Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The debut reading for Clive Palmer’s party in a national Newspoll result is 5%. Two-party preferred status: it’s complicated.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records both parties down on the primary vote, the Coalition by one to 38% and Labor by two to 37%, making room for the debut appearance of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 5%. The Greens and One Nation are both unchanged, at 9% and 4% respectively. The two-party preferred headline moves a point in favour of the Coalition, from 52-48 to 51-49 – a lot more on that shortly.

Movements on personal ratings are slightly to Bill Shorten’s favour – he is up two on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 51%, and his 45-37 deficit on preferred prime minister is an improvement on his 46-35 in the last poll. Scott Morrison is steady on approval at 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Respondents were also asked which leader they most trusted to keep their campaign promises, with Morrison very slightly favoured over Shorten by 41% to 38%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with Thursday dropped from the usual field work period because of the public holiday, from a larger than usual sample of 2136, the norm being around 1700.

Beyond that, there is a good deal to unpack. This is the first time a result for the United Australia Party has been published, but the tables in The Australian today reveal the party was on 3% in the poll a fortnight ago, and 2% in the poll the week before that. As Peter Brent discusses in Inside Story, pollsters have an important decision to make in deciding whether to include a minor party in the primary question, or saving it for those who choose “other” out of an initial list – a decision that will have a bearing on their result. I assume the publication of the UAP result in the latest poll marks its elevation from the second tier to the first, but the publication of the earlier results may suggest otherwise.

Then there’s the two-party preferred, which raised eyebrows as the primary votes are of a kind that would normally be associated with 52-48. The answer, it turns out, is that a preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition is being applied to the UAP vote. The rationale is explained in an accompanying piece by David Briggs, managing director of YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. First, Briggs confirms this is also what it has been doing with One Nation preferences since the start of last year, earlier statements having been less exact. Of the decision to extend this to Palmer:

With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was ­directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.

In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell — its how-to-vote cards are preserved here). I don’t believe this arose from a deal as such, and it didn’t seem to attract any publicity at that time. However, the fact remains that every Palmer United voter who followed the card ended up in the Coalition’s two-party preferred tally, which is no different from the situation at the election to come.

Briggs also points to the party breakdowns from the aforementioned question on leader most trusted to deliver on campaign promises, which found Morrison to be favoured 53-13 among UAP voters – a significant lead, even accounting for the fact that there would only have been around 100 UAP voters out of the poll sample.

The Newspoll preference split may well be vindicated in time, but for now it’s merely a hypothesis. The dynamics of Palmer’s preferences could actually prove rather complex, if the Western Australian election of 2017 is any guide. The Liberals cut a deal with One Nation in that campaign, and they indeed got a bigger cut of their preferences, from the roughly 50-50 split of the 2016 election (out of the 15 lower house seats the party contested) to 60.6%.

However, this may have had less to do with how-to-vote cards than the backlash One Nation suffered as a result of the deal, which the polls of the time indicated had cost them as much as a third of their existing support – presumably among the kind of voter most likely to preference Labor. Since the Liberals were tainted by the deal as well, nobody doubts that it backfired on them, despite its “success” in delivering a higher share of preferences from a diminished One Nation.

As Labor prepares a rhetorical onslaught against Scott Morrison over the Clive Palmer deal, we may well be about to see a similar dynamic play out federally. However, this too is merely a hypothesis. The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes right now unavoidably involves an uncomfortable amount of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has made almost no difference to it.

The table below compares the results from Newspoll model with two alternative approaches that might have been taken. The results are imprecise in that they rely on the rounded primary votes published by Newspoll, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives Labor 51.4%, suggesting the headline figure was likely rounded in their favour. The next two columns along, under “Past election: A”, apply UAP preferences using Palmer United’s 53.7-46.3 split from 2013, and One Nation’s using the almost 50-50 split from 2016. The last two columns, “Past election: B”, are how it would go if the UAP was treated as just another component of “others”, and thus given the almost 50-50 split such votes followed in 2016.

