From my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday:
In the wake of its most unambiguous failure at a federal election since at least 1980, Australia’s polling industry is licking its wounds.
The Nine/Fairfax papers have announced the Ipsos poll series will be put on ice, and those pollsters who do return to the field shortly will face catcalls whether they persist in recording a Labor lead we now know doesn’t exist, or only now start detecting a Coalition lead that eluded them through the entirety of the past parliamentary term.
Despite it all though, the pollsters’ performance hasn’t been without its defenders.
Spoiler alert: the latter refers to David Briggs and Nate Silver. But Peter Brent can now be added to the list, up to a point, following a review of the issues raised by the polling failure in Inside Story. Specifically, Brent observes that the primary vote miss was less severe than the two-party preferred; that the difference arose from a stronger-than-anticipated flow of minor party and independent preferences to the Coalition; that herding was less apparent on the primary vote (most markedly in the case of Ipsos’s reading of the balance of support between Labor and the Greens); and that the result was, if nothing else, no worse than the Victorian state election.
Another point noted is the strange consistency with which polls have pointed to extravagant gains for Labor in Queensland before and during election campaigns, only for them to fall away at the end. On this occasion, the falling away as recorded by pollsters wasn’t remotely on the scale needed to predict the result, with statewide polling published towards the end of the campaign landing at least 7% shy of what looks like being the Coalition two-party vote in the state.
The question of geographic variability in the pollster failure seemed worth exploring, so I have put together a table of state and electorate level polling published in the last fortnight or so of the campaign, available below the fold at the bottom of the post. Almost all of this polling was conducted by YouGov Galaxy, whether under its own name or as Newspoll. The only exception was a set of state-level two-party preferred totals from Ipsos, published at the tail end of the campaign by the Age-Herald (which performed rather poorly).
Below all this is a list of “average bias” figures, consisting of straight averages of the observed errors, be they positive or negative, rather than the absolute errors. This means combinations of positive and negative results will have the fact of cancelling out — although there were actually very few of those, as the errors tended to be consistently in the one direction. The national and state-level two-party results are estimates provided to me by Nine’s election systems consultant David Quin. With no Coalition-versus-Labor figures available from 15 electorates, this inevitably involves a fair bit of guess work.
A few points should be observed. Given that poll trends pointed to a clear long-term trend to the Coalition, pollsters may be excused a certain amount of Labor bias when evaluating polling that was in many cases conducted over a week before the election. This is particularly true of the Newspoll state aggregates, which cover the full length of the campaign.
Another issue with the Newspoll state aggregates is that One Nation was a response option for all respondents in the early part of the campaign, despite their contesting only 59 out of 151 seats. Their vote here accordingly comes in too high, and as Peter Brent notes, at least part of their failure could be explained by stranded One Nation supporters breaking in unexpectedly large quantities to the Coalition, rather than other minor party targets of opportunity like Clive Palmer.
In seat polling though, where the issue did not arise, the polls were remarkable in having understated support for One Nation, and overstated it for the United Australia Party. This was one face of a two-sided polling failure in Queensland, of which the other was a serious imbalance towards Labor in support recorded for the major parties. While Queensland has caught most of the attention on this score, the polls were just as far out in measuring the primary votes of the major parties in Western Australia. Things were less bad in Victoria, but Coalition support was still significantly underestimated.
The only bright spots in the picture are New South Wales and South Australia, where Newspoll just about nailed the Coalition, Labor and Greens primary votes, and got the big things right in four seat polls. While Labor’s strength was overstated in Macquarie, it does now appear Labor will pull through there – for more on that front, stay tuned to the late counting thread.
I have met a lot of voters and saw the Lib campaigns up close right thru the campaign and polling periods. We got smashed in WA. Absolutely smashed. And yet we did better here than in QLD.
The forces that drove this are only going to get more pronounced.
Dan Gulberry says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 12:40 pm
Alpo @ #961 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 9:19 am
The turning point is going to be bloody Corbyn finally supporting a second Brexit referendum.
I’m still waiting to see any evidence, rather than extrapolating polls for various parties, that a second referendum would overturn the first one.
________________________________
The issue is not whether it is overturned – the issue is that the first referendum was totally infiltrated by lies, fraud and criminal hacking. At least if the population votes to Brexit again (even by the same small margin) they will be taking ownership of the cluster*ck.
briefly says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 11:57 am
…”It is no wonder at all that voters are so perplexed, so alienated and so gloomy”…
Yep, it ain’t no mystery.
briefly says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 9:54 am
…”There will be nothing but heartache”…
…”We are fucked… Get used to it”…
…”the LNP will be in office for decades”…
…”We are all thoroughly fucked”…
…”We will continue to lose”…
…”Bludgers… we are fucked”…
There’s more, but I thought these worthy of collation.
