First up, I should note that elections will be held for two seats in Tasmania’s state upper house today (UPDATE: Make that three), as part of the 15-seat chamber’s cycle of annual periodical elections. Read Kevin Bonham’s rolling posts on the subject, for the electorate of Montgomery here and Pembroke here (UPDATE: and Nelson here), and you’ll be a lot better informed about it than I am. Nonetheless, I will make a probably half-hearted effort to live blog the results from 6pm this evening. Second up, a good word for the latest episode of the Seat du Jour series, which today covers the famous outer Sydney seat of Lindsay.
Now to business. The misadventures of sundry candidates are making it a constant challenge for me to keep my federal election guide up to date. The tally of candidates who will remain on the ballot paper despite having “withdrawn” to head off embarrassment for their parties now sits at six – although there is nothing to stop any candidate on the ballot paper winning election and taking their seat. Indeed, the two Senate candidates could theoretically win on recounts if the lead candidates end up being disqualified under some or other provision of Section 44 (or, in the case of One Nation candidate Malcolm Roberts in Queensland, re-disqualified). In turn:
• The second candidate on Labor’s Northern Territory Senate ticket, Wayne Kurnorth, was found to have shared anti-Semitic videos on Facebook in 2015, one of which featured popular British conspiracy theorist David Icke’s thesis that the world is run by shape-shifting Jewish lizards. Shorten overreached in distancing himself from Kurnorth, asserting he had never met him, a claim belied by a photo of the two that shortly emerged.
• Another “zombie” Senate candidate is Steve Dickson, who is placed second on One Nation’s ticket in Queensland. Dickson held the state seat of Buderim for One Nation for most of 2017, having previously been a Liberal National Party member since 2012. His troubles arose earlier this week when footage emerged of him offering poetic musings on the art of love while in a strip club, specifically relating to the deficiencies in that field of “Asian chicks”. This revelation for some reason reduced Pauline Hanson to tears during one of her daily appearances on commercial network television on Wednesday.
• Labor’s candidate for Melbourne, Luke Creasey, withdrew yesterday, two days after a report appeared in The Australian regarding his social media activity in 2012, at which time he was a 22-year-old university student. The most publicisied of Creasey’s infractions was to click “like” on what those who know their way around social media would recognise as a “psycho girlfriend meme”, in this case involving a joke about false rape allegations. He at first offered only an apology for what he acknowledged was “stupid, immature” behaviour, but a divide reportedly opened within the party between Creasey’s own Left faction, which wanted him to tough it out, and some on the Right, who insisted he be dumped. Importantly, The Australian reports the latter included Noah Carroll and Sam Rae, respectively the party’s national and state secretaries.
• Isaacs candidate Jeremy Hearn was one of two Liberals to announce his withdrawal on Wednesday, after it emerged he had written a number of comments on Facebook to the effect that the Muslim community wished to overthrow the Australian government and institute sharia law.
• Also pulling the plug on Wednesday was the Liberal candidate for Wills, Peter Killin, who wrote on a Christian conservative forum in 2016 that its readers should have participated in the Liberal preselection in Goldstein, as their doing so would have ensured the defeat of a “homosexual MP”, Tim Wilson.
• Jessica Whelan withdrew as the Liberal candidate for Lyons yesterday over anti-Muslim posts on Facebook, although she says she will continue to campaign as an independent. Whelan’s problems began on Wednesday when The Mercury reported she had posted that Muslims should not be allowed to live in Australia, and that Donald Trump should deal with Muslim-sympathetic feminists by giving them clitoridectomies and selling them to Muslim countries. She initially responded that the screen shots were fabricated, and referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Scott Morrison’s position on Thursday was that this was good enough for him, although he appeared to go to some lengths to avoid getting too close to Whelan when the two appeared together at a pre-arranged promotional opportunity at an agricultural show. However, Whelan appeared to change her mind about both the views expressed and their having been fabricated when she announced her withdrawal yesterday, prompting Morrison to complain he had been lied to. The Liberals will now encourage supporters to vote for the Nationals candidate, Deanna Hutchinson.
