We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.
The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.
However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.
Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.
Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:
• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.
• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.
• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.
• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.
• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.
The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.
The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:
This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).
This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.
Simon² Katich® @ #416 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 2:43 pm
Me too ❗
Tesla’s really a battery company anyway, it’s just that some of their batteries are sold to consumers with wheels and a motor attached.
“How did environmentalism get caught up in the left-right struggle? “
Because the interests represented by “Conservative” parties, Big Money, would rather pump their waste into the air or dump it in the nearest body of water, bulldose forests for logs, strip the land to get at the minerals. They don’t want to spend time or money safeguarding the environment – it cuts into profits.
In news that surprises nobody in NSW Labor, Tania Mihailuk is being a drama queen. 😆
“Player one
When it comes to Tesla and EV, considering the problems they have had and the competition working away on their own EV’s, I doubt Tesla will come out on top, not to say they will disappear but I would rate the odds of Merc, GM or BMW delivering better models than Tesla in the longer term.”
_____________
I’m not so sure about that P1. Tesla have a 15 year head start in EV production techniques. Have have had problems, no doubt – but their whole product is so far ahead of what the traditional big car manufactures are doing, its astonishing. Elon just needs to shut his mouth and appoint an independent COO to turn a reliable profit: the next 12 months will be critical. Tesla has no ambition to make genuinely cheap EVs for the masses: Musk wants to corner the upper end of the middle class with ‘affordable’ BMW-Mercedes beaters: the Model 3 and next year’s Model Y SUV cross over should do that admirably.
“Tesla’s really a battery company anyway, it’s just that some of their batteries are sold to consumers with wheels and a motor attached.”
A quick drive in a Tesla S gives the lie to that. Simply astonishing.
Your statement is like saying that SpaceX is just a kerosene propulsion company. …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/28/greens-leadership-less-than-a-third-of-partys-members-happy-with-selection-process
Would Di Natale still be leader if ordinary members had a say in the leadership? Otherwise what would be the motivation to change.
The NDIS will become a case study in how not to start a new entity.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1007 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 3:19 pm
Not sure of the background here, but NDIS is another great idea wrecked by Abbott and Co. Implementation greatly changed and massively underfunded. In that aspect yes potentially a good case study.
Victoria urged to lower speed limits as road death toll jumps 50%
State government’s new road safety office is likely to implement some measures for country roads
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/29/victoria-urged-to-lower-speed-limits-as-road-death-toll-jumps-50
Would this increase in road toll have anything to do with the population increase and older cars being driven.. I can’t say I would be a fan of lowering speed limits
Mexican:
What laughtong said. Twas Abbott and co who shafted the NDIS.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 3:19 pm
The NDIS will become a case study in how not to start a new entity.
—–
Probably the whole ATM government is a case study for implementing disaster capitalism in a once progressive democracy
OC
‘a. Take the NT at face value as Folau and fundamentalists do..’
The NT is split into two parts. The first, the Gospels, is based on the life and sayings of Jesus. The second part, Acts, is based on What Happened Afterwards.
There is an a (i) option, which is to take the Gospels on face value and regard Acts in much the same way as the OT – mainly, containing some information which might be useful but isn’t the same as The Word of God.*
*I am an atheist.
billie says:
Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 3:28 pm
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 3:19 pm
The NDIS will become a case study in how not to start a new entity.
—–
Probably the whole ATM government is a case study for implementing disaster capitalism in a once progressive democracy
—————
Not sure capitalism has anything to do with sending letters to blind people in the wrong format. I think it says more about poorly designed processes and the hiring of the wrong people. As others note the NDIS has been poorly managed since 2013 and that is why its worthy of becoming a case study on how not to manage something.
Confessions @ #1006 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 3:14 pm
Gotta love the paragons of democratic virtue, The Greens. 🙂
Billie
The problem is there are many people on the road that probably shouldn’t be.
