Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

  1. nath says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 6:59 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 6:53 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 6:50 pm
    ___________________
    That’s why I think an orderly liquidation of the ALP in a mature and adult way makes the most sense! We can reboot politics in a contemporary and relevant way once this happens.
    ___________________
    perhaps also a Truth and Reconciliation Commission might be established too. Perhaps the Chiquita mushroom workers might be good enough to forgive Shorten for his role replacing them with a labour hire company. There will be many crimes that will need to be forgiven.
    ___________________
    Inspired. C@t could be hired to piece together shredded documents from Sussex Street and other ALP locales (provided they weren’t secreted for dirt files) to aid the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s very important work.

  2. …and why Lars is allowed to bang on with his totally boring obsession with C@ is a mystery too.

    It doesn’t contribute anything to the blog.

  3. Bellwether @ #1197 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 6:51 pm

    There is absolutely no clear pathway for Labor because of a misinformed and often ignorant electorate.

    Indeed. The “dumbing down” of Australia has been proceeding apace, most noticeably in the last decade or two. Some might say that Labor has been complicit in this, but I don’t think they have been doing it deliberately. They have been blindsided and suckered, just as we all have.

    You can see the consequences anywhere you look. We have a crap education system, a failing social security and health system, an environment that is quite literally disintegrating around us as we watch, no manufacturing base, and very little technological expertise left (except possibly in digging holes).

    I have not quite given up hope, but I must admit I am currently struggling see a way back from our current situation. An economic collapse that forces us to reconsider our priorities is about the best outcome we can hope for.

  4. This makes my blood boil.

    Ms Pru Goward, former NSW Liberal Minister, Howard protege de rigour, and of dubious propriety on the question of fiddling with facts, has come out with a Miss Goody Two Shoes Know It All preemptive blurt dismissing any merits in ‘Pill Testing’ while a very public and emotionally challenging coroner’s inquest into deaths at music festivals is underway, and therefore well in advance of any coronial recommendations.

    It is very Howardesq. Get your conservative views out loudly and early, and dress it up in the guise of what ‘the average Australian’ thinks and wants, or PLU as Ms Goward calls them – people like us.

    In the midst of a fairly jumbled barrage of all the dangers and why drugs are banned, she like most others fails to call for that which would benefit most to public health and safety – the banning of alcohol – but I’ll edit the verbiage down to her punch line:

    “Pill testing is a marginal, doubtful distraction” she trumpets from her pedestal of ignorance.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/pill-testing-is-a-doubtful-distraction-20190710-p525up.html

    For a very reasonable overview of the issue, here’s one (and there’s lots more) from the Royal Australasian College of GPs (Jan 2019):

    https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/professional/state-of-play-for-and-against-pill-testing

    Dr Hester Wilson, GP and Chair of the RACGP Specific Interests Addiction Medicine network … ‘Pill testing saves lives – that’s the bottom line,’ she told newsGP late last year.

    (And) former Commissioner of the Australian Federal Police, Mick Palmer, would like to see a change in drug policy. ‘When are we going to learn that threats and our current “Just Say No” campaign are not working? ‘Pill testing is not a silver bullet, but it’s a proven and positive way to help prevent this kind of tragedy, has majority support from Australians and must be at least trialled on a pilot basis.’

  5. Player One says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 7:18 pm
    _______________________
    Whoa! What a crazy post! I don’t think Australia is about to become Upper Volta. The ALP needs to get its act together or leave the scene. Think about dissolution and a Truth and Reconciliation Commission for healing makes a lot of sense!

  6. mundo:

    [‘I wonder if it’s because the federal parliamentary Labor party seems to have gone into hibernation….?’]

    It’s far too early in the cycle to get too excited. Further, I think Labor’s not yet over the defeat at the hands of a fundamentalist, who thinks it’s appropriate to wear his religion on his sleeves. It seems to me that it’s best to await the outcome of Carroll’s disastrous carriage of the election.

  7. Lars Von Trier @ #1211 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 7:24 pm

    Player One says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 7:18 pm
    _______________________
    Whoa! What a crazy post! I don’t think Australia is about to become Upper Volta. The ALP needs to get its act together or leave the scene. Think about dissolution and a Truth and Reconciliation Commission for healing makes a lot of sense!

    You are a troll and a fool.

  8. zoomster says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 7:09 pm

    nath

    Seriously, update your material. It’s getting old, and the obsession is starting to look a bit too creepy.
    ____________________________
    The Chiquita deal always stood out for me. Possibly because they were the most poorly paid of those Shorten ‘represented’. You should look into it zoomster, it’s got some fascinating elements in it.

  9. Itza

    The rossers a scaring the shit out of festival goers. The young ones have already told me how heavy handed they are. It’s all part of the plan to crush youth expression.

  10. Player One says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 7:30 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #1211 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 7:24 pm

    Player One says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 7:18 pm
    _______________________
    Whoa! What a crazy post! I don’t think Australia is about to become Upper Volta. The ALP needs to get its act together or leave the scene. Think about dissolution and a Truth and Reconciliation Commission for healing makes a lot of sense!
    You are a troll and a fool.
    _______________________
    and your just dull – in both senses of the word.

