Sundry updates and developments:
• As noted in the regularly updated late counting post, Labor has taken a 67 vote lead in Macquarie, after trailing 39 at the close of counting yesterday. However, there is no guarantee that this represents an ongoing trend to Labor, since most of the gain came from the counting of absents, which would now be just about done. Most of the outstanding votes are out-of-division pre-polls, which could go either way. The result will determine whether the Coalition governs with 77 or 78 seats out of 151, while Labor will have either 67 or 68.
• Labor is reportedly preparing to challenge the result in Chisholm under the “misleading or deceptive publications” provision of the Electoral Act, a much ploughed but largely unproductive tillage for litigants over the years. The Victorian authorities have been rather activist in upholding “misleading or deceptive publications” complaints, but this is in the lower stakes context of challenges to the registration of how-to-vote cards, rather than to the result of an election. At issue on this occasion is Liberal Party material circulated on Chinese language social media service WeChat, which instructed readers to fill out the ballot paper in the manner recommended “to avoid an informal vote”. I await for a court to find otherwise, but this strikes me as pretty thin gruel. The Chinese community is surely aware that Australian elections presume to present voters with a choice, so the words can only be understood as an address to those who have decided to vote Liberal. Labor also have a beef with Liberal material that looked like Australian Electoral Commission material, in Chisholm and elsewhere.
• Political science heavyweights Simon Jackman and Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has breakdowns from a big sample campaign survey in The Guardian, noting that only survey data can circumvent the ecological fallacy, a matter raised in my previous post. The survey was derived from 10,316 respondents from a YouGov online panel, and conducted from April 18 to May 12. The results suggest the Coalition won through their dominance of the high income cohort (taken here to mean an annual household income of over $208,000), particularly among the self-employed, for which their primary vote is recorded as approaching 80%. Among business and trust owners on incomes of over $200,000, the Coalition outpolled Labor 60% to 10%, with the Greens on next to nothing. However, for those in the high income bracket who didn’t own business or trusts, the Coalition was in the low forties, Labor the high thirties, and the Greens the low teens. While Ratcliff in The Guardian seeks to rebut the notion that “battlers” decided the election for the Coalition, the big picture impression for low-income earners is that Labor were less than overwhelmingly dominant.
• As reported in the Financial Review on Friday, post-election polling for JWS Research found Coalition voters tended to rate tax and economic management as the most important campaign issue, against climate change, health and education for Labor voters. Perhaps more interestingly, it found Coalition voters more than twice as likely to nominate “free-to-air” television as “ABC, SBS television” as their favoured election news source, whereas Labor voters plumped for both fairly evenly. Coalition voters were also significantly more likely to identify “major newspapers (print/online)”.
• Two impending resignations from Liberal Senators create openings for losing election candidates. The Financial Review reports Mitch Fifield’s Victorian vacancy looks set to be of interest not only to Sarah Henderson, outgoing Corangamite MP and presumed front-runner, but also to Indi candidate Steve Martin, Macnamara candidate Kate Ashmor and former state MP Inga Peulich.
• In New South Wales, Arthur Sinodinos’s Senate seat will fall vacant later this year, when he takes up the position of ambassador to the United States. The most widely invoked interested party to succeed him has been Jim Molan, who is publicly holding out hope that below-the-line votes will elect him to the third Coalition seat off fourth position on the ballot paper, although this is assuredly not going to happen. As canvassed in the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review, other possible starters include Warren Mundine, freshly unsuccessful in his lower house bid for Gilmore; James Brown, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW, state RSL president and the husband of Daisy Turnbull Brown, daughter of the former Prime Minister; Michael Hughes, state party treasurer and the brother of Lucy Turnbull; Kent Johns, the state party vice-president who appeared set to depose Craig Kelly for preselection in Hughes, but was prevailed on not to proceed; Richard Sheilds, chief lobbyist at the Insurance Council of Australia; Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra councillor and unsuccessful preselection contender in Wentworth; and Michael Feneley, heart surgeon and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Kingsford Smith.
