I had a paywalled Crikey article on Friday on the religion factor in the election result, drawing on results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey. Among other things, it had this to say:
The results from the 2016 survey provide some support for the notion, popular on the right of the Liberal Party, that Malcolm Turnbull brought the government to the brink of defeat by losing religious voters, who appear to have flocked back to the party under Morrison. Notably, the fact that non-religious voters trusted Turnbull a lot more than they did Abbott did not translate into extra votes for the Coalition, whereas a two-party swing to Labor of 7% was recorded among the religiously observant.
The charts below expand upon the survey data featured in the article, showing how Labor’s two-party preferred has compared over the years between those who attend religious services several times a year or more (“often”), those who do so less frequently (“sometimes”), and those who don’t do it at all (“never”).
Some other post-election observations:
• Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports the looming Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the election will examine the three-week pre-polling period and the extent of Clive Palmer’s campaign spending. There is not, it would seem, any appetite to explore the debilitating phenomenon of fake news proliferating on social media, for which Australia arguably experienced a watershed moment during the campaign through claims Labor had a policy to introduce a “death tax”. This is explored in depth today in a report in The Guardian and an accompanying opinion piece by Lenore Taylor. That said, not all of the mendacity about death taxes was subterranean, as demonstrated by this official Liberal Party advertisement.
• As best as I can tell, all votes for the House of Representatives have been counted now. There was a fall in the official turnout rate (UPDATE: No, actually — it’s since risen to 91.9%, up from 91.0% in 2016), which, together with the fact that not all votes had been counted at the time, gave rise to a regrettable article in the Age-Herald last week. However, as Ben Raue at the Tally Room explores in depth, the turnout rate reflects the greater coverage of the electoral roll owing to the Australian Electoral Commission’s direct enrolment procedures. This appears to have succeeded to some extent in increasing the effective participation rate, namely votes cast as a proportion of the eligible population rather than those actually enrolled, which by Raue’s reckoning tracked up from 80.0% in 2010 to 83.2% – an enviable result by international standards. However, it has also means a larger share of the non-voting population is now on the roll rather than off it, and hence required to bluff their way out of a fine for not voting.
• The rate of informal voting increased from 5.0% to 5.5%, but those seeking to tie this to an outbreak of apathy are probably thinking too hard. Antony Green notes the shift was peculiar to New South Wales, and puts this down to the proximity of a state election there, maximising confusion arising from its system of optional preferential voting. The real outlier in informal voting rates of recent times was the low level recorded in 2007, which among other things causes me to wonder if there might be an inverse relationship between the informal voting rate and the level of enthusiasm for Labor.
@guytaur
I agree with your assertion that the budget deficit being a non-issue in the electorate. That is why I think the government could implement stimulus measures (dominated tax cuts/rebates and infrastructure spending) if the coming recession is worse than what is being predicted (which I believe is likely).
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, June 10, 2019 at 5:04 pm
Victorian CFMMEU members need to stand up and get rid of Setka at the next opportunity. The standards you walk past are the standards you accept.
_________________________________
Where is the ACTU in this Rex? Not credible to campaign for 5 days paid domestic violence leave yet leave this unaddressed?
“I’m just not prepared to blind myself to its political toxicity. ”
This is not the Green’s fault, nor Labor’s fault. And I don’t mean that in a whiny laa laa way. I mean that in all seriousness.
Tony Abbott played the media. And recall he was against the 2009 version too – probably the outcome would have been the same as the only way it would have got up was due to a couple of Libs crossing the floor; he would’ve done the same thing if that legislation got up. There wasn’t bi-partisan support as people keep claiming here.
Bushfire
Whatever Labor said was used against them in the ‘Stop Adani’ and ‘shifty bill’ campaigns. Tony Burke laid it out legally and was ignored.
Lars
Yeah that was well done but there are times when people put their own spin on an issue or someone’s reaction to an issue. Shorten was clear about Adani, just because people didn’t like or believe him probably feeding back to the question of trust many had against Shorten.
“Fair enough!
Self-criticism is good for the soul!”
True that Lars.
I think every Bludger who is Labor is prepared to engage in self-criticism.
I also think every Bludger who is Green is incapable of such self awareness.
Tristo
The good news is what BB alluded to. Any recession in this term of parliament will mean that immunity the LNP enjoys due to the good economic managers myth will die.
Mexicanbeemer @ #647 Monday, June 10th, 2019 – 5:00 pm
Labor is a class act in wedging itself. No-one does it better.
