Why what happened happened

Essential Research chances its arm at some post-election analysis. Also featured: musings on the impact of religion and ethnicity on the result.

The first pollster to put its head above the parapet post-election has been Essential Research, though it’s sensibly refraining from treating us to voting intention results for the time being. As reported in The Guardian yesterday, the pollster’s fortnightly survey focused on what respondents did do rather than what they would do, finding 48% saying their decision was made well in advance of the election, 26% saying they made up their mind in the weeks before the election, and 11% saying they made up their mind on polling day. Lest this seemingly high rate of indecision be cited as an alibi for pollster failure, the historical results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study – which you can find displayed on page 18 here – suggest these numbers to be in no way out of the ordinary.

The poll also found those who decided in the final weeks came down 40% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor. However, assuming the sample for this poll was as per the Essential norm of between 1000 and 1100 (which I hope to be able to verify later today), the margin of error on this subset of the total sample would have been over 5%, making these numbers statistically indistinguishable from the almost-final national primary vote totals of 41.4% for the Coalition and 33.3% for Labor. This goes double for the finding that those who decided on election day went Coalition 38% and Labor 27%, remembering this counted for only 11% of the sample.

Perhaps notable is a finding that only 22% of respondents said they had played “close attention” to the election campaign, which compares with results of between 30% and 40% for the Australian Election Study’s almost equivalent response for “a good deal of interest in the election” between 1996 and 2016. Forty-four per cent said they had paid little or no attention, and 34% some attention. These findings may be relevant to the notion that the pollsters failed because they had too many politically engaged respondents in their sample. The Guardian reports breakdowns were provided on this question for voters at different levels of education – perhaps the fact that this question was asked signifies that they will seek to redress the problem by weighting for this in future.

Also featured are unsurprising findings on issue salience, with those more concerned with economic management tending to favour the Coalition, and those prioritising education and climate change favouring Labor and the Greens.

In other post-election analysis news, the Grattan Institute offers further data illustrating some now familiar themes: the high-income areas swung against the Coalition, whereas low-to-middle income ones went solidly the other way; areas with low tertiary education swung to the Coalition, although less so in Victoria than New South Wales and Queensland.

Another popular notion is that Labor owes its defeat to a loss of support among religious voters, as a hangover from the same-sex marriage referendum and, in what may have been a sleeper issue at the cultural level, the Israel Folau controversy. Chris Bowen said in the wake of the defeat that he had encountered a view that “people of faith no longer feel that progressive politics cares about them”, and The Australian reported on Saturday that Labor MPs believed Bill Shorten blundered in castigating Scott Morrison for declining to affirm that he did not believe gay people would go to hell.

In reviewing Labor’s apparent under-performance among ethnic communities in Sydney and Melbourne, Andrew Jakubowicz and Christina Ho in The Conversation downplay the impact of religious factors, pointing to a precipitous decline in support for Christian minor parties, and propose that Labor’s promised expansion of parental reunion visas backfired on them. Intended to capture the Chinese vote in Chisholm, Banks and Reid, the actual effect was to encourage notions of an imminent influx of Muslim immigrants, “scaring both non-Muslim ethnic and non-ethnic voters”.

However, I’m not clear what this is based on, beyond the fact that the Liberals did a lot better in Banks than they did in neighbouring Barton, home to “very much higher numbers of South Asian and Muslim residents”. Two things may be said in response to this. One is that the nation’s most Islamic electorate, Watson and Blaxland, recorded swings of 4% to 5% to the Liberals, no different from Banks. The other is that the boundary between Banks and Barton runs right through the Chinese enclave of Hurstville, but voters on either side of the line behaved very differently. The Hurstville pre-poll voting centre, which serviced both electorates, recorded a 4.8% swing to Labor for Barton, and a 5.7% swing to Liberal for Banks. This may suggest that sitting member factors played an important role, and are perhaps of particular significance for Chinese voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,732 comments on “Why what happened happened”

Comments Page 25 of 35
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  1. We want Paul – They ceded it voluntarily during ww2, once the war ended there was nothing to stop them reintroducing income tax,there is nothing in the constitution to prevent them from doing so.

    QLD had death duties well into the sixties, as I say the option is there if a state government were brave enough to take it to an election.

  2. @NATH Prior to ww2 the federal government collected no income tax, income tax was levied exclusively by the states. Tariffs were the main source of revenue for the federal government.

