First up, I should note that elections will be held for two seats in Tasmania’s state upper house today (UPDATE: Make that three), as part of the 15-seat chamber’s cycle of annual periodical elections. Read Kevin Bonham’s rolling posts on the subject, for the electorate of Montgomery here and Pembroke here (UPDATE: and Nelson here), and you’ll be a lot better informed about it than I am. Nonetheless, I will make a probably half-hearted effort to live blog the results from 6pm this evening. Second up, a good word for the latest episode of the Seat du Jour series, which today covers the famous outer Sydney seat of Lindsay.
Now to business. The misadventures of sundry candidates are making it a constant challenge for me to keep my federal election guide up to date. The tally of candidates who will remain on the ballot paper despite having “withdrawn” to head off embarrassment for their parties now sits at six – although there is nothing to stop any candidate on the ballot paper winning election and taking their seat. Indeed, the two Senate candidates could theoretically win on recounts if the lead candidates end up being disqualified under some or other provision of Section 44 (or, in the case of One Nation candidate Malcolm Roberts in Queensland, re-disqualified). In turn:
• The second candidate on Labor’s Northern Territory Senate ticket, Wayne Kurnorth, was found to have shared anti-Semitic videos on Facebook in 2015, one of which featured popular British conspiracy theorist David Icke’s thesis that the world is run by shape-shifting Jewish lizards. Shorten overreached in distancing himself from Kurnorth, asserting he had never met him, a claim belied by a photo of the two that shortly emerged.
• Another “zombie” Senate candidate is Steve Dickson, who is placed second on One Nation’s ticket in Queensland. Dickson held the state seat of Buderim for One Nation for most of 2017, having previously been a Liberal National Party member since 2012. His troubles arose earlier this week when footage emerged of him offering poetic musings on the art of love while in a strip club, specifically relating to the deficiencies in that field of “Asian chicks”. This revelation for some reason reduced Pauline Hanson to tears during one of her daily appearances on commercial network television on Wednesday.
• Labor’s candidate for Melbourne, Luke Creasey, withdrew yesterday, two days after a report appeared in The Australian regarding his social media activity in 2012, at which time he was a 22-year-old university student. The most publicisied of Creasey’s infractions was to click “like” on what those who know their way around social media would recognise as a “psycho girlfriend meme”, in this case involving a joke about false rape allegations. He at first offered only an apology for what he acknowledged was “stupid, immature” behaviour, but a divide reportedly opened within the party between Creasey’s own Left faction, which wanted him to tough it out, and some on the Right, who insisted he be dumped. Importantly, The Australian reports the latter included Noah Carroll and Sam Rae, respectively the party’s national and state secretaries.
• Isaacs candidate Jeremy Hearn was one of two Liberals to announce his withdrawal on Wednesday, after it emerged he had written a number of comments on Facebook to the effect that the Muslim community wished to overthrow the Australian government and institute sharia law.
• Also pulling the plug on Wednesday was the Liberal candidate for Wills, Peter Killin, who wrote on a Christian conservative forum in 2016 that its readers should have participated in the Liberal preselection in Goldstein, as their doing so would have ensured the defeat of a “homosexual MP”, Tim Wilson.
• Jessica Whelan withdrew as the Liberal candidate for Lyons yesterday over anti-Muslim posts on Facebook, although she says she will continue to campaign as an independent. Whelan’s problems began on Wednesday when The Mercury reported she had posted that Muslims should not be allowed to live in Australia, and that Donald Trump should deal with Muslim-sympathetic feminists by giving them clitoridectomies and selling them to Muslim countries. She initially responded that the screen shots were fabricated, and referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Scott Morrison’s position on Thursday was that this was good enough for him, although he appeared to go to some lengths to avoid getting too close to Whelan when the two appeared together at a pre-arranged promotional opportunity at an agricultural show. However, Whelan appeared to change her mind about both the views expressed and their having been fabricated when she announced her withdrawal yesterday, prompting Morrison to complain he had been lied to. The Liberals will now encourage supporters to vote for the Nationals candidate, Deanna Hutchinson.
