So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.
Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.
As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.
There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.
We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.
Geez that tory boy Matty Doran needs a bib and some Snuggies I reckon.
He still hasn’t come down from Scrotties ‘sweeping victory’….
C@t:
I’m actually in two minds about that George Will article. Yes the political context needs to be taken into account for impeachment, and against the backdrop of the Mueller report which didn’t bring any concrete finds of obstruction or collusion against Trump, impeachment is a hard sell to the public.
However, just because he is governing like everyone thought he would doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be impeached if there is clear evidence of wrong-doing. I think Will is right that the public perception of impeachment is that it’s a partisan tool rather than a mechanism to remove a corrupt president. Agree that Democrats need to hasten slowly on this, collecting as much demonstrable evidence they can of Trump’s obstruction and corruption.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Frydenberg has personally urged the nation’s biggest banks to pass on all of an expected 0.25 percentage point cut in official interest rates today as the Reserve Bank of Australia seeks to drive unemployment down towards 4 per cent.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/banks-under-pressure-to-pass-on-any-rba-rate-cut-in-full-20190603-p51txx.html
The AFR says that today the RBA’s Philip Lowe will move from words to action.
https://www.outline.com/WwVDTY
While federal Labor had promised $3 billion for Sydney Metro West prior to the election, the Coalition has not said whether it will commit any funding to the ambitious rail project whose total cost is said to be $20 billion.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/push-for-pm-to-commit-money-to-building-20b-metro-line-to-sydney-s-west-20190522-p51q0w.html
Michael Koziol wonders if Keneally can win her promised attack on Dutton.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/keneally-has-vowed-to-take-fight-to-dutton-but-is-it-a-battle-she-can-win-20190603-p51tzw.html
Labor’s decision to adopt the Home Affairs portfolio does not mean it will keep it in government, amid concerns among top security agencies that the merged department is not working as well as the old arrangements, reports the AFR.
https://www.outline.com/8wn4Mf
Sam Maiden reveals how Morrison knew he wouldn’t be able to pass tax cuts by July 1.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/03/tax-cuts-scott-morrison/
Greg Jericho writes that despite weak growth in GDP and wages, a rise in investment suggests a recession is becoming less likely.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/jun/04/its-a-big-week-for-the-economy-but-there-is-hope-that-things-might-improve
Emma Koehn reports that the tax office says despite years of crack downs many of the deductions Aussies are filing for work clothing and laundry expenses don’t pass the smell test.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/tax-office-wants-the-truth-on-what-s-in-your-wardrobe-20190603-p51txy.html
Ian Dunlop writes that we must mobilise for the climate emergency like we do in wartime and asks where the climate minister is.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2019/jun/03/we-must-mobilise-for-the-climate-emergency-like-we-do-in-war-time-where-is-the-climate-minister
Meanwhile Labor and the Greens have demanded the government immediately release national greenhouse emissions data, and have warned the new emissions reduction minister could be in contempt of parliament for missing the deadline to publish the figures.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/03/disgrace-angus-taylor-under-pressure-after-failing-to-release-emissions-data
Australia’s election results are routinely distorted by fake news about the economy. Alan Austin explores what this might mean in seats won and lost.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/how-many-seats-will-the-coalition-win-when-the-truth-is-actually-told,12769
Alexandra Smith tells us that Fred Nile is facing a revolt within his party after moves from some members to overthrow him and the party’s board. Couldn’t happen to a nicer mob!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/fred-nile-in-unholy-row-dividing-his-christian-democratic-party-20190603-p51u06.html
Sally Whyte writes that Katy Gallagher says the Prime Minister can’t lecture the public service on “congestion busting” without showing leadership and providing resources for reform.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6197111/gallagher-warns-pm-against-finger-waving-at-bureaucracy/?cs=14225
According to Shane Wright the Productivity Commission has blamed falling investment in research and development and a lack of innovation by local firms for the nation’s “mediocre” productivity growth.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/productivity-growth-mediocre-as-businesses-cut-r-and-d-and-innovation-spending-20190603-p51tvd.html
The average pay packets of finance industry chairs, board members, and chief executives have slumped in wake of the royal commission, a new survey says.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/finance-ceos-and-chairmen-hit-with-11pc-hayne-pay-cut-20190603-p51u2w.html
Adam Carey reports that the water level in one of Melbourne’s most important dams has been restricted because of an “intolerable” risk that the dam wall could fail, causing catastrophic flooding as far afield as Melbourne’s inner suburbs.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/major-melbourne-dam-needs-repair-to-lower-risk-of-catastrophic-flood-20190603-p51u14.html
If retail funds had performed at the same level as industry funds, Australians would be $135 billion better off, writes Brett Himbury in the AFR.
