A sense has taken hold in the news media in the past week that the wind has swung in Labor’s favour (and also in the betting markets). Beyond that though, seat-level intelligence on the parties’ reading of the situation has been rather thin on the ground. The exceptions that prove the rule:
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the Nationals’ tracking polling has it at 50-50 in Cowper, where sitting Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker is retiring and independent Rob Oakeshott looks competitive or better. However, the Nationals expect to hold out in Page, where their margin over Labor is 2.3%.
• The above report also related that the Liberals are not optimistic about Reid and Gilmore, suggesting by omission that they feel better about Robertson and Banks. However, a profile of Reid in The Australian yesterday by Greg Brown cited Liberal sources saying their polling had them 51-49 ahead.
• According to Aimos Aikman in The Australian, phone polling conducted by “estranged Country Liberal Party operative James Lantry” had Labor leading 53-47 in Solomon.
• No link available, but Brisbane’s Sunday Mail reported Labor was “increasingly confident” about Leichhardt, “where it is winning support over its environmental plans and long-term MP Warren Entsch is being targeted as past his use-by date”. The impression was reinforced by Bill Shorten’s visit to the electorate yesterday to launch a “renewable energy zone” for far north Queensland, despite the seat not having featured much in earlier commentary on potential Labor gains.
Also today: another instalment of Seat du jour, today looking at the Sydney seat of Banks.
Mavis Davis, I think I figured it out. I got confused yesterday by your comment at 4:51 pm
I had entered this into the Newspoll guess list. I think I know what you mean now. All cleared up now. 🙂
EB
Just keep in mind that all of those votes have been placed during a period in which Labor have a modest but decisive lead in the polls. There is no reason to assume that they will favour the coalition.
This morning Annabel Crabb, in Her ABC propaganda piece, concocts a pig-lipsticking number yet again, by characterising Morrison’s one-man band campaign as “transfixingly good”. She compares him with singer Phil Collins, a simile which will probably be meaningless to at least two generations of Aussies.
And like sands in the hour glass, so goes another ABC “celebrity” pundit auditioning for an even bigger secret salary with Murdoch or Rinehart.
Briefly,
I don’t think there are that many undecided voters. I think people made their minds up 18 months-2 years ago, and Turnbull getting axed just sealed the deal. Naturally there are ebbs and flows in a campaign, and of course the media wants a narrative of an epic duel to the political death.
But this ain’t that election. It’s done. Has been for ages. Doesnt’ mean you take it for granted, doesn’t mean you don’t work to make a 12 seat majority a 20 plus seat majority. But it’s over. Barring some horrific event in the next eight days, put down the glasses.
Even the costings thing – hardly an issue in this day and age when they’re costed by an independent budgetary office. Trying to besmirch costings isn’t as effective as it once was.
Done. Dusted.
Steve777,
Yeah, Mark David cartoon in Independent Australia via Twitter.
I don’t care what a person’s religious affiliation is so long as it doesn’t interfere with their work in public office.
I always have reservations when a candidate uses his/her religion as a prop for public office. Morrison clearly did this during Easter and that was the final straw with me.
Bernard Keane has gone full anti Labor sighting Labor should stop lying.
I wonder who’s is in bed with private health insurers?
Thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol.
♡♡♡♡♡♡♡♡
Should there be grand departures and farewells among the meritocracy (subsequent to 18th May) I hope to be able to assist with the following ☸☸☸☸
We have trained counsellors standing by to take your calls.
Ex Gummint Staff and genuine failed politicians (MP’s) working through their own issues are willing to share experiences in a clinical setting.
Crying rooms and wailing walls available to those clients desperate for drug free relief.
Guaranteed results – graduates certified.
Our counsellors are too well know to name but will include an ex Environment Minister, Home Affairs Minister, many RWFW ex MPs plus many more of equal ability.
Sorry cash only – no cheques.
☕ more ☕
P.S. Has there been a downturn in the amount of BS from The Australian and The Daily Telegraph ❓ Mayhap I need new glasses.
Good to hear from you, Briefly
You seemed a bit morose a week or so ago
Has the feeling passed?
