Odds and sods: week three

Betting market continue to favour Labor – but Monday’s Newspoll narrowing seems to have prompted movement to the Coalition, who have gained favouritism in three of their own marginals and one of Labor’s.

First up, a new uComms/ReachTEL seat poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a 51-49 lead in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, which Labor’s Justine Keay won by 2.2% in 2016 and 2.3% in the Super Saturday by-election last September. Excluding the 4.5% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 35.1%, Liberal 40.0%, Nationals 3.7%, Greens 6.6% and United Australia Party 5.5%, which sounds consistent enough with the two-party headline. As per ReachTEL’s usual format, there was a forced response follow-up for the undecided – The Mercury reports 23.7% of them favoured Labor and 21.1% Liberal. The poll was conducted Monday night from a sample of 861. The same client and the same pollster produced a 54-46 lead for the Liberals in Bass at the start of the campaign, which most observers would have rated excessive.

Second, please note the post below dedicated to the seat of Gilmore – the first in a series of seat-related posts I will be unrolling every day from now until the big day.

Now to the the state of the betting markets. I can’t claim to be the internet’s best resource on this particular issue, as that title belongs to Mark the Ballot, whose reading of the collective market’s implied probability of a Coalition win leapt from 25.3% to 29.2% in the immediate wake of Monday’s Newspoll. I’m only following Ladbrokes, which had Labor on $1.25 and the Coalition on $3.90 a week ago; moved to Labor $1.35 and Coalition $3.15 after Newspoll; and has since moved back slightly to Labor, at $1.32 to the Coalition’s $3.30.

Ladbrokes’ seat odds (which are listed on the bottom right of each page on the electorate guide) now has Labor as favourites in 85 seats, down from 89 last week, with the Coalition up from 58 to 61. The Coalition are now favourites in Banks ($2.25 to $1.77, with Labor going from $1.62 to $2.00), Capricornia ($2.50 to $1.83, Labor from $1.57 to $1.91), Herbert ($2.50 to $1.65, Labor from $1.57 to $2.20) and Page ($1.90 to $1.80, Labor the other way round). However, independent Kevin Mack is now favoured in Farrer ($2.00 to $1.50, the Nationals from $1.70 to $2.20), making him one of six non-major party candidates to be rated favourites. Not among their number are Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth, who has slipped from $2.30 to $3.25 with the Liberals in from $1.57 to $1.33, or Zali Steggall in Warringah.

The Liberals have also been slashed from $6.50 to $2.80 in Corangamite, with Labor out from $1.10 to $1.40, and the market seems to have noticed the frequency of leaders’ visits to the Northern Territory, with Labor out from $1.18 to $1.50 in Solomon and the Country Liberals in from $4.00 to $2.40. However, Labor’s odds have shortened in Reid ($1.27 to $1.22, Liberals from $3.25 to $4.00) and La Trobe ($1.53 to $1.40, Liberals from $2.40 to $3.00).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

984 comments on “Odds and sods: week three”

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  2. I went to Kmart Firle today. I happened to look on the back of the docket, to see a photo of a grinning Nick Xenophon! Yesterday’s man of Australian politics is back where it all started, with the Shop a Docket proclaiming: “Been in an accident? Better call Nick!”. And “First Consult Free. No win no fee.” I felt quite sad for him, but perhaps it what he likes doing best.

  3. Rational Leftist @ #499 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 5:48 pm

    As I said earlier, I want to know what Mr. Creasey’s current (not just post-preselection) attitudes towards that kind of “edginess” is, not what it was seven years ago. If that was a phase he has grown out of, then I am not that worried about them. If it’s still reflective of who he is, then we have a problem.

    We all have, in the past, gone through phrases that we now cringe over. And for many, it includes being an edgelord online. However, growing and becoming better is what is important, not being perfect from the start.

    And lest the Greens who are milking this desperately try to hit me with some half-baked whataboutism on the topic, I can promise you I know plenty of serious members of the Greens who were absolute fuckwits, seven years ago but have grown out of it (either through ageing or becoming more socially aware.) I can assure you my view remains the same if and when one of yours gets called out – I wonder if you can say the same.

    It’s apropos of nothing, of course, Bandt’s going to win Melbourne again.

    He has recanted and apologised. It’s out there in the media. So, at the end of the day it will give him a profile and not hurt Labor at all.

    Cheers.

  4. ” “Firefox – what is the benefit of the Greens talking about what Labor should do as opposed to promoting the policies of the Greens.”