https://www.outline.com/48VVG8
An angry Jenna Price expounds on the lies spread about abortion during the election campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/miserable-purposeful-lies-should-not-be-part-of-our-politics-20190603-p51tzd.html
Peter Hartcher begins his article with “The US is throwing punches wildly at smaller powers, imposing trade penalties in breach of the global rules. China is grabbing the maritime territories of smaller neighbours and building military bases on them, in stunning disregard of the international order.” He says Trump and Xi have departed from the cool rationality that gave the world unprecedented peace and prosperity for the past 70 years..
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/era-of-cool-rationality-replaced-by-us-china-fight-club-20190603-p51tvu.html
This former Channel 7 newsreader is in a spot of bother with the tax man!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ex-channel-7-newsreader-faces-court-over-alleged-1-85m-tax-evasion-20190603-p51u2d.html
The Australian government and senior intelligence officials argue the western alliance of intelligence-sharing partners need a united position on Huawei.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/huawei-20190603-p51tur.html
The Lord Mayor of London has got under Trump’s skin.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/trump-meets-the-queen-escalates-feud-with-london-mayor-20190603-p51u22.html
Trump drops a flurry of tweets as he arrives in London.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/03/donald-trump-arrives-in-buckingham-palace-for-state-visit
Oil has edged closer to a bear market collapse as Wall Street banks raised the spectre of a recession, while Saudi Arabia tried to assure investors that OPEC will avert a supply glut.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/oil-heading-towards-bear-market-as-recession-warnings-spread-20190604-p51u5t.html
Now wing defaults have hit Boeing’s troubled 737 MAX.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/06/03/boeing-737-max-default/
Amazon’s new and improved virtual assistant system Alexa is set to become another shade of creepy, with plans to record every conversation inside our homes.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2019/06/03/hey-alexa-privacy/
He’s been out of gaol for five minutes and our mate Mehajer has been returned there for breaching bail conditions by allegedly contacting witnesses. Surely enough for nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”. Again!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-04/salim-mehajer-back-in-court-over-bail-breach-after-prison-stint/11175178
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe gives Dutton a makeover.
From Matt Golding.
Cathy Wilcox returns to Tiananmen Square.
As does David Pope.
Peter Broelman takes us to the outskirts of New England.
John Shakespeare gives KK a run.
Dione Gain on the effect on Australia by the US/China trade war.
Similarly from Andrew Dyson.
Zanetti on the Solomon Islands. BTW is his depiction of the islander any less objectionable that Knight’s of Serena Williams?
Jon Kudelka on KK’s previous stance on boat turn backs.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b646a18ae606ece7b7947f2db6cf1d18?width=1024
From the US
C@tmomma says: Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 7:38 am
phoenixRED,
Did you read this piece put up by Confessions yesterday, by George Will:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/impeachment-would-be-a-debacle/2019/05/31/61474462-8315-11e9-933d-7501070ee669_story.html?utm_term=.a95591042699
***********************************************
Thanks C@t – As Confessions said that Nancy Pelosi is resisting all the advice from her own team to rush into impeachment ……. but to bit by bit put the pieces out to the public until some general public consensus MAY happen as to proceed with impeachment ….. Pelosi knows without GOP SENATE support for impeachment – at this stage – its unlikely she will rush into it …
The Green’s “same-same”, and “stop-Adani” messages are negative, simple, but unfortunately they did cut through. I do not think it was the major factor in the ALP loss, but this Greens messaging, particularly in the campaign, where their message was “Do not vote for the duopoly” did hurt Labor, and probably helped drive up the informal vote.
Also, The Greens do graphics better than Labor. Those bloody ‘Stop Adani’ earrings! Plus the Angry Red, outlined in Cold White, placards. Not that it did them any good in the end because the Coalition just did same-same with The Greens and had their ‘Start Adani’ t-shirts. So, in the end all The Greens and their ‘Stop Adani’ campaign achieved was, ‘Start Adani’, as voters in the Queensland seats flocked to the Coalition.
Also, how many of the increased number of Informal votes, that I actually saw on the day when I scrutineered, just blank pages, were the young people who bothered to turn up to have their names marked off? Let alone the young people who just didn’t vote for the ‘duopoly’ because they knew their vote would end up with one of them in the end?
