The first pollster to put its head above the parapet post-election has been Essential Research, though it’s sensibly refraining from treating us to voting intention results for the time being. As reported in The Guardian yesterday, the pollster’s fortnightly survey focused on what respondents did do rather than what they would do, finding 48% saying their decision was made well in advance of the election, 26% saying they made up their mind in the weeks before the election, and 11% saying they made up their mind on polling day. Lest this seemingly high rate of indecision be cited as an alibi for pollster failure, the historical results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study – which you can find displayed on page 18 here – suggest these numbers to be in no way out of the ordinary.
The poll also found those who decided in the final weeks came down 40% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor. However, assuming the sample for this poll was as per the Essential norm of between 1000 and 1100 (which I hope to be able to verify later today), the margin of error on this subset of the total sample would have been over 5%, making these numbers statistically indistinguishable from the almost-final national primary vote totals of 41.4% for the Coalition and 33.3% for Labor. This goes double for the finding that those who decided on election day went Coalition 38% and Labor 27%, remembering this counted for only 11% of the sample.
Perhaps notable is a finding that only 22% of respondents said they had played “close attention” to the election campaign, which compares with results of between 30% and 40% for the Australian Election Study’s almost equivalent response for “a good deal of interest in the election” between 1996 and 2016. Forty-four per cent said they had paid little or no attention, and 34% some attention. These findings may be relevant to the notion that the pollsters failed because they had too many politically engaged respondents in their sample. The Guardian reports breakdowns were provided on this question for voters at different levels of education – perhaps the fact that this question was asked signifies that they will seek to redress the problem by weighting for this in future.
Also featured are unsurprising findings on issue salience, with those more concerned with economic management tending to favour the Coalition, and those prioritising education and climate change favouring Labor and the Greens.
In other post-election analysis news, the Grattan Institute offers further data illustrating some now familiar themes: the high-income areas swung against the Coalition, whereas low-to-middle income ones went solidly the other way; areas with low tertiary education swung to the Coalition, although less so in Victoria than New South Wales and Queensland.
Another popular notion is that Labor owes its defeat to a loss of support among religious voters, as a hangover from the same-sex marriage referendum and, in what may have been a sleeper issue at the cultural level, the Israel Folau controversy. Chris Bowen said in the wake of the defeat that he had encountered a view that “people of faith no longer feel that progressive politics cares about them”, and The Australian reported on Saturday that Labor MPs believed Bill Shorten blundered in castigating Scott Morrison for declining to affirm that he did not believe gay people would go to hell.
In reviewing Labor’s apparent under-performance among ethnic communities in Sydney and Melbourne, Andrew Jakubowicz and Christina Ho in The Conversation downplay the impact of religious factors, pointing to a precipitous decline in support for Christian minor parties, and propose that Labor’s promised expansion of parental reunion visas backfired on them. Intended to capture the Chinese vote in Chisholm, Banks and Reid, the actual effect was to encourage notions of an imminent influx of Muslim immigrants, “scaring both non-Muslim ethnic and non-ethnic voters”.
However, I’m not clear what this is based on, beyond the fact that the Liberals did a lot better in Banks than they did in neighbouring Barton, home to “very much higher numbers of South Asian and Muslim residents”. Two things may be said in response to this. One is that the nation’s most Islamic electorate, Watson and Blaxland, recorded swings of 4% to 5% to the Liberals, no different from Banks. The other is that the boundary between Banks and Barton runs right through the Chinese enclave of Hurstville, but voters on either side of the line behaved very differently. The Hurstville pre-poll voting centre, which serviced both electorates, recorded a 4.8% swing to Labor for Barton, and a 5.7% swing to Liberal for Banks. This may suggest that sitting member factors played an important role, and are perhaps of particular significance for Chinese voters.
And the 17yo is a seppo. I hope they dont ask her to do a twirl.
Correct Roger, Perth legend.
Of his time.
Yeah and btw media – if you want us to stick up for you, how about you stick up for us? Stop waiving through complete rubbish from the LNP in the name of “balance”.
Scrutinise the claims you report on. Evaluate them.
example! If X says day is day, and Y says day is night, it is not “balance” to report both.
One is supported by evidence; the other is complete garbage. It is therefore unbalanced to give them equal weight.
These windies bowlers look big and tough but they’re bowling pies, not much quicker than Lino’s quicker ball.
Get get impression that the Windies are throwing the match
Disgraceful
And what do you base that allegation on s?
Mexicanbeemer says:
Thursday, June 6, 2019 at 8:33 pm
Nicholas
The U.S has an unemployment rate under 4% with wage growth above 3% and GDP growth above 3%, these are the kind of numbers Frydenberg can only dream about along with Carlton premierships.
