A sense has taken hold in the news media in the past week that the wind has swung in Labor’s favour (and also in the betting markets). Beyond that though, seat-level intelligence on the parties’ reading of the situation has been rather thin on the ground. The exceptions that prove the rule:
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the Nationals’ tracking polling has it at 50-50 in Cowper, where sitting Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker is retiring and independent Rob Oakeshott looks competitive or better. However, the Nationals expect to hold out in Page, where their margin over Labor is 2.3%.
• The above report also related that the Liberals are not optimistic about Reid and Gilmore, suggesting by omission that they feel better about Robertson and Banks. However, a profile of Reid in The Australian yesterday by Greg Brown cited Liberal sources saying their polling had them 51-49 ahead.
• According to Aimos Aikman in The Australian, phone polling conducted by “estranged Country Liberal Party operative James Lantry” had Labor leading 53-47 in Solomon.
• No link available, but Brisbane’s Sunday Mail reported Labor was “increasingly confident” about Leichhardt, “where it is winning support over its environmental plans and long-term MP Warren Entsch is being targeted as past his use-by date”. The impression was reinforced by Bill Shorten’s visit to the electorate yesterday to launch a “renewable energy zone” for far north Queensland, despite the seat not having featured much in earlier commentary on potential Labor gains.
Also today: another instalment of Seat du jour, today looking at the Sydney seat of Banks.
@Shane Wright
For those talking electricity prices today: the CBA this week said its estimate for wholesale prices over the next decade was $60-$80/mwh. Also noted Labor policy could push that lower… 1/2
Also:
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/coalition-solicited-foreign-donations-after-introducing-new-laws-banning-them-20190506-p51kne.html
Great story Pedant, loved it!
beguiledagain
Fantastic story. And the Coalition politicians at the time damned Whitlam for going to China – and were made to look very foolish soon after with Nixon’s visit!
I was just reflecting the last time I was at Melbourne Airport and looking at the many flights departing for multiple cities in China – how different was that world in 1972 when there were ZERO flights to China!
Red13…how are you seeing things today?
I think the betting markets as any guide are virtually useless after that $1 million bet.
Confessions
Great graphic – a bit like the One-Day cricket!
Predictions are for at least 30% pre-poll, which would be 4.5 million, which would mean a massive number today (and tomorrow – are they open this one Saturday?) and next week.
Oh dear….
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-09/facebook-video-islam-barbaric-primitive-shared-clp-jacinta-price/11095494?pfmredir=sm
Zoidlord
The most interesting part of that article is the end
The secret sauce in the Labor’s better budget projections isn’t that it isn’t adopting the Coalition’s tax cuts. It is that it’s tackling the handing out of billions of dollars in dividend imputation cheques to people who don’t pay tax in a way the Coalition wasn’t prepared to.
Not that it didn’t think about it. A file list seen by Fairfax Media shows treasury created a file entitled “Tax Policy – Dividend Imputation” in the lead up to then Treasurer Scott Morrision’s 2017 budget.
The tax reform discussion paper commissioned by his predecessor Joe Hockey found “revenue concerns with the refundability of imputation credits”.
I am not surprised they thought about it – and if Labor win it will be very interesting to see whether they firstly oppose in the Senate all these changes Labor is proposing, and secondly whether they have the guts (or stupidity!) to go to the subsequent election in 2022 promising to reintroduce them.
On the first, yes they will oppose them just to save face.
On the second, they will have ‘moved on’ and do their best to forget they ever supported these things. Possibly helped by a change in leader by then (or several changes!)
Douglas and Milko @ #868 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 4:59 am
Thanks for the link.
“For those talking electricity prices today: the CBA this week said its estimate for wholesale prices over the next decade was $60-$80/mwh. Also noted Labor policy could push that lower… 1/2”
***
If we want lower power costs, which we all do, then we need to begin transitioning to renewables. Solar is already a cheaper source of energy than coal. Even if you take the climate change argument out of it for a second, price alone is enough of a reason to transition. We have an abundance of renewable resources in Australia and it’s ridiculous that we aren’t taking advantage of that.
Victoria says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:51 am
This election feels weird. Very much like it felt at Vic state election six months ago. It was hard to get a vibe from the public. The msm was all wind and fury but it was difficult to get a sense of people wanting change or not.
And I was as surprised as anyone else when Labor were returned so emphatically.
Weird is the right word.
Labor are making no effort to placate Murdoch.
The betting market has gone ballistic.
Morrison has promised 25% cut in electricity bills (ROFL).
And yes it feels like the end of the Victorian campaign.
The end of the ARGUS saw the front page handed over to advertising, how long has the DT got to go?
Douglas and Milko @ #7 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 6:31 am
And thanks for your Brexit news! I try to follow German news on Brexit, your on the ground notes are much appreciated.