Lars Von Trier @ #655 Monday, June 10th, 2019 – 5:06 pm
I am a supporter of unionism, but members need to be more active in who represents them. There are a few very dodgy characters who do their members a dis-service.
“Labor was for Adani in Queensland and against it in Victoria. Very politically smart messaging. Everybody knows that !”
Sounds like the kind of thing someone who was trying to promote a bullshit meme would say.
And you ARE so full of bullshit, Lars.
Rex
They sure do know how to make the LNP’s job easy for them, Some ALP supporters were not willing to pick a fight with the media and its audience on newstart but were blind to the dangers of picking fights with the media and the same audience on franking credits.
Adani was used as an issue to wedge Labor from the left and the right. In years past both the Coalition and Greens have sought to do this with asylum seekers, however that issue has gone off the boil in recent years, so Adani it was.
If Adani falls over as expected, I’m sure both parties will find something else to try to exploit Labor politically.
When they are doing murals called “Two Face” about you what conclusion do you draw?
The reasonable person would say, maybe – credibility problem?
“Tony Abbott played the media. And recall he was against the 2009 version too – probably the outcome would have been the same as the only way it would have got up was due to a couple of Libs crossing the floor; he would’ve done the same thing if that legislation got up. There wasn’t bi-partisan support as people keep claiming here.”
If the CRPS got up with the combined support of Labor, Greens and Liberal renegades, the official Liberal opposition to it would have been seen as simply cra cra Abbottism. His leadership would have been still borne and he likely would not have even survived until the 2010 election.
The CRPS would NOT have delivered 40% reductions by 2020 (the Greens bottom line before Copenhagen). Nor would it have developed 25% reductions by 2020 (the Greens new bottom line post Copenhagen) but if it passed it would have been a Liberal killer, as it represented what the sane wing of the liberals would agree to AND what Howard actually left on the table back in 2007. That would have facilitated a landslide victory to Labor at the following election and the ability to pivot to the European trading scheme that Combet brokered in 2012. That’s how you build successes in democracies, especially ones with fairly conservative constituencies like Australia. Now? WE have nothing. And in other environmental areas utter devastation.
It’s interesting the obsession with Adani, and union bosses, and the Greens here.
Because as William’s post above and other earlier posts seem to be suggesting that the things that actually dictated the results of the election was everything but the above.
That is was tax, religion, and a bunch of scare campaigns.
Sooooo why keep on about these side issues?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #649 Monday, June 10th, 2019 – 5:03 pm
The problem for Labor people was their selective blindness to the general dis-satisfaction of their leader.
As said many time over the 6 yrs, he was a drag.
It was clear to see a long way back that a leader seen as in-authentic was always up against it in selling the policies Labor went to the election with.
Add the dolt Bowen whose messaging was non-existent and we got what we got.
How good is that! It was all happening in another country.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/10/afp-media-raids-defence-agencies-refuse-to-say-if-minister-was-told-before-leaks-referred-to-police
When Greenpeace staged a protest on the Harbour Bridge about the climate emergency in the week before the election and both major conservative parties enthusiastically endorsed their arrest it was clear to me that neither major conservative party could be trusted to protect our environment.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/why-scott-morrison-is-paid-three-times-what-hes-worth,12792
The Greens are quite right to criticize Labor for being obssessed about Adani.
Confessions
Labor let’s itself be wedged. Neither the Greens or the LNP can wedge Labor on penalty rates.
This is because Labor knows it’s principled position all the way through to policy to present the case to voters and the Fair Work Commission.
Labor needs to do that with coal. Be for or against it. They can’t be agnostic with the politics in play. As soon as Labor says Real Action on Climate Change or Green New Deal as Renew Economy was calling Labor’s possible policy under Albanese they are effectively saying they are against coal.
So Labor has to have a narrative ready for voters on that position
Been trying to find an appropriate time to post this. Thanks Bushfire Bill. For the scam merchant from Shiprock Point.
https://youtu.be/eBQWsBiM5YY
When does our wayward PM return? He needs to acquit himself and his govt much better than he has done over the AFP raids.
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, June 10, 2019 at 5:22 pm
When Greenpeace staged a protest on the Harbour Bridge about the climate emergency in the week before the election and both major conservative parties enthusiastically endorsed their arrest it was clear to me that neither major conservative party could be trusted to protect our environment.’
We can only be grateful that over the next three years another 41% of the 2PP vote will awaken from their political slumber after 27 years of criminal blindness about the Greens and their PLAN for fixing everything that Labor has destroyed in opposition.