    Remember prior to ww2 the Federal governments role in Australia was very limited and mainly concerned trade, defense, foreign affairs and diplomacy at the domestic level the individual states were far more important.

  3. The Commonwealth increased overall income taxes significantly with uniform taxation in 1941, including a top tax rate of 18 shillings in the pound (90%), and exempted money paid in Commonwealth tax from state taxes, leaving very little space for state income taxes. The Commonwealth also gave grants to the states on condition that they not levy state income taxes. It eventually ended up in the High Court and the Commonwealth laws were upheld.

    This has resulted in cash strapped state governments most of the time since because no government has as much incentive to raise tax revenue for another government as the government receiving the tax revenue does. Therefore restoring state income taxes, without reducing Commonwealth taxes more than the size of the state taxes, would probably be on net benefit.

  4. Heartening thoughts from Kate McClymont, the reporter who uncovered a lot of the “Underbelly” in Sydney. She is a local icon here.

    My take, for what it's worth, is that in a perverse way the AFP raids have been beneficial. They've unified the media, garnered worldwide attention & highlighted the vital service journalists & whistleblowers play in shining a light on things those in power don't want us to see. https://t.co/LY0B8wSM1J— Kate McClymont (@Kate_McClymont) June 6, 2019

  5. And perhaps the progressives / left can fight back against social media.

    From Adrian Beaumont (as he linked earlier):
    German Greens surge to tie CDU/CSU after European elections

    At the German European elections on May 26, the conservative CDU/CSU parties won 29 of the 96 seats (down five since 2014), the Greens 21 (up 11), the Social Democrats 16 (down 11), the far-right AfD 11 (up four), the far-left Left five (down two) and the economically liberal FDP five (up two).

    Probably partly as a result of their strong performance at the European elections, the Greens have surged into a tie with the CDU/CSU in German federal polling. The two most recent polls, taken after the European elections, have the Greens one point ahead and one point behind the CDU/CSU. The Greens and CDU/CSU are in the mid to high 20’s, while the normal major left party, the Social Democrats, have slumped to just 13%, damaged by their continuing participation in the Grand Coalition government with the CDU/CSU.
    http://adrianbeaumont.net/left-wins-danish-election-new-israeli-election-german-greens-surge-to-tie-for-lead-left-gains-in-tas-upper-house/

  6. As I said yesterday, I am less than happy with the collapse of the German SPD, but I know the grand coalition between the CDU/ SDU (Angela Merkel’s group) has hurt the smaller, more left party. I hope they can regroup, because they are fighting hard against racial identity politics.

    However Avaanz, who I have a lot if time for is not only happy with the result, but details how they were able to help defeat enough of the nasty right viral social media campaign to stop the right wing wave that many saw coming int he EU elections. If we can mobilise this in Australia, we will do much better.

    This is what I got from Avaanz today

    After Trump, Brexit, and Bolsonaro, Europe was supposed to be next in last weekend’s elections. The last reliably democratic global power, drowned in the fake news and hate of the far right.

    To meet this historic threat, Avaaz exposed and forced the takedown of likely the largest disinformation networks EVER. Networks that were racking up 3 BILLION views a year of their poison in just six countries. Enough to reach every voter an average of twenty times!!

    And because hateful extremists also count on low voter turnout, we launched inspirational calls to defend democracy and go vote that were seen over 100 million times across Europe just in the last few days before the election!

    The result: The highest voter turnout in 25 years. The far right “surge” reduced to a ripple. The justice-loving social democrats and pro-EU center right remain by far the biggest parties, and there’s been a real surge of climate-saving Greens and passionately pro-EU liberal democrats, who now hold the balance of power in the new Europe!

    Our unprecedented win on disinformation made front page news across the world. And a Director-General of the EU Parliament, Jaume Duch Guillot, said “Avaaz has been a driving force helping the European Parliament mobilize people to vote in the 2019 election.”

    Read on for the inside story of our efforts in this election season, from Spain to Silicon Valley. This was an effort powered by 80,000 Avaaz donors, another 80,000 volunteers, and nearly 2 million members. And it helped shape history. Thank you!!!

    https://secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/eu_elections_reportback_may_2019/#weapon

  7. I feel like we are running the history of the 1920s and 1930s again, and hoping for a different outcome.

    But, maybe informed by history, we may actually get that better outcome.