As a result, even though The Greens didn’t get any more House of Reps seats, they have now arrogated unto themselves the sanctimonious right to blight PB for another 3 years, led by their Cut and Paste Queen Pegasus. 🙄
Morning all
I expect rates to be cut today. Despite Morrisons bluster, the economy is anaemic
Also what was the go with the Chinese war ships. And where is Clive? I expected him to pop up to blame Bill Shorten and the WA Premier.
You know it makes sense!
phoenixRED @ #454 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 7:56 am
Yes, and Trump would just use it in the run-up to 2020. he’d gambol and prance about the country playing the victim card and riling up his base against the cosmopolitans in the Democrats.
No, I reckon the Dems should just concentrate on policy again. It’s Trump’s Achilles Heel. 🙂
Thanks BK. I hope Greg Jericho is right about the reduced likelihood of recession. Imagine the further damage this govt would do to a country in recession?
Should we be surprised that Brexit is just a ruse for the elites aka oligarchs to raid the public purse.
Those who voted for Brexit, are much like those who voted for Trump. Absolute fools
Michael West:
PwC charges poor children’s charity audit fees but does right-wing think tank, The Sydney Institute, for free (and gets it wrong oops) michaelwest.com.au/investigation-…
#auspol
Trump is petrified of any financial information being exposed to the public.
He is an imposter and a fraud. Not forgetting a treasonous bast@@d.
Yep, hence the efforts he’s gone to in order to stop Democrats getting his tax returns. Can you imagine the reaction from Republicans if this were a Democrat Potus behaving like this? But because it’s one of theirs, they say nothing.
I’ve had my first vision from the next parliament.
KK won’t last 6 months against Potato.
She’ll either shrink without trace or get shuffled out.
I’m backing shrink.
Confessions @ #458 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 8:00 am
I have. Bring it on. It’s the only way Labor gets back.
Ferguson just pursued the story in the interest of the whistleblower in a manner which was completely uninformative.
What is his response to the charges? We didn’t even know if he is it to plead guilty or not guilty. Does he accept that he recorded other workers’ private telephone conversations? That would be a concern for those workers. Have they suffered any negative affect?
Further, what’s the concern about this garnishee program? We are talking about people who supposedly don’t pay their tax. They won’t be PAYE. It could be monies which have been deducted from the salaries of workers by employers which are then not remitted to the ATO.
@mundo
I screenshot that thankfully Pb keeps date and time.
Zoidlord @ #466 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 8:23 am
Come in spinner.
Re: ABC
NICKROSS:
Thanks but I wouldn’t watch those hypocrites if you paid me. @ABCmediawatch are the worst offenders in Aus at bullying journalists. But remember @ItaButtrose ‘s MD job spec didn’t even mention journalism, just managing govt. @gavmorris has been there for all this #auspol
It’s absolutely pathetic that Labor are such sore losers that they are blaming the Greens for their own failures. Ultra conservative parts of Qld were always going to vote conservatively, regardless of Adani. Labor’s failure on this issue was to sit on the fence. Supporting Adani one minute, then backing off the next, then supporting it again didn’t make anyone happy. Labor failed to win the support of either environmentalists or the coal industry.
The brutal truth that Labor can’t seem to accept is that they completely fucked up and lost an election that they should have wiped the Liberals out in. The Greens had a very strong result, Labor didn’t and they have absolutely nobody but themselves (and to be fair the Murdoch media too) to blame for that.
Hey Greenies
Stop rocking the boat.
@Firefox
Labor didn’t loose the election Firefox.
It’s media and stupid voters, who signing their own death warrant via unemployment and pollution.
Thank you BK.
I am intrigued by your line:
‘Now wing defaults have hit Boeing’s troubled 737 MAX.’
Have they found some new way of getting the 737 airborne without a wing?
Investors are giving up hope in Australian economy:
https://amp.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-next-world-shock-we-don-t-escape-australia-s-record-breaking-economic-run-in-jeopardy-20190603-p51tt8.html
How good is this… Morrison was lying all along about immediate tax relief.
Does this help with the bickering?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/04/post-election-research-shows-11-of-voters-made-up-their-mind-on-polling-day
Boerwar
Since moving to the New Daily Sam Maiden has been coming up with a lot of good stuff.
@JimchamblersMP
This shows Morrison never intended to keep his promise on tax cuts. He has some serious explaining to do.
No, but keeping them on the ground is an (optional) safety feature.
The Greens nationally had a swing of 0.14% to them. I wouldn’t be claiming that as a ‘strong result.’
