Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.
To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.
Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.
Elsewhere in poll-dom:
• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.
• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.
An insider’s experience of Morrison’s church:
https://overland.org.au/2019/06/why-i-fear-scott-morrisons-pentecostalism/
Chrisken
Thank you for that link. Everyone should read it if they want to understand Morrison. Others may be taken in by the artificial bonhomie, but like the writer, I fear for the well-being of Australia. The push for more “religious toleration” is prejudice in another guise.
What’s Trump got to boast about? A “glorified seagull”. Ducks.
Coherence isn’t really Player One’s thing. She specialises in snark. Nobody better in that little league.
Just heard on the ABC News that the Government has the Senate numbers for its Budget vandalism.
This is so ludicrous it made me giggle.
No wonder the Radical Christians joined up with the Extreme Muslims around the country but especially in Western Sydney and voted en masse for Morrison. The one is just as bad as the other!
Anyway, I don’t have to remind anyone of the hypocrisy of those people. I don’t have enough time, nor do I want to waste my time detailing how many times the leaders of those groups have been caught out doing exactly what they tell their followers not to do.
Sanity prevails in Alabama. This time.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/07/03/prosecutor-drops-case-against-woman-charged-with-manslaughter-after-her-baby-was-shot-womb/?utm_term=.d3f3aff010dc
Yes, ‘fess, the unintended consequences of being too overtly religious and making laws that just serve to highlight what a mean, inhumane and hypocritical crock it all is.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/02/the-rba-cuts-interest-rates-again-how-low-will-they-go#comment-130721860
This article would be stronger if it accurately described how the Australian Government’s finances work.
As a currency issuing government that allows its currency to float in foreign exchange markets, the Australian Government does not have a budget constraint or a financial constraint when it makes payments in its own currency.
The Australian Government is constrained by the availability of real resources that are for sale in its own currency.
The Australian Government ALWAYS spends by keystroking numbers into Exchange Settlement Accounts at the central bank. That is the only way that the government spends (well, occasionally it still issues cheques but that practice is becoming uncommon).
The Australian Government does not need to issue debt to accompany a deficit. Its debt issuance is a voluntary act that provides the non-government sector with a zero risk interest-bearing asset.
The Australian Government should not target any particular fiscal balance. It should target goals that enhance societal wellbeing. It should target genuine full employment with stable prices and sustainable resource use.
According to economist Steven Hail of the University of Adelaide, right now genuine full employment with stable prices would require the government to run a fiscal deficit of $50 billion or $60 billion per year.
It is therefore extremely damaging for the government to be targeting a fiscal surplus. A federal government surplus is a non-government deficit. Under current conditions a federal government surplus would worsen the problems of unemployment, under-employment, precarious employment, and household debt.
A federal government surplus would only be useful if we had a roaring current account surplus that was overheating our domestic private sector. In that circumstance, a federal government surplus would cool down the domestic private sector and prevent accelerating inflation. But we have a current account deficit. A current account deficit is a net demand drain out of the domestic private sector.
Tax receipts don’t fund anything. When the government taxes it is deleting currency out of existence.
Taxation is extremely important because it generates demand for the government’s currency. It controls inflation. It influences the distribution of wealth and income. It influences behaviours via incentives and disincentives.
Taxation creates the fiscal space for the government to spend in a non-inflationary manner.
But taxation does not actually fund the federal government.
The federal government is the monopoly issuer of the Australian dollar.
And what are we about to get in Australia? A ‘Religious Freedom’ Bill. I can only hope that Kristina Keneally tempers its more radical aspects. She may also believe but she isn’t brainwashed to the reality that not everyone is equally like-minded, nor that it is the ‘correct way’.
Nicholas,
Succinctness is your friend.
At this time of the morning I see one of your dense screeds and just think how reading it will give me a headache!
Maybe that makes me stupid, I’m sure my detractors will jump onto that bandwagon, but I’m not, I just think that you are better off being brief. 🙂
C@t:
You could be forgiven for thinking Alabama has more in common with some repressive muslim nations than it does Western style secular democracies.
On the contrary, Catmomma… the nicholas piece was well written, and the soul of brevity in explaining a complex issue. Rather than just saying that ‘blind adherence to surpluses is bad’… it provides good reasons for that. Surely that is exactly what you want on a site like this.
A fantastic take down of Trump’s July 4th plans.
…
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/trumps-fourth-of-july-is-a-cheap-version-of-patriotism/593248/
Lambie is acting like a novice. How can she trust the Coal?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/07/03/tax-cuts-jacqui-lambi/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190704
Confessions @ #1007 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 7:25 am
Same-same. But just with prettier dresses for the ladies with the Christians.