Horse race latest:
• In his column in the News Corp tabloids today, David Speers relates that “hard heads” in the Liberal Party doubt they can win. As one such reportedly puts it: “If we had another three months, who knows”.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reported on Thursday that Labor sources said the party was “losing its grip” in Coalition-held marginals in regional Queensland where it led early in the campaign.
• Jennifer Hewett of the Financial Review reported on Monday that Liberals were “increasingly optimistic about internal polling” in Flinders, where Greg Hunt was “no longer at real risk”. Elsewhere in Victoria, Deakin was “considered solid”, although Corangamite was “much less certain”. The only seats in Victoria the Liberals were giving away were Dunkley and Chisholm.
• Andrew Clark of the Financial Review reports Liberal polling in Wentworth shows them “in a winning position, though the numbers are extremely close”, while in Warringah, Zali Steggall’s campaign is spruiking a poll that has her leading on the primary vote, with Tony Abbott said to be stuck on around 40%.
• For the second time in the campaign, the Liberals have provided the media – in this case Matthew Denholm of The Australian – with polling conducted by TeleReach that shows Bill Shorten with poor personal ratings in northern Tasmania. The poll gives Shorten a 29% approval and 63% disapproval rating in Braddon (compared with 55% and 37% for Scott Morrison), 37% approval and 56% disapproval in Bass, and 37% approval and 50% disapproval in Lyons. However, as was the case last time, no voting intention numbers appear to have been provided.
Self-promotion corner:
If you’re interested in my take on the state of play in my home state of Western Australia, you can hear a shorter version of it on Monday’s edition of the ABC’s AM program, or a much longer one on The Conversation’s Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast. Then there are my two paywalled articles for Crikey this week, lest anyone be worried that I haven’t been keeping myself busy lately.
From yesterday, an account of the importance of the Chinese community at the election:
Labor won enduring loyalty among many Chinese voters after the Hawke government allowed students to stay in Australia after the Tiananmen Square massacre, and John Howard did lasting damage with his suggestion that Asian immigration should be curtailed during his first stint as leader in 1988. When Howard himself suffered his historic defeat in Bennelong in 2007, the result was widely attributed to the transformative effect of Chinese immigration on the once white middle-class electorate. Increasingly though, the rise of China’s middle class is bringing affluent new arrivals with economic priorities to match, together with a measure of cultural resistance to the broader community’s progressive turn on sex and gender issues.
And from Monday, on Clive Palmer’s preference deal with the Coalition:
If Palmer can get ahead of the third candidate on the Coalition’s ticket, who will have what remains after the first 28.6% is spent electing its top two candidates, a quarter of their vote will then flow to Palmer, if Coalition voters’ rate of adherence to the how-to-vote card in 2016 offers any guide. That could give him a decisive edge over Malcolm Roberts of One Nation, his main competition for a third seat likely to be won by parties of the right. But so far as the Liberals are concerned, the significance of the deal is in showing up what a dim view they must be taking of their prospects, and their readiness to grasp at any straw that happens to come within reach.
Fess, the ON candidate in O’Connor is a proud Neo-Nazi. He should be well last on the Lib HTV. He is Anning-like.
newspoll 52/48 or maybe even 53/47
the shrill panic at The Australian speaks volumes.
Can i bet their final editorial before May 18 reluctantly says it is time to give labor a go – so they can later claim a lack of bias becuase they endorsed labor.
I’ll still go 55/45 for Newspoll.
Boer…I hope you’re having a good election 🙂
Based on BetFair, there’s about an 80% chance of an ALP victory and a slightly higher chance (83% ish) of a majority government.
So:
Probability(ALP Majority) + Probability(ALP Minority) = 80%; and
Probability(ALP Majority) + Probability(LNP Majority) = 83%
With nothing better to do on a Saturday night, the implied mean and standard deviation of the number of seats the ALP will win that fits those probabilities are (with a few assumptions about who’d form govt in a minority scenario):
Expected number of ALP gains = 13 with a standard deviation of 11.5.