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm
Boerwar @ #474 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 8:31 am
Apparently Labor is all over this. Expect some fire works from Albo and the team today!
How good is New Labor!
Some years ago when I was a subscriber to Crikey under Stephen Mayne’s stewardship he started a ‘Sackwatch’ page which recorded redundancies around the early Kevin Rudd years (aka GFC)
So I’d like to revive that list just to illustrate how the LNP cannot manage the economy etc.
– Telstra 6,000 redundancies brought forward in 2019
– NewsCorp 50+ and more announced yesterday. How’s the mood in the Herald Sun today boys and girls good? You muppets.
– predicted Myer 5,000+ with most stores closing in six months except so called flagship stores (ie Bourke Street etc)
– Carlton Football Club – one coach. The smug arrogant and lazy players and board stay in … for now… but there is rumblings from members for a 100% cleanout
@zoomster
It’s abit like claiming a ‘Strong Government’ or ‘Strong Economy’..
When it moves at snail pace.
Just begging for a caption….
Zoidlord @ #477 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 8:34 am
He sure does.
Albo and the team will holding a blow torch to Scrotties undies today!!!
‘Firefox says:
Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 8:25 am
It’s absolutely pathetic that Labor are such sore losers that they are blaming the Greens for their own failures. ‘
Uh huh. Labor made significant mistakes. The Coalition and its friends spent over a half a billion messaging lies, half-lies and distorted realities. In the three years to the election the Greens criticized Labor four times as often as it did the Coalition. During the election the Greens focussed on wedging Labor. Di Natale focused on attacking and undermining Shorten. The Greens sent 20% of their preferences to assorted right wingers.
It is what it is.
Sgh1969
You can add 9900 virtual job losses from the Adani project.
I think the Green convoy probably helped to polarise opinion.
So while it may have attracted some votes to the Greens it probably drove more to the Right.
Good for the Greens, bad for progressive politics!
Joshy is trying to strong arm the banks on rate cuts.
Pitty he didn’t do the same for the tax avoidance from them:
https://www.perthnow.com.au/business/economy/treasurer-josh-frydenbergs-warning-to-australian-banks-ahead-of-cash-rate-cut-ng-b881219725z
@mundo
Greenies doing fuck all again.
Lazy sods protecting Liberals and the filthy blood money.
Barney:
When you have the likes of LNP MPs such as O’Dowd, Christensen and Barnaby thanking the Greens Adani convoy, you know precisely who benefited from it.
It would be interesting to know what voter turnout was by age group.
I have a hypothesis that voter turnout was considerably lower among 18-24’s than older age groups.
@Barney in Makassar
I predict the whole climate change is just going to get more polarised.
Political parties will get rewarded or punished voters depending on what side of the fence they are seen to be on. Look at how Brexit has done this to the British electorate.
I think that when the Department of Human Services is rebranded as Services Australia, the Coalition is simply admitting the truth that they wish to remove humanitarian considerations from their decisions (and basically remove humans, too, replacing them with algorithms).
Because he lies shamelessly and frequently?
I wouldnt be judging any issue on their crowing.
Albo is on a winner to demand scumo recall parliament pass the first tranch of lower and middle income tax cuts before 30 June. And if the LNP don’t labot needs to make a big thing of scumo’s deceit and first big lie.
there will be many of them, with the main one being ‘the surplus’
Perhaps KK needs to refine her argument a little more. May be rushing in a bit.
Yeah, Labor lost in places where the jobs/environment wedges worked best for Labor’s opponents, the Greens and the Libs, most notably in QLD.
The Greens have been doing a Thatcher – politically exploiting coal miners. It worked for Thatcher. It’s working for the Greens too. The Liberals have been doing a Trump, and that works for them too. The Greens and the Liberals manufacture fear. They are very adroit at this game. Labor seemed to think they could rise above the fear. How wrong they were.
‘Abridged’ until it formed a quarto page of text? 😉
Residents of the Blue Mountains have been isolated as heavy snow blankets the region 62km west of Sydney.
Authorities warned commuters that roads have been closed and that the commute to Sydney was not possible.
More than 5cm of snow blanketed a number of suburbs, including Blackheath, Katoomba and Mount Victoria as locals woke to frosty -8C conditions.
It covered rooftops and cars but it was the thick layer of snow and ice on the roads that was the problem.
Those who did attempt the 62km drive were met by a number of traffic incidents that closed the Great Western Highway at Katoomba and Mount Victoria. In one of those incidents, a B-Double truck jack-knifed.