Newspoll method Past election: A Past election: B
  L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP
Primary 38 37 38 37 38 37
Greens 1.6 7.4 1.6 7.4 1.6 7.4
UAP 3.0 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.5
One Nation 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Others 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4
TOTAL 48.6 51.4 47.9 52.1 47.7 52.3

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,496 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 30
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  2. I don’t know why Kervales and others of her ilk even bother pretending that they’re real journalists….why don’t they just wear sandwich boards with I Hate The Labor Party on one side and I Love The Liberal Party on the other and be done with it.

    The anti Labor thing is getting ramped up incrementally, 2 weeks from now it’ll be deafening….

  3. ‘Is there anywhere I can watch the debate online?’

    No but I can offer you a shovel and you can hit yourself over the head with it, it’d be less painful…..

  5. Alex turnbull providing sgae advice to someone.

    Alex Turnbull
    ‏

    @alexbhturnbull
    Following Following @alexbhturnbull
    More
    Replying to @Pollytics @GrogsGamut
    Whoever did this should start doing the reading now

    https://t.co/PepNxtMLs9

  6. I always find it funny that the Left get up in arms with the LNP preference deals from people that they correctly consider extremists and yet are happy to accept the preferences from the anti-human progress neo-marxist ecofascist extremists of the Greens.

    The easiest game in the book is to simply burn a party who doesn’t do a preference deal by finding some ideological point of difference after the fact.

    For example, how could the ALP justify being on the side of Climate Change Action in 2010 when preferencing the Greens second in most seats nationwide. That same party voted against the ALP in the senate when the bill was presented for an ETS. Pretty hard to stomach a party which supposedly cares so much for catastrophic climate change that would do that.

    The truth is that the ALP didn’t bother justifying it. Would Machiavelli have justified it? No point, a means to an end.

    In the same way, there is little love lost with the LNP and the Rotund One, but Scomo the pragmatist has secured the deal and not bothered to justify it.

    It sticks in my neck that someone like CP is able to game our democracy but not much we can do about it.

  11. I’m just wondering if Shorten wants to rollback his “Top End of Town” sledging after partying with Twiggy and getting $2,000 a seat for it. No? I wonder how the Pratt’s feel about his attitude towards them these days?

  13. ” Is there a debate on tonight? If so where and when?

    7Two at 7.30pm”

    7 pm on the East Coast according to my guide.

  14. I think I’ll give the debate a skip. I used to watch these things but nowadays I can’t stomach any political tv – insiders, q&a etc are all poison to me. And we all know this debate isn’t going to change anyone’s minds

  16. Bucephalus @ #784 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 4:27 pm

    I always find it funny that the Left get up in arms with the LNP preference deals from people that they correctly consider extremists and yet are happy to accept the preferences from the anti-human progress neo-marxist ecofascist extremists of the Greens.

    Anyone seen Bucephalus and briefly in the same room …?

  17. Guarantee that, unless there’s an embarrassing gaffe by Shorten in the debate that can be used as a soundbite to be played over and over again, the debate will make sweet f a difference.

  18. Seriously, Kervales reckons people from the Liberal party she’s spoken to can’t believe Labor hasn’t been running on the 6 years of chaos theme, because, that’s what they would have done.

    FMD

    It’s possible Labor just doesn’t have the killer instinct or doesn’t really want to win.
    Of course it’s possible the people running Labor’s campaign are actually Liberal moles. That would go some to explaing how crap the ALPs campaign has been so far…

  19. @KK

    I’m just wondering if @ScottMorrisonMP, who criticises @billshortenmp for running in public view, has read Matthew 6:5-6: “When you pray, don’t be like the hypocrites. They love to stand in the synagogues and on the street corners and pray so people will see them.” #auspol 

    “When you pray, you should go into your room and close the door and pray to your Father who cannot be seen. Your Father can see what is done in secret, and he will reward you.” – From the Gospel according to Matthew, Chap 6, verses 5 &6

  20. Bucephalus @ #806 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 4:38 pm

    I’m just wondering if Shorten wants to rollback his “Top End of Town” sledging after partying with Twiggy and getting $2,000 a seat for it. No? I wonder how the Pratt’s feel about his attitude towards them these days?