So says someone who has obviously not been the USA. To begin with 0.7% of there population is in jail and 0.5% are in the military (employed to do what). People who are neither employed nor have looked for a job within the last 4 weeks are not included in the labor force.
The unemployment rate in the USA will be a lot higher than 4%
Diogenes:
Thalidomide is active against multiple myeloma.
http://www.bloodjournal.org/content/111/8/3968?sso-checked=true
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/media-raids-show-national-security-laws-being-abused-20190605-p51uvd
I live in secessionist WA and even I struggle to think like a Qlder.
On a semi related note, the state Labor govt here has restored our credit rating, lost under Barnett’s mob. Something you’d never know from reading the local one horse town newspaper here.
https://thewest.com.au/
frednk
The prison population isn’t counted as it isn’t part of the labour market, the labour market is only made up of those in employment and those looking for employment. People can try to find holes in the official data but it doesn’t change the official numbers, we know there are deep social issues in the U.S but the official data paints a good picture and only time will tell if the U.S economy can remain strong or will it slip into recession.
We can all express opinions about what is going on in the land of Oz but never forget that’s what Australia voted for so to everyone bitching and whining about this or that, suck it up princess, there’s another three years of this and worse to come.
You and your facts William.
The later has caused the former. Like the heavy chunk of knotted timber that smashed into my groin while splitting firewood. I can ask how the F that happened while still being super aware of it happening.
If the Commonwealth is as divided as it appears, exemplified by the extremes of progressive Victoria and right wing Queensland/W.A it makes sense that Turnbull’s thought bubble of states adding an extra income tax on top of the federal one should be looked at thoroughly. If Victorians want the best health and education systems in the country, lets pay for it ourselves.
538 had some interesting commentary on the comparative popularity of Democratic contenders. Harris and Warren are among those “better-liked” than “expected” in relation to how well known they are. Sanders is slightly less well liked than expected. They’re all plotted…worth looking at.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/trump-to-stay-at-doonbeg-his-money-losing-golf-course-threatened-by-climate-change/2019/06/05/417832fe-87a2-11e9-9d73-e2ba6bbf1b9b_story.html?utm_term=.0d34e9308ba9
Emoluments clause style convenience.
CNN news stream third story (after D-day and Trump/Mexico) was a good overview of the AFP media raids with a good interview with John Lyons with pertinent ‘leading’ (for want of a better word) questions.
Back live to France now.
Bert says:
Thursday, June 6, 2019 at 9:59 pm
…
suck it up princess.
…
Could not say it better.
Shellbell @ #1149 Thursday, June 6th, 2019 – 9:22 pm
And a First Nations person
Fox’s Tucker ‘Fletch’ Carlson gave Warren a wrap. Sort of.
She is a stayer.
I wish the State Government would use its financial strength to lift the economy. The WA economy has seldom been so slack.
It’s significantly worse now than in 2017.
Mexicanbeemer
I have long know that USA employment statistics live in a different world, but your post sparked my interest. I haven’t been in the US for 9 years (and intend never to go back).
Google doesn’t seem to be very positive.
Uniform taxation stands as one of the great reforms of Curtin and Chifley. It’s no surprise the reactionaries want to undo it.
briefly
The state government can get into serious trouble borrowing money; it is the Federal governments job to step in when capital does a funk. Good luck with that.
ajm
According to Wikipedia Barty’s father’s tribal group was from southern NSW/Eastern Victoria, looks like Queensland can’t claim Barty 😉
Frednk
The way many US states manage the unemployed is appalling leading to substantial poverty and its been estimated that there is a large number of people basically fallen through the cracks and so are outside the official data, the data does show a participation rate in the low 60s whereas Australia’s is in the mid 60s.
The chart showing the % of government spending contributing government is real worry in this:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/jun/06/the-government-has-run-the-economy-into-the-ground
It is higher than it was at the start of the GFC.
What can one say; suck it up princess.
briefly
says:
Thursday, June 6, 2019 at 10:38 pm
Uniform taxation stands as one of the great reforms of Curtin and Chifley. It’s no surprise the reactionaries want to undo it.
_______________________
So arguing for an extra income tax for Victorian schools and hospitals makes me a reactionary? You really are a disturbed person.
Mexicanbeemer
Australia has illegal immigration in the thousands. The USA in the millions, even the participation rates are rubbish.
The WA Coulter-Nile is ramping up his economy.
This is really interesting. The Queen decides how long she will talk to someone after meeting them and puts her bag in different places to let her lady-in-waiting know when to stop the meeting so she doesn’t appear rude.
“The position of the 93-year-old Queen’s handbag in the Audience Room at Buckingham Palace sends a specific signal to her lady-in-waiting standing metres away.
If the Queen places her bag on the chair, it means she is happy to keep chatting away.
