Foreign affairs and Senate preferences

A comprehensive new survey on attitudes to foreign affairs, and deeper-than-ever dive into Senate voting and the preference question.

We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.

The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.

However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.

Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.

Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:

• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.

• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.

• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.

• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.

• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.

The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.

The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:

This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).

This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,777 comments on “Foreign affairs and Senate preferences”

Comments Page 20 of 36
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  4. “This is being used as a reason to discount all race, gender, feminist and anything they call ‘grievance studies’ academic areas.”
    No it’s not. It’s demonstrating the lack of academic rigour in many sociological journals which can’t distinguish between a joke paper and a real one.

  5. How stupid are the regional voters who voted for the coal-loving Nationals at the same time as they are being destroyed by the worst ever drought?
    How stupid is that?

  7. Boerwar
    I could almost feel sorry for them but then I see who they vote for come hell or high water and come over all Nelson Muntz.

    .
    .
    MAGAZINE
    A moonscape, with fences
    They have just weeks’ worth of water left, but that’s not the only frightening thing happening in these country towns. It’s now so dry the ground has begun to combust.

    By GREG BEARUP
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/weekend-australian-magazine/country-towns-face-water-shortage-crisis/news-story/c18f2087a26ddbea32ac0ec0711850c8

  9. BW
    As a short term solution, it’s very sound. It’s not a good long term solution but humans favour immediate gains.

  10. I am shocked by the lack of Bible study on this site.
    For the 10th time Folau is a C.H.R.I.S.T.I.A.N not a J.E.W.
    He was not quoting Leviticus and he is exempt from much Mosaic law.
    He was quoting Paul’s First Letter to the Corinthians:
    6:9-11
    Know ye not that the unrighteous shall not inherit the kingdom of God? Be not deceived: neither fornicators, nor idolaters, nor adulterers, nor effeminate, nor abusers of themselves with mankind, Nor thieves, nor covetous, nor drunkards, nor revilers, nor extortioners, shall inherit the kingdom of God. And such were some of you: but ye are washed, but ye are sanctified, but ye are justified in the name of the Lord Jesus, and by the Spirit of our God.

    Can we stop making smart arsed ill-informed comments about Leviticus?

  18. And the loss of breeding stock is getting critical. Generations of breeding lines which can’t be recovered.

    Cue Briefly.

  21. O C

    As a quick straw poll of PB would probably find that the majority profess atheism, I doubt that Bible study comes top of their talents.

  23. Peter Hannam@p_hannam
    3h3 hours ago

    Missing from the coverage of the NSW Nationals conference on Friday (ICIMI) was the fact delegates voted DOWN a recognition that manmade climate change was underway, and BACKED almost unanimously a call to abolish the Climate Change Fund. #nswpol

  24. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 1:33 pm

    taylormade @ #967 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    Guyra, Tenterfield, Walgett, Orange, Tamworth, Dubbo, Bourke, Louth, Armidale, Menindee.

    Dry towns?

    Certainly not the New England ones.

    Barnaby would never stand living in a dry zone.

  25. Lizzie
    That is my point
    If we are debating Folau we need to be factual and know what he said and in what context. To mis-quote him does not help.

    I think there are 3 options in relation to scripture in the 21st Century:
    a. Take the NT at face value as Folau and fundamentalists do
    b. Be Christian-Lite and cherry pick what you like – plenty of these in the main-stream churches

    or c. – the only sane approach – be an atheist

  27. Barney in Makassar @ #973 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 1:47 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 1:33 pm

    taylormade @ #967 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    Guyra, Tenterfield, Walgett, Orange, Tamworth, Dubbo, Bourke, Louth, Armidale, Menindee.

    Dry towns?

    Certainly not the New England ones.

    Barnaby would never stand living in a dry zone.

    Lol. 🙂

  30. Re weather and drought, this Winter in NSW, high pressure, Easterlies and Southerlies have been dominant. This pattern can dump tons of rain on the coastal strip but it barely penetrates to Sydney’s Western suburbs, let alone to where it’s needed. What were the seasonal Winter Westerlies, with their cold fronts, which normally bring rain to the inland, are mostly being steered South of NSW and often South of the continent.

  31. To help you decide if you are a “Greenie”or not:

    Shaun Fisher insisted he is not a greenie.
    “No, of course not!” he said.
    “I kill fish, I eat ’em, I do all that kind of stuff. Definitely not a greenie, no.”