The expected gains are about consensus, but implied variability required to keep the LNP in the game somewhat surprised me. That’s a lot of uncertainty around aggregate seat changes.
sustainable future @ #601 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 9:59 pm
Nah. Rupert ceased giving a stuff about the opinion of anyone other than billionaires decades ago. There’s no grace or reasonability left in Mordor, only fealty to the One Sphincter. Rupert’s still prepared to throw any money at his pet Evil, and Lachlan’s worse. They can sell another two 51/49 Newspolls and have ScuMo work the marks for a fortnight, then it’s The Destruction of JG II for 3 years.
What the hell, put me down for 51/49…no change…..although I’m leaning towards 50/50….it’s a punterville vibe….
Late Riser,
53-47 for both Newspoll and Essential, please.
Newspoll 53-47 thanks LR. 53 to the ALP of course. Space Invaders will cut through.
LR
Newspoll – ALP 53/Scum 47
Essential – unchanged
@LR
I still think 51/49 due to bias media.
“I mean to say. $4863? Where did the ‘3’ come from?”
Double the number you first thought of. Then pick a random digit to tack on the end.
Newspoll 51-49. Same goes for any other poll.
Looks as though the Firefox Addons Bug has been corrected.
Reloading addons
Bypass Paywall
Adblock Plus
Greasemonkey
52/48 for both
Newspoll 52-48 for me.
OT in terms of the election, but interesting news for anyone following Australian defense capability.
And more interesting than ScoMo’s latest fwarkups. 🙂
Was always a planned pathway for F35, but surprising that it has come on this early.
https://seapowermagazine.org/lockheed-develops-rack-to-make-f-35a-c-a-six-shooter/
There is some chatter around that the rack / 6 carriage capability may be compatible with the British Meteor as well? May be not 6 but possible 4 AMMRAM and 2 Meteor internally??
Other news i saw last week is that the AIM9X (F35 carries 2 on pylons under the wing) now has mods to reduce its radar cross section. Makes that external carriage less un-stealthy.
F35 with Mach1.6, 700nm radius, 8AAM and a gun no baby seal. 🙂
Who amended the Franking Credit legislation?
Who introduced the Capital Gains tax discount?
Who changed the 6 Pillars policy allowing banks to purchase Insurance Companies and their pooled superannuation businesses?
And there is a bit more
Behind all these changes was bribing for electoral support
These are Costello’s bribes – and that summary goes to the characteristics and integrity of those who accepted the bribe – and are so vocal in protection of those bribes now
The Liberal Party is all about bribing people to vote for them – NOT the interests of the Nation and NOT the future of the Nation
Newspoll 52/48
My non-political wife says space invader moment made ScoMo look like an “aggressive jerk”.
52 – 48 for me in all polls.
Newspoll 53 – 47
My pick for NewsPoll is also 52-48, possibly 53-47 if there is a movement.
The previous 51-49 was the result of a heroic rounding, but this will be out of reach of this weeks numbers, so 52-48 is a movement within the MoE.
Deb Kirby
@DuchessFrida
3h3 hours ago
Exclusive: Auditor-general found Morrison breaches.
Investigating why he was sacked from Tourism Australia
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/11/10/exclusive-auditor-general-found-morrison-breaches/15417684007120
What a Shocker:
Sky News Australia
Verified account @SkyNewsAust
.@drkerrynphelps says she opposes @AustralianLabor’s policies on negative gearing, franking credits and capital gains tax because they are creating economic ‘uncertainty.’ https://bit.ly/2GVCDmF #ausvotes
NewsPoll 51:49 for Labor.
They’ll massage and round off the numbers to ensure this.
It’s all about trying to keep the Lib campaign going.
A 52:48 or, worse, 53:47 will result in people calling the space invaders moment a campaign turning point, and Scott’s one-man-band will be reduced to a piccolo.
He’ll be the pied piper leading the LNP to their doom.
Phelps is a 6 month wonder. Sharma is already favorite to see her off.
G’night all.
In Sturt (post redistribution margin: 5.4% to the Liberals) the Libs have spent a huge amount of energy and, presumably, money. There are hundreds of LNP corflutes on major roads and they have evidently spent a lot of money on promoted Facebook posts for their candidate. On top of that there is a really big LNP billboard (with just the candidate’s face and some bland slogan) and another big electronic LNP ad near the top of Payneham Rd (a location where a lot of traffic would go through).