Kamala Harris appears to have at least part of one shoe in the door:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/gop-revels-in-biden-s-debate-troubles-see-new-threat-in-kamala-harris-20190629-p522in.html
C@t:
I’m thinking if the Greens ever did decide to become democratic, they’d have to go with direct election in order to give themselves an angle to attack Labor’s processes and out-smug the ALP.
I’m happy with people taking on St Paul as well, so long at the wives are obedient and accept correction and discipline like slaves. If you are just picking and choosing your bits of St Paul, what you are really doing is just accepting a cultural norm and you are full of it.
WWP
The difference is degree of importance – for example, if you regard something St Paul said as more important than something Christ (allegedly) said, then you’re doing it wrong.
My cult taught me that all scripture is inspired by God and equal, you aren’t supposed to pick and choose bits.
Confessions @ #1018 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 3:57 pm
As that will always be their causus belli with Labor, it’s a distinct possibility. 😆
We will fight them in the cafes!
We will barricade ourselves inside the Organic Produce market and never surrender!
🙂
WWP
Some cults do that. Some don’t.
Yeah, and it is pretty lame when you can’t even take the whole of the text you are relying on as foundation for your hate speech and you need to duck and dive between verses.
Mavis Davis says: Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 3:51 pm
Kamala Harris appears to have at least part of one shoe in the door:
**************************************************
Kamala has been my fav from the get -go, Mavis – either as the #1 or as VP to some other Dem …. she is extremely sharp and intelligent and Trump would have nightmares just thinking of her as an adversary ….
I thought Pete Buttigieg did an excellent job in the debate as did Elizabeth Warren in the first one …
Joe Biden – OK but ….. Bernie – similarly
For nostalgia – I would like to see Joe Kennedy 111 in the mix 🙂
Andrew Earlwood:
I don’t take anything away from the Tesla Model S – it’s an amazing machine, and I’d almost certainly have one if I had the readies.
My statement wasn’t intended as a slight, either – I’m just looking at it from the perspective of where the real core of their business lies (in the same vein as “Hewlett-Packard is an ink company”). There’s nothing wrong with being a battery company – there is a huge amount of design, materials, cooling, electronics and software that goes into making their batteries so good, which directly translates into giving their cars sufficient range to make them really useable. The battery is the heart of an EV, and that’s where Tesla’s ‘moat’ is.
billie @ #1010 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 3:26 pm
Lowering speed limits is cheaper than actually fixing the roads 🙁
Player One @ #990 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 2:30 pm
More fool you is all I can say.
This is a reasonable article on the Democratic debates by the ABC’s American correspondents:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-28/five-takeaways-from-the-democratic-debates/11260074
@C@tmomma
I see the current state of the political discourse in America to be about five years ahead of us, I find it quite amazing. I have been wondering who will be our own versions of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez that will pull the political discourse to the left here.
ItzaDream @ #1031 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 4:22 pm
I’ll bet you buy Apple products as well 🙂
“Don’t get me wrong – I am all in favour of electric cars, and would buy one now if the type of vehicle I needed was available (it isn’t). But when I can buy an electric vehicle, it will probably not be a Tesla ”
Me too, but you are seriously missing the point about what a Tesla is. It is not simply a replica of a ICE vehicle with an electric motor and batteries. You are missing the whole change in car design, production and distribution that Musk has developed.
Moreover, and more to the point Tesla has so far shown zero interest in making electric Corollas: it has always wanted to beat the premium manufacturers in the marketplaces occupied from ‘base’ C Class and 3 Series Mercs and BMWs all the way up to Ferrari’s and Lambo Aventadors, and everything in between. By the end of next year with the Model 3, S, X, Y and 3rd generation roadster it will have achieved that.
Great article …..
The Last Kennedy
A number of Democratic power brokers wanted Representative Joe Kennedy to run for president. He consulted with family members and said no.