Horse race latest:
• In his column in the News Corp tabloids today, David Speers relates that “hard heads” in the Liberal Party doubt they can win. As one such reportedly puts it: “If we had another three months, who knows”.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reported on Thursday that Labor sources said the party was “losing its grip” in Coalition-held marginals in regional Queensland where it led early in the campaign.
• Jennifer Hewett of the Financial Review reported on Monday that Liberals were “increasingly optimistic about internal polling” in Flinders, where Greg Hunt was “no longer at real risk”. Elsewhere in Victoria, Deakin was “considered solid”, although Corangamite was “much less certain”. The only seats in Victoria the Liberals were giving away were Dunkley and Chisholm.
• Andrew Clark of the Financial Review reports Liberal polling in Wentworth shows them “in a winning position, though the numbers are extremely close”, while in Warringah, Zali Steggall’s campaign is spruiking a poll that has her leading on the primary vote, with Tony Abbott said to be stuck on around 40%.
• For the second time in the campaign, the Liberals have provided the media – in this case Matthew Denholm of The Australian – with polling conducted by TeleReach that shows Bill Shorten with poor personal ratings in northern Tasmania. The poll gives Shorten a 29% approval and 63% disapproval rating in Braddon (compared with 55% and 37% for Scott Morrison), 37% approval and 56% disapproval in Bass, and 37% approval and 50% disapproval in Lyons. However, as was the case last time, no voting intention numbers appear to have been provided.
Self-promotion corner:
If you’re interested in my take on the state of play in my home state of Western Australia, you can hear a shorter version of it on Monday’s edition of the ABC’s AM program, or a much longer one on The Conversation’s Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast. Then there are my two paywalled articles for Crikey this week, lest anyone be worried that I haven’t been keeping myself busy lately.
From yesterday, an account of the importance of the Chinese community at the election:
Labor won enduring loyalty among many Chinese voters after the Hawke government allowed students to stay in Australia after the Tiananmen Square massacre, and John Howard did lasting damage with his suggestion that Asian immigration should be curtailed during his first stint as leader in 1988. When Howard himself suffered his historic defeat in Bennelong in 2007, the result was widely attributed to the transformative effect of Chinese immigration on the once white middle-class electorate. Increasingly though, the rise of China’s middle class is bringing affluent new arrivals with economic priorities to match, together with a measure of cultural resistance to the broader community’s progressive turn on sex and gender issues.
And from Monday, on Clive Palmer’s preference deal with the Coalition:
If Palmer can get ahead of the third candidate on the Coalition’s ticket, who will have what remains after the first 28.6% is spent electing its top two candidates, a quarter of their vote will then flow to Palmer, if Coalition voters’ rate of adherence to the how-to-vote card in 2016 offers any guide. That could give him a decisive edge over Malcolm Roberts of One Nation, his main competition for a third seat likely to be won by parties of the right. But so far as the Liberals are concerned, the significance of the deal is in showing up what a dim view they must be taking of their prospects, and their readiness to grasp at any straw that happens to come within reach.
Trust me. There is no dead dog. They made it up.
Good sign of panic, though.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #547 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 8:59 pm
Probably Putin the Pug. 🙂
Fulvio Sammut @ #538 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 6:51 pm
Fulvio, I enjoy your contributions to this site, however you often make replies to specific posts and/or posters without any indication as to what or whom you’re responding. The above is a prime example. This could be a reply to just about every post ever made on this blog since its inception.
Help us out here by including a reference to what it is you’re replying to.
A-E
The Ortolan has form.
https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5223077
Hi Boer.
Has Bluey enjoyed his sabbatical ? Has he passed on his prognostications for the past week of the campaign yet?
It’s true !!! It is True.
The dog was shot. He was. Fair dinkum he was shot.
It was a drive by shooting by a Black African Tom Cat Gang. They are out of control and it is now not safe for canines to wander the streets of Corangamite after dark.