  8. “Scott Morrison gets $11,000 pay rise on the day workers lose penalty rates”

    ACTU assistant secretary Liam O’Brien pointed out that the Prime Minister’s latest pay increase came on the same day that retail workers faced further penalty rate cuts.

    “Australian workers have seen six years of near-record, low wage growth under this government. The policies of the Morrison government have driven down wages and eroded workers’ rights,” Mr O’Brien told The New Daily.

    “The Morrison government will enjoy a pay rise on the same day that 700,000 low-paid workers will once again have their penalty rates cut.

    “We need systemic change to give working people more power to fight for, and win pay rises, not a government which admits low wage growth is a feature of its policies.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/06/scott-morrison-pay-rise/

  9. lizzie @ #1209 Friday, June 7th, 2019 – 5:42 am

    “Scott Morrison gets $11,000 pay rise on the day workers lose penalty rates”

    ACTU assistant secretary Liam O’Brien pointed out that the Prime Minister’s latest pay increase came on the same day that retail workers faced further penalty rate cuts.

    “Australian workers have seen six years of near-record, low wage growth under this government. The policies of the Morrison government have driven down wages and eroded workers’ rights,” Mr O’Brien told The New Daily.

    “The Morrison government will enjoy a pay rise on the same day that 700,000 low-paid workers will once again have their penalty rates cut.

    “We need systemic change to give working people more power to fight for, and win pay rises, not a government which admits low wage growth is a feature of its policies.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/06/scott-morrison-pay-rise/

    Yeah and how many of them just voted Liberal/LNP/Nationals? They get what they asked for then if they did.

  10. And can I just say, despite what the retired doctors sneered about last night, Dr William McBride will always be a hero of mine for the tireless work he did saving the lives of women who were haemorrhaging to death after backyard abortions in the 1950s and 1960s. You can look down your noses at him for the mistakes he made in his research with Debendox but maybe you should stop to consider a more complex relationship, especially wrt a mental health scenario concerning his relationship to pregnant women, than what the simplistic putdowns indicate to me.

    I have eminent doctors in my wider family too, and they had nothing but praise, and understanding, for the guy and the work he did as a doctor.

    I would have thought other doctors would have had more understanding for the complexities and mental health challenges of the job. Though medicine is also able to make heartless bastards of some of its practitioners.

    So there. End of rant.

  11. “The concern here is that the Morrison government has given no indication that there could be a problem here – perceived or real. Instead, the government is treating the raids of journalists as business as usual. The message that sends is terrible.” ~ Mark Dreyfus.

  12. lizzie @ #1215 Friday, June 7th, 2019 – 7:08 am

    “The concern here is that the Morrison government has given no indication that there could be a problem here – perceived or real. Instead, the government is treating the raids of journalists as business as usual. The message that sends is terrible.” ~ Mark Dreyfus.

    Because it IS business as usual for Authoritarian governments.

    Just wait to see what they have planned for GetUp! and the Unions, especially as far as their involvement in the next election.

  13. Tristo,
    Don’t forget that the Morrison government promised to maintain wealthy retirees standard of living via handouts from the public purse. If the economy goes south how will they be able to afford that?

  14. A question I want to ask do the voters, especially those voted for the Government care at all about the raids? Because it was notable that Peter Dutton was re-elected in his seat of Dickson with a swing towards him.

  15. Mark needs to make it a slogan, not 1 paragraph long.

    For the idiots who voted for libs or one of their ilk.

  16. @C@tmomma

    I don’t believe the government is stupid enough to stop subsiding funding wealthy retirees, they know the electoral consequences of doing that.

    So I believe the government might decide to go very heavily into deficit. Since Australia has a rather low public sector debt by international standards (about 40% of GDP currently), the government might think why not go heavily into deficit. Imagine a tripling or even quadrupling of the federal debt occurring in just a few years.

    Many countries have higher public sector to GDP ratios than ours. Japan for example has public sector debt at over 200% of GDP, America’s over 100% of GDP.

  17. C@tMomma,

    And can I just say, despite what the retired doctors sneered about last night, Dr William McBride will always be a hero of mine for the tireless work he did saving the lives of women who were haemorrhaging to death after backyard abortions in the 1950s and 1960s. You can look down your noses at him for the mistakes he made in his research with Debendox but maybe you should stop to consider a more complex relationship, especially wrt a mental health scenario concerning his relationship to pregnant women, than what the simplistic putdowns indicate to me.