    They do all the time. If you follow the Greens on Facebook etc you’ll see they’re constantly posting their own policies and ideas. You’ll also see the constant stream of abuse from the far right that they have to put up with, especially if you check out Sarah Hanson-Young’s page. They absolutely despise her. You Labor folks can be a bit ratty sometimes but you’re not anywhere near as bad as them.”

    Firefox – I’m asking a Q about Greens strategy. Not as a “Labor folk” but because I’m concerned about Greens and Labor people behaving in ways which help the right/Murdoch etc and get ordinary people scratching their heads.

  5. Given I use my real name here, Rex, Nath and Michael can get to work and trawl through my online history if they wish!
    ________________
    I have no desire to Steve. After finding out how young Creasey is and was when he made those comments I think it makes a difference. Unfortunately for him, it will be brought up whenever he makes a move into politics. But I certainly think that teenagers shouldn’t be condemned. It is an age when you push boundaries and say things you regret later.

  8. AEC
    @AusElectoralCom
    ·
    7h
    Almost 250,000 people have cast their vote at an early voting centre after two days of early voting. This figure was around 145,000 votes at the same stage of the 2016 federal election. #ausvotes


  9. Matt31 says:
    Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 5:28 pm
    ..
    the Greens plus the two Liberals who crossed the floor could’ve got legislation, but it failed the Greens purity test.

    That is exactly how I saw it. That day the Greens delayed action on climate change for 10 years. They have the numbers to stuff things up; they don’t have the numbers to make action stick.

    Very unfortunate it has turned out that way, as they have some good senators, but shitty leadership.

  10. After finding out how young Creasey is and was when he made those comments I think it makes a difference. Unfortunately for him, it will be brought up whenever he makes a move into politics. But I certainly think that teenagers shouldn’t be condemned. It is an age when you push boundaries and say things you regret later.

    Yep. However, for the MSM, this isnt about Creasey.

  11. Re: Liberal Candidate in Willis. This was their 2nd candidate and chosen at the last minute. The first went under S44 bus. So there wasn’t much time for a background check. Just a “loyal” member who was willing to stand in an unwinnable seat.

    It also shows the disarray that the Victorian branch of the Liberals are in at head office. The senior officeholders all went after the state election disaster. In hindsight, they probably should have hung around until post federal election.

  13. And for those who don’t know what Edgelord means:

    What is an Edgelord?
    The term “edgelord,” is a noun, which came from the previous adjective, “edgy,” which described the above behaviour. With “edgy” in turn being. (entertainment, advertising) on the edge between acceptable and offensive; pushing the boundaries of good taste; risqué (slang) Cool by virtue of being tough, dark, or badass.

  18. Oh well, I guess their own incompetence wrt asylum seeker policy and Climate Change policy, has given The Greens something to whine about for 10 years as they constantly relitigate it.

  19. My main criticism of the Greens is that they seem to be unable to admit that they have made some bad political mistakes in the past and are resolved not to do so again.

    Labor has certainly admitted to such things and I’m pretty sure the coalition has as well. It is a sign of a political party that is prepared to learn from those it seeks to represent.

    The famous quote by Karl Marx is relevant: “The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it.” Unfortunately the Greens in Australia seem to be stuck at the “philosopher” stage at the moment. Many of their overseas counterparts have advanced beyond that point – we can only hope the the Australian Greens will also at some point.

  20. Of course the ABC manages somehow to frame the candidates issue to favour the LNP.

    Scott Morrison is taking decisive action in warning the Libs they have to take greater care in selecting candidates, while Bill Shorten is made to sound dodgy and defensive in claiming he never met some candidate that he did in fact meet.

  23. Even though newly announced entrants into the Democratic Party presidential primary usually get a ‘bounce’ I am amzaed that Biden is so far ahead on four new polls released overnight.

    Average of four polls (CNN, HarrisX, Morning Consult, Quinnipiac)

    Biden 36.5
    Sanders 16
    Warren 9

    It’s funny how I am no longer seeing all those “The frontrunner is clearly going to be the nominee, so bend the knee NOW!” posts that littered this place up until a couple of weeks ago.

    Good to see Warren’s stock rise. I am actually very impressed by the stuff she’s proposing. So far hers has been the most substantive of all the platforms. If she doesn’t get the nomination, I do hope her policies have a strong influence on the platform of whoever does.