Not Sure….
Repetition works.
And we are being repeatedly fucked by the combo of the Lib -Libs and the Lib-kin.
We better learn to like it.
TPOF @ #1002 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 10:45 am
According to some on here it is.
briefly @ #997 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 12:44 pm
Labors ‘ground game’ was supposed to be the ants pants.
I guess ground games are overrated. Clive proved the point with his cut through messaging.
Briefly was wrong about nature campaigning against the Libs, he was wrong about the landslide he saw coming this election, he’s wrong about the Greens. Let’s just assume that Briefly is just wrong about everything.
Brexit is an example of the Right-shift in the expression of sections of the working class in England and Wales.
As in this country, they have become weak, divided, self-cannibalising and self-defeating.
They will be ruthlessly exploited by the aristocracy, as indeed we are also exploited.
briefly says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 12:46 pm
…”Repetition works”…
I thought those overly poetic descriptions of stuff you were having for dinner were a bit repetitive too.
But at least they didn’t make me want to emigrate to another country or take a long walk off a short plank.
Not Sure @ #1000 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 12:46 pm
Echo chambers can have devastating effects.
Rex…yes, the field campaigns failed. Miserably. We are fucked.
And yet Briefly was updating us daily on how people were wanting change, they were angry and want to vote for the ALP.
briefly @ #997 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 12:44 pm
I’m sure it is just a coincidence 😉
Maybe the ALP should just disband. The Left can merge with the Greens, the Right can just go and reform the DLP or whatever.
Perhaps the parties are better served with branch members/volunteers just donating money to advertising funds.
Not Sure…
Get used to it. We are fucked as things now stand.
Walk the beach plank if you like. I’m not that interested in the deep blue myself.
We have to face it. We have lost 4 in a row and the most recent is the worst so far. We are weak, divided, self-cannibalising and self-defeating.
The Libs win.
poroti
says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 12:55 pm
briefly @ #997 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 12:44 pm
I have met a lot of voters ……………………We got smashed in WA. Absolutely smashed. And yet we did better here than in QLD.
I’m sure it is just a coincidence
____________________________________
poroti says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 12:55 pm
…”I’m sure it is just a coincidence”…
Exactly how many Perth suburbanites were regaled with stories of salt cured sardines and lib-lings, I wonder?
nath…I was guilty of optimism. This was a mistake. The alienated voted for the Right. They will do it again. I dunno how it’s possible to take comfort from that, unless you’re also a Rightist.
It will be interesting to see Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating.
Bill Shorten’s was consistently negative ten.
It only took two election defeats to convince the caucus that maybe they should try somebody else.
briefly says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 12:57 pm
…”We have lost 4 in a row and the most recent is the worst so far. We are weak, divided, self-cannibalising and self-defeating”…
I agree, it is definitely time for the third coming of K Rudd.
We need a hero from Queensland.
Dan Gulberry says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 12:48 pm
TPOF @ #1002 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 10:45 am
The issue is not whether it is overturned
According to some on here it is.
__________________________________
There is a belief that people, given the facts, will behave sanely and without inviting self-destruction. A number of ‘democratic’ exercises in recent years have put paid to that theory.
Nevertheless, like a criminal trial that has been derailed by improper conduct by the prosecutors or other parties, the matter should still be put back to the people to ensure that a proper process occurs, even if the same result follows. One can only hope that there is a better outcome next time.
N, don’t worry. The kill-Albo campaign has already commenced. You can play your own small part in it.
Politics is no longer binary. You cant simplify it to right left anymore. SO I disagree there is a ‘right shift’.
The LNP (and other similar parties around the world) have found a way to attract some traditionally left voters through cultural/socio pitches (and lies). They broadened their church. But they dont sit happily together.
The ALP need to figure out if they want to win them all back or look other groups.
Nicholas @ #1017 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 1:03 pm
The union factional powerbrokers were misguided.
briefly says: Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 12:57 pm
The Libs win.
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Only if you let them, Briefly …… we are lucky to live in such a free and democratic country that many in the world would love to have what we have …..
Just don’t let the election sour your mind and soul to all the other wonderful things our country has to offer you in terms of happiness ….
briefly
says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 1:06 pm
N, don’t worry. The kill-Albo campaign has already commenced. You can play your own small part in it.