Green supporters can argue all they like but politics is about accepting what can be done and the Greens blew up an okay climate change policy up purely out of self-interest. Penny Wong made it quite clear during that debate that the ALP could not and would not just dump the coal workers to suit the whims of the Greens and she was right the Greens should have been open to the ALP’s concerns for these workers instead of arrogantly dismissing those workers and their concerns.
Whats the matter Bore-War, your imaginary octopus won’t talk to you anymore? You seem out of sorts?
Andrew_Earlwood
Not sure why you don’t think Tony Abbott wouldn’t have done exactly the same thing… And the media and industry would have backed him just the same.
“His leadership would have been still borne and he likely would not have even survived until the 2010 election.”
That sounds like fantasy.
In fact everything you wrote after that sounds like fantasy. It’s just wishful thinking….
Abbott would have done the same thing to Rudd.
Also Rudd had every opportunity to put it to another election – but bailed.
Mexicanbeemer @ #664 Monday, June 10th, 2019 – 5:14 pm
Labor doesn’t have a lot of time to right the glaring wrongs, in terms of optics, of the last 6 yrs.
Establish firm positions on issues that cost them votes and sell them with short sharp uncomplicated messaging.
Boerwar
“The Greens are quite right to criticize Labor for being obssessed about Adani.”
Waffle Waffle Waffle… Greens Greens Greenssssssss
‘guytaur says:
Monday, June 10, 2019 at 5:22 pm
Labor needs to do that with coal. Be for or against it.’
Yep. It is that simple. Which is why the only hope for the nation is that another 41% of the 2PP vote shifts over the next three years and votes for the Greens who are 100% clear about what they are for and against in every little thing.
Like gutting the ADF, removing all GMOs from the environment, closing down all uranium mines, closing down all facilities which might enable the deployment of nuclear weapons, introducing the UBI, and handing out free money.
Holy Shit!
Boerwar went back to this crap
“Like gutting the ADF, removing all GMOs from the environment, closing down all uranium mines, closing down all facilities which might enable the deployment of nuclear weapons, introducing the UBI, and handing out free money.”
FAR OUT
MOVE ON DUDE
MOVE ON
BW
You may not like it but that’s the reality of how totemic coal has become in the climate debate.
You don’t have to agree with Paul Keating that coal is dead. However you can’t really call him a green partisan.
‘Astrobleme says:
Monday, June 10, 2019 at 5:28 pm
Boerwar
“The Greens are quite right to criticize Labor for being obssessed about Adani.”
Waffle Waffle Waffle… Greens Greens Greenssssssss…’ are 100% right 100% of the time.
What is absolutely incomprehensible is why 90% of Australians are so bloody stupid when it comes to refusing to vote for the Greens these past three decades. Come on Straya!
Fortunately, under Can Do DiNatale, the Greens will fix what ails their messaging and the desirability of their policies over the next three years and they will form their first government in 2022.
Imagine that: ruling Australia while still keeping the Labor opposition accountable for whatever happens.
Perfect!
BB
I pretty much entirely agree with your comments on the Adani issue on the previous page.
Unfortunately Adani became (was made into) a binary, totemic issue.
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 10, 2019 at 5:33 pm
‘Astrobleme says:
Monday, June 10, 2019 at 5:28 pm
Boerwar
Fortunately, under Can Do DiNatale, the Greens will fix what ails their messaging and the desirability of their policies over the next three years and they will form their first government in 2022.
Imagine that: ruling Australia while still keeping the Labor opposition accountable for whatever happens.
Perfect!
————————-
Sounds like Josh Frydenberg should be their leader, he already has the “its labor’a fault” down pat.
Lars Von Trier @ #668 Monday, June 10th, 2019 – 5:22 pm
I assume by “neither major conservative party” you are referring to the Libs and the Greens? Technically, it would be more correct to say that there are three conservative parties in Australia – the Libs, the Nats and the Greens. Everyone forgets the Nats. At their peril, in places like Queensland.
‘guytaur says:
Monday, June 10, 2019 at 5:33 pm
BW
You may not like it…’
No, really, I DO like it. A Greens government will fix coal stone dead in 2022 because they know they must be either for it or against it.
Within one month of the Greens gaining government not a lump of coal will be being mined, transported or burned anywhere in Australia.
You may not like the immediate economic and social consequences but the Greens government will know exactly what to do: whatever it is that Labor wanted not to do.
You may not like it but Labor MPs, supporters and voters should probably be jailed as climate criminals.
“ruling Australia while still keeping the Labor opposition accountable for whatever happens.”