    I have eminent doctors in my wider family too, and they had nothing but praise, and understanding, for the guy and the work he did as a doctor.

    Thank you for this perspective, and for letting me know about the work he did among women in Darlo / Kings Cross in the 1950s / 60s.

    Research, especially on complex systems, is really difficult.

    Also, I made my post last night reflexively, and only later realised that you were talking about David William McBride because he is the one facing life imprisonment for being a whistleblower.

    My post must have sounded really snarky – it was not meant to be – I really honour David William McBride for speaking out, when it was right to do so, despite the fact that it has probably ruined his life.

  18. ‘What does the federal election result mean for the value of your home?’ a sponsored ad from Soames Real Estate which just came up on my facebook timeline. 😐

    What hope have Labor got of righting wrongs when they are up against that sort of relentless pushing of the greed perspective!?!

  19. Thank you for the reply, D & M. I know exactly what Dr McBride did for those women because it was my mother-in-law, from a wealthy Eastern Suburbs family so she had a car and a driving licence back in those days, who used to wait by the phone for the phone calls from those women, who were given her number in case of emergency, and then would go out and pick them up from whatever back alley they were in and take them to Dr McBride. Of course, they may need to go to Emergency if the situation was too serious for him to rectify, however, that was the very last option because then their family would have to be notified and that was the last thing they wanted.

  20. Tristo

    A question I want to ask do the voters, especially those voted for the Government care at all about the raids? Because it was notable that Peter Dutton was re-elected in his seat of Dickson with a swing towards him.

    Sadly, 48.5% of voters do care, a lot.

    But how do we get an extra 5% of voters to care, if they are not directly affected?

    Hard, but not impossible. See my Avaanz post above.

  21. Tristo @ #1219 Friday, June 7th, 2019 – 7:15 am

    A question I want to ask do the voters, especially those voted for the Government care at all about the raids? Because it was notable that Peter Dutton was re-elected in his seat of Dickson with a swing towards him.

    I doubt it very much. We have become very selfish in Australia and atomised. So if it doesn’t affect us or our family we just don’t care and probably think they asked for it for threatening national security, as this government has conditioned people to think that ‘national security’ is important. Thanks for nothing, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton.