• Federal Labor may have evaded a party membership ballot through Anthony Albanese’s sole nomination, but a ballot is pending for the party’s new state leader in New South Wales, which will pit Kogarah MP Chris Minns against Strathfield MP Jodi McKay. The members’ ballot will be conducted over the next month, the parliamentary party will hold its vote on June 29, and the result will be announced the following day. Members’ ballots in leadership contests are now provided for federally and in most states (as best as I can tell, South Australia is an exception), but this is only the second time one has actually been conducted after the Shorten-Albanese bout that followed the 2013 election. As the Albanese experience demonstrates, the ballots can be circumvented if a candidate emerges unopposed, and the New South Wales branch, for one, has an exception if the vacancy arises six months before an election. Such was the case when Michael Daley succeeded Luke Foley in November, when he won a party room vote ahead of Chris Minns by 33 votes to 12.
“I’ve been stating my views. Very few respond to them.”
I wonder why…
“The green-ants are chewing away all the time. Munching on social democracy. They hope to topple the building. They may well succeed. I’ve read a lot of history and done my share of politics.”
This is just meaningless…
It’s just name-calling…
If you think the Greens are responsible for the ALP not winning, then at least show some sort of analysis… Do some survey work and present your conclusions and data.
Briefly
I am convinced that a combination of LNP (and Palmer) lies and the Green convoy ended any hope for Labor in Qld. I agree that the Greens attack Labor more than they do the Libs/LNP. QED.
KayJay says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 6:16 pm
…”Please, oh please, oh moon of my delight, may we wait until warmer weather?”…
Take it when you can get it would be my suggestion.
ar – Most mature democracies do not have compulsory voting, optional voting is not unique to the USA Most of them do not have politics that looks like the USA.
The assumption is that it helps Labor and fifty years ago that was probably true but I am sceptical that it helps them these days.
What it does do is drag a lot of disinterested people who do not follow politics to the polls, the kind of people who are much more likely to be swayed by slick advertising scare campaigns, facebook misinformation etc etc.
Goll.
It’s no wonder that you appreciate Briefly’s efforts.
PuffyTMD @ #289 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 5:49 pm
♫Regrets, I’ve ♪ had a few
But then ♫♪again, too ♫few to♫ mention
I did ♪what I ♫had to ♫do
And saw it through ♫without ♪exemption
Nearly time for my R & R and beddy byes. 🧸
KayJay @ #300 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 5:46 pm
fire bans
Dancing around a collection of red LED lights lacks a certain primeval feel.
If the Coalition and One Nation get their senate majority next time I wouldn’t be surprised to see voluntary voting passed
Lucky Creed @ #304 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 5:54 pm
Bugger off. Non-compulsory voting is the wet dream of the Right.
ITep
I am sure it is hidden deep in their agenda. I hope Australia fends of these democracy thieves but my faith in Australian voters is at an all time low.
Outstanding! Saves Labor from having to stand up to unions trying to derail the state government (I cannot fathom any other reason why Labor would have rammed this through like they did), I guess. Now let’s just hope Labor accepts their loss and doesn’t try to relegislate the same bullshit.
“I am convinced that a combination of LNP (and Palmer) lies and the Green convoy ended any hope for Labor in Qld. I agree that the Greens attack Labor more than they do the Libs/LNP. QED.”
Based on what data?
Briefly
Many posting here are near to broken hearted – but we find a way to be of good cheer and continue to believe and insist that in good time and with good will a better electoral result will obtain.
I have no idea what the means to the better result are – but I remain confident and cheerful – to be otherwise invites depression.
Most of us have lost loved ones, friends and acquaintances. We carry on and do the best we can and so will you.
Good health and good cheer mon ami.
Fire services reform back on the agenda. Setka back at work.
The federal election must be over.
Weak as piss Andrews.
Mature democracy? Are you kidding? We have only been at it for less than 120 years. It takes more than 120 shots at goal to get consistently accurate.
We see democracy around the world being undone by the rabid forces which have over taken the Right and people have the hide to start spouting lunacies which can only help them in their cause! We need to export compulsory voting, not dismantly one of the few that successfully operate in the modern world.
Find another hobby horse to ride. Preferably one that doesn’t have an arske at each end.
I think Labor didn’t win, because they played ‘nice’ and had pretty terrible advertising.
Where’s your data astrobleme 😉
Astrobleme @ #260 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 4:39 pm
Where have you been for the last 6 months?!
Lizzie @6:19
I am convinced that a combination of LNP (and Palmer) lies and the Green convoy ended any hope for Labor in Qld. I agree that the Greens attack Labor more than they do the Libs/LNP. QED.