Stars are never sleeping
Dead ones and the living
We live closer to the earth
Never to the heavens
The stars are never far away
Stars are out tonight
They watch us from behind their shades
Brigitte, Jack and Kate and Brad
From behind their tinted window stretch
Gleaming like blackened sunshine
Stars are never sleeping
Dead ones and the living
Waiting for the first move
Satyrs and their child wives
Waiting for the last move
Soaking up our primitive world
Stars are never sleeping
Dead ones and the living
Their jealousy’s spilling down
The stars must stick together
We will never be rid of these stars
But I hope they live forever
And they know just what we do
That we toss and turn at night
They’re waiting to make their moves
For the stars are out tonight
Here they are upon the stairs
Sexless and unaroused
They are the stars, they’re dying for you
But I hope they live forever
They burn you with their radiant smiles
Trap you with their beautiful eyes
They’re broke and shamed or drunk or scared
But I hope they live forever
Their jealousy’s spilling down
The stars must stick together
We will never be rid of these stars
But I hope they live forever
And they know just what we do
That we toss and turn at night
They’re waiting to make their moves on us
But the stars are out tonight
The stars are out tonight
The stars are out tonight
David Bowie
Looking forward to Bluey’s take on the holiday period.
I just got word from a guy who heard from the bloke next door, that a bloke he a met recons Bill Shorten eats babies
A-E
I asked Bluey and he reckons he is enjoying deja schadenfreude already. Why waste the fun?
Bluey reckons week one and Morrison got into Shorten’s brain but that Shorten is a tough little bgger and week two Shorten got into Morrison’s brain, and enjoyed doing it.
Bluey reckons that all frontrunner Shorten had to do was to draw the debates and that Morrison had to win them decisively. Both knew it.
Bluey reckons Morrison is political dogmeat.
jeffemu @ #553 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 9:11 pm
It wasn’t me, or my gang of red tie wearing black cats either!
Re Dan Gulberry @9:00PM
[Fulvio] “Help us out here by including a reference to what it is you’re replying to.”
I’ve noticed that too. Don’t use comment numbers. Only a select few see them. They disappeared for me a couple of years ago. Show Commenter id and timestamp.
WarrenPeace says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 9:14 pm
Well I’ve got a mate in Thu Duc whose mum lives in Melbourne and her niece’s, piano tuner’s son’s girlfriend’s aunt saw it!
‘I always thought David Bowie should have gotten the Nobel Prize for Literature over Dylan. He created his own song-writing genre, the ‘Cut Up Method’, fcs! And his lyrics were pure poetry.’
Grow up.
‘cut-up’ was something Bowie borrowed for crisakes. The Dadaists in the 20’s did it. William Burroughs did it.
Get a grip.
Have you read real poetry?
Pop song lyrics and poetry are different.
Pop types borrow. They don’t invent.
This denial by Morrison about being a Space Invader is No. #1 story in the SMH right now.
I get the feeling that ScoMo’s not so much worried about the details of the actual incident, but more about it being perceived as a “turning piint”.
Morrison should read Lawson’s ‘Loaded Dog’.
As we all know, Morrison has no depth of reading.
He knows fuck all.
Walking talking Peter Principle. Been sacked from every job he ever had. Frydenberg same same. No environment policy. No energy policy. Nothing. So they promoted him! See his face when he was being sworn in? He could not believe his luck.
Morrison did not even know that Cook had not circumnavigated Australia.
Hillsong, same same, intellectually.
There is no biblical erudition with the Happy Clappers; there is no depth of theology there… just a whole lot of righteous money grubbing emoting and arm waving.
Surely, in this day and age…. someone would take a photo of the dead dog…. and send it to people. It is too hard to believe that someone shot a dog, left it on a sign in the street and there was no police, no neighbors…. basically everyone is carrying a camera these days and none of them took a photo?
Instead, someone told someone else who then told ScoMo and suddenly it is true?
Bushfire Bill says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 9:22 pm
I can see a cartoon in that.
“I’M NOT A SPACE INVADER, I TELL YOU, I’M NOT …”
As he stands over a cowering reporter.
I just wish journalists of Australia would question this bulldust more.