  22. @Douglas and Milko

    Getup! should look at what Avaaz as done, although the government certainly has Getup! in it’s sights now.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Waleed Aly explains why Australians should be worried by the AFP raids on the press. It’s a very good essay.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/if-you-aren-t-worried-about-the-abc-raids-here-s-why-you-should-be-20190606-p51v0h.html
    Bevan Shields writes that the recent AFP rids could trigger a major dispute between the Morrison government and Australia’s media companies. I hope they do!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/possible-prosecution-of-journalists-sends-shockwaves-through-australian-media-20190606-p51v8i.html
    Greg Barnes says that what is at stake is freedom of speech and the ability of the media to properly scrutinise executive government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/freedom-of-the-media-and-freedom-of-speech-are-fragile-rights-20190606-p51v0i.html
    Phil Coorey writes that the AFP’s media raids show national security laws being abused.
    https://www.outline.com/TLd55Z
    Michelle Grattan begins her contribution on the matter with, “Scott Morrison is very concerned to protect freedom of religion, and many Liberals tell us we don’t have enough safeguards for freedom of speech. Now the prime minister has on his hands a massive, unexpected and, for him, unwelcome argument about media freedom” and concludes with “Media freedom is as important a debate as those around religious freedom and free speech.”
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-media-freedom-joins-the-current-freedoms-agenda-118413
    Dr Jennifer Wilson looks at some of the repercussions of the journalistic AFP raids from both within and outside the media.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/afp-raids-an-assault-on-journalistic-freedom,12780
    Peter Greste writes that the recent raids by the Australian federal police on the News Corp journalist Annika Smethurst and the ABC are a serious threat to the most fundamental role that the media plays in a democracy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jun/06/the-raid-on-the-abc-shows-we-need-a-law-to-protect-journalists-and-their-sources
    And Jennifer Hewett says Scott Morrison wasn’t expecting the eruption of problems stemming from the AFP’s heavy handed raids on journalists – but it’s something he has to deal with, sensibly.
    https://www.outline.com/Z4jUmd
    Labor has accused Morrison of uttering “hollow words” in the wake of the AFP raids on the media.
    https://www.outline.com/VGeBc7
    Raids on the homes and workplaces of journalists will have a chilling effect on public servants considering speaking up on issues at work and highlight the need for an overhaul in whistleblower laws, experts say.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6204413/how-public-servants-will-react-to-the-afp-raids/?cs=14350
    The Australian federal police will be called before a parliamentary committee to explain its decision to launch raids on journalists, as a Labor senator calls for a massive expansion of parliamentary oversight of police and security agencies.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jun/07/australian-federal-police-to-be-grilled-over-media-raids-when-parliament-returns
    Christopher Knaus writes that the military lawyer whose leaks prompted this week’s police raids on the ABC has criticised Australia’s whistleblower protections as a “sham”, saying the government is acting like a “totalitarian regime” to shield itself from criticism.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jun/06/whistleblower-protections-a-sham-says-lawyer-whose-leaks-led-to-abc-raids
    Labor would consider reversing its opposition to $20 billion of the Coalition’s planned income tax cuts if the government agrees to bring them forward to July to stimulate the economy, reports Eryk Bagshaw.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-opens-door-to-20b-tax-cut-compromise-20190606-p51v4f.html
    Frydenberg says the federal government is prepared to expand its economic policy agenda beyond the measures it took to the election.
    https://www.outline.com/7Kknae
    THE LATEST data dumps confirm the current administration is not only the worst economic manager in Australia’s post war history, if not all its history, but one of the two or three worst in the developed world. If Prime Minister Scott Morrison went to the election in May to beat potentially bad economic news, it was an extremely well-judged decision, writes Alan Austin.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/a-sudden-rush-of-actual-news-on-australias-economy-all-of-it-bad/
    Nicole Hasham exasperates over Angus Taylor shrugging off official data showing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions have risen for a third year, saying the figures ignore the contribution of gas exports to lowering pollution overseas.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/energy-minister-defends-australia-s-growing-greenhouse-gas-emissions-20190531-p51t8s.html
    Meanwhile a report by Melbourne University says transitioning to a clean economy and reducing emissions would save the economy $549 billion over the next decade.
    https://www.outline.com/E4e9Pq
    Scott Morrison has earned an $11,000-a-year pay rise on the same day some of Australia’s lowest-paid workers had their penalty rates cut, Reports Sam Maiden.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/06/scott-morrison-pay-rise/
    As Scott Morrison swans around London visiting the Queen, armed with the biography of a horse, Dave Donovan describes nine national disasters just since the election.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/three-crazy-weeks–three-long-years-nine-national-disasters,12781
    Peter Kahlil pours scorn on Jason Wood lacking understanding of the experiences of new migrants and insulting the millions of people who have made Australia the wonderful egalitarian country that we are today.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-came-here-precisely-because-we-knew-what-it-means-to-be-australian-20190606-p51v7n.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz tells us how this weekend may be the last chance to head off a global downturn.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/this-weekend-may-be-the-last-chance-to-head-off-a-global-downturn-20190606-p51v29.html
    Peter Marks, an academic and George Orwell expert, writes about the author’s prescience with the novel “1984”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/books/nineteen-eighty-four-turns-70-and-orwell-s-as-vital-as-ever-20190606-p51v8j.html
    Australian tax officials are investigating a dozen transnational high-end tax avoidance schemes detected through global data sharing by key countries focused on the abuse of cryptocurrencies. I hope they are successful.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-targets-cryptocurrencies-in-international-tax-crackdown-20190606-p51v0a.html
    After a train wreck of a day, George Pell’s fate hinges on alibi evidence, writes David Marr.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/06/train-wreck-george-pell-fate-hinges-alibi-evidence
    This year 12 student implores politicians and fellow citizens to tackle climate change – and seize the economic opportunities of renewable energy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/today-s-lesson-a-safe-planet-is-a-human-right-20190606-p51v4q.html
    As the official cash rate heads towards 1 per cent or less, there will be increased pressure on the profit margins of the big four banks and that will ultimately flow through to dividends.
    https://www.outline.com/H5HhqZ
    Bloomberg gives us the inside story of how the $53 billion Fiat-Renault merger fell apart.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/end-of-the-road-how-the-53-billion-fiat-renault-merger-fell-apart-in-days-20190607-p51vdj.html
    The ACCC is going after Kogan over misleading discounts .
    https://www.outline.com/yE4JJ5
    The Australian definition of lamb is about to change – and the nation’s lamb lovers will be none the wiser.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/dressing-hogget-up-as-lamb-australia-redefines-what-makes-a-lamb-chop-lamb-20190606-p51v2e.html
    This German nurse has to be nominated for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/german-nurse-gets-life-in-prison-after-being-convicted-of-murdering-85-patients-20190606-p51vc4.html

    Cartoon Corner. Unsurprisingly the AFP press raids are front and centre today.