—————
Doubtless we’re all inclined to be “convinced” of things that confirm our own biases and preconceptions. However in the absence of any definitive supporting evidence indicating that this is the most viable of a number of possible interpretations, they’re mere expressions of personal opinion. Of course we’re all welcome to hold and express our personal opinions as we like but it would be naive to think that anyone else would give them any particular weight.
PTMD
I liked your post @4.18pm.
The party is not shattered.
It is just crap that REX writes when he says it was a catastrophic defeat.
The worst that can be said is that the result was a shock because it went contrary to wide expectations. Most here, most of the Government, most of the Opposition, most of the voters with even a slight interest in politics, gave some credence to the polls and expected Labor to win.
I would be very surprised if anyone in the government is genuinely saying “well we won that election and it was such a great result that we are likely to easily get a couple of terms out of it.” It’s not even guaranteed yet that they will even have a majority.
This is why Your Rights At Work need to come back:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/uncle-toy-popup-retailer-faces-penalties-over-underpaying-staff/news-story/cbd568700435daca9c1538ce6754fb44
My opinion is Australians have become weak, gutless, greedy, selfish, self-centred mean in-groupish wangkers, ever since the first episode of “Vote Me of out of the House, Island, Block, Kitchen, Caravan, Toilet, Kindergaten Sandpit’ aired in this counrty.
Astrobleme @ #316 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 6:35 pm
Just about sums it up.
Labor’s played that way since Keating, and they have learnt nothing from their opponents, who hate being in opposition more than anything else.
Labor on the other hand…
Order No.227
@AnthonyCole68
37m37 minutes ago
Nothing to worry about here folks
:large
#auspol
#burnforyou
@PuffyTMD
They become pussies.
Timid, Weak, Pathetic, Greedy, Arsewipes, Loosers, Tossers, and I haven’t even finished yet, but william probably ban me.
lizzie @ #290 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 5:52 pm
More of this. Shames the coals and syncophantic scribblers.
KayJay @ #224 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 3:59 pm
Crooks with a surface sheen who smile nice.
“Where have you been for the last 6 months?!”
I have been away and somewhat busy… 🙂
That being said Boerwar was making the blog unreadable before that
Psyclaw
Wise words.
When I am out of shock and anger, I will get revengeful. I want to take their ill-gotten toy off them.
I hope the ALP wide feels the same.
There’s varmits in our house who need dragging into the light.
Who amongst the vulnerable have the Government Department reshuffles missed ?
Industrial Relations to the Attorney General – unions and working poor can kma says Scomo;
Refugees, migrant education and humanitarian migrants to Dutton-Home Affairs.. well they’re really f;..d now. Everything he does passes through a colour chart selection process;
The homeless and DV victims needing housing – sorry go talk to Matthias Cormann about ‘efficiency dividends’ he plans to impose on Labor State Government’s amongst other non -aspirationals.
None of this was forecast by Scomo ahead of the election, not a whisper. I am disgusted.
It’s Time @ #324 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 6:49 pm
Exactly what you expect when the government is run by a slick advertising guy and a former journalist.
“Where’s your data astrobleme ”
GOT NONE!
But yeah, lots of things coulda been done better.
That being said, I did think the Adani convoy was stupid. I don’t know what they were trying to do with that.
It struck me today how parlous media diversity is in Australia – where do Labor voices find expression?
The far right is well catered for (Sky) The right is well catered for (Murdoch Stokes)
Papers that could be expected to be Labor friendly are often sneering and patronising (Guardian, Crikey).
I like The Saturday Paper and The New Daily is ok.
I’d love the equivalent of an MSNBC that has bright people discussing events with influential politicians.
I’ve left the ABC off the list because they have become trivial and irrelevant in their refusal to tackle what’s important. If Murdoch isn’t reporting it, it ain’t happening seems to be their guiding principle. ‘The Bad Show’ as QandA is now known on Twitter even sunk so low as to have a Liberal Party President Michael Tiyce ask a dorothy dixer to Tim Wilson – no sign the ABC felt embarrassed by this.
All in all not a lot of nourishment for a Labor supporter.
EB @ #330 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 6:21 pm
But not surprised.
Looks like Gladys has pushed her driverless (read unionless) metro into service a bit too early.