_________________________
Indeed. I’m running things here at the Menzies Centre right now. You’re a key asset. Don’t forget to get out there and annoy your friends, family and neighbours for the next 3 years. Play your role for us.
Simon² Katich® @ #1021 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 1:07 pm
Climate change policy has in effect broken the ‘left/right’ political system.
K Rudd managed to persuade voters in WA that Labor was opposed to their economic well-being. Queensland now believe the same thing.
The next cabs are NSW and Victoria. When voters in those electorates conclude that Labor are hostile to their economic interests then all will be lost. The Lib-Libs and the Lib-kin will be working on this every day.
The proposition that the Left/Right divide is no longer applicable is wrong.
The Libs and their clones – the National Socialists/edited by ON and the Lib-kin – are nothing but Rightwing.
Their opponents are very weak these days.
I’ve found the best way to get a voter motivated to vote liberal is having them harassed by someone in a red t-shirt telling them the way to the truth and the light. works every time.
N = Nicholas
The Libs and their clones spent more than $100 mill. We cannot match that. They hit every button. They told every lie. We were smashed.
Jim Chalmers is the new Shadow Treasurer
Richard Marles has replaced Tanya Plibersek as deputy leader of the Labor Party
Kristina Keneally has been named Home Affairs spokeswoman
Shorten awarded a shadow portfolio in Labor’s new front bench.
Labor have learned nothing. Kill Bill worked, and now they want to spread the contagion around a bit more.
The LNP would have had a failed leader out the door and into a couple of directorships before now.
Labor is intent on maximising their disadvantages. Yet again.
Those Opposition benches must be really comfortable.
Victorian MP Richard Marles is the party’s new deputy leader and has been given responsibility for the Defence portfolio.
Mr Marles replaced Tanya Plibersek as deputy leader, who keeps her Education and Training portfolio, but loses the portfolio for Women.
Queensland MP Jim Chalmers picks up the role of Shadow Treasurer, replacing Chris Bowen who pulled out of the running for the Labor leadership just a day after announcing his candidacy.
Mr Bowen has been given the Health portfolio.
Leader of the Opposition in the Senate Penny Wong maintains her Foreign Affairs portfolio.
briefly @ #1030 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 1:15 pm
Targeted messaging in key electorates.
Be my guest to take that advice to your next branch meeting.
Climate change has not broken the Left/Right choice. It has simply been best exploited by the Right. They will run with denial. It has worked all along for them.
briefly says:
Sunday, June 2, 2019 at 1:09 pm
…”K Rudd managed to persuade voters in WA that Labor was opposed to their economic well-being. Queensland now believe the same thing”…
Bullshit.
Rudd managed to convince about a million, working class, former Labor voters that he understood their problems, and had a plan to help allieviate them.
Howard managed to do this A LOT.
Looks like Morrisson, with all of his lies, has achieved precisely the same thing.
Wake up to yourself.
nath @ #1033 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 1:17 pm
Catherine King was pretty good in health. The dolt must have pulled a few factional strings in the backroom.
There’s no pension for Shorten these days. What is he going to do, get a real job? Honestly who would employ him and in what capacity?
One consequence of getting rid of the pension is that there will be more lifers hanging on well past their used by dates, seeking to cash in for as long as possible.
Rex, the meta-story is that Labor are both too Green and not Green enough. This is indelibly printed. The result is that nothing of value will be achieved in social justice or the environment. Nothing.
The Lib-Libs and the Lib-kin have won. Labor lose.
No amount of targeted advertising will change this.
Catherine King was pretty good in health. The dolt must have pulled a few factional strings in the backroom.
________________________
Indeed.
Not Sure….Rudd ruined his standing in WA with the supremely idiotic RSPT.
Yeah, like Turnbull Mk 1 and Abbott, huh?
Good grief.
“There’s no pension for Shorten these days. What is he going to do, get a real job? ”
He could have had the decency to stay on the backbench. The stink of this defeat that he trails with him would at least make less of a public stench.
There is room for Shorten in the frontbench, but not Husic?
Labor is not serious.
briefly @ #1039 Sunday, June 2nd, 2019 – 1:23 pm
Briefly,
You’re clearly going through the stages of grief. I can only suggest you get back to your branch meetings as soon as possible to gain a bit of clarity.
Things aren’t as bad as you currently may think they are.
The national listening tour should be renamed the national lecturing tour. Topics up for discussion will be whatever is trending on twitter for the day.
Hola Bludgers! Game on with this A-Team to take up the fight… compare these with Morrison’s Muppets