    From an angry Cathy Wilcox.

    From Matt Golding.




    Simon Letch chimes in.


    As does Andrew Dyson.

    And David Pope.

    And Mark David.

    And Glen Le Lievre.

    Even Zanetti.

    Sean Leahy and the big Queensland divide.

    And he celebrates Queensland’s state of origin win.

    Zanetti goes to the rugby too.

    David Rowe goes at Trump again.

    Jon Kudelka visits a journos’ watering hole.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/368ed034cc8932eedcdee576f1f1d9fa?width=1024

    From the US.




  24. Thanks BK. I enjoyed Waleed Aly’s article, and hope that these AFP raids are the kind of Dutton over-reach that ensures we get better parliamentary scrutiny of so-called national security legislation.

    This all follows years of News Corp’s championing of radically expanded counter-terrorism measures, attacking those who criticise them as “soft on terror”, or waving through other apparently political raids such as those done on Labor staffers’ offices at the behest of NBN Co. It follows an established political pattern of the Coalition proposing ever-expanding security powers and the Labor party signing up as quickly as possible with barely any public scrutiny, even passing laws it accepts are flawed to avoid being attacked on national security grounds.

  25. This suggests that Dutton may not be so bright, but rehearses his responses well in advance of interviews.

    Ross Mueller@TheMuellerName
    5m5 minutes ago

    Replying to @TheTodayShow @AlboMP @PeterDuttonMp
    Dutton can’t help himself… refers to “the Shorten Government “ in his first response to the interview… that’s what he expected was going to be the outcome of the election when he set up the raids, no doubt #auspol

  26. Thank you, BK

    As a follow up to yesterday’s discussion about the statue of Wentworth, the ACT Government has just decided to drop Sir William Slim’s name from a road.

    This was done as a consequence of two sets of allegations, both made after Slim’s death. Neither allegation was corroborated. One of the allegations involving a boy who was at notorious Fairbridge at the time which might be said to amount to guilt by association.

    Slim was a GG as well as the rather excellent military leader who commanded the drive to evict the Japanese from India and most of the way through Burma by the war’s end. That this campaign made no difference to either the end date or the ultimate outcome of WW2 may charitably be said to be neither here nor there.

    Rename Sir William Slim Drive? Right decision? Wrong decision?

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6203065/major-canberra-road-to-be-renamed-after-governor-general-abuse-claims/?cs=14225

  27. ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, June 6, 2019 at 11:13 pm

    Mb
    Ministers must do similar things and have signals to tell their staff when to wrap a meeting up rather than them doing it so they don’t look rude or unsympathetic.’

    Some do some of the time – particularly in relation to foreigners of status in formal contexts.
    But in the daily grind, if a minister decides it’s time, s/he calls time. What does happen is a staffer comes and tells the minister that the next meeting participants are waiting and the minister ploughs on.

  28. ‘bug1 says:
    Friday, June 7, 2019 at 8:11 am

    Julian Assange seems to be getting by ok in prison, leaked interview (how appropriate)
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/06/exclusive-interview-belmarsh-prison-inmate-provides-photos-of-julian-assange-says-internet-is-the-one-thing-they-cant-control/

    Spare a thought for whistleblowers Richard Boyle, ‘Witness K’ and lawyer Bernard Collaery as well.’

    Yep. All this will be fixed when the Greens form government.

  29. Dutton can’t help himself… refers to “the Shorten Government “ in his first response to the interview… that’s what he expected was going to be the outcome of the election when he set up the raids

    I’m far from a fan of the AFP, and I think they seriously screwed this whole situation up – the latest in a long, growing list of AFP under/non-performance and bad judgment calls.

    However, it does occur to me that the AFP may have been as misled by the polling as everyone else … if they were assuming a change of government it may have made sense that an incoming government/Home Affairs minister/AG might have taken a different perspective on whether/how vigorously to pursue these matters. Once the election confirmed the return of Dutton/Morrison the AFP had nowhere left to go but to bring these matters to a head.