This is bizarre…
Apparently the Greens are responsible for holding the Labor opposition accountable for whatever happens…
“The problem for Labor people was their selective blindness to the general dis-satisfaction of their leader.
As said many time over the 6 yrs, he was a drag.
It was clear to see a long way back that a leader seen as in-authentic was always up against it in selling the policies Labor went to the election with.
Add the dolt Bowen whose messaging was non-existent and we got what we got.”
Shenanigans. You are just indulging yourself in an anti Shorten, anti Bowen, anti Labor gloat.
If these things were the drag you say they were for the last 6 years, then labor would have gone backwards in 2016, and not come within a bees dick of forming government. Bill Shorten’s Labor won 15 seats when Ullman for example ‘called’ the election two weeks out and said Labor could only win 10 seats at best. Moreover it was ahead in a further 5 seats at the close of counting on election night.
If you were right all this time Rex Labor would not have won all those byelections. Not to mention over a hundred opinion polls in a row.
You are simply a broken clock: right twice a day, but otherwise useless.
It would be far too easy, and wrong, for Labor to simply adopt your analysis. Something far greater and important is happening and Labor needs to focus on that, and not on your piss ant ruminations.
This is the level of logic in our democracy. Incapable of reason, masters of the non-sequitur.
On Labor and those by-elections, only Longman made it look like a strong result, the Braddon result was basically little change and Longman like Queensland more generally didn’t like Turnbull.
The ACTU & Setka:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/10/labor-and-actu-accused-of-pathetic-response-to-union-boss-john-setkas-rosie-batty-comments
‘Astrobleme says:
Monday, June 10, 2019 at 5:38 pm
“ruling Australia while still keeping the Labor opposition accountable for whatever happens.”
This is bizarre…
Apparently the Greens are responsible for holding the Labor opposition accountable for whatever happens…’
Some may call it bizarre but I call it common sense. After all, during the recent election campaign, Can Do Di Natale publicly specified holding LABOR to account. Quite right too! After all, after six years of fucking the climate and our biodiversity and our society and our economy, why would Di Natale concern himself about keeping the Coalition to account? When it is all Labor’s fault.
Astrobleme, you are 100% right and I applaud your contribution! Some Labor trolls and Labor naysayers and Labor neggers might just think that keeping Labor to account should not be the number one priority of the Greens Party. But Can Do was 100% correct to promise to do that for the next three years.
Anyway, that is the second priority. The first priority for the 2022 Di Natale Greens government will be fixing up everything Labor has stuffed up in opposition.
When Australia goes into recession Morrison et al will blame Labor and the Greens for refusing to pass (insert legislation here) and Murdoch will scream about how Labor and the Greens are economic vandals and, besides, things would be even worse under Labor.
The ABC will repeat everything Murdoch says and all people will remember about this economic ‘blip’ was that we were very lucky to have had a Coalition Government to steer us through it, and how Australia dodged a bullet on May 18 2019 by rejecting Bill Shorten.
In fact, I’m almost confident enough to put money on it …
“Not sure why you don’t think Tony Abbott wouldn’t have done exactly the same thing… And the media and industry would have backed him just the same.
“His leadership would have been still borne and he likely would not have even survived until the 2010 election.”
That sounds like fantasy.
In fact everything you wrote after that sounds like fantasy. It’s just wishful thinking….
Abbott would have done the same thing to Rudd.
Also Rudd had every opportunity to put it to another election – but bailed.”
Politics is perception. The perception of Abbott if as the first thing that happened in his leadership was that enough dissidents broke away to pass the very thing that his leadership was established on opposing he would have never recovered: he would have been universally perceived as a joke from day 1.
You are right about Rudd buckling over the CRPS though. This legitimised Abbott. It was Rudd’s fatal mistake.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #692 Monday, June 10th, 2019 – 5:39 pm
Shorten and Bowen were such drags they couldn’t beat a Govt so broken and incompetent that had 3 PM’s in 6 yrs.
Just ponder whether Labor would have beaten the Govt in 2016 with the more authentic and palatable Albanese selling the message… ?
Still can’t believe it’s only been three weeks since the election.
Felt like it’s been years.
The Greens government will undoubtedly pay Adani tens of billions in compensation when they are sued for forbidding the mining of coal from Carmichael.
After all, even Greens governments are going to honour the rule of law.
These billions will, fortunately, go directly to helping the poor people of India.
Win win!
Tonight’s Qanda looks like inner city hipster central.
Such an easy game isn’t it Boerwar, if you pretend the Greens don’t criticise the Coalition then they don’t…
But it’s just boring and stupid.