    Exerpt is from RN’s “Country Breakfast”program this morning, looking at attitudes to solar power and coal mining in part of the Bowen Basin.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-04/meet-the-queenslanders-changing-the-energy-mix/11173962

  32. Certainly not the New England ones.

    Barnaby would never stand living in a dry zone.

    When you’re a townie like Barnaby you are relatively sheltered from the realities of drought.

  33. Out in the sheep grazing area of the Adelaide Hills it is green but the winter grass is short. They are worried about the limited rain this season – calling it a ‘wet drought’.

    It is hard to keep a straight face while biting ones tongue.

  34. NSW ALP leadership vote:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-mps-clash-in-front-of-media-as-officials-start-counting-votes-20190629-p522hs.html

    The ballot for the NSW Labor leadership has erupted in drama, with one MP accusing another of “standing over” a female colleague as the vote was underway in the party caucus room.
    :::
    Ms McKay entered the caucus room accompanied by 19 MPs, while Mr Minns had 13 MPs in his support group.

    Labor is expected to announce the new NSW leader in a press conference at 4pm.

    Sources from both camps say Ms McKay has likely won the caucus vote.
    :::
    While Labor’s leadership ballot is technically a secret ballot, pairing arrangements are common among members of Labor’s right faction, to which all three MPs belong.

    MPs who agree to pair show each other their ballots as a way of verifying who each other voted for.
    :::
    Labor officials and scrutineers have started counting around 11,000 rank-and-file ballots.

    After the members’ votes have been counted, the votes of Labor’s 50 MPs will be counted. The results of both ballots will be given a 50 per cent weighting in the outcome.

  35. I find this ridiculous.

    https://www.nambuccaguardian.com.au/story/6246568/learn-about-god-or-sit-outside-in-the-cold-at-nambucca-high/?cs=736

    When the parent asked the school earlier this year why students could not instead make use of the library during this period, they were told that it would “give those students an unfair advantage” over the ones participating in SRE, and that other classes were often using the library at the time.

    Until this year SRE or ‘scripture’ was mandatory in NSW unless a student decided to opt out, and those who do are still not allowed to participate in any formal lessons.

  36. Tim Soutphommasane on freedom of speech

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/let-me-speak-freely-our-freedom-of-speech-crisis-is-culture-warriors-codswallop-20190628-p5227g.html

    Many of us had hoped, of course, that the May federal election would have reset the political debate. That it would have helped put a close to the old, tired ideological contests that have marked the past six years.

    That still seems to be some way off. The Morrison government has yet to find for itself an agenda beyond its tax cuts. It seems content to focus the post-election attention on a Labor opposition still grappling with what it stands for. This leaves a vacuum that culture warriors are only too happy to fill.
    :::
    On each, the approach by culture warriors has been predictable. Find an incident. Turn it into a cause celebre. Confect outrage. Amplify and repeat for effect.
    :::
    Hypocrisy is never far away. When it involves free speech, culture warriors on the right aren’t afraid to invoke victimhood when it suits them. It’s all part of a majoritarian identity politics – one based on race and religion, and on sex and sexuality – aimed at reinforcing a hierarchy of voice and position. It’s no accident the demands for more free speech tend to come not from those lacking power, but those who fear the erosion of their power.

    We can expect to see more iterations of these battles, especially in the realms of popular culture. It has become part of the contemporary conservative mindset to believe that if you want political power, you must first change the culture – that “politics is downstream from culture”.

    This helps explain why political battles are now inevitably cultural ones. Why our political contests are becoming increasingly defined in terms of values. This is what it really means to live in an age of identity politics.

  38. Helen Haines, the new MP for Indi and what she hopes to achieve

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/29/kingmaker-or-not-the-new-member-for-indi-is-determined-to-shift-the-dial-in-canberra

    She says people who think that concern about global warming is a niche issue, or an obsession of unrepresentative post-materialist progressives, need to visit her local community. “If you think that climate politics belongs outside of conservatism, I would say have a look at Indi.

  40. ItzaDream @ #944 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 12:34 pm

    Demand for the Tesla 3 is huge. They are making 1,000 a day. A day!, with back orders in the order of 300,000.

    The backlog of orders is largely because of their failure to deliver on time. How long overdue are they now? Is it three years or four?

    Re pricing:

    US35K is Au50k

    Add shipping costs, import tariffs and taxes,

    Which is true of all Australian cars these days, of course.

    Including cars costing way under $20k, landed and taxed.