    Clearly the raids had been put off to avoid becoming election-deciding issues in the heat of a campaign – exactly how long they were put off, and what the rationale was, is a very interesting question given the investigations have been going on for years.

  30. How good is being Prime Minister! Another $11K pay increase for ScoMo, taking him to $540K plus expenses. The $11K is about 3/4 of the annual value of Newstart ($14K).
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/06/scott-morrison-pay-rise/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190607

    The 2% pay rise is higher than both inflation and GDP growth, and much higher than what the private sector has been getting. Performance based? Maybe he is trying to lead by example in terms of getting wages growing again. He hopes it will trickle down.

  31. If economic growth stalls and unemployment rises, I fervently hope the government proves its fetish about budget surpluses was just empty rhetoric, and decides to send the budget into deficit. Monetary policy cannot do all the heavy lifting to keep our economy above water: expansionary fiscal policy is needed too.

  32. Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy
    19h19 hours ago

    The legislation says the AFP can “alter” a document. It’s complex says the AFP. No it’s not. You can drive a truck through that clause.

  33. I’m sorry to learn that there is going to be a hiatus in the Insiders from now until 2020, with fill-ins until Speers has worked out his contract with Sky.

  34. Uday and Qusay Trump were the stars of the show at a pub in Ireland.

    As parties go, it’s hard to top a state dinner with the queen of England, but President Trump’s sons — Donald Jr. and Eric — tried to keep the revelry going during an impromptu pub crawl in Doonbeg, Ireland, where they bought rounds of Guinness for the locals and reveled in the adoration of a village where the Trump family owns property.

    “It’s exciting when Trump comes into town, isn’t it?” Eric Trump declared Wednesday evening amid the festivities.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/these-boys-were-on-a-holiday-trump-family-members-promote-themselves-and-businesses-on-european-trip/2019/06/06/0a5c83fc-8869-11e9-98c1-e945ae5db8fb_story.html?utm_term=.f16b8645e491

  35. Useless, lazy government.

    11 days in July, 8 days in September, 8 days in October, 4 days in November, 4 Days in December.

    But if you only have one thing on your legislative agenda, you don’t need many sitting days.

  36. I never normally indulge in conspiracy theories but I’m prepared to be cynical and this government does have me wondering if the Chinese warships’ visit to Sydney Harbour was intended to be a booby trap for the expected incoming Labor government.

  37. A trio of Chinese naval ships is readying to sail out of Sydney Harbour, leaving behind a political storm.

    A Liberal backbencher and former minister says there is no doubt the ships’ visit – which came as a surprise to many – was a projection of power.

    “The decision to approve the visit to coincide with the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre was not only insensitive but demonstrates that Beijing can dictate terms and we just acquiesce,” Concetta Fierravanti-Wells writes in The Australian on Friday.

    “Scott Morrison’s cabinet of groupthinkers and those responsible for the decision have sought refuge in appeasement. They were totally outmanoeuvred by Beijing.”

    The senator says Australia should not be afraid to call out China “where it has failed to demonstrate the credentials of a good international citizen”.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/chinese-ships-cause-government-conflict?cid=news:socialshare:twitter

  38. Michael A @ #1238 Friday, June 7th, 2019 – 7:26 am

    I fervently hope the government proves its fetish about budget surpluses was just empty rhetoric, and decides to send the budget into deficit.

    You’re dreaming. It’ll be austerity for all and a rise in the GST. Nothing will be allowed to stand in the way of their surplus fetish.

    LNP – for the few, not the many.

  39. Michael J. Biercuk@MJBiercuk
    3m3 minutes ago

    The #bureaucracy is STRONG in #Australia.

    It’s more compliant with accessibility regs to *remove* a disabled access ramp – giving ZERO accessibility – than to leave a ramp that may not meet the most modern standards for accessibility. #sydneytrains

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-only-people-who-benefit-are-stair-enthusiasts-sydney-trains-ramp-closure-angers-and-bemuses-20190606-p51v93.html

  40. Phillip Lodge
    @phlogga
    14h14 hours ago

    Just watched 7.30 report on veterans payouts for medical discharge. Stuart Robert right in the middle of this bastardy. This is a government that busted its arse to protect the wealth of a few well off retirees but shafting our vets. If you voted for this mob you’ve been conned

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