    As long as they do the right thing by the country and the people they employ, I’m sure Bill is fine with them. Like any good national leader should be. 🙂

  25. mundo @ #813 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 4:43 pm

    Seriously, Kervales reckons people from the Liberal party she’s spoken to can’t believe Labor hasn’t been running on the 6 years of chaos theme, because, that’s what they would have done.

    FMD

    It’s possible Labor just doesn’t have the killer instinct or doesn’t really want to win.
    Of course it’s possible the people running Labor’s campaign are actually Liberal moles. That would go some to explaing how crap the ALPs campaign has been so far…

    mundo, are you going to spend all day, every day, for the next 3 weeks pissing all over the Labor Party here? Thank goodness you are only some numpty on a politics blog and not a national leader, otherwise you’d have everyone running to find the nearest cliff to jump off!

  26. I voted today in Forde. ALP got my vote and I voted below the line ALP and Greens for the senate. Most of the punters voting were white hot angry with the deal between Palmer and the Libs. It’s gonna cost Clive a shit load of votes. I’m predicting a comfortable ALP victory on May 18.

  27. mundo @ #813 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 4:43 pm

    Seriously, Kervales reckons people from the Liberal party she’s spoken to can’t believe Labor hasn’t been running on the 6 years of chaos theme, because, that’s what they would have done.

    FMD

    It’s possible Labor just doesn’t have the killer instinct or doesn’t really want to win.
    Of course it’s possible the people running Labor’s campaign are actually Liberal moles. That would go some to explaing how crap the ALPs campaign has been so far…

    Finally one to agree with. Labor needs a strong pivot to chaos (where’s Malcolm?), corruption (so many things to choose from, I hope someone has been keeping a list!), and “Federal ICAC now!”. But it doesn’t need to start until the 4th. Or possibly even the 7th. A strong pivot can be sustained for two weeks, maximum.

  28. The ALP talking about 6 years of chaos just looks ridiculous after the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years so they should be thankful that the public isn’t constantly reminded of just how truly bad the ALP can be.

  30. Mick @ #818 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 4:47 pm

    I voted today in Forde. ALP got my vote and I voted below the line ALP and Greens for the senate. Most of the punters voting were white hot angry with the deal between Palmer and the Libs. It’s gonna cost Clive a shit load of votes. I’m predicting a comfortable ALP victory on May 18.

    Gotta say I agree the preference deal will backfire on Clive.

    A lot of those protesting L/NP voters who considered Clive will look somewhere else to park their vote.

  31. GetUp! are far more progressive than the ALP.

    What’s more, GetUp! are macroeconomically literate. They realize that the Australian Government is constrained by real resource availability and ecological limits, not finance.

    As GetUp! says about currency-issuing governments that buy goods and services available for sale in their own currencies:

    Deficits only become a problem for governments when the economy is approaching its productive limits. At that point, injecting further money into the economy without other checks, such as a robust progressive tax system, risks inflation. Inflation, not revenue, is the real constraint on government spending. But Australia is a long way off reaching our productive capacity. Investing in a more generous social wage will benefit of all of us.

    https://futuretofightfor.org.au/policies/how-to-pay/

    The evidence that the Australian macroeconomy is a long way short of full capacity utilization is that there are 700,000 unemployed Australians, 1.1 million under-employed Australians, and 900,000 hidden unemployed Australians.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6226.0Main+Features1February%202018?OpenDocument

  32. a r

    Stability in opposition means SFA. The current ALP Leadership rules can be overridden by a Caucus Vote. When the PMship is available then the sh!t gets real – as we have seen from both sides for the last 12 years.

  33. Bucephalus @ #820 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 4:48 pm

    The ALP talking about 6 years of chaos just looks ridiculous after the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years so they should be thankful that the public isn’t constantly reminded of just how truly bad the ALP can be.

    Fair point. We’ve had 9 yrs of utter shite from Lib-Lab.

  35. AR

    ‘Labor needs a strong pivot to chaos (where’s Malcolm?), ‘

    Turnbull doesn’t even appear on those ads thay run with the Dutton, Abbott, Morrison heads…go figure. Is the ALP too polite or something.

