Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

  1. Lynchpin says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:35 pm

    The Tories must be worried if they are pinning their election hopes on the investigative skills of Michael Smith.
    ———-
    That alone is reason enough for even News Corp to run a mile from it.

  2. If Newscorpse picked this rape thing up after what happened with Shorten’s mother story … they really DO want to finish themselves off in terms of credibility

  3. I suppose we will find out, jenauthor, in the next 3 days if they run with it. I wouldn’t put it past them to tell you the truth.

  4. Always wondered what Ron Barassi said at the Gabba at half time in his second game in charge when the Swans were down 0.4 to 19.10

  5. I wouldn’t put it past them to tell you the truth.

    Oh, I don’t know. News doesn’t often tell the truth 😉

    Almost be a first for them to tell anyone the truth

  6. south @ #1215 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:01 pm

    C@t,
    A lot of people are going to see those adds then see the bill.
    They will walk back to their car and think, why can’t sun fill my car up instead.

    Now there’s an idea. Solar panels on your roof, battery storage in the garage, and EV car there charging overnight as you sleep. Who needs a petrol station?

  7. jenauthor .. hope you’re right but I’ve been waiting for this to be introduced into the campaign. Anything Murdoch’s rags print would not surprise me.

  8. jenauthor @ #1240 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:39 pm

    If Newscorpse picked this rape thing up after what happened with Shorten’s mother story … they really DO want to finish themselves off in terms of credibility

    Well I just watched last night’s Media Watch on iView and that Anna Caldwell who wrote the hit piece on Bill and his Mum came across to me like a toffee-nosed private schoolgirl who thought she was all that and more. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see her write the next piece going for the knockout blow she didn’t get last week.

  9. Barney in Saigon @ #1215 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:49 pm

    davidwh says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:21 pm

    Apparently Jones also said he would retire if Labor wins. Abbott, Dutton and Jones the perfect trifecta.

    It could be he’s about to get forced out and he’s using this as a face saving device.

    That’s the first thing that occurred to me too. Or it’s just an excuse for a bit of attention. In either of those cases Jones is predicting…

  10. “The legal risks are just way too high for what’s a very thin story.”

    Rupert’s cashed up. He wouldn’t give a frack about dropping some chump change on a political last stitch that could swing him the election.

    I reckon this will run hard over the next few days. Faris is the perfect foil for this.

  11. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:48 pm

    “The legal risks are just way too high for what’s a very thin story.”

    Rupert’s cashed up. He wouldn’t give a frack about dropping some chump change on a political last stitch that could swing him the election.

    I reckon this will run hard over the next few days. Faris is the perfect foil for this.
    ———-
    But what happens if it doesn’t work? With something like this, it has to work or you’re f****d.

  12. Shellbell

    Always wondered what Ron Barassi said at the Gabba at half time in his second game in charge when the Swans were down 0.4 to 19.10

    Do better in the second half? They kicked 8 goals to 14.

    By the time he finished at the end of 1995 they had significantly improved – made the Grand Final the enxt year and have rarely been out of the finals since. I think he made a difference.

    ps – I watched that game on TV and the first half was agonising.

  13. Is there any evidence that news corp are pursuing this?

    I googled it and there is a story on a dodgy looking site about Faris “representing” the alleged victim from back in 2014

    Seems more like people trying to get it willing through social media land.

  14. Roger @ #1269 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:58 pm

    Is there any evidence that news corp are pursuing this?

    I googled it and there is a story on a dodgy looking site about Faris “representing” the alleged victim from back in 2014

    Seems more like people trying to get it willing through social media land.

    I’ve not seen anything from the news corp sites as of yet, and the Herald-Sun at least hasn’t got a single anti-Labor piece on the front page.

  15. Timewarp back to 5 years ago on news.com.au …

    “Herald Sun AUGUST 21, 2014 10:56PM
    BILL Shorten yesterday outed himself as the subject of a rape investigation, as police said the matter was closed and no charges would be laid.
    The Opposition Leader took the extraordinary step of confirming he was the senior Labor figure who had been under investigation since November over allegations he had raped a 16-year-old girl at a Young Labor function in the 1980s.
    Mr Shorten had always denied the claims and said he had decided to speak out after police said there was no reasonable chance of a conviction.
    “I fully co-operated to clear my name,’’ he said.
    “The allegation was untrue and abhorrent. There is absolutely no basis for the claim.’’

