness. It is serious.

    I can find nothing in the world to provide optimism now.

    (old hippie new age alert)

    I had always believed that I would die seeing the world on an upward arc to harmony. It was the optimism of the 60s and 70s, the post war thought pattern that together was better than separate, on any and all levels. That Vietnam was the last throw of the imperial dice.

    This was my template; the age of Aquarius was at hand.

    When the moon is in the Seventh House
    And Jupiter aligns with Mars
    Then peace will guide the planets
    And love will steer the stars
    This is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius

    One of the old new age beliefs was that with the progression from the Age of Pisces (the Jesus two thousand years) to the Age of Aquarius (the incoming two thousand years of harmony), there would need to be a complete collapse, ashes from which there would be resurrection. Well, collapse seems to be the order of things.

    I don’t believe much any more. No, that’s not true. I have strong beliefs. But I don’t believe much about what is or will be happening, except that global warming is a looming extinction event. That I believe. My metaphysics is for another time.

    I know how you feel lizzie.

  35. More on Trump’s meme/Information Warfare army(and the same, it seems goes for the Coalition here):

    Benny Johnson took to the stage at the convention center in Palm Beach, Florida, before an audience of cheering young Trump supporters in December to lead a session titled “How to Own the Libs.”

    “I ask myself every day: How do we own the libs?” said Johnson, at the time a reporter for the right-wing Daily Caller. “How do we do it in a way that makes a difference? Because these people deserved to be wrecked.”

    According to Johnson, the answer to that question is memes. These bits of humor or political propaganda—generally images overlaid with a caption designed to go viral—are best known for littering social media, but some experts think they might have helped elect Donald Trump. Or as notorious internet troll Chuck Johnson has said, “We memed the president into existence.”

    Following that unexpected meme-driven success, well-funded conservative groups are making a more organized push to train young internet-savvy right-wingers in the art of meme-making, enlisting a growing army in what they see as the coming meme war of 2020. Turning Point USA, the conservative campus group that organized the conference, is merely one of these organizations seeking to sway hearts, minds, and elections via meme trainings. And it’s clear that when it comes to political memes, the left—which has never taken them very seriously—is trailing the right badly, and falling even further behind.

    …Jeff Giesea, a consultant who has worked with venture capitalist Peter Thiel and the Koch brothers, is a self-described “memetics” expert. During the 2016 Trump campaign, he joined with men’s rights agitator Mike Cernovich to organize MAGA3X, a grassroots army of online trolls who worked to meme Trump to the White House. The effort produced tens of thousands of social media accounts, all working in concert to promote Trump, with a heavy emphasis on iconography. They even created a flash-mob meme generator to make it easy for Trump supporters to hook up in real life.

    Giesea has long argued that memes are such a powerful tool they should be used as cyberwarfare to combat propaganda from ISIS and other foreign threats. In 2015, he wrote in a NATO journal on information warfare that “it seems obvious that more aggressive communication tactics and broader warfare through trolling and memes is a necessary, inexpensive, and easy way to help destroy the appeal and morale of our common enemies…Memetic warfare is about taking control of the dialogue, narrative, and psychological space. It’s about denigrating, disrupting, and subverting the enemy’s effort to do the same.”

    The same could be said of memes in politics. Cheap, subversive, and designed to provoke an emotional response, memes are a disruptive form of information guerrilla warfare. Republicans have gotten Giesea’s message, while Democrats have all but ignored it.

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/04/right-wing-groups-are-training-young-conservatives-to-win-the-next-meme-war/

  36. ItzaDream

    I used to feel the same optimism about the Age of Aquarius (my sun sign is Aquarius). Now there is a dark star rising.

  37. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 11:33 am

    KayJay

    You are a beacon of light shining in a dark world.

    There’s still much light, it’s just that the media find their comfort in the dark and the superficial.

  38. lizzie

    Be indefatigable in determination. Keep fighting. It’s the only way that works. Roll over give up the LNP win.

    That means enjoying your quality of life and remembering the right is losing. Now they are only winning one seat majorities instead of landslides.

    They are still trying to hold progress back. See the Uluru Statement. See the desperation to defend Folau. These are rearguard battles to prevent the change that’s coming.

    Same with Climate. This is true not just in Australia but world wide. Greece just voted Golden Dawn out of Parliament. The EU has generally moved left.

    There is a lot to fight for. The world is getting better. Recognition of Alan Turing on the 50 Pound Note is another example of progress we are making.

  39. National Party luminaries such as Barnaby Joyce and NSW deputy premier John Barilaro must be tickled pink. The electorates of these outspoken pro-nuclear advocates have been identified by the local nuclear lobby as some of the most prospective locations for their call to build 20 nukes in Australia’s main grid.

    These areas include Joyce’s New England electorate, Barilaro’s state electorate of Monaro in southern NSW, and fellow booster Ken O’Dowd’s federal electorate of Flynn in central Queensland. Won’t their constituents be pleased!

    Other towns and regions identified include the Latrobe Valley, the Gippsland region of Victoria, Albury, Whyalla and Port Augusta in South Australia, the mid-north coast of NSW, and a whole bunch of sites in south-east Queensland.

    The Australian Nuclear Association last week gave a presentation to the Australian Institute of Energy in Victoria, in which ANA vice president Robert Parker outlined his hopes for the country to adopt nuclear and for the renewable energy industry to be stopped, quite literally, in its tracks.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/nuclear-lobby-identifies-preferred-sites-for-20-nukes-in-australia-19298/

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