BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

New state-level data finds a narrowing in Labor’s advantage, but also suggests the Coalition’s recovery has been too little, too late.

Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.

Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.

The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.

BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.

However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.

As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.

The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:

Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,540 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur
    Still not seeing on twitter.
    Not being jumped on yet if 2GB is being that stupid…

    2GB have it their website mentioning retired prominent retired Kathy Sheriff & Peter Faris QC… a quick search shows the dirt on Maintain The Rage Conservative facebook page matched by the despicable Michael Smith.

    ( Ratbag )George Peter Faris, QC is a retired criminal lawyer, and former media commentator and radio broadcaster in Melbourne, Australia. He known for his extremist rightwing views.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Faris

  2. Been chatting to a mate on social media doing pre-poll duty in Fadden today. According to him, there’s a big swing to Labor in Fadden, Stuart Roberts is on the nose up there big time. And Forde is gone, the Libs are telling him.

  6. Just thinking on what Oquist said – am wondering at the polling that is to be released tomorrow – perhaps he’s seen Essential or something?

  8. What Labor , the greens should put to newsltd , 2GB , IPA and other pro libs/nats coalition media hacks is

    If you want Getup to be considered a political party , newsltd , 2GB , IPA and other pro libs/nats coalition media should declare them selves as the propaganda political party arm of the libs/nats

  9. “Next one – why is the Australian Newspaper sometimes referred to as the GG”
    Government Gazette. I think it is OO (Opposition Organ) when Libs are out of power.

  10. The idea that oldies should not have to touch their Capital is wrong when we have others surviving on $39 a day.

    It’s also very wrong to call it ‘their Capital’, instead of what it really is, which is their Superannuation. Which they are supposed to use to live on for the rest of their lives, not squirrel it away and keep it in a locked box to pass on to their children!

  13. 2GB is hysterical at the moment, Alan Jones is more off his trolley than usual, Ray Hadley and Chris Smith and Ben Foredam are similarly sticking to the anti Labor mantra. About the only person on 2GB you’d consider to be a little neutral when it comes to politics is John Stanley, who occasionally fills in for one of their big names when they’re on holidays.

  14. Evan @ #952 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:09 pm

    Been chatting to a mate on social media doing pre-poll duty in Fadden today. According to him, there’s a big swing to Labor in Fadden, Stuart Roberts is on the nose up there big time. And Forde is gone, the Libs are telling him.

    I hope so. Stuart Robert is in parliament to make the Prosperity Gospel a reality. His prosperity. No one else’s.

  15. KEVIN BONHAM ON THE DRUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  16. Yep, I agree Itep. Everyone has heard this story one way or another over the last 20 years or so.
    It being dragged out now is pure politics and everyone knows it, and will it with the scorn it deserves.
    Given the lateness and commencement of the blackout at midnight this story is going nowhere fast.

  18. ALP are losing this election having bill shorten as there leader because is is a drag on there vote and all i see is the coalition government winning this Saturday and Morrison will be PM for three years and shorten will have no opinion but to resign after losing another election

  22. antonbruckner11 says:

    Still tethered to seat in dept store. Waiting for wife to return and take me for a walk

    Head down to the harbour, there was a proposal for a Guggenheim but it got the bone.

  24. Roxanna says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 6:58 pm

    “What if we were not allowed to use Arabic numerals on our ballot papers? – well some Americans want to ban them!
    https://www.alternet.org/2019/05/embarrassing-poll-says-that-56-of-americans-dont-want-kids-taught-arabic-numerals-we-have-some-bad-news/

    Dumb & dumber does not even begin to explain this.”

    Several years ago when I worked on a polling booth, then as a scrutineer, people counting to votes were chucking out as informal any paper that had a French 7 (the one with the cross).

    I’m surprised there weren’t arguments about the 4s and whether they should open or closed at the top.

    The one that gets me here are the 1s, they usually write the lead in tail, but it is often so long that it looks like an upside down v. 🙂

  25. ‘Who will stop the boats on Sunday?’ Morrison presses Labor on home affairs minister

    Thankfully voters don’t seem too fussed about boats these days.

  29. “Given the lateness and commencement of the blackout at midnight this story is going nowhere fast.”