BB
After six years the dopes still think that Kill Bill will somehow do the trick. No idea.
Bushfire Bill @ #144 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 9:22 pm
ScuMo has two weeks of desperation left, then oblivion. Can’t be comfortable for the poor bugger.
Yep Morrison totally on the defensive over his invasion of personal space last night with Shorten.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/he-scurried-away-scott-morrison-shrugs-off-mark-latham-moment-claim-in-leaders-debate-20190504-p51k2x.html
Morrison seems really hurt that someone took the piss out of him.I wonder if a PM has ever been called a space invader before. Morrison will probably have it on his headstone.
Scummo and the Space Invaders….. they are coming.
Disco Balls and all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2lGJMrUUHw
steve davis @ #152 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 9:31 pm
GAME OVER PLAYER
ONESCUM.I’m going to buy a Kilo of salt for all the grains I need for Scumo’s bullshit.
If there IS another debate I think we can be sure that Scott will keep his distance this time.
Quick, someone get photoshoping, im on my phone 🙁
Morrison will probably have it on his headstone.
Or, ‘Here lies the poor man’s Donald Trump.’
“I get the feeling that ScoMo’s not so much worried about the details of the actual incident, but more about it being perceived as a “turning point”.”
The turning point was long before now – at least since he rolled turnbull.
if the dead dog story is not real, then it will haunt him for his remaining 13 days as PM. the fact the police are not investigating makes me think his goose is faarrked.
Morrison is no Chewbacca.
Confessions says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 7:19 pm
And today I received the HTV card and electioneering promo material from the sitting Liberal MP. The Libs are preferencing the Nationals and recommend numbering UAP 3. The Greens are placed last on their HTV card, with the Great Australia Party second last, and, interestingly PHON third last below Labor by 2 places.
Fess, the ON candidate in O’Connor is a self- described National Socialist, with a full tank of bigotry to run on. He propounds a politics based on racial “purity”/“mongrel”. He is vocally Islamophobic. ON and the Lib-Libs are regularising the exploitation of hate for political purposes.
Here is an adaptable candidate
I think Space cadet would suit him too.
There’s kind of space invaders, potatoes and dogs!
https://youtu.be/FCARADb9asE
Under Captain Smirk. 😉
Morrison denies space invader moment?
Bullshit he can’t be that stupid? It will give the story legs for days.
Space cadet
Noun
INFORMAL
a person regarded as being out of touch with reality.
Got an election thingie in the postbox.
Labor ‘could cost me and extra $3000 in rent per year.
My new car could cost me up to $4863 more.
The value of my home cold plummet by up to $65,000 on average.
As a retiree I could lost another $4500 PER YEAR.
I mean to say. $4863? Where did the ‘3’ come from?
What could he possibly be denying?
Boer
Interesting target audience for the flier – people who own a home and rent.
I apologize just read the papers;Morrison is that stupid? Space invader it is.
briefly:
The Libs are preferencing Labor above PHON in O’Connor. I don’t know about other WA electorates, but here in any case, the lessons of the state election have permeated.
zoomster @ #589 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 9:46 pm
I think it’s called, throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. 🙂
Any guesses for tomorrow’s Newspoll???
I’ll say 52-48 ALP
“Surely even a Liberal wouldn’t harm its own kind!”
Not a comment to be taken seriously Barn. 🙂
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 5:52 pm
I note with great sadness that none of the audience at the debate last night asked a question related to offshore asylum seeker torture and the policy going forward.
As a Lib-troll, your disappointment is entirely understandable.
z
Labor’s policies will definitely cost us more than $3000 an average year and my response to that is goodoh because the Labor vision thing is good.
That loss needs to happen. It ought to happen. And what it is applied to needs to happen and it ought to happen.
Somewhere along the way, as a nation, we have assumed that it is all about greedy winner take all and fuck the rest of youse.
We were better than that once.
And, IMO, that is what this election is about.
Becoming, in small steps and in some small degree, better than that once more.
Newspoll tomorrow? Me 52/48
I’d say 52/48 to our great LNP
Good night all. Sweet dreams.