Said with all good intentions
Prof. Higgins @ #153 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 9:52 am
—
Annabelle Crapp. She has always been a wet blanket in my mind – her worship of Abbott was both palpable and sickening. Never rated her as a journalist worth following.
Ven…. East Hills under full preferential would have voted alp
the gap was 2% in the libs favour… preferences closed the gap by 1.5%
but approx 12% was with kso, greens and kso etc….. if those votes did not exhaust
then it is an obvious alp win
Oatley was a bad result for labour effected by the Daly tape in part
you cannot add Oatley and East hill with roughly a 55% lib vote then say their goes Banks
the result will be much much closer
Good Morning
Anyone that missed it. The President of East Malvern Tennis Club said he was concerned about rising inequality on AM this morning.
Not exactly a hotbed of socialists.
No wonder the LNP are worried about Victorian seats.
Brilliant! 😆
Phil Collins (the singer) is a rabid Tory.
He’s also kind of a dick. Apparently, back in 1997, Collins threatened to leave the UK if Labour won the election. Blair did win the election- and Collins was inundated with offers to drive him to the airport.
EB, you’re spot on about Crabb. She was merely the SMH’s political court jester. She’s not a pimple on the bum of a competent journalist. Her television dining with the politicians shows were transfixingly abysmal lessons in the fine art of nauseating toadying.
I wouldnt be too surprised. The place is full of bogans, rednecks and a growing number of politically active pentecostals.
I consider myself a bogan redneck from Dobell. Bogans and rednecks from the Coast can and do vote ALP. But they will swing. And McBride is up against a strong Lib candidate.
I guess those who think Putin and Russia are being maligned, this too is fake news
Eric Garland
@ericgarland
·
29m
Wow, it’s like Russia likes to subvert national governments! #CenturyLongEvergreenTweet
Quote Tweet
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
@RFERL
· 7h
Two alleged #GRU agents and 12 others were found guilty and sentenced in #Montenegro today for a plot to overthrow the country’s government and stop its membership in #NATO. #Russia
Alastair Nicholson
@alasnich
ABC radio news led with Morrison pre-emptively getting stuck into Labor costings, which haven’t even been released yet!
Nobody from Labor given the chance to respond of course.
It’s understandable that people get stuck into the garbage that emanates from the Murdoch sewer, but the ABC propaganda machine is far more insidious, because they are still trading on a reputation for fairness; a reputation that Newscorp long since abandoned.
Kakadu,
Muchas gracias for the Phil Collins information. I knew he was a Tory, but not heard of those ratbaggery details. What a wuckfit!
The signs are bad for Labor.
Bad polls.
Bad betting odds.
Bad policies.
Bad debate results.
Bad shadow ministers.
Bad party morale.
Bad teamwork.
Bad advertisements.
Bad proportion of ladies.
Bad redistributions of seats.
Bad campaign.
Bad campaign launch.
Bad social policies.
Bad climate policy.
Bad tax changes.
Very very very bad leader.
There’s just no way Labor can win
Worlds fastest bullet train runs Japan:
https://s.nikkei.com/2VSRQ1f
@Psyclaw
lol are you @wayne?
C@t would have come across the Lib candidate for Dobell (Jilly Pilon). She contested the State seat for Gosford recently and I think is/was a Councillor. Does she have a chance against McBride?
Simon² Katich® @ #165 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 10:16 am
If Labor can lose a seat with a 4.8% margin, then all is well and truly lost.
There are always outliers. But yes, with a good incumbent the ALP should be fine.
Outside of an election, I only read the Guardian and listen to Faine. It has therefor come as some surprise that the ABC seems to have gone over to the dark-side.
My question to the good people of PB is: When did this happen; As recent as Ita? Or is it a post Kerry O’B thing?
Reference the Anabel Crabb comments.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-10/scott-morrison-federal-election-campaign-launch/11099310
I’m not sure that Ms. Crab is not saying something like ——
Probably worth another read. 😎
In relation to Dobell, the state seats inside the boundaries all swung to the ALP in the recent NSW state election.
Sportsbet has the Liberals on odds of 8.00 in Dobell.
Not sure the ALP is at all worried about Dobell, more interested in the neighbouring seat of Robertson.
What odds The Daily Telegraph has already printed “Giant Black Hole Found in Labor figures . Labor Credibility in Tatters” posters/articles ?
