Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

  1. Pegasus @ #1235 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 7:48 pm

    Setka

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-11/setka-returns-to-court-to-stop-labor-expulsion/11299078

    Federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s plan to expel controversial construction union boss John Setka from the Australian Labor Party next week has been thwarted in the Victorian Supreme Court.

    The battle, which has been described by national branch as “disruptive and detrimental” to the Labor party, could drag on for months, and the matter may end up in the High Court.

    This afternoon the ALP agreed to delay its plans while the Supreme Court considered an injunction request from Mr Setka, the CFMEU construction division secretary, to prevent his expulsion.

    And? Other than a none too subtle gloat, your point is? You’ll be happy if Setka wins this court case?

  2. Henry:

    Lawry was the kind of inverse Murphy’s Law of cricket commentary. The minute he came on to commentate it was quite literally “all happening”.

  3. Boerwar:

    We have far too much plastic in our lives. Another opportunity for those people with disability who require straws to drink is to purchase a reusable one themselves and take it with them when they dine out.

    I did plastic free July last year and found it challenging going from what I thought was a low plastic lifestyle, when in actuality I still used single use plastics on a daily basis. Over the last 12 months I’ve found ways to eliminate single use plastic from our household to the point it’s now just habit for me. I can’t remember the last time I use cling wrap, but the ongoing challenge is supermarket goods. So much of what we purchase in supermarkets comes pre-packaged in plastic.

  4. “When I was a kid there were straws but none of them were plastic.”

    Showing my age, I remember. They were some sort of stiff, waxed paper.

  5. Mavis,

    I will continue to post on Albanese and Setka because, far from being a done and dusted issue, it is still playing out through the national media and will continue to play out for months.

    It did not need to happen and at a time when the Morrison government cup overflows with corruption and incompetence the focus remains on labor and unions.

    We all have opinions and that is good. My opinion is that the Setka issue and its inept handling by Albanese will continue to have consequences for labor and the broader labour movement at a time when Morrison and business groups are pushing ahead to change the IR system in this country and further neuter unions. This is a very important issue for me so I make no apologies for commenting on what I consider to be any action that I believe, in my opinion, helps the further destruction of organised labour in Australia.

    If you find my future posts boring then simply ignore them. Be assured I will not be upset.

  6. Hopefully Tim Paine will see the writing on the wall and quietly retire after the Ashes having enjoyed a distinguished career .

    Not in a huff like Healy did when Gilchrist was on his toes

  7. doyley

    Well said. That’s where I am coming from too. This would be obvious to most except for Cat who seems to be obsessed with me and spends so much time impugning me with malicious intent.

  8. BK
    “Surely Alex Carey must go into the Test side.”
    Not with the outstanding batting quality of Maxwell, Handscombe and the Marsh boys to pick ahead of him. 🙁

  9. There may not be a Dawn Patrol in the morning as I have just been called to roll the mobile catering unit to a major structure fire at Mount Pleasant.

  10. Dear doyley – the horse has bolted; Stetka won’t be a factor soon, Albanese having judged it politically sound to call him out for the thug he is, evidenced, inter alia, by his convictions for using a carriage service to harass. This man’s the awful face of unionism.

  11. Mavis

    The problem with the Setka issue is that Albo has now made himself personally responsible for not only the morals of union leaders but the morals of all members of the Labor party.

    A branch member’s been convicted of DV? Why hasn’t Albo asked for them to be thrown out?

    We’ve got a video tape of a union boss swearing at a building site. Is that language suitable for a member of the ALP?

    Hopefully it blows over and gets forgotten about, but as a can of worms it has huge potential.

  12. zoomster your dark obsession with Albo has now reached a tipping point. You can continue as an enemy of the party and risk expulsion or worse. Or you can get behind the leader of the ALP and drop this worrisome position you have adopted as a destabilising influence in the party.

  13. zoomster, I am aware that Albanese once made the unfortunate error of being abrupt with you, perhaps even rude, however, I am sure that if he knew what a powerful enemy he was making at the time he would not only have been more congenial he might have also allowed a selfie.

  14. …if I was obsessed with Albo, I’d be digging up obscure events he was involved with twenty years ago, and harping on about them endlessly without rhyme or reason. That’s what obsession looks like.

  15. Pegasus @ #1312 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 9:27 pm

    doyley

    Well said. That’s where I am coming from too. This would be obvious to most except for Cat who seems to be obsessed with me and spends so much time impugning me with malicious intent.

    I simply ask you questions that you refuse to answer. But hey, this is C@t is a bad person day, so go for it.

    No reflection on the number of free character assessments you provide for others if they question your intent though. That might exhibit strength of character.

  16. nath

    You know you’re being factually incorrect, because you know I value honesty.

    I also value politeness.

    You could try both, some time.

  17. There must be a psalm about the Green Valley. If there isn’t, someone should draft one. It should be a lamentation. About the lack of miracles. About no deliverance, or being returned to sender. Yea, verily, the Bob has led us into temptation. We shall not know the promised land. We are fi[u ked.

  18. A branch member’s been convicted of DV? Why hasn’t Albo asked for them to be thrown out?

    Hey look, a use for s44! It can be standing Labor policy that if you’ve been convicted of a crime eligible for a maximum sentence that would disqualify you under s44 then your party membership is automatically terminated.

  19. zoomster says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 10:02 pm

    …if I was obsessed with Albo, I’d be digging up obscure events he was involved with twenty years ago, and harping on about them endlessly without rhyme or reason. That’s what obsession looks like.
    ________________________
    There was nothing obscure about Shorten’s involvement in various deals with companies he negotiated with as head of the Victorian AWU. It was all quite blatant and it is only in recent years that many of these details have surfaced. If the ALP ever regains government he will be a senior minister and his conduct in those days will still be more relevant than ever.

  20. zoomster @ #1324 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 9:54 pm

    Mavis

    The problem with the Setka issue is that Albo has now made himself personally responsible for not only the morals of union leaders but the morals of all members of the Labor party.

    A branch member’s been convicted of DV? Why hasn’t Albo asked for them to be thrown out?

    We’ve got a video tape of a union boss swearing at a building site. Is that language suitable for a member of the ALP?

    Hopefully it blows over and gets forgotten about, but as a can of worms it has huge potential.

    Wow, that’s a very long bow to draw there, zoomster.

    You may not be obsessed with Albanese but you sure do seem to have a bee in your bonnet about him.

  21. zoomster:

    [‘Hopefully it blows over and gets forgotten about, but as a can of worms it has huge potential.’]

    I think it will blow over, Setka coming to the realisation that he’s doing damage to Labor’s cause. I confidently predict that in six months or so, we’ll be asking: who was that pissant (?) – a middle-aged man, who should get off the piss, and stop abusing those who are closest to him.

  22. It’s clear that the ALP needs a thorough clean-out of the Shortenite loyalists, the Shortcon’s if you will. They will continue to undermine, both in shadow cabinet and online.

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