The British left IMO are reacting to austerity with misdirected anger. Also the Guardian had some articles yesterday on Brexit changes.
Frednk
My continuing feeling is that Labor will just get over the line.
I want them to win and to win comfortably.
“And for those of you who read this and decide the Greens are better, please make sure to preference the ALP above the Coalition, because the ALP are light years better than the Coalition on funding science.”
Yep. Giving the Greens your first preference and putting Labor above the Libs/Nats is the strongest possible way to vote against the Coalition and their agenda. Let’s get rid of this disgraceful excuse for a government.
One more week! Whatever happens, at least the 18th should finally mark the end of us being bombarded by Palmer’s ads every 5 minutes. I still can’t get my head around how much this guy is spending.
Re betting, I don’t gamble, but I think I recall a suggestion for those who go to the races is to take note of where the “colourful racing identities” and their agents are placing their money and do likewise.
If anyone’s placed a $1 million bet, they would have to have inside information.
Considering there are many undecided voters – seemingly, far more than usual – it’s likely that pre-poll votes will not exceed 2016. The turnout may be higher so far this year than in 2016, but that does not mean the final pre-poll vote will match the early trend. Undecided voters won’t be rushing to vote early. They will wait until they really must make a decision.
This election campaign has been characterised by astronomical Lib lying. This certainly disrupted and stalled what seemed to be an inexorable swing to Labor. But as the campaign has worn on, the Lib lies are receding into the background and maybe – just maybe – the swing to Labor will surge in the coming few days.
Labor’s commitments on tax, spending and the deficit/surplus are coming into focus just as undecided voters really have to crystallise their intentions. This has to be favourable for Labor.
In the meantime, the field campaigns continue all-day/every-day for Labor. We’re still reaching persuadable and undecided voters.
X at 8:59 am
“Love your work Nostradamus, always good to have a laugh. Do you know any others?”
That’s not the real Nostradamus!! The absence of quatrains gives it away. He’s trying to take advantage of our simple trust. Don’t believe him people!!!!
Ummmm….truth in advertising?
Nostradamus
Not a single seat poll has shown Labor are on track to obtain a seat off the Coalition.
Put your mortgage on the LNP.. you can get 7:1 or is 10 now?
“My continuing feeling is that Labor will just get over the line.
I want them to win and to win comfortably.”
I think we’re looking at anything from a hung parliament to a small Labor majority between 1-5ish. A Coalition win either in minority or majority seems quite unlikely but is still possible.
“Ummmm….truth in advertising?”
Truth? From a Murdoch rag? Surely you jest! 😛
Checking the NT News to see how they are covering the CLP candidate I found Tropical Cyclone Lili has formed east of Timor and is heading south towards the NT. It doesn’t look like it will amount to much, but this is pretty late for a Top End cyclone!
Only one near Australia during May in the last twelve years according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s very inclusive list.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/
They should’ve said “More babies will be eaten under Labor”.
LR:
I recorded my election prediction yesterday as 52.64% to Labor, whereas I meant 51.64% (52% rounded) – would you mind making an amendment?
ciao C@tmomma
Mi scusi,signora, ” capisce”.
Va bene!
That Laborlast ad is an anti-abortion ad. It was “Authorised by G. Duffy, Cherish Life Qld, 5/2 Benson Street, Toowong Qld, 4066”. Seems to be a Chritian Right group.
Of course they couldn’t give a stuff about babies once they’re born.
(Duplicate post deleted)
Firefox
I still can’t get my head around how much this guy is spending.
Amazing when he can’t pay his former workers their $7 million owed!
If it is true that the UAP workers are being paid by the Liberal Party this continues a proud tradition established in the 1960s and early 1970s where the Liberal Party paid for the DLP ads on TV. The DLP repaid the favour by preferencing the Liberal and Country Parties to help keep Labor out of office until 1972.
I think Labor hammering this Coalition-UAP stitch-up will demonstrate yet again Morrison’s poor judgement. And people wonder why he got sacked from both Tourism Australia and New Zealand!
ltep @ #123 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 9:25 am
—
LMAO
Steve777:
I figured it’d be an anti abortion group.
C@tmomma
3. You may have missed that Bill Shorten is a Catholic. He goes to Mass. He prays. I think that makes him a Christian too. Just the better sort who follows the teachings of Jesus and not the Prosperity ‘Gospel’ like Morrison. Which is bad, very, very bad, for this country as a whole if implemented as policy for the nation.
_________________________________
Actually you may have missed that Bill Shorten is now an Anglican. So he’s jumped the Protestant fence, acquired the Protestant work ethic, at least the jogging part. Who knows where he may finish up? A Pentecostal perhaps, he’s moving in that direction.