Kennedy, at 38, is now in his fourth term, with curly bright-red hair and a baby face that can make him seem younger.
He speaks fluent Spanish, from his time in the Peace Corps in the Dominican Republic. He writes congratulatory emails and thank-you notes by hand, and has developed a fan base of insiders impressed with the battles he picks and how he fights them. He’s well liked by most of his colleagues (including, in an odd-couple pairing, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy), and the few who gripe about him, and the attention he gets, know they’re better off not admitting it.
He’d said in his moral-capitalism speech that he hoped the 2020 election and history would put Trump in his “rightful place.” When I asked him what he thought that rightful place would be, Kennedy said, “His rightful place in history is a candidate that called on some of the darkest impulses of an American electorate at a particularly vulnerable time to elevate his own political prospects.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/04/representative-joe-kennedy-said-no-presidential-race/587401/
The trouble with lowering speed limits on country roads is that it’s impossible to police them effectively. The roads, by definition, have low traffic numbers – you’re not going to sit a traffic policeman on a road at 2 am in the morning on the offchance A Car might go past (let alone speeding). Similarly, you’re not going to put a camera there, either – it’s not a matter of economics, but of simple effectiveness – better to slow down vehicles on roads with heavy traffic than sit your camera somewhere where it’s basically useless.
If you can’t police a law, you can’t enforce it, and if you can’t enforce it, there’s no point having it.
Diogenes @ #954 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 12:41 pm
Yes, I agree, but she is still using it to discount all those other things.
I know peer-reviewed journals leave a lot to be desired, after all didn’t The Lancet or somethinp publish that anti-vaxxer nut’s fraudulent paper?
But she was using it to say all humanities research, all gender studies, cultural studies,race studies, sociology, teaching curriculum, equal opp employment practices, social health, and everything else under the sun is biased against Western Civilization and down-trodden, vilified, silenced, white males.
I thought they still have massive production problems and a production quality outcome any other car manufacturer (perhaps excluding Great Wall) would consider orders of magnitude worse than acceptable.
…crappy roads have their own effective speed limiters, regardless. You’re ‘allowed’ to drive at 100k down our two ks of dirt road. No one does (not even the neighbourhood hoon kids), because if you hit a pothole at that speed, your teeth get shaken out of their sockets. Oh, and wombats.
The idea of imposing speed limits on dirt roads was trialled in Victoria about twelve months ago. It doesn’t seem to have gone beyond trial stage.
WeWantPaul @ #1020 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 3:28 pm
Yeah, obedient, accept correction and discipline and be very good at growing Datura plants.
You wonder why that person chose to focus her attention on cultural sociological studies. I’m sure there are just as many shonky studies that wouldn’t pass muster in the medical field, for example. And we have a prime example already with that dodgy study about vaccines causing Autism.
PuffyTMD @ #1041 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 4:45 pm
Another name for which is Angels Trumpets. 🙂
P1 and Puffy
The quotes I’ve seen about the motivation behind the fakes was not to say it was all bunkum but to say a lot in the field either can’t tell the difference or don’t care. As P1 says, some of the journals didn’t really purport to have rigorous standards so it was a bit of a cheap shot to send it to them.
Just to confuse everyone:
C@t
You certainly can fake your results in medicine. Some prominent stem cell researchers have done that. And McBride in Australia.
That’s different to your article being a parody though. And harm could come to people if a bogus study showed eating a kilo of asparagus a day cured bowel cancer for eg.
With NBN and NDIS as examples of good ideas ruined by politicians, I think it’s time we stopped calling Australia “the clever country”. Unless it’s satirical, of course.
lizzie says:
It is, taken from the same joke book as…….
I missed this in all the debate drama. Love how it is claimed that it’s ‘partisan gerrymandering’, enabling the SC to give the case the flick, when in reality the gerrymandering is about disenfranchising minorities.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/27/us/politics/supreme-court-gerrymandering.html