I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday giving my immediate post-result impressions, which offered observations such as the following:
Unexpected as all this was, the underlying dynamic is not new, and should be especially familiar to those whose memories extend to Mark Latham’s defeat at the hands of John Howard in 2004. Then as now, the northern Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon flipped from Labor to Liberal, with forestry policy providing the catalyst on that occasion, and Labor performed poorly in the outer suburbs, reflected in yesterday’s defeat in Lindsay and its failure to win crucial seats on the fringes of the four largest cities. There were also swings to Labor against the trend in wealthy city seats, attributed in 2004 to the non-economic issues of the Iraq war and asylum seekers, and touted at the time as the “doctors’ wives” effect.
So far as this blog is concerned though, other engagements have prevented me giving the post-election aftermath the full attention it deserves. I will endeavour to rectify that later today, so stay tuned. In the meantime, here is a thread for discussion of the situation. Note also the post below this one, dedicated to updates and discussion on progress in the late count.
“That you have to go out and beat some sense into ordinary voters.”
This is the actual problem. The arrogance that the public have to agree and accept the ideology/beliefs of the party.
How about listening what ordinary voters want. If you want them to want what you want, then you got to present a clear uncomplicated case and REASONABLE acceptable solution.
Labor’s solution on Climate Change was irrational.
And they still don’t get it. And they will still push with this Sacrificing of Australian public for NO gain to anything. It is dishonest snake oil selling to Australians. And Australians Know it.
Australians know they are very small compared to the world, and that anything that they do will have Minuscule impact on anything. However Labor is saying – we must do this so you can all feel good about yourself. Regardless of the economic impact on your life and family.
How about Labor peg their level action to a basket of similar economies around the world are doing, or even better still their major trading partners, and major trading competitors? Instead of self immolating Australia for the ‘greater good’ whilst your competitors and partners are laughing at you, whilst doing just 1% of your effort.
How wonderful to see Team Zali election night coverage. Those former Liberal members who tried to agitate for change from within the party yet were rebuffed by Abbott getting the last laugh. #karma
Sceptic says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 9:11 pm
Billie
The Labor heartland is always unionised workforces Today those workforces are more likely to be nurses, teachers, aged care workers, public servants.
Labor needs to cut the CFMEU adrift … boofy blokes only have self interest at heart.
Labor needs to attract GetUp style support to replace the CFMEU, both for improved intelligence & direct financial support , freely given not forced
GetUp provided exactly no support whatsoever to WA Labor…for which I’m grateful. They are a counter-productive influence. Anyone that thinks they have a contribution to make can do so far more effectively by joining Labor.
I’m sympathetic to the CFMEU. They represented the rights and interests of working people in Queensland. I campaigned with the QLD CFMEU in 2015 in Canning in order to defeat Andrew Hastie and, inter alia, to depose Tony Abbott. Labor can learn from them. The suggestion that the CFMEU lack intelligence is just an insult. They are not Green. They are a voice for social justice and the well-being of working people. Labor will make no progress until they dispose of Green voodoo and put the interests of working people at the centre of their policies and their language.
mundo @ #1197 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 9:21 pm
Oh, that’s right, silly Labor, they should have known which individual facebook accounts were reading which particular shared fake lies posts and turned up as soon as they had read them, gotten into their heads where they had lodged and given them the facts. I don’t know why Labor never thought of that. They must be idiots! 🙄
Henry @ #1200 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 7:23 pm
Apparently she can deep throat a dagwood dog.
“What about QI? With Sandi Toksvig as host”
Jesus Dan, there’ll be no room for that sort of socialist crap on the ABC. Get a grip.
Maybe we can find an hour a week for “Repairing Your Hilux”
James O’Brien
@mrjamesob
The line from 1984 that I struggled to remember on stage last night:
“Being in a minority, even in a minority of one, did not make you mad. There was truth and there was untruth, and if you clung to the truth even against the whole world, you were not mad.”
Henry @ #1200 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 9:23 pm
Yep. Just goes to show that these days all you have to do is fellate a Dagwood Dog, put it on Insta, let it go viral and away you go to Canberra. 😐
“silly Labor, they should have known which individual facebook accounts were reading which particular shared fake lies posts and turned up as soon as they had read them”
If you give Facebook enough money, they can probably tell you exactly that, which is kinda scary.
“I was talking to a nurse who said she thought Labor was bringing in too many taxes so she didn’t vote for them. Their inheritance tax was the final straw for her.”
I got this sort of reaction on election night when talking about (at that time) a looming Labor victory. The response from multiple people was along the lines of “great, more taxes”.
Labor were steamrolled with this stuff.