    What do you think C@tmurmer? Any constructive critique or are you just going to spend everyday of the next 6 weeks pissing in the ALPs pocket?

  36. Bucephalus @ #823 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 4:48 pm

    The ALP talking about 6 years of chaos just looks ridiculous after the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years so they should be thankful that the public isn’t constantly reminded of just how truly bad the ALP can be.

    Only how the Coalition can be worse. Honestly, you can take this back to your masters at Liberal HQ, Cranky, but someone said to me today at the Pre Poll that they couldn’t believe how, after the Liberals made such a big deal about the Labor leadership chaos, that they just couldn’t help themselves and do it too!

  37. Oh, Mother of Dog, Modern Monetary Theory has infested The Poll Bludger as well.

    Germany
    Zimbabwe
    Venezuela

    All fine exponents of MMT.

  38. “Except that they’ve been stable since then. They can credibly say that they’ve learned their lesson.”

    I think they have learned their lesson too but people don’t really care if an opposition changes leaders or keeps one for years. Leadership changes in opposition are expected and reasonable. We’ll only know Labor have learned their lesson once they’ve gone through a full term in government without changing leaders. Thanks mostly to the changes to leadership challenges that Rudd introduced, assuming that they make it into government of course, I’d say it’s highly likely that Shorten will remain leader for the full term.

  39. mundo @ #830 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 4:59 pm

    AR

    ‘Labor needs a strong pivot to chaos (where’s Malcolm?), ‘

    Turnbull doesn’t even appear on those ads thay run with the Dutton, Abbott, Morrison heads…go figure. Is the ALP too polite or something.

    What do you think C@tmurmer? Any constructive critique or are you just going everyday of the next 6 weeks pissing in the ALPs pocket?

    I’m certainly doing more than you ever will to try to get an ALP victory on May 18.

  40. Yeah the ALP needs to prove, in government, that they’re past the leadership drama, not in opposition. I don’t see any mileage of them hammering the Coalition’s leadership merry-go-round because the obvious and predictable commentary would be that Labor have no high ground on this one.

  41. Bucephalus @ #832 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 4:56 pm

    Stability in opposition means SFA.

    Tell that to Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull, Mk 1, back in 2009. 🙂

    The current ALP Leadership rules can be overridden by a Caucus Vote.

    I think most people tune out before getting to that level of nuance. “6 years of stability” is the thing they’ll hear.

  42. “Except that they’ve been stable since then. They can credibly say that they’ve learned their lesson.”

    Yup, and it seems that the ALP have made a decision to, as much as possible, run a basically positive campaign.

  43. ‘Fair point. We’ve had 9 yrs of utter shite from Lib-Lab.’

    Rudd and especially Gillard actually ran very effective administrations.
    You must have been asleep.

  44. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 4:59 pm

    “someone said to me today at the Pre Poll that they couldn’t believe how, after the Liberals made such a big deal about the Labor leadership chaos, that they just couldn’t help themselves and do it too!”

    Completely agree and 100% of the blame goes to the dilettante Turnbull for that.

  46. imacca @ #837 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 5:01 pm

    “Except that they’ve been stable since then. They can credibly say that they’ve learned their lesson.”

    Yup, and it seems that the ALP have made a decision to, as much as possible, run a basically positive campaign.

    Yep. Because everyone has a phone. Also, the media are just waiting to pounce on the slightest evidence of anger.

  47. ‘run a basically positive campaign.’

    Yes, with a lovely little knitted tea cosy on top and some dainty little scones with cream and jam for later. Sheesh.

  50. zoomster says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 4:36 pm
    ‘This is useful for avoiding the scrutiny of the AEC and avoiding being labelled as a political organisation.’

    Wow, they failed big time, then.

    The AEC scrutinised them and found they weren’t a political organisation…

    Zoomster… er I am not sure you read things carefully enough.
    Yep, the AEC found they WEREN’T a political organisation so, yeah they succeeded, not failed. By spreading their support along issue rather than party lines, then they could avoid the regulations required of ‘true’ political organisations, along with the accountability.

    So they managed to slip through and be the amoral creeps that they continue to be.

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