But if the bag is placed on the table, or worse the floor, the Queen’s lady-in-waiting knows to either cut the meeting short, or to rush over and end the meeting completely.”
Dio
There is a real history to how royals behave and how people behave around them, particularly the Queen or King.
The Macartney Embassy, also called the Macartney Mission, was the first British diplomatic mission to China, which took place in 1793. It is named for its leader, George Macartney, Great Britain’s first envoy to China….
While Portuguese and Dutch merchants in Canton (now Guangzhou) had acquiesced to the ritual, British subjects, who regarded the act as slavish and humiliating.
Throughout his meetings with Chinese officials, Macartney was repeatedly urged to perform the kowtow during his audience with the emperor….. Nevertheless, Macartney submitted to Zhengrui a written proposal that would satisfy his requirement of equal status: whatever ceremony he performed, a Chinese official of equal rank would do the same before a portrait of George III.
Mb
Ministers must do similar things and have signals to tell their staff when to wrap a meeting up rather than them doing it so they don’t look rude or unsympathetic.
I suppose it’s better than opening the trapdoor.
How good has he been, in a team that you wouldn’t put out against the Bunbury 4th team without a lot of nervousness, sad he didn’t get his century too, but if Australia win he must be MoTM.
or unleashing the hounds.
You can’t really have a differential taxation / service regime with freedom of movement.
People will tend to arbitrage it by moving to the low-taxing low-service jurisdictions when they’re young and childless then moving back to the high-taxing high-service jurisdictions when they’re retired or in particular need of government services.
The only reason drys like Turnbull promote that kind of thing is they hope for a race-to-the-bottom.
Dio
I knew a minister who would make sure meetings went to schedule by having his PA come in to tell him the Premier was on the phone and it was urgent.
caf
says:
Thursday, June 6, 2019 at 11:18 pm
You can’t really have a differential taxation / service regime with freedom of movement.
People will tend to arbitrage it by moving to the low-taxing low-service jurisdictions when they’re young and childless then moving back to the high-taxing high-service jurisdictions when they’re retired or in particular need of government services.
The only reason drys like Turnbull promote that kind of thing is they hope for a race-to-the-bottom.
____________________________
I really don’t think that if Victoria had an extra 2% on incomes over 30k that it would create a situation where people would do that. So young people are going to go to S.A with its hip economy when they are young and leave Vic to avoid that tax?
It might provoke a race to the top.
The AFP union spokesperson saying the police are doing their job professionally sounds rather like Nuremberg defence.
Probably more likely they’d go to Sydney or Brisbane.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/05/world/australia/journalist-raids.html
@NATH Lots of states in the USA have income tax and prior to ww2 Australian state governments collected income tax.QLD used to have death duties until Joh scrapped them.
All these options are there for Andrews if he is brave enough,there is nothing in the constitution to stop a state introducing these kind of taxes.
You sure ’bout that?
Lucky Creed
says:
Thursday, June 6, 2019 at 11:48 pm
@NATH Lots of states in the USA have income tax and prior to ww2 Australian state governments collected income tax.QLD used to have death duties until Joh scrapped them.
All these options are there for Andrews if he is brave enough,there is nothing in the constitution to stop a state introducing these kind of taxes.
_________________________________
It would have to be collected at the federal level and then passed on to the state. It’s a good idea. If Victorians want better schools and hospitals then it’s the only way to go. It might also enable stamp duty to be lowered considerably.
& did the queen hit trump over the head with her bag? she looked as though she wanted to.
speaking of trump, did anyone see his quote when asked about climate change and his meeting with Prince Charlie:
“I did say, ‘Well, the United States right now has among the cleanest climates there are based on all statistics.’ And it’s even getting better because I agree with that we want the best water, the cleanest water. It’s crystal clean, has to be crystal clean clear.”
“China, India, Russia, many other nations, they have not very good air, not very good water, and the sense of pollution. If you go to certain cities – I won’t name them, but I can – you can’t even breathe, and now that air is going up … They don’t do the responsibility.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-tells-prince-charles-us-is-clean-on-climate-change
faark – to go from Obama to this sub-moron…….. a bit like going from Gillard to Abbott or Turnbull to Morriscum I guess.
it’s up there with this rant (slowed down to make him appear drunk, bu the words are just as bad/worse sober) https://www.facebook.com/rivera.joe/videos/10155608570427069/?t=133
It is a long time since Con Law in 1st year, but I thought the states had actually ceded this power.
A quick google informs me that forty three states in the USA levy individual income tax forty one tax wages and salaries while two New Hampshire and Tennesee exclusively tax dividend and interest income.Income tax makes up 37% of state tax collections.
Of those states raising income tax eight have a flat tax while the rest have a progressive tax structure. Hawai has the most tax brackets twelve in all.Top marginal rates range from 2.9% in North Dakota to 13.3% in California.