  25. And when I say whoever, there’s a more-than-good chance it’ll be Biden, TBH. A Vice President who was attached to an administration fondly and nostalgically remembered by Democrats (especially compared to the current administration) would be a very hard figure to beat in the primaries.

    (He is not, by any means my top choice – just acknowledging reality)

  26. Rational Leftist

    Warren is interesting – a former Republican. Nate Silver seems to think she could end up being in the final round of ‘playoffs’ (for want of a better word) for the Democrats.

    Personally I can’t see Biden winning, but I am glad to see as many people throw their hat in the ring as possible. No-one can say there is a lack of choice!

  27. I’ve updated BludgerTrack, with state as well as federal data. The move back to the Coalition in New South Wales is now less severe (hence more plausible), but it’s been replaced by one in Western Australia, where Labor is now projected to gain only one seat. I really need more data though to have any confidence about the smaller states. Hopefully Newspoll will publish some soon.
    https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/

  29. It’s very obvious that whatever made her a Republican in the past is well gone. Her platform is definitely one of the most left-leaning – and has the added bonus of having actual substantial details and arguments.

  30. ‘Kelly O’Dwyer has told colleagues the Liberals are widely regarded as “homophobic, anti-women, climate-change deniers”…’

    I think we can now remove the ‘widely regarded as’ from this quote.

  32. She is really Anti-Men is she ?

    Most likely not. Regardless of what you think of her, that’s a typical straw man used by pathetic MRAs. Plenty of more legitimate stuff to oppose her on than that, if you must.

  34. Rational Leftist

    I think the Democrats will flip the Senate and increase their House majority.

    But I have not written off Trump – I still give him a roughly 50/50 chance of winning (provided he is still eligible to run etc)

    It would be a missed opportunity for the Democrats to not gain the Presidency if they have both houses of Congress, especially when they seem to have a more progressive social agenda.

    Trump is a bit over 2.00 in most betting, so 40-45% chance.

  35. If Biden is the candidate he will need a young, black/hispanic vp candidate

    e.g. Harris, Booker or Castro

    I’d add female to that. Both as a signal that 2016 didn’t shut a door and also to balance out Biden’s more… problematic… perceptions.

    Although, let’s wait until there’s actually a presumptive nominee next year before discussing potential VPs.

  39. Please explain…..

    A tearful Pauline Hanson has told A Current Affair that choosing a bankrupt, a crazy conspiracy theorist, a homophobe, a drunk racist and an actual Nazi to join your party could happen to anyone.

    “Other than personally choosing and approving the candidates, I’ve got nothing to do with this at all. I don’t know how I could’ve avoided it – it’s a terrible run of bad luck,” Ms Hanson said.

    That has to be the quote of the election.. moron, not even Trump can match it.

  40. Just had a look at the CH7 and CH9 news, their political reporting comes across much fairer than ABC these days, the funny thing is they are being done by former ABC reporters too.

  42. Rocket Rocket, I do hope so. One thing that concerns me is the Senate, being the state’s house is a hard climb now, especially considering that a lot of the rural red states are digging in and not even entertaining Democrats anymore. Florida also concerns me with how much it’s been unresponsive to any backlash against Trump and the far right (although I hear some of that is because the organisational skills of the current Florida Democratic Party is dismal)

    I definitely haven’t written Trump off. Presidents get re-elected way more often than they don’t and he still has a hard, dedicated base. Also, the opposition isn’t exactly united, despite the talks of unity and synthesis from current candidates. However, the best thing going for the Dems in 2020 (this isn’t my line, I read it online) is that the question “How bad could he be?” will be answered this time.

  43. Thinking of the ‘missing’ Coalition Government ministers – has Environment Minister Melissa Price been sighted during the campaign?

    Maybe we need to go to her electorate office and set up some of those cameras with motion sensors that scientists use to try and photograph rare and endangered species!

  44. Nicko

    I can say that channel nine newsMelbourne most definitely better than the ABC. I suspect commercially they know what audience they are pitching to

  46. Nicko @ #540 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 6:23 pm

    Just had a look at the CH7 and CH9 news, their political reporting comes across much fairer than ABC these days, the funny thing is they are being done by former ABC reporters too.

    The ABC’s political reporting has really left the reservation this election.

    And if the LNP manage to get back in, they’ll be whining about the inevitable budget cuts etc etc, and expecting our support.

  48. Oh my goodness. Saw a new scare mongering ad from the fiberals on channel nine right now.

    Still waiting for labor to show something substantial.

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