  11. It is very Howardesq. Get your conservative views out loudly and early, and dress it up in the guise of what ‘the average Australian’ thinks and wants, or PLU as Ms Goward calls them – people like us.

    Did she really use the term PLU to refer to people like us? That’s just a pathetic attempt at hipsterism.

  12. BW re Tricot – from the French “tricoter” to knit. However, also a name attributed to those who knitted while they watch people being taken from the tumbril and guillotined during the French Revolution. The name appealed to my whimsical side for watching people get the chop here on PB over the years.

  13. zoomster says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 7:36 pm

    nath

    Yeah, you’re obsessed.
    ___________________
    That’s just a pretty poor psychological ploy to distract from the real issues, putting it back on me rather than on what Littlefinger did back in the day. I’ve never run a faux union doing deals with companies which disadvantage union members.

  14. Player One:

    [‘You are a troll and a fool.’]

    Calling another a troll, a fool does nothing to add to the debate, even if his/her post indicates same.

  15. guytaur says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 12:10 pm
    Labor

    Listen to:

    Sir David Attenborough’s evidence in the UK Parliament’s Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee that Australia is run by a bunch of climate science deniers was clearly spot on #ClimateEmergency #auspol https://twitter.com/gpaddymanning/status/1149062588690358272

    Don’t listen to coal people.

    The Liberals lie about climate change so they can depict themselves as being willing to stand up for jobs. They are saying they will do ‘whatever it takes’ to create jobs. This is a very unequivocal position. There is no subtlety about it.

    The inverse position is that anyone who argues for the protection of the environment is arguing for the demolition of jobs. This is crude but effective.

    The Greens chime in of course, and echo the Liberals. They call for Labor to be more active on the environment and to sacrifice jobs if necessary. Essentially, nature is being used by the Liberals and the Greens to campaign against Labor.

    As a result, we are comprehensively fucked.

    If the Greens want action on climate change they had better start campaigning against the Liberals. This will never happen.

  16. Rex

    Well, let’s hear from Labor partisans some lines of attack.

    Short sharp catchy attack lines on the Govt’s ineptitude.

    Let’s hear them… !

    I’ve nailed you as an LNPer so I’m not interested in giving you anything. Oh, other than HOW CRAP IS THAT

  17. ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 7:46 pm

    No worries. We’ve still got Maxwell!’

    That thought fleetingly entered my mind and then exited again just as quickly.

  18. Setka

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-11/setka-returns-to-court-to-stop-labor-expulsion/11299078

    Federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s plan to expel controversial construction union boss John Setka from the Australian Labor Party next week has been thwarted in the Victorian Supreme Court.

    The battle, which has been described by national branch as “disruptive and detrimental” to the Labor party, could drag on for months, and the matter may end up in the High Court.

    This afternoon the ALP agreed to delay its plans while the Supreme Court considered an injunction request from Mr Setka, the CFMEU construction division secretary, to prevent his expulsion.

  19. Rexologically speaking, politics in Australia is dead. History has ended. Labor has never existed. Labor never will exist. The world is blue. It has always been blue. It always will be blue.

  20. BK says:

    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 7:42 pm
    Aussies 2/10 as Warner out.
    Goodnight nurse!

    Who does Australia think they are, India ?

  21. BK:

    With Warner gone, it’s basically up to Smith. I’m sure he’s up to the challenge(?). That said, Edgbaston’s not exactly a happy hunting ground for Oz. Never mind, we’ve still got an Aussie in the doubles at Wimbledon.

  22. It’s Time says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 7:51 pm

    zoomster @ #1208 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 7:17 pm

    …and why Lars is allowed to bang on with his totally boring obsession with C@ is a mystery too.

    It doesn’t contribute anything to the blog.

    Lars, C@t and Nath seem to be a threesome made for eachother.
    ___________________
    I think it would be a disaster. Threesome dynamics are complex, it requires the right balance of dominant and submissive personalities. I’m afraid in this case the threesome you have proposed might end up in a brawl.

  23. Telling voters incorrectly that they are misinformed and low-information and vote against their best interests is as good as calling them deplorable. Keep up the good work. The LNP thanks you all.

  24. If we lose another wicket, we have to protect Maxwell who can only really bat for ten overs before getting himself out. Handscome doesn’t look great.

  25. Re pill testing

    In line with having evidence-based policies, the Greens party advocacy for pill testing is well known.

    https://greens.org.au/campaigns/just-test-it

    Let’s get real about pills. The war on drugs has failed and, every year, young Australians lose their lives after taking dangerous pills. The reality is that people will always choose to use drugs – in fact, almost half of all adults have used pills or party drugs.

    The “tough on drugs” approach of Labor and Liberal governments causes enormous harm and wastes a massive amount of emergency service resources.

    Unlike the major parties, we see drug use as a health issue not a criminal issue, and that community based pill testing will save lives. We’ve seen this overseas and even at trials here in Australia, where the evidence shows that when people get better information about the potentially harmful ingredients in a pill, they’re far more likely to bin it.

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