Dyspnoeia @ #1008 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 7:29 am
I’m not saying it wasn’t well written, just that he could be more succinct. Maybe, unlike you, I know that it will be the first of many, many, many similar contributions during the day and that, for the benefit of Nicholas mainly, so that he does get read, it would be better if his main thrust was summarised. People haven’t got all day to read his stuff like he has to write it.
They’ve already won, then. I don’t think Lambie is a smart negotiator.
‘fess,
I bet Nepotism Ken and Barbie are front and centre on the viewing dias too.
“Same-same. But just with prettier dresses for the ladies with the Christians.”
I think that all fanatics are basically the same, just fanatical about different things. It’s probably easier to convert a fundamentalist of one faith to a fundamentalist of another than to a moderate version of their own faith.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
John Hewson says Australia has a unique opportunity for an infrastructure revolution.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-s-unique-opportunity-for-an-infrastructure-revolution-20190703-p523n2.html
The Grattan Institute hopes the Treasurer is doing a lot more thinking behind closed doors than his public statements suggest. It outlines a number of initiatives the government should strongly consider.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/economy-needs-a-boost-without-an-expensive-hangover-20190703-p523ml.html
Meanwhile in Victoria households are staying away from cafes and restaurants, taking it easy on the takeaway and cutting back on household goods, Treasury has warned, putting the brakes on economy.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victorian-shoppers-keep-their-cards-in-their-wallets-as-economy-falters-20190703-p523ul.html
Michelle Grattan says Lambie is playing the Harradine game.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-jacqui-lambie-plays-the-harradine-game-119824
The federal government’s powerful expenditure review committee will be asked to consider whether to increase fortnightly payments for almost 1 million Australian pensioners amid fears long-term savers are being punished by a new wave of interest rate cuts.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/government-considers-deeming-rate-change-following-interest-rate-cuts-20190703-p523rr.html
Jennifer Duke reports that NBN has moved to quash a backlash after it floated the prospect of a levy on internet companies to provide video streaming on services like Netflix or Stan
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/open-to-ideas-nbn-denies-angling-for-a-netflix-tax-20190703-p523wk.html
Earth to Shane Wright! New car sales were going well south well before the election.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-new-indicator-that-tells-us-something-is-deeply-wrong-with-the-economy-20190703-p523nx.html
AAP reports that the Morrison government has refused to guarantee journalists raided by police last month will be immune from prosecution. Media bosses sought the assurances during a meeting with Attorney-General Christian Porter and Communications Minister Paul Fletcher on Wednesday but were rebuffed.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6253968/no-immunity-for-raided-journalists/?cs=14329
Elizabeth Knight has a look at what’s behind Woolies’ move to ditch pubs, booze and pokies.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/dry-july-woolworths-to-ditch-pokies-pubs-and-booze-20190703-p523oh.html
Equality advocates say planned religious freedom laws could erode existing rights and even trigger High Court challenges to state anti-discrimination laws.
https://outline.com/BMHs5B
No end is in sight for the debate about Israel Folau’s right to promote his fundamentalist Christian ideas writes Dr Lee Duffield.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/israel-folau-contract-law-and-discrimination,12862
The fight for religious freedoms has hit Australian classrooms as calls mount to ban church-based instruction in all state schools. The Australian Education Union has backed calls from Queensland to eliminate scripture lessons from public primary schools.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/03/church-gospel-public-schools/
Academic Dennis Muller opines that the parliamentary press freedom inquiry is akin to letting the fox guard the henhouse.
https://theconversation.com/parliamentary-press-freedom-inquiry-letting-the-fox-guard-the-henhouse-119820
Christopher Knaus reports that the aid sector is concerned about the rise of the private contractor , Palladium, employing Julie Bishop.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/04/palladium-aid-sector-concerned-about-rise-of-private-contractor-employing-julie-bishop
And Labor will move a motion calling on Scott Morrison to take appropriate action against Christopher Pyne and Julie Bishop for taking commercial appointments immediately after leaving politics.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/04/labor-to-call-on-pm-to-take-action-against-pyne-and-bishop-over-new-business-roles
Michelle Pini writs that in the days before the 2018 Federal Election, Christopher Pyne and Julie Bishop resigned. The day after ‒ or near enough ‒ both accepted roles at firms whose nests they had helped to feather.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-coalition-have-a-go–pay-me-as-i-go,12866
Agriculture Minister Bridget McKenzie charged taxpayers more than $500,000 to relocate her electorate office 300 kilometres from Bendigo to Wodonga before the election.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/07/04/bridget-mckenzie-wodonga-cost/
Unions are struggling to retain memberships while the workplace environment adapts to future technology, writes Simone Anon.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-future-of-work-unions-be-ready,12852
Stephen Bartholomeusz says that IMF chief Christine Lagarde is the surprise choice to lead the ECB – and Trump will not be happy.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/lagarde-to-inherit-an-ailing-eurozone-and-an-unhappy-trump-20190703-p523pt.html
The latest cut in interest rates has fanned investors’ fears that bank profit margins will be crunched, writes Clancy Yeates.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/i-think-they-will-feel-the-squeeze-rate-cut-sparks-margin-fears-20190703-p523td.html
And Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar will ask financial regulators to review bank lending restrictions to help ease a credit squeeze and ‘get credit flowing’.