    That doesn’t affect social media or “news”, even the fake variety peddled by Newscrap. It only applies to advertising in the press and broadcast (TV & Radio).

  30. I watched a bit of Shorten on “The Project” – looked pretty relaxed! False confidence? We’ll find out on Saturday.
    Morrison has been invited to appear tomorrow night or Friday, he hasn’t given them an answer yet.

  32. Apparently Shorten on ProjectTV just said he is going to ask govt not to act on the Sri Lankan family Dutton wants to deport so after the election, if Labor wins, he will reopen the issue.

  35. Bluey Report: Wednesday’s Child

    Buey was otherwise occupied today so missed most of the vital campaigning action.

    Bluey notes that the Liberals and the Nationals are not holding back in New South Wales. Bluey reckons that Molan has about as much integrity as your average Puff Adder. Ditched by his team Molan went full bore creating a civil war between the Liberals and the Nationals. There are allegations of pinching volunteers. Still, he singlehandedly WON THE IRAQ WAR. Just ask him.

    Baird has excoriated this ratlike behaviour by Molan and his band of political pilferers. Alexander has been coaching voters to cheat on the Coalition agreement. (Bluey reckons Anderson therefore probably had his toes over the service line back in the day.) Not to be left behind, and presumably with an eye to finishing off the leadership of the Anonymous Man next Monday, Joyce opined that ‘completely and entirely chaotic’. That is HIS team Joyce is describing. While not serving it up to his own team Joyce is garbelling some critiques of Oakshott. Bluey urges Mr Joyce to drink water at all the watering holes along his part of the Wombat Trail.

    Bluey’s OH was called by a person called Morrison. Apparently Zed is a good chap. OH not impressed.

    Bluey notes that Burke is frustrated that a perfectly good and comprehensive suite of environmental initiatives are being ignore by the MSM. Bluey reckons that while the environmentalists’ votes are locked up in the Greens Party there is no real point in Labor sticking its political neck out for the environment.

    Pacific leaders got stuck into the Morrison Government for its criminal neglect of Global Warming. One leader wants Australians to vote Morrison out.

    Bluey reckons this election has been almost totally without humour. It is the saddest election Bluey can remember.

    No-one is happy except maybe Mr Palmer who is pissing himself laughing in Fiji. It just has to be funny that a guy who makes hundreds of millions in royalties from the Chinese might get a Senate Seat by spending $50 million of those royalties attacking the Chinese for preparing to invade Australia and generally making up trillion dollar lies.

    If there has been humour it has mostly been inadvertent. Shorten’s sally at the Space Invader was just about it. Morrison does not do humour – apart from some witless snide and lie-based sarcasms. Bluey was therefore very impressed with Speer’s report on Morrison’s initial unwillingness to admit that he believes gays go to hell. Of this, Speers wrote, ‘The Prime Minister failed to give a straight answer…’

    Bluey reckons that the reason why 3 million people have voted already is that they are putting themselves out of their misery.

    Bluey reckons that a guy called Fusco, Liberal candidate for McEwan, is a dual. Not that the good people of McEwan will force the High Court to sort him out. Bluey reckons that there will be a small swag of appeals against the eligibility of successful candidates by this time next week.

    Abbott, a chap with form when it comes to meaning what he says, says that Steggall does not really mean what she says.

    Bluey notes that Bludger Track, the betting markets and the various polls are all converging on Bluey’s prediction of a handy win of 77-78 seats for Shorten. Bluey reckons that, having watched the Coalition routinely bastardize power for party political purposes, the Shorten Government will not be holding back.

    Bluey notes that Morrison must be feeling the pinch. He did the old vibble vobble yibber yabber down Wang way. The Lying Klutz said he was in Wang last week. Another Lie. He was in Wang years ago. Bluey has been in Wang and reckons no-one ever forgets the last time they were in Wang.

    Bluey reckons that Shorten and Marles should have left Morrison to the MSM when it comes to consigning gays to Hell. Bluey reckons that this is a vote loser for Labor, if anything at all. Bluey reckons that Australians more or less like someone who has faith, as long as they don’t shove it in their faces. That is just about where Morrison has positioned himself.

    For this reason Bluey is not awarding Labor a point today but is awarding the Coalition a point today.