My point being… they are clearly not of the view that Sturt is a safe retain and are spending a hell of a lot of money to try to hold onto it.
They are also taking a bollocking on their social media ads too… they don’t seem to understand that if you push this stuff into everyone’s Facebook feed, you are going to get ‘feedback’, nor do they seem to have anyone moderating or removing comments.
Bill knows about space invaders..
https://mobile.twitter.com/billshortenmp/status/1124553625642999810/video/1
“Campaign’s ‘disturbing’ turn
PM slams “ugly hatred” directed at candidates, including dead dog left under a sign.”
Deceased Canine getting a run in the Australian.
The Indy-Libs are $-Tory. To be expected.
Confessions says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 9:47 pm
briefly:
The Libs are preferencing Labor above PHON in O’Connor. I don’t know about other WA electorates, but here in any case, the lessons of the state election have permeated.
*************
Same in Pearce.
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/government-sits-on-secret-modelling-of-climate-policy-costs-20190503-p51jtv.html
Well this is interesting…. Fisher says the LNP is hiding climate costings…
imacca says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 11:01 pm
The story seems to be morphing into something far less detailed.
“Deceased Canine getting a run in the Australian.”
Apologies. That didn’t come out right did it??
I think Newspoll will go back to 52/48
Forget “space invader”. If/when it’s discovered the PM outright lied about someone’s dog being shot and dumped under a sign, that’ll be the turning point.
Surely there’s no coming back from fake stories about dead dogs and Nazis.
Betfair has the Coalition back on $5.20. May the linger somewhere around there the entire rest of the campaign. 🙂
“The story seems to be morphing into something far less detailed.”
They are looking for wriggle room. Will be interested to se if any journo follows up on this and asks ScoMo to verify the who, what , where, and why it hasn’t been reported to the police.
imacca says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 11:01 pm
“Campaign’s ‘disturbing’ turn
PM slams “ugly hatred” directed at candidates, including dead dog left under a sign.”
Deceased Canine getting a run in the Australian.
They might “flog” that story for a while.
ON’s pitch as an anti-Islam outfit has attracted all kinds of phobics to their flag. They’ve been whispered up by the Lib-Libs all along.
Scotty meant to say one of his running dogs had been topped
Running dog is a pejorative term for an unprincipled person who helps or flatters those more powerful and often evil. It is a literal translation of the Chinese pejorative 走狗 (Chinese: zǒu gǒu), meaning a yes-man or lackey, and is derived from the tendency of dogs to follow after humans in hopes of receiving food scraps. Historian Yuan-tsung Chen notes that while “In the West, a dog is a man’s best friend; but in China, dogs are abject creatures. In Chinese, no idiomatic expression was more demeaning than the term ‘running dogs.
it was usually termed ‘capitalist running dog’.
@ Sprocket
In Mandarin idiots are often called “Gou Tou” or Dog Head.
The sad thing for many animals in China is that no animal cruelty laws exist. Animals are considered property and their use or mistreatment by the owner not an issue.
Thus the suffering of some unfortunate creature is allowed unless inflicted on it by a “non” owner.
Upnorth says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 11:11 pm
Would that be self flagellation?
Bloke who took a lump of coal into parliament having a go at others about stunts……unbelievable
Scott Morrison is a stunt.
I Like 54/46 for Newspoll and Essential. It is a TPP which allows room for the electorate to awaken and take inital stock of how dudded they have been by the Libs and NP.
Clem.
What a disaster. Looking like no champions league for spurs.
The dog ate my homework.
BB
every cent of her income comes from the NDIS
This sounds to be incorrect to me.
I am unaware that NDIS pays any person any income. In fact the disabled person is not funded by cash in hand, their notional support allocation being managed by the relevant NDIS agency dealing directly with the NDIA.
My brother who is a person with full right side hemiparesis person and is substantially funded by NDIS has no involvement with the cash, nor is any of his allocation “income”.