https://outline.com/czp56C
Professor Ross Garnaut warns Australia will be hit far worse from a trade war than expected with the $60 billion agricultural sector among the most exposed by the prospect of a global recession.
https://outline.com/CCADFD
Facebook’s launch of its new cryptocurrency, Libra, might have given US lawmakers and financial regulators a fit of the collywobbles, but what’s in it for the consumer? Kim Wingerei checks out Libra’s potential.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/facebooks-libra-a-public-good-or-a-swiss-based-financial-system-too-big-to-fail/
Helen Caldicott tells us that having seen the TV series, we should now understand that the Chernobyl catastrophe is far from over.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/you-ve-seen-the-tv-series-now-understand-the-chernobyl-catastrophe-is-far-from-over-20190625-p5217u.html
According to The London Telegraph the unrest in Hong Kong over the past month has presented the biggest challenge to the Chinese President’s authority yet.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/xi-walks-political-tightrope-as-mass-protests-put-his-power-in-doubt-20190703-p523o9.html
John Crace tells us how the malfunctioning (Theresa) Maybot is raging against the dying of the light.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/03/malfunctioning-maybot-rages-against-the-dying-of-the-light
Trump is billing his big July 4th production as a tribute to the American armed forces. Not everyone agrees says Reuters.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/with-tanks-ready-to-roll-donald-trump-s-july-4th-parade-divides-us-20190704-p523xp.html
This Sydney lawyer has earned nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/bassam-hamzy-sydney-lawyer-held-on-drug-charges-in-probe-into-teen-s-death-20190703-p523lu.html
Cartoon Corner
David Pope is on fire with this one!
David Rowe and a worried RBA.
From Matt Golding.
Andrew Dyson and the ad man.
Matt Davidson gets it right.
From Mark David.
Zanetti homes in on Mesma.
Gen Le Lievre – here we go again!
Jon Kudelka and Lambie’s return to the Senate.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1aa248f6b0587f4bbb3a98a62f47843e?width=1024
From the US
Steve777 @ #1015 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 7:51 am
Or to having no faith at all any more.
Morning all
Much thanks BK for today’s reports.
Lambie, as predicted, is following Harradine’s method of operation. I guess she can’t be blamed, but does the deal include her supporting the repeal of the Medivac legislation? If it does, she stands condemned.
C@t:
The Dictator Checklist via Bill Maher. How does Trump compare?
– Putting your name on buildings. Check.
– Appointing family members to key govt positions. Check.
– Your political rallies are scary, attended by people who think you’re a demi-god. Check.
– You threaten to lock up your political opponents. Check.
– Your best buds are other authoritarian dictators. Check.
– You semi joke about being President for life. Check.
– A major news network reports about you like it’s state-controlled TV. Check.
– You use your elected office for personal profit. Check.
– You have military parades to celebrate national days. Check.
lizzie says:
Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 6:50 am
The Divinyls addressed this many years ago.
nath makes a slur about me. I call him out on it. We then have half a day where he demands stat decs, people’s phone numbers, etc etc before he’ll retract. Finally (without that palaver) he retracts (one assumes he checked the actual comments I made).
…and now he repeats the slur.
Does the young man have to meet the same standards? And if so, isn’t lying a sin, too?
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 7:42 am
Dyspnoeia @ #1008 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 7:29 am
On the contrary, Catmomma… the nicholas piece was well written, and the soul of brevity in explaining a complex issue. Rather than just saying that ‘blind adherence to surpluses is bad’… it provides good reasons for that. Surely that is exactly what you want on a site like this.
I’m not saying it wasn’t well written, just that he could be more succinct. Maybe, unlike you, I know that it will be the first of many, many, many similar contributions during the day and that, for the benefit of Nicholas mainly, so that he does get read, it would be better if his main thrust was summarised. People haven’t got all day to read his stuff like he has to write it.
____________________________________
That’s actually really, really, really funny coming from you – complaining about many, many,many similar contributions from one poster.
Magnificent!
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 7:38 am
You need to get out more, some of the robes and scarves worn by Muslim women are stunning.