    Score for the day: Labor 0; Coalition 1.

    Cumulative score: Labor 29; Coalition 5.

  36. I’ve heard AEC officials say they’ve gotten into an argument about when a 4 isn’t a 4, because one scrutineer thought that either the closed or open variant (who cares which) meant it was a meaningless symbol. Surely the handwriting isn’t that hard to decipher.

    When I write in English, I just do a single-stroke 1, but I do still cross my 7s. Certainly hope that hasn’t meant any of my ballots were thrown out!!

  37. jenauthor:

    During caretaker period significant decisions should be made in consultation with the opposition, or delayed if possible until after the election. But I don’t expect this govt to abide by the conventions.

  38. Jen

    Good on Shorten. Finally!!!! Labor is not falling for scare campaigns.

    Good to see lessons from Victoria were learnt. I am not really surprised to be honest. Keating gave us forewarning with his Dutton comment

  41. DDI-Makin

    The old rape allegation story could have some legs

    (a) if fuckwits keep mentioning it and giving it air and

    (b) if fuckwits write about it on blogs in the full knowledge that it was put to bed by relevant authorities years ago and

    (c) if fuckwits in the real world who hear about it are inclined like the fuckwits in (a) and (b) above.

  42. I dip my foot into the swamp that is the Shorten allegations with great unease.

    All I will say is that at the time in 2014 the allegations were raised and punted by Victoria police a number of journos expressed surprise that Shorten outed himself as the politician involved and held a press conference to address the findings of the police.

    Their basic point was that up until that presser the identity of the “ senior Victorian politician “ involved had not been released and with hand on heart the journos were of the opinion no media outlet would have outed Shorten after the event.

    It was very astute of Shorten at the time to front up. No cover up. No opportunity now for grubs to run the exclusive about previously hidden investigation etc etc.

    It is what it is and it has been addressed by Shorten, rejected by police and is five years old instead of being a new exclusive on a five year old “cover up. “ Good luck if any media outlet takes it further.

    All I have to say.

    Cheers.

  43. Meanwhile on SkyFoxNews, Peta Credlin is interviewing Judith Sloan, who is reciting her SmearStralian drivel.

    And they wonder how Foxtel lost $417m last year

  46. The newsltd Shorten unholy war propaganda backfired on Newsltd as quickly , the attack on Shorten and his late Mother

    So far last week and this week

    Newsltd and Libs/nats are 0 , Labor 2

  47. Bluey seems to have 7 red arms and only 1 blue arm this election.

    Neither – but blue is a warning colour saying “don’t touch – I’m toxic.”

  49. Bluey reckons that Shorten and Marles should have left Morrison to the MSM when it comes to consigning gays to Hell.

    I agree with Bluey on this. Just as I thought Labor should’ve left the first home buyers thing to the media as well.

    Bluey is also right about the humourless election. My own view is that this election feels like the loooooongest election in history.

  50. Might be a late night Saturday or early Sunday morning.

    The Australian Electoral Commission has raised the possibility that a record number of early votes will delay counting and make it more difficult to declare a winner on election night.

    As the number of pre-poll votes cast this year surged past the 2016 record on Wednesday, commissioner Tom Rogers said “there may well be some delays” in announcing results on Saturday due to the additional complexity of counting such ballots.

    The consistent rise in the popularity of early voting has prompted politicians to question whether the three-week pre-poll period needs to be shortened, and the issue will almost certainly be canvassed as part of the customary post-election review.

    By Tuesday night Australians had cast slightly more than 3 million pre-poll votes, and that figure was expected to increase by another few hundred thousand on Wednesday – already exceeding the 2.98 million pre-poll votes lodged in 2016.

    “Because a lot of those votes will be declaration votes and placed in envelopes, it just becomes more complex [to count],” Mr Rogers told the ABC on Wednesday.

    Asked if that could delay results in crucial seats on Saturday, Mr Rogers said: “We’re really hoping that’s not the case but I’m cautioning everybody that it’s a difficult thing for the AEC to do. It’s a huge logistic activity. We’ll be doing our very best but there may well be some delays on the night.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/electoral-commission-warns-record-number-of-early-votes-could-delay-results-20190515-p51nqj.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true

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