Psyclaw,
Love the sarcasm.
Kakuru says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:13 am
The man seemingly has no redeeming features.
Destroyed Genesis with his pale imitation of Peter Gabriel and then some banal movie appearances.
the only Labor held seat in NSW they’d be worried about would be Lindsay, I doubt very much they’re in danger in any of the other NSW seats they gained in 2016, like Eden Monaro, Patterson, Macarthur.
Poroti
No doubt. Today in Holt street they seem to be up in arms about preferential voting. Apparently Labor won 11 seats because Green voters gave preferences to Labor. Its an outrage!
Sounds like the start of todays drinking game.
Phil Collins was on tour in Australia earlier this year, I heard. I wasn’t inclined to buy tickets.
So, the pattern for this election looks like it’s going to be: A large win for the ALP in terms of seats, with a relatively smallish win in terms of national 2PP in the HoR.
So, the attention should be turned to the Senate now. Unless they are completely deluded, the Libs must be focusing on the Senate vote, in the hope to create a majority multi-party Conservative front against the Shorten ALP Government and do to Shorten what Shorten did to Abbott in 2014 when the Progressive majority in the Senate blocked the Neoliberal Budget from Hell.
With good and hard work we may prevent the Budget to Heaven from being blocked by the Neoliberal-Conservatives in the next Senate.
Dog’s B
With that certainty by Nostradamus, perhaps Nostra is waiting till the odds blows further.
I expect that plenty of smallish amounts are keeping the odds in favour of Labor short, and very little money going the way of the LNP.
I’d be waiting till the morning of ths 18th if l were punting.
The punters’ money at this stage the says Labor in a canter!
I checked back and it seems Pilon did not do well in the Gosford by-election.
That was several years ago tho… and she now has a TV celeb family member.
Psyclaw
Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 10:21 am
Comment #107
A duet if you please – guitar and ukulele accompaniment.
♫And it’s no, nay, ♪never
No, nay, ♫never no ♪ more
Will I ♫play the wild ♫rover
No, ♫never no ♫ more
With the unliked Mr. Shorten on the Bass Oboe.
And a good morning to you. 😇
Anyone who wants a laugh – this is from Possum Comitatus’ twitter feed
Jacqueline Klimas @jacqklimas
Bezos is talking about building enormous, rotating habitats in space that can hold upwards of a million people. Some would be cities, some would be natural parks, he said.
1:23 PM – 9 May 2019
..
Andrew Lawrence @ndrew_lawrence
Retweeted Jacqueline Klimas
An enormous rotating habitat in space capable of sustaining life?
Wish we had one of those now, I’m sure we’d take good care of it
2:52 PM – 9 May 2019
Simon² Katich®
The poms go in for spotting the first swallow of Spring. We can go for the first sighting of “Labor budget black hole” with bonus points for “giant black hole”.
beguiledagain @ 8:58 am
Thanks for that splendid piece of personal diplomatic history. Much better than the apocryphal story.
Kristina Keneally having a ball destroying Palmer and his relationship with the Liberal Party.
Crabb has ability but pisses it away every time she gets close to a politician whereupon she goes to pieces and gets starry eyed
poroti: There are high chances that both headlines and main text have been already written (with only some blanks left to add appropriate details).
Read this:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/may/10/news-corp-rick-morton-australian
beguiledagain @ 8:58 am
Thank you for telling us of your experience . Thanks Pedant for reminding me to !
@rwillingham
Some Voters in Kooyong saying they are receiving election material from @JoshFrydenberg nearly every night at the moment. The margin is 12.8%… @abcmelbourne #AusVotes19
Mr X
this is some info re the abc
https://www.theage.com.au/national/gaining-influence-its-as-easy-as-abc-20060616-ge2j4j.html
And toolman doesn’t help things much
“Crabb has ability but pisses it away every time she gets close to a politician whereupon she goes to pieces and gets starry eyed”…
Corrections:
a) “Crabb had abilities”
b) “close to a Liberal politician”
poroti says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 10:36 am
I’m sure Labor have put a small one in just so the Liberals can say something factual about it.
Problem is that this mob will probably miss it! 🙂