This 25% power price cut promise is desperate and I can see it backfiring. Obvious riposte is they’ve had six years and everything’s gone up, you still haven’t seen the $550 you were promised six years ago.”
One could be forgiven for thinking that ‘The West Australian’ was already part of Newscorp. It has the same Holden ad on its front page today as the DT.
“Amazing when he can’t pay his former workers their $7 million owed!”
Absolutely! It’s disgraceful really.
Meanwhile, the AEC tells us now that 1.6 million people have pre-polled. Double the total last time. I hope its a bloody landslide Sat week or we might be chewing our nails for a week afterwards. Damn.
Mavis Davis @ #124 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 9:28 am
No worries. 🙂
I’m a bit confused though about the different Mavis posters. I don’t mind recording as many as there are but sometimes I make a mistake and record a guess in the wrong place. I have a guess recorded for Mavis Davis from December, which was for 52.5/47.5. If this wasn’t you I will make a new entry rather than over-writing the old one.
😕
I think it was Sales who asked Morrison about the Palmer deal.
What did you promise them in return?
Nothing!
That may not be true! 🙂
Morrison sought Liberal preselection for the Division of Cook, an electorate in the southern suburbs of Sydney which includes Cronulla, Caringbah, and Miranda, for the 2007 election, following the retirement of Bruce Baird, who had served as the member since 1998. He lost the ballot 82 votes to 8 to Michael Towke, a telecommunications engineer and the candidate of the Liberals’ right faction.[17]
However, allegations surfaced that Towke had engaged in branch stacking and had embellished his resume.[18] The state executive of the Liberal Party disendorsed Towke and held a new pre-selection ballot, which Morrison won. The allegations against Towke were subsequently proved to be false, and The Daily Telegraph was forced to pay an undisclosed amount to settle a defamation suit filed by Towke.[17]
I see Scomo relied on the DT to do his dirty work along time ago as well
Nostradamus will make a killing on betfair
Sohar:
That is fantastic.
David
Only if you assume that the bet was placed without any knowledge from those in the know. I just don’t buy the argument that someone would risk $1,000,000 on a mere whim, (unless of course they are a Packer or some such type with billions at their fingertips). It’s possible of course, but very unlikely IMO.
Sohar @ #136 Friday, May 10th, 2019 – 9:40 am
—
And Scott didn’t pay for his beer either – bottom dweller.
The authoritarian strains of fundamentalist Protestantism seem to be taking over the term “Christian”, but Christianity is a very broad Church, including Catholics, Anglicans and other mainline Protestants, Orthodox and Eastern Christians plus numerous smaller groups.
”
Confessions says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:47 am
Just over 1.5M voters have early voted. How many voters are there on the electoral roll?
‘
Over 12 Million
Re Sohar @ 9:40. Found that cartoon in Independent Australia: https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/pm-clown-boy-and-his-travelling-circus-ten-reasons-why-the-show-must-not-go-on,12657
Briefly,
This entire campaign thus far is following the recent Victorian state election pattern.
I am not the only one to notice.
The dearth of polling is quite telling.
My comrades in Canberra picked up the shift earlier this week telling me the Liberals were hitting the panic button. They perceive that they were not cutting thru sufficiently enough to change the building sense for change.
I noted that Paul Bongiorno picked up the same story at the same time and published it.
There has been an inexorable slow shift to Labor and the NewsCorp overreach pushed it a few notches higher, much to the chagrin of the Liberals.
Funny how this campaign for the Liberals is playing out as the draft plan published a couple of months ago forecast.
I’m told that Morrison cannot understand why his campaign is not breaking through, in fact he is furious in being let down by his fellow Cabinet members. The Liberal Campaign Committee are equally aghast that the Morrison one man band will not listen to advice.
But still, as agreed, the media meet constantly with Morrison and plan their attacks. Again we were told this would happen earlier.
All in all, the Labor campaign is on track, and well focussed on the prize. We are in the box seat.
Let’s see how the Costings play out today under the media blitz.
Would love to see some state breakdowns though, they would tell the story.
Glad to see you have recovered your poise.
Keep up the good work, our family vote today, down with Vasta!!!
”
Barney in Saigon says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:47 am
poroti says:
Friday, May 10, 2019 at 8:44 am
12h
Well this seems significant… Vic State Director of the Palmer Party says Libs are ”funding their workers” #auspol
Naturally. Clive doesn’t pay workers .
We have a winner!
”
Can I say I told you so?
Meanwhile, this take down of Clive Palmer is a cracker. Worth a look
https://twitter.com/KieraGorden/status/1125609325169336321
I have so much faith in Nostradamus’ predictions, I beseech him to put his entire saving on Scomo at $7+.