Morning all. Thanks BK. So Lambie joined Labor caved on the tax cut that will succour the rich and sink the rest of us. Not waiting to get Tasmanian debt relief in writing first was about as smart as Meg Lees passing the GST on Howard’s promise of other tax reform.
The tax cuts are obviously unaffordable, so why did they pass so easily? Sometimes we look for too complicated explanations. I suspect it is just most of parliament voting for their personal self interest.
Well, not surprisingly, the coalition now has the support needed to pass the tax cuts, in entirety:
Why this is Labor’s fault is totally beyond me!
On religious freedom, I am wondering if the catholic church will seek to have priests molesting children declared legal? Its part of their religious tradition, and would save them a lot of money in future.
The bottom line is Labor lost the election. The HOR and senate do not have a Labor majority. Tax cuts were always going to pass with the numbers as they are now. People need to get used to it.
Socrates
This religious freedom thingy will become more and more absurd by the day.
Victoria
But I do feel that the CA and Lambie have not boxed clever.
Lars Von Trier @ #1024 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 8:20 am
This is exactly what I expected from a mendacious malcontent like you. I’m trying to help the guy get all his contributions read by all people, especially the time poor, and all you can do is see an opening to make it all about me. Get help, LVT, before your twisted bitterness burns your heart and soul to a crisp.
Btw, how’s that accusation of vote rigging the NSW Labor leadership ballot by the ‘Right Wing’ unions going? Do you actually have any proof? I doubt it. Your modus operandi suggests you just like heaping unsubstantiated shit on Labor and their supporters like me. It’s actually you who is an embarrassment to this blog with such tawdry behaviour.
And so say all of us.
This morning’s interview with Jacqui Lambie on ABC RN Breakfast. Near the end she was also asked about Medevac.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/government-tax-cut-to-pass-with-promise-of-tasmanian-debt-relief/11276998
Socrates,
Are you sure Labor have caved in on Stage 3 ofd the tax cuts in the senate?
After reading Pollbludger and twitter I was convinced this was the case, and asked my OH whether this was the end of the Labor party. He then queried my info, and he showed me the actual new articles – not once did the ALP say they were caving in.
Maybe they will, but after a comprehensive search, I can find no evidence that this is the position the ALP are actually taking.
I feel like I got sucked in by the Pollbludger and Twitter outrage machine, and did not actually check what Labor was actually saying about their stance on this.
Socrates,
Labor were the only party that proposed Amendments to the Tax Cuts Bill in the parliament and you seem to be ignoring that point. But cut to an abuse Labor chase if you want to. Everyone else does. It’s so easy to kick a dog when it’s down. Makes you feel more of a man to not do nuance, eh?
Lizzie
I didnt have any expectation that Lambie or CA would do any differently in this space
Pegasus says:
Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 8:36 am
Yes, and …?
I am convinced that John Hewson was never a very good fit for the Libs. He was too intelligent/theoretical, and not ruthless enough. Now his value to us is in being free to criticise!
In that case did Labor box clever by waving the bill through the HoR yesterday?
Why the pathetic stunt re amendment to change the title of the bill? If the Greens had attempted to do that the howls of outrage on here would have been loud and sustained.
Victoria
So frustrating. CA just wanted to make a splash with their “please bring prices down”. And I thought that Lambie would be tougher.
Speaking of saving money, there really is a showdown looming for the government on funding roads versus public transport. Rising real costs of land and tunnelling has meant that urban freeway projects are increasingly uneconomic. This has been noted by both IA and even the NZTA. Yet thanks to the lobbying of road agencies, road constructors, and Transurban, we still spend more building them (in % GDP terms) than any other country in the OECD. They do not generate many jobs any more either, maybe a few hundred for a billion dollar project.
We really should be building more urban heavy and light rail projects, and safety improvements like the Swedish vision zero program. This would not require increased funding, just reallocation of existing budgets. Even NSW State Liberals want this to happen. Yet our ideological PM won’t hear of it. Politically this is a mistake. The recently opened Sydney NW Metro now carries 65,000 people/day.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nsw-urges-federal-government-to-fund-metro-to-boost-economy-20190703-p523vh.html
zoomster,
nath seems to be a professional provocateur. The blog seems to have attracted a few of them of late. And they are trained to exhaustively, for you, stand their ground, and waste your time, day in and day out until you eventually give in to them. Which they take as ‘proof’ that they were right all along.
And then they just turn around and do it all again, even if you have provided conclusive, real, proof that they were lying all along, as you say.
The pity is that there is so much dirty money sloshing around the world right now that people like that can be paid to do what they do in order to wear down the resistance of people like you and me and others of good intentions here.
Don’t give up. Keep fighting them. Though I know you always will. 🙂