Snap! ‘fess. 😆
Blobbit @ #1209 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 9:27 pm
And then do feck all about it because to do anything about it…would lose them money in unshared posts. 😐
I had coffee with my neighbour this morning. She believed Labor was bringing in a death tax, a pensioner tax, and a tax on investments (she has none but members of her family do) and her rent would go up. She had not received any info on Labor’s policies – who was the Labor candidate? (I must admit he was pretty invisible, this being Riverina after all) – in short, believing every piece of Liberal crap going.
As it happens I had tried often to set her right but the force was obviously too strong. She can’t stand McCormack, says he’s done nothing for the electorate but she still voted for him. This is what Labor was up against.
‘Hopefully labor can go back to just sitting back and letting the incompetence, corruption and toxic personalities of the LNP do their work for them’
That’s the 2022 strategy right there.
Lars Von Trier
says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 9:06 pm
It was bound to happen:
The Downfall Bill Shorten parody:
https://www.captiongenerator.com/1396842/Tits-loses#.XOISjnGH-go.twitter
Enjoy!
___________
Not bad. ‘sending me out to explain shit I knew nothing about’ was probably the highlight.
Blobbit @ #1206 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 9:26 pm
Actually I’m waiting for the look on the Self-Funded Retirees’ faces when they find out that Mercedes are only going to be making EV models soon. 😆
Though, in their hypocritical way, as with solar panels, the early adopters will wear their EV Mercs as a badge of pride and everyone else will follow as a herd.
“Steady as she goes…”
Oh I’m a big fan of Sally McManus and the way the ACTU is run. They were directly responsible for putting pressure on my own union (who were doing nothing)and saved 4 jobs in my workplace…so I have a LOT of time for her and the ACTU……Thanks Sally and friends…..
Actually, even though it’s too late now, I think the ALP should spend a little extra on a campaign that sets the record straight on the Coalition tax lies.
What have they got to lose.
Blobbit @ #1206 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 7:26 pm
Only if it’s a petrol/diesel burner. None of them lefty/greeny electric cars on OUR ABC thank you very much.
Media Watch doing a great job on media bias and how much it matters in influencing voters.
Rudd saw Qld happening but his fears were ridiculed:
It was evident by this point that not everyone was convinced of a Labor victory.
One man who worried was former prime minister Kevin Rudd. He was concerned about how the ALP was travelling in Queensland. But he may have felt “unable” to express a strong view to Shorten’s inner circle according to confidantes, because they privately mocked him.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/05/19/labor-election-loss-2019/
Given that Dagwood dogs are deep fried dog shit she would be in her element.
billie says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 9:03 pm
Are tradies in Western Sydney Labor’s heartland now?
Tradies are all self employed.
The Labor heartland is always unionised workforces Today those workforces are more likely to be nurses, teachers, aged care workers, public servants.
Labor seems to have grasped the new reality with policies to help women rejoin the workforce when their children are young, escape domestic violence
billie, in WA we had many candidates who embodied the values you speak of, including in particular these two in my area. Kim Travers in Pearce is a Superintendent of Police with a long career in the prevention of suicide and responses to domestic violence; to supporting the mentally ill. She was an outstanding candidate. We had Malita Markey in Stirling, the CEO of the Asbestos Diseases Society, a candidate that is a lifelong personal champion of the welfare of working people and their families.
I campaigned along with many others for both of them. They gave everything they had. We did not fail because our candidates were wrong. We failed because our policies and our campaign were misguided, and because we left ourselves open to attack.
Labor have to set out to regain the confidence of working people Queensland in particular. This will be hard. It will probably take more than one election. We must start straight away.
I know this is unpalatable for some, or many from the ALP, but what about a formal preference deal with the Greens? OK- hear me out.
If the ALP do this, the Greens can do all the running on Climate Change, and the ALP can distance itself and concentrate on other things. A preference deal might therefore keep the leftier folks in line and the ALP can run a line like ‘ we don’t agree with them on everything, but on some things we do.’
I don’t know- something like that.
I know it won’t happen under Albanese. But I’ve always thought it was the only way to go. BTW I think Albanese will be a good interim leader, but as a leader for the next poll, I think he would be a disaster.
I’ve got a terrible story to tell about him, and I’m sure many others do too. I suspect there are a lot of skeletons rattling in his closet and the fact that Alan Jones likes him, gives me the heebie jeebies.
Well, I got grumpy. Tears from colleagues at work and genuine distress of Aboriginal friends who sense their voice is silenced forever reminded me it’s not so easy for others to give up. I won’t either. Back at it, but FFS Labor back up volunteers properly with organisation, staff and materials – and listen to the locals.
“Actually I’m waiting for the look on the Self-Funded Retirees’ faces when they find out that Mercedes are only going to be making EV models soon”
Maybe the government can set up a factory in FNQ converting Merc EVs into petrol driven cars.
Or coal driven. Add a boiler.