    Seems like a pretty thin smear story to be regurgitating in my opinion… Lib/Nats just don’t get it – just listen to the people and forget about the profit motive as the only reason for doing anything and this kind of crap won’t be necessary to win an election… Easily diffused by asking why it is only being raised again now? He has been opposition leader for 5-6 years! Not like he only just appeared on the political scene.

  16. This case is similar in circumstances to the Pell case where the victim was the only eye-witness.

    Bullshit. There was more than one witness in the Pell matter. Problem is that the proceedings dragged on so long that the other witness died.

    Fucking disingenuous amateur QC.

  17. I swear I’ve seen this story floating around for ages. I don’t think it’ll have much impact and it’ll probably back fire massively like the mother story did if a Murdoch rag runs it.

  18. As for Alan Jones and everyone else at 2GB, they’re so anti Labor, it’s getting farcical, and today Ben Fordam was whining that no Labor people will come on his show……….gee, I can’t think why lol

  19. Does News Corp really think the Coalition are that much of a chance to jag a win if they print that story? Labor are a much better organised unit now than in 2014 and I’m sure they’ve already war-gamed their response should it be published.

  20. Fair few rail commuters in Boothby, I’d say, and privatisation is not so popular these days. Not that changing the federal government would do much to affect state government policies in that area

  21. Looks like it should be an interesting week. I’ll be having an election party on Saturday. Some of you I have already invited. To those who have not received an invitation, have a nice night. I’m having an open bar, my nephew will be taking care of the drinks. 20-30 people depending if all show. I’ve got the Rumpus room ready to rock and roll with 2 large tv’s.

    The cool people will be coming and going outside, having a quiet smoke and a spliff.
    And as I’ve said before, if enough conservatives lose their seats I’m going old school and breaking out the bong. If only there were some ALP conservatives looking at losing their seats. Unfortunately it appears the ALP keeps their own nasties in safe seats or in the Senate.

  22. You know guys you’re only giving it air by posting about it.

    I don’t want to be an ass kisser but the number of minds that engage at PB who are likely to be swayed one way or another by stuff like that is approximately zero. Just saying.

  23. For my sins I’m watching Sky after dark what the papers say.

    Oz – “Shorten unleashes unholy war” (Morrison and gays going to hell, or not)

    DT – Shorten class war

    Mercury – “popular” Tas premier to campaign in Braddon & Bass

    SMH – Money going to private schools

  24. As C@tmomma said above, Labor would have wargamed for all sorts of dirty tricks this final week, I’m sure they’re expecting another attempted hit on Shorten from News Ltd.

  25. @nath….I worked with a guy from the UK…..here in Aus on a working holiday with his missus……..Jamaican ancestry……a very funny man……great to work with and as his boss he thought it best to tell me he hadn’t been straight for at least a decade…….lol.
    I didn’t know whether to believe him….lol…..but said to him what he did in his off hours was his business.

  26. Barney in Saigon @ #1248 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:32 pm

    Upnorth says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:23 pm

    @ Barney – Lots white people spook me too!! And what’s with pedestrian crossings in Australia.? Motorists actually stop and let you cross!!

    But if you walk out into traffic, they don’t swerve to avoid you! 🙂

    Indeed Oz motorists own the bit of road they are driving on and won’t share. Yet are amazing obedient to rules.

  27. Shorten should have stayed out of the going to hell rubbish. He doesn’t need to involve himself in that stuff.

    There was no way he could after Morrison stuffed up the question, odd someone as good at lying as him f*cked it up, but he did and as soon as he did they went to Shorten, who gave a pretty boring answer.

    Morrison is a fundamentalist happy clapper protestant, just not one that is likely to tell the truth about anything. He opposed SSM, which is much much worse than believing people in SS relationships are going to hell. He is about a fruit cake as you can get and he has a track record of trying to use the law to impose his evil fruit cake ideas on the whole of the country. Shorten should have gone much much harder.

  28. Further to my ‘what the papers say’ at 11.16, Hun front page is about the fake cancer woman.

    The Murdoch tabloids and Oz website are carrying big adverts for Palmer.

  29. The tories are desperate. There is no way in hell that they are not going to report that a ”senior lawyer” has requested the case be reopened and says that in light of the Pell conviction, the case should be heard. The media will not need to open themselves up to defamation – they can just report that the request has been made and have pundits concur that the case should be heard. This will make it hard for shorten to claim the police have dealt with it.

    scumo will claim it had nothing to fo with the LNP and say that the law should run its due course without comment from him.

    This will be a new low in australian politics, and it could easily swing the election result. Labor will need to hammer that this is a new low by a desparate government and hope the claimant is not credible in front of a camera. the LNP background of the solicitor and smith need to be highlighted.

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