Let’s just come up with one word, to curtail long sentences. How about ‘voters’?
@qwadja
“If you have a go, you’ll get a go”
Flooded 4x in 23mths by EAAs KiaOra levees,
4yrs drought declared,
forced to sell up by the ATO..
Today for the first time, we had to apply for Newstart.
@ScottMorrisonMP
Zoidlord
My sympathy bucket is on ration. First up, who did they vote for?
Zoidlord @ #337 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 6:28 pm
@SenatorSiewert
We will go back to Parliament in a couple of weeks to rush through tax cuts for high income earners while those living below the poverty line are being harassed by their own Government to pay back debts they don’t even owe.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/29/centrelink-still-issuing-incorrect-robodebts-to-meet-targets-staff-claim
PuffyTMD @ #336 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 6:58 pm
—
Yes your right of course; Porter, Dutton, Cormann, Cash and Taylor all get to mess with the lives of the vulnerable and impose their right wing disdain for the vulnerable on their departments with turbo charge because they are convinced they have a “mandate” to go hard to the right. Damn it.
max @ #317 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 6:39 pm
Yet you feel qualified to say that they are simply feelpinions. Hmm.
“That being said, I did think the Adani convoy was stupid. I don’t know what they were trying to do with that.”
They were trying to put pressure on the incoming ALP government to stop Adani.
Shame it helped push those worried about their jobs to the right and not pick up enough votes on the environmental side.
Well, no-one punished them for doing it the first time.
EB @ #340 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 6:32 pm
Bob Brown (I’ve spoken to on many occasions over many years) and the Greens badly misjudged Qlders in general and those in the surrounding electorates (outside of Brisbane).
The convoy contributed to the demise of the ALP vote and the increased vote of PHON.
I suspect that Bob Brown would agree in hindsight.
The Labor Party and Bill Shorten badly misjudged Qlders.
The betting agencies in paying out early on a Labor win badly misjudged Qlders.
We are now stuck with a mob of climate deniers, fraudsters and carpetbaggers masquerading as a modern government going forward.
I believe many voters are showing signs of buyer remorse very early into the term of a new government.
Palmer, Rinehart and Adani are having one last attempt to garner another fortune at the expense of all Qlders, Australia and the Earth.
The Greens and Labor badly stuffed up at the just finished election. Look at the news!
In this period of automation only the deluded would expect a boom in jobs coming from more coal mines.
Qld will be at risk of degradation of and waste of water from the GAB.
Establishing coal mines and building coal fired power stations is hardly looking to the future.
Attacking Briefly for stating the obvious!
Zoidlord @ #337 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 7:01 pm
But Rachel Siewart, hmm, didn’t hear her voice before the election trying to warn the electorate of this. However, now she’s back in the Senate she feels she can start coming out with this sort of stuff again. The next election starts today, doesn’t it, Rachel?
The Aldani Convoy was as ludicrous as the Nutter Trucker Convoy. It did two thing, both of them. Made a few extremists feel good, and set them, and any vaguely linked to them, up for ridicule.
The result was predictable.
Now all of Australia can share in this style of Centrelink debacle courtesy of Morrison’s announcement that “Service Australia” for all transactions with government will be run by Dept Human Services.
The convoy wasn’t about any result other than getting more Greens votes. Like many of their stunts that purportedly have altruistic purposes (such as the Hanson-Young defamation suit) the real goals are much more selfish.
“Looking at the new list of marginals….
Am I right to say that the ALP will need a 2PP of abt 53-47 to form majority government in 2022? With the usual assumption on uniform swings.”
AEC figures indicate that ALP 2PP is currently 48.24, and that Leichardt (54.12 LNP 2PP) is the tipping point division for an ALP majority. Adding the 4.12% required swing to the 48.24 2PP gives you 52.36 ALP 2PP required for a majority with uniform swing.
If the ALP can get close to 50-50 in Queensland though, they could potentially pick up eight seats in that state alone. Obviously that would require a very big improvement on this year’s performance, though.
“The convoy wasn’t about any result other than getting more Greens votes. ”
Well yes. That’s how they get to implement their policies, by getting votes. So no real problem there.
My problem with it is that I think it helped cost the ALP power, and the Greens strategy post election seemed to be based on pressuring an ALP government by holding the BOP.