Concern troll alert.
Tom Hawkins,
This is certainly true of all Green’s party members I know (and being in inner Sydney I know quite a few). They actively campaign against Labor. Quite a few openly say that the Greens do better under a Coalition government.
I will be watching very closely what they do with their balance of power in the senate. There are a lot of us Labor people who preferences them in the senate, and who will not be amused if the Greens use their majority to wedge Labor.
WayOutWest says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 9:43 pm
Well, I got grumpy. Tears from colleagues at work and genuine distress of Aboriginal friends who sense their voice is silenced forever reminded me it’s not so easy for others to give up. I won’t either. Back at it, but FFS Labor back up volunteers properly with organisation, staff and materials – and listen to the locals.
I agree WOW.
Alan Jones is simply resplendent on Qanda tonight.
Daisi
says:
I’ve got a terrible story to tell about him, and I’m sure many others do too.
____________________
Albo knock you back for a selfie too?
Jones says Labor can’t win the next election. Those Qld marginals are no longer marginal is his logic.
Douglas and Milko
I have given them a suitable nickname for a very good reason.
I think maybe that term could be retired here too.
It does not matter whom ends up as the leader of the ALP leader, not what policy direction they take or what they say or advertise. The ALP will not form gov’t until Joe and Jane Public get sick of the Coalition gov’t or need rescuing from the mess they voted themselves into in 2019.
External factors stopped the ALP from winning and external factors will control when they next form gov’t.
Six years of hardwork was just flushed down the loo by a fickle public, so stop pretending anything Labor does from here on out is going to influence their choice at the next election.
What Labor has to decide is, who can do the most virulent and vicious attacking of the government over the next three years and, will the ALP side with The Greens and Indies to stifle any legislation put up by the Coalition (assuming The Greens don’t roll over for a belly-rub and smacko treat as they usually do.) or let it all through in a ‘you made your bed-mandate so you sleep in the stinking thing’ way.
Anything else is a complete waste of time and energy. J and J Public are not interested in policy platforms. Just promise them a basket of goodies paid for by ‘efficency dividends’ and get stuck in if the ALP wins.
D and M – agree that many Greens I know prefer the Coalition to be in Government. They see it as a better opportunity to ‘advance’. Remind me again what they’ve achieved for the environment in over thirty years ……..
OMG Pyne attacks Labor for adopting its campaign launch home deposit scheme without having done any research, conveniently ignoring the fact that his own mob did no research on it either!
Douglas and Milko @ #1229 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 9:15 pm
Is rain wet, does a dead fish in the sun for a day stink?
Two comments about Alan Jones’s comments on North Queensland
Sure they are now mostly safe LNP but it could be argued that seats like Dawson were already traditionally safe and second as they are not marginal then that frees the ALP up to go after marginal seats like Chisholm, Reid and Higgins.
“Just promise them a basket of goodies paid for by ‘efficency dividends’ and get stuck in if the ALP wins”
Fuck yeah. 100%
Labor have to make it very clear that they stand apart from the Lib-kin. For the most part, Labor have been content to ignore them; to try to finesse their differences. This is no longer adequate. Labor have to make it abundantly clear that the Lib-kin are not proxies for Labor; that they are imposters.
Chalmers is talked over. By TJones, by AJones, by Workman. Doesn’t get an opportunity to respond to the franking credits policy question.
All of the Greens members, supporters and voters I know are devastated that the LNP has won.
Maybe that’s why Greens voters preference the ALP so strongly…
I’m quite liking Jim Chambers performance
Mexicanbeemer
says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 10:06 pm
I’m quite liking Jim Chambers performance
_______________________
at least he’s not crying!
It has to be Albo. Chalmers is an underprepared boy – was very poorly advised to do Q&A. Should have been Bowen to turn up given he was the author of the policies. You can see him in tears in Rudd’s office.
Kevin Rudd caused a lot of damage to the Labor brand in WA by giving workers the impression that Federal Labor was opposed to their economic goals. We still feel the after effects of that. The same kind of damage has been done to Labor in QLD. It will take a long while for that sentiment to wash out. Labor will have to very consciously set out to rebuild its connections with those voters who have just rejected us. It will be difficult. Of course, at every juncture the Lib-Libs and their kin will try to disrupt Labor’s efforts. It’s imperative that we start by setting out to listen and to straighten the record as well.
Martin B says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 10:05 pm
All of the Greens members, supporters and voters I know are devastated that the LNP has won.
Maybe that’s why Greens voters preference the ALP so strongly…
They have been duped by the G-machine, who at all times and in all places campaign for the defeat of Labor, and who will be congratulating themselves on the part they played in the return of the LNP to power.
Alan Jones presuming to speak on behalf of ALP members. Sorry Alan, you don’t represent me.