    Tesla was trying to break its “expensive toy” image with the Tesla 3. Clearly, it has failed to do so, and so now it is re-positioning it to be considered a luxury car – at least in “gullible” markets like Australia. Hence the price comparisons with Mercedes.

    Don’t get me wrong – I am all in favour of electric cars, and would buy one now if the type of vehicle I needed was available (it isn’t). But when I can buy an electric vehicle, it will probably not be a Tesla 🙁

  41. BK

    ♫Be it ever so ♪ humble
    ♪There’s no ♫ place like ♪ home.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WJqdTX2lTs

    Should anybody watch this. I can do anything the extremely talented gentleman on the left is doing (except play the guitar).

    **************************************************
    Followed by
    JUDY COLLINS, Kingston Trio, Mary Travers – “All My LIfe’s A Circle” 1982

  42. If you think that climate politics belongs outside of conservatism, I would say have a look at Indi.

    Interested in your take Peg.

    Environmentalism was often (and still is in some places) a significant part of conservatist values.

    How did environmentalism get caught up in the left-right struggle? Why wouldnt a conservative environmentalist, seeing how destructive their party of choice has become to the environment, consider voting for a left of centre party that has high environmental ideals? Why the backlash from regional conservatives against centrist conservatives and environmentally conscious peeps like Windsor and Oakshott that seems to continue to this day?

  43. Diogenes @ #954 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    “This is being used as a reason to discount all race, gender, feminist and anything they call ‘grievance studies’ academic areas.”
    No it’s not. It’s demonstrating the lack of academic rigour in many sociological journals which can’t distinguish between a joke paper and a real one.

    I believe there are many “fake” academic journals around now – on just about any subject – that will publish just about anything … for a fee. I believe some will even organize seminars and do “peer” reviews for you. All of which must be paid for, of course.

    It is the academic equivalent of “vanity publishing”.

    I am sure some can be found who would even be willing to publish papers from the Ramsay Centre 🙁

  44. Voltaire is allegedly an example of an atheist-lite
    On his death bed a priest he was considering baptism. His answer to the question “Do you renounce Satan and all his works?” was “This is not the time to be making enemies”

    (Some say this was Wilde, but Oscar was well and truly out of it by the time the priests descended. I guess Izzy might consider him one Homosexual who made it to Heaven)

  47. Simon Katich:

    How did environmentalism get caught up in the left-right struggle?

    That’s easy – when it became clear that it involves significant collective-action problems. The ‘right’ is inherently suspicous that there are any collective-action problems, short of total war.

    Why the backlash from regional conservatives against centrist conservatives and environmentally conscious peeps like Windsor and Oakshott that seems to continue to this day?

    Because environmentalism is no longer debatable policy but contested ground on the culture-war battlefield.

  48. Player one
    When it comes to Tesla and EV, considering the problems they have had and the competition working away on their own EV’s, I doubt Tesla will come out on top, not to say they will disappear but I would rate the odds of Merc, GM or BMW delivering better models than Tesla in the longer term.

  49. The Coalition government does absolutely nothing correctly, except win elections:

    It seems like an obvious thing for a national disability program: don’t send letters to blind Australians in a format they cannot read.

    But since the national disability insurance scheme began its rollout, blind and vision impaired participants have received vital correspondence – such as their support plans – in the form of regular letters, or as PDFs that do not accomodate a screen reader.

    “The plans were simply being sent to people through the MyGov portal as a secure PDF file,” the acting chief executive at Blind Citizens Australia, Rikki Chaplin, told Guardian Australia.

    “Screen readers cannot read secure PDF files so some people were receiving print copies of plans, and they were braille readers. Naturally, they can’t read those.”

    NDIS fraud allegations surge as 25 operators kicked off scheme
    Read more
    The problem is particularly severe for those who self-manage their support plans.

    A key tenet of the NDIS is that it is intended to help participants with their independence; yet Chaplin said people were waiting from a “few months to a year” to get an accessible version of their plan.

    “By that time the plan [might] have expired,” he said. “They might have gone through it with the support co-ordinator, but if you’re self-managing a plan you need to be able to look at how much money you’ve got left.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/29/ndis-sent-letters-to-vision-impaired-and-blind-people-in-format-they-could-not-read

  50. Mexicanbeemer @ #997 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 2:48 pm

    Player one
    When it comes to Tesla and EV, considering the problems they have had and the competition working away on their own EV’s, I doubt Tesla will come out on top, not to say they will disappear but I would rate the odds of Merc, GM or BMW delivering better models than Tesla in the longer term.

    A bit like